Frequency of price increases and perceived inflation. An experimental investigation

The effect of frequency of subjective experience of price increases on perceived inflation, i.e. the subjective experience of general price development, is investigated. The paper presents a two-phased psychological model of perceived inflation: first, information about product price increases is gathered in daily purchase. Second, these are integrated into one perceived inflation judgment. In the integration phase, the complexity of the task should trigger heuristic processing: higher frequency of price increases should enhance their availability and thus perceived inflation. Participants simulated purchases in two scenarios. Frequency of products with increased prices was varied while overall expenditure increases as well as relative price increase of individual products were balanced. Experiment 1 presented a high frequency condition with a majority of increased prices relative to previously learned reference prices and a low frequency condition with a majority of stable prices. Experiment 2 balanced cognitive effort for product price change estimation over conditions by replacing absolutely stable prices with slightly increased prices. As predicted, perceived inflation was higher with high frequencies of increased prices, while price increases of individual products were judged correctly. Experiment 3 ruled out the alternative hypothesis that presentation duration, which in the previous experiments correlated with presentation frequency, might have been the determining factor.     

Transmission of World Prices to Ugandan Coffee Growers in a Liberalised Economy

This article examines the transmission of world coffee prices to the price received by Ugandan coffee growers by means of Directed Acyclic Graphs which reveal the flow of information from the spot indicator price to the London futures price and then to the growers' price. A positive shock in the futures and indicator prices has respectively a positive and negative effect on the growers' price, and Forecast Error Variance Decomposition shows that uncertainty is attributable to own price, London futures price, and indicator price, in rank order. The article recommends that the Ugandan Coffee Development Authority should provide information on both futures and indicator prices to the growers.     

新经济社会学的价格理论论析

新经济社会学指出社会网络制约价格,价格是社会建构的产物,企业定价遵从产业内部已有的定价规则,而且价格具有多方面的象征含意。这些价格观点受到新经济社会学理论流派分隔的影响,并未融于一个完整的体系之中,彼此间相互区隔。社会建构主义的价格观、组织社会学的新制度主义的价格观有助于我们认识大宗商品的期货交易价格和新兴产业中定价体系的扩散。文化社会学的价格观认为价格呈现了商品的质量,还呈现了与商品有关的行动者的社会特征。这种定价观更适用于分析时装和奢侈品等消费品、艺术品以及所谓无价物品的定价问题。结构经济社会学家与经济学家在价格问题上进行了更密切的对话,致力于从嵌入性角度关注信任和互惠的期待等治理安排、信息的分布与传递,以此来把握交易成本和生产成本的变动。新经济社会学的各种价格理论有别于经济学的价格理论的共同之处在于:都强调引起商品价格变动的社会因素,力图修正或拓展经济学的价格理论。     

THE INCENTIVES FOR RESALE PRICE MAINTENANCE UNDER IMPERFECT INFORMATION

This paper considers both the incentives for and the welfare effects of resale price maintenance (RPM) in retail markets characterized by imperfect consumer information. In markets where point-of-sale information on the product is essential for sales and information on prices is costly, RPM permits manufacturers with some monopoly power to resolve two incentive conflicts with retailers. First, because retailers with price-setting powers do not appropriate the gains in profit to an upstream manufacturer from actions taken to increase demand, their incentives to inform consumers of the product and to set low prices are inadequate. This purely vertical externality results in the classic "double mark-up" of final prices. Second, when consumers' costs of price search vary, stores offering low prices and no information can exist in the market equilibrium. These discount houses free-ride on the informational services of high-price informing retail outlets — a horizontal externality. In the imperfect information setting of this paper, (1) administered pricing improves monopolists' profits by resolving the incentive conflict; (2) the profitable use of a price floor reduces the maximum retail price charged and may reduce the average retail price; (3) price floors or administered prices can be Pareto-improving and more likely welfare (surplus)-improving; (4) price floors are welfare-improving.     

Determinants of buyers' aspiration and reservation price

Previous research has suggested that an initial offer or an estimated market price is adopted as cognitive reference point in a price negotiation. In contrast, in an experiment with 24 psychology and 24 business administration students playing the role of buyers of condominiums, it was found that subjects adopted their reservation price as a reference point although it was influenced by an estimated market price. In a second and third experiment with a total of 32 psychology and 75 business administration students, a close correspondence was also observed between buyers' indicated aspiration prices and their estimates of sellers' reservation prices in that both were similarly affected by an estimated market price. In choosing an aspiration price, buyers may attempt to infer how the sellers' reservation price changes with an estimated market price.     

THE IMPORTANCE OF TRADE COSTS IN DEVIATIONS FROM THE LAW‐OF‐ONE‐PRICE: ESTIMATES BASED ON THE DIRECTION OF TRADE

The full impact of trade costs in segmenting product markets cannot be captured by considering aggregate prices or in the absence of information on the direction of trade. We address this problem by utilizing product‐specific prices, cross‐sectional productivity indices, and bilateral trade flows, allowing us to identify the probable source of any one product. We show that trade costs in the form of transportation and distribution costs are important in determining international price differences and segmenting international markets. Physical distance relative to the origin has a precisely estimated positive impact on international deviations from the Law‐of‐One‐Price that is larger than estimates that do not account for the origin of each product. Based on our benchmark estimates, the price elasticity of distance was around 10% in 1990. (JEL F4)     

Symbolic meanings of prices: Constructing the value of contemporary art in Amsterdam and New York galleries

This article develops a sociological analysis of the price mechanism on the market for contemporary art. On the basis of in-depth interviews with art dealers in New York and Amsterdam, I address two pricing norms: one norm inhibits art dealers from decreasing prices; the other induces them to set prices according to size. To account for these pricing norms, I argue that price setting is not just an economic but also a signifying act: despite their impersonal, businesslike connotations, actors on markets manage to express a range of cognitive and cultural meanings through prices. Previously, meanings of prices have been recognized in signaling theories within economics. However, these meanings are restricted to profit opportunities. Within the humanities, by contrast, meanings of prices are restricted to contaminating or corrosive meanings. The sociological perspective I develop claims that prices, price differences, and price changes convey multiple meanings related to the reputation of artists, the social status of dealers, and the quality of the artworks that are traded.     

RELATIVE PRICE DISPERSION, AGGREGATE PRICE MOVEMENT, AND THE NATURAL RATE OF UNEMPLOYMENT

This paper develops a model of relative price stickiness and examines its implications for the relationship between relative prices, inflation, and the natural rate of unemployment. Estimation of the model demonstrates that causality in the relationship between relative and aggregate prices runs in both directions. However, microeconomic disturbances have been the primary source of relative price change variance over the postwar period, and these micro disturbances have exerted a strong effect on inflation in the short run. It also is shown that micro relative price change dispersion has had a significant influence on the natural rate of unemployment.     

Do Fair Trade Pricing Policies Reduce Inequalities in Coffee Production and Trade?

This article assesses the Fair Trade pricing model for coffee, investigating the ability of minimum prices and a social premium to reduce price risk and remedy inequalities. It highlights some of the challenges involved in controlling prices. Inequalities exist among Fair Trade‐certified farmers; some are poorer than others, and the poorer ones typically produce less coffee. If Fair Trade succeeds in its aim of raising the prices received by farmers, this will benefit more those farmers producing greater volumes of coffee and who are typically less vulnerable. In addressing inequalities, the Fair Trade social premium is superior to minimum prices.     

Consumers' subjective perception of price in times of inflation

This article suggests that inflation blurs the information content of prices, affecting consumers' subjective perception of prices. Preliminary evidence is provided by examining consumers' upper and lower price limits—concepts closely related to price quality perceptions—under extreme inflationary conditions taking place in Israel in 1980. The findings indicate that lower price limit distributions exhibit consistently greater dispersion across three income groups and the overall sample, compared to upper price limits. This effect is attributed to consumers' greater difficulties to provide lower price limits which are based solely on quality judgements, compared to upper limit responses which are partly anchored in more clearly defined budget constraints.     

FORECASTING WITH SOCIAL MEDIA: EVIDENCE FROM TWEETS ON SOCCER MATCHES

Social media is now used as a forecasting tool by a variety of firms and agencies. But how useful are such data in forecasting outcomes? Can social media add any information to that produced by a prediction/betting market? We source 13.8 million posts from Twitter, and combine them with contemporaneous Betfair betting prices, to forecast the outcomes of English Premier League soccer matches as they unfold. Using a microblogging dictionary to analyze the content of Tweets, we find that the aggregate tone of Tweets contains significant information not in betting prices, particularly in the immediate aftermath of goals and red cards. (JEL G14, G17)     

ADVERTISING AND PRODUCT QUALITY IN POSTED-OFFER EXPERIMENTS

Sellers selected both price and quality but buyers had limited information about those choices in the experiments reported here. Market efficiency was high under full information with truthful advertising of prices and qualities, but was much lower with no advertising of price or quality. Efficiency did not improve when sellers were permitted to advertise price, but not quality, and in half of these experiments "lemons" outcomes occurred. Although the range of outcomes is great, it cannot be claimed that price advertising improves efficiency when quality is unknown.     

Price perception and confirmation bias in the context of a VAT increase

This paper examines a potential confirmation bias in price perception in consequence to a real-world event and different explanations for such a confirmation bias. In a panel design conducted 2 months before and after a raise in value-added tax (VAT), 303 participants had to estimate the current prices for four products affected and four products not affected by this raise in VAT and the anticipated or recalled prices of these products. Before the VAT increase, an undifferentiated belief in strong future price increases was prevalent. After the VAT increase, a confirmation bias was found: in retrospect, participants reported price increases that were significantly higher than the official price development and in line with an undifferentiated belief in marked price increases. Two theoretical explanations for confirmation bias, i.e., the biased use of price information and the selective distortion of memory, fit the data.     

Strategies of valuation: repertoires of worth at the financial margins

This article draws upon thirteen months of ethnographic research in a Chicago pawnshop to show how prices of objects in pawnshops are actively, socially negotiated using what I term discursive strategies of valuation. Three kinds of discursive strategies of valuation emerge repeatedly in the data: a. references to the specific material attributes of the objects, b. references to the unique biographical histories of the objects, c. reference to the financial need and (relative) social positioning of the customer involved in the negotiation. Examining these strategies reveals the relationship between socially contingent and culturally constructed perceptions of value and the production of price. I find that rhetorical strategies can and do affect price, within limits. Perhaps most surprisingly, the data show that discursive strategies emphasizing a lower socio-economic status can inflate the value, and ultimately the price, of an object during negotiations.     

PRICE MATCHING AND THE DOMINO EFFECT IN A RETAIL GASOLINE MARKET

Using gasoline station price data collected eight times per day for 103 d for 27 stations in Guelph, Ontario, it is found that, consistent with an informal theory of competitive gasoline pricing, stations set prices to match a small number of other stations. However, these matched stations are not necessarily the closest. While retailers frequently respond to price changes within 2 h, many take considerably longer. Finally, while price decreases do ripple across the market like falling dominos, increases propagate across the city based more on geographic location and source of price control than on proximity to leaders of these increases. ( JEL L13, L40, L81)     

Measuring the impact of prices on inequality: With applications to Thailand and Korea

This paper develops a new methodology to compute social cost of living indices. These indices indicate whether or not price changes have a favourable (or unfavourable) impact on the welfare of the poor. The indices are derived on the basis of two alternative classes of social welfare functions. The methodology developed in the paper is applied to compute social cost of living indices for Thailand and Korea. The empirical results show that changes in prices have generally affected the poor more adversely than the non-poor.     

TRANSPARENCY IN MARKETS FOR EXPERIENCE GOODS: EXPERIMENTAL EVIDENCE

We propose an experimental design to investigate the role of information disclosure in the market for an experience good. The market is served by a duopoly of firms that choose both the quality and the price of their product. Consumers differ in their taste for quality and choose from which firm to buy. We compare four different treatments in which we vary the degree to which consumers are informed about quality. Contrary to theoretical predictions, firms do not differentiate quality under full information. Rather, both tend to offer products of similar, high quality, entailing more intense price competition than predicted by theory. Under no information, we observe a “lemons” outcome where quality is low. At the same time, firms manage to maintain prices substantially above marginal cost. In two intermediate treatments, quality is significantly higher than the no‐information level, and there is evidence that prices become better predictors of quality. Taken together these findings suggest that information disclosure is a more effective tool to raise welfare and consumer surplus than theory would lead one to expect. (JEL L15, C91, D82)     

Creating a Favourable Deployment Mechanism of Oil and Gas Revenues with Regard to Volatile Oil Prices: The Case of Azerbaijan

This paper studies optimal mechanisms of intergenerational fair distribution of oil and gas revenues in terms of oil price shocks in the case of Azerbaijan. In order to determine optimal utilization mechanism of oil and gas revenues the following models: real constant expenditure (permanent income hypothesis), nominal constant expenditure, stable diminishing expenditure and stable rate diminishing expenditure, were tested on the basis of three alternative oil and gas export prices. Finally the research suggests the statistical method to calculate crude oil reference price for the midterm fiscal planning and the flexible mechanism which can be revised with regard to oil price uncertainty.     

SENTIMENT BIAS AND ASSET PRICES: EVIDENCE FROM SPORTS BETTING MARKETS AND SOCIAL MEDIA

Previous research using attendance‐based proxies for sentiment bias in sports betting markets confirmed the presence of investor sentiment in these markets. We use data from social media (Facebook “Likes”) to proxy for sentiment bias and analyze variation in bookmakers' prices investor sentiment. Based on betting data from seven professional sports leagues in Europe and North America, we find evidence that bookmakers increase prices for bets on teams with relatively more Facebook “Likes,” indicating the presence of price‐insensitive investors with sentiment bias. These price changes do not affect informational efficiency in this market. (JEL L81, G14)     

ON INFLATION AND REAL PRICE VARIABILITY

This paper studies the consequences of costly price adjustments for the variability of real prices accompanying inflation. For constant-elasticity demand and cost of production it is shown that a higher demand, a lower cost of production, or a lower cost of price adjustment leads to less intertemporal variability of real prices. If the marginal cost of production does not increase "too" fast, then the average real price is less than the real price that would prevail in the absence of inflation; additionally, a higher demand, a lower cost of production, or a lower cost of price adjustment leads to a higher level of real prices.