Education and Life Satisfaction in Relation to the Probability of Social Trust: a Conceptual Framework and Empirical Analysis

We employ cross-sectional microdata from 2010 through 2012 collected by the Italian National Institute of Statistics to investigate the proposed conceptual framework regarding the joint relationship between education, life satisfaction and the probability of social trust. The analysis has been carried out using two alternative specifications of the logit model: parametric and semiparametric. Our findings suggest that (a) both modelling methods that we utilise yield consistent results in terms of the positive effects of education and life satisfaction on social trust; (b) for unsatisfied individuals, social trust is generally low and largely unresponsive to the individual’s education level, whereas for ‘sufficiently satisfied’ individuals, social trust increases strongly with education; (c) there are some gender differences in the joint relationship between education, life satisfaction and social trust and (d) the parametric approach tends to mask some interesting patterns that are captured by the semiparametric specification. This finding implies that the parametric approach leads to a biased interpretation of the results, with an apparent failure of some of the assumptions made in the conceptual framework.     

A New Dataset on Horizontal Structural Ethnic Inequalities in Thailand in Order to Address Sustainable Development Goal 10

The study accounts for the presence of endogeneity in the interdependence between social and institutional trust. Using Greece as a case study we provide valuable insights regarding the bidirectional nature of this relationship and its sign. Consequently, more accurate results might be provided regarding the determinants of both types of trust and the way in which these may be discerned in a given society. We use microdata extracted from the European Values Surveys (2002–2010) and instrumental variables techniques. Social trust is constructed as a three-item scale variable comprising generalized trust, fairness and helpfulness. The institutional trust variable is constructed as the sum of seven variables referring to trust in political institutions, civil security institutions and, supranational political institutions. In line with the hypothesis formed here, the results indicate the presence of endogeneity in the social and institutional trust interrelationship. When accounted for, this endogeneity entails different results as regards the sign of the effect that institutional trust exerts upon social trust, which turns from positive to negative. The study contributes to the limited empirical knowledge regarding the micro level two-way causal relationship between social trust and institutional trust. The study’s findings provides us with a more informative and accurate picture of the underlying dynamics of building trust in a society. Important research and policy level issues draw from these findings.

     

The problems of eligibility and endogenous confounders when assessing the mortality impact of a nationwide disease-prevention programme: the case of insecticide-treated nets in Togo

Evaluation of the mortality impact of nationwide disease-prevention efforts is complicated by potential endogeneity: programme recipients may have unobserved characteristics that simultaneously make them both more likely to become recipients and more likely to survive as a result of other health practices. This population-based study assesses the mortality impact of a nationwide programme that distributed insecticide-treated nets (ITNs) to mothers of children aged 9-59 months in Togo. By comparing mortality rates before and after the programme according to households' eligibility status, we demonstrate that a one-time programme that restricts eligibility to households with a surviving child excludes some households with a high risk of child mortality. We then apply simultaneous estimation models to untangle the mortality impact of ITNs from the effects of unobserved confounders and show that among eligible households, living in a household with ITNs significantly reduces mortality for children aged 20-59 months, even after controlling for endogeneity.     

Unequal transitions: Selection bias and the compensatory effect of social background in educational careers

Previous studies have shown that social background inequality differs among educational transitions and it is stronger for those transitions that involve a higher risk of social demotion. This paper focuses on two processes that may account for part of the observed differences in social background inequality across educational transitions. First, it studies how the family of origin might compensate for a ‘false step’ in the early stage of young people's educational careers. This compensatory effect of social background can be described as the likelihood of having ‘a second chance’ for unsuccessful educational transitions. Second, it focuses on two unobserved factors that might potentially bias the effect of social background across educational transitions. These are the students’ unobserved cognitive and non-cognitive skills and their unobserved anticipated choices of dropping out of the education system. Two issues – the compensatory effect of social background and selection bias in educational transitions – are addressed by estimating a probit model with sample selection for the transition to post-compulsory education in Spain.     

Malthus in state space: Macro economic-demographic relations in English history, 1540 to 1870

. The history of preindustrial Europe provides an opportunity to examine the causes and consequences of population change at a macro level. However, serious statistical problems arise from the endogeneity of all observed variables in a Malthusian system (fertility, mortality, population size, and real wages), and from unobserved influences such as shifts in the demand for labor and variations in health. These problems have undermined both informal inference from the data and more complex econometric investigations. This paper takes a new statistical approach, finding the maximum likelihood estimate of a state space representation of the Malthusian system by repeated application of Kalman filter methods, using annual data from England, 1540 to 1870. The new estimates confirm some findings of the earlier literature and contradict others. Some variables are estimated for the first time. Implications are discussed for the interpretation of English economic-demographic history. Received: 3 January 2000/Accepted: 22 January 2001     

The Development of Official Social Statistics in Italy with a Life Quality Approach

The article covers the main steps of official statistics in the second half of the Nineties through the illustration of the transition from economic oriented official statistics to the quality of life approach. The system of the Multipurpose Surveys introduced in 1993 to give an answer to questions at social level and to provide indicators for social policies, has been developed with a quality of life approach that combines the objective dimension to the subjective one. All dimensions of the social sphere have been analyzed with this approach: health, crime, leisure, work, poverty and deprivation. Sometimes the subjective questions were proxy of the objective situation, such as health and sometimes subjective aspects complemented the objective as in the case of crime and poverty. The history of the Italian official statistics is an example of how it is possible to realize a qualitative leap in social statistics integrating the objective and the subjective dimension.     

Social networks and HIV/AIDS risk perceptions

Understanding the determinants of individuals' perceptions of their risk of becoming infected with HIV and their perceptions of acceptable strategies of prevention is an essential step toward curtailing the spread of this disease. We focus in this article on learning and decision-making about AIDS in the context of high uncertainty about the disease and appropriate behavioral responses. We argue that social interactions are important for both. Using longitudinal survey data from rural Kenya and Malawi, we test this hypothesis. We investigate whether social interactions--and especially the extent to which social network partners perceive themselves to be at risk--exert causal influences on respondents' risk perceptions and on one approach to prevention, spousal communication about the threat of AIDS to the couple and their children. The study explicitly allows for the possibility that important characteristics, such as unobserved preferences or community characteristics, determine not only the outcomes of interest but also the size and composition of networks. The most important empirical result is that social networks have significant and substantial effects on risk perceptions and the adoption of new behaviors even after we control for unobserved factors.     

Modelling the impact of women’s education on fertility in Malawi

Many studies have suggested that there is an inverse relationship between education and number of children among women from sub-Saharan Africa countries, including Malawi. However, a crucial limitation of these analyses is that they do not control for the potential endogeneity of education. The aim of our study is to estimate the role of women’s education on their number of children in Malawi, accounting for the possible presence of endogeneity and for nonlinear effects of continuous observed confounders. Our analysis is based on micro data from the 2010 Malawi Demographic Health Survey, and uses a flexible instrumental variable regression approach. The results suggest that the relationship of interest is affected by endogeneity and exhibits an inverted U-shape among women living in rural areas of Malawi, whereas it exhibits an inverse (nonlinear) relationship for women living in urban areas.     

The Association Between the Fear of Crime,and Mental and Physical Wellbeing in New Zealand

Researchers have provided clear evidence that the fear of crime can lead to various mental health-related issues including anxiety and psychological distress. However, studies on the effects of fear of crime on physical health are limited. Adding to and extending this literature, we evaluated the association between fear of crime and mental and physical health outcomes in a new setting (New Zealand) and at a national scale. As an added contribution to the literature, we examined whether the fear of crime is independently associated with mental and physical wellbeing, regardless of neighbourhood crime rates. Using data from the New Zealand General Social Survey, the 2006 census and the New Zealand Police, we fitted linear and two-level hierarchical linear models regression models to assess the impact of fear of crime on mental and physical health, at varying stages of individual and area-level confounder adjustment. Even after adjusting for a number of individual- and area-level factors that are related to social inequalities in health in the country, a significant effect of increased fear of crime on lower mental and physical wellbeing was detected. We did not, however, detect significant independent effects for neighbourhood crime rates for either outcome. Our findings indicate that fear of crime, rather than recorded crime rates, was associated with detrimental mental and physical health outcomes. As such, efforts to not only reduce crime but perceived risk of crime could yield public health and social wellbeing benefits.     

Armed Conflict and the Timing of Childbearing in Azerbaijan

Research on fertility changes in former Soviet states of the South Caucasus is scant and has overlooked the role of armed conflicts. This study contributes to filling these gaps by providing the first detailed account of fertility changes in Azerbaijan since independence and by exploring them in relation to the Nagorno-Karabakh conflict with Armenia. Estimates from retrospective birth history data from the 2006 Demographic and Health Survey show that since 1991 period fertility declined to almost below-replacement levels, essentially as a result of stopping behavior, and, only recently, slight birth postponement. While the conflict seems to have little influence on aggregate trends, discrete-time logit models accounting for unobserved heterogeneity reveal a 42–45 percent higher risk of transitioning to the second birth for women who have been exposed to conflict violence—whether in the form of forced migration or because of residence in the conflict-torn Karabakh region—than for nonexposed women. Never-migrant women from Karabakh have also significantly higher probability of having a first child. Further positive effects on fertility are observed for women who lost a child during peak conflict years. Risk-insurance and replacement effects are possible mechanisms explaining such fertility responses.     

Social networks and changes in contraceptive use over time: evidence from a longitudinal study in rural Kenya

The impacts of social networks on changes in contraception in rural Kenya are investigated using special data from a longitudinal household survey. An analytic model, informed by detailed knowledge of the setting, yielded estimates that indicate that (1) social networks have substantial effects even after unobserved factors (e.g., homophily) that may determine social networks are controlled; (2) controlling for these unobserved factors may substantially alter the estimated effects of networks (these controls were not used in previous studies); (3) network effects are important for both men and women; and (4) network effects are nonlinear and asymmetric, suggesting that networks provide information primarily through social learning, rather than by exerting social influence.     

Resilient or Resigned? Criminal Victimisation and Quality of Life in South Africa

A victimisation study conducted among 3300 householders in South Africa’s Nelson Mandela Metropolitan Municipality (NMMM) in the Eastern Cape Province aimed to inform a crime prevention strategy for the metropolitan area. The study found that the variables ‘fear of crime’ – measured in terms of perceived likelihood of victimisation – and concern about ‘personal safety’ had greater negative influence on life satisfaction than actual victimisation. Individual crimes against the person had greater negative influence on subjective wellbeing and feelings of personal safety than property and other household crimes. Individuals who perceived themselves to be at risk of becoming a victim of crime also perceived greater risk of other misfortunes. However, materially better-off victims reported higher levels of life satisfaction than non-victims in spite of their crime experience. South Africa has high crime rates by international standards and fighting crime presents the country with one of its major challenges in the second decade of democracy. Nevertheless, findings suggest that the negative impact of crime issues on achieving the good life are overshadowed by issues of racial inequalities and poverty. The conclusion is drawn that residents of Nelson Mandela Metropole are hardy when it comes to living with crime but nonetheless suffer stress in doing so. From a methodological perspective, the discussion considers whether subjective crime issues such as fear of crime and personal safety should be regarded as personal or neighbourhood quality-of-life issues. Based on survey findings, the conclusion is drawn that concern for personal safety is both. However, a crime-as-neighbourhood-issue is more likely to attract remedial action on the part␣of␣local authorities to better protect citizens and allay their fears of crime.     

Prenatal Exposure to an Acute Stressor and Children’s Cognitive Outcomes

Exposure to environmental stressors is highly prevalent and unequally distributed along socioeconomic lines and may have enduring negative consequences, even when experienced before birth. Yet, estimating the consequences of prenatal stress on children’s outcomes is complicated by the issue of confounding (i.e., unobserved factors correlated with stress exposure and with children’s outcomes). I combine a natural experiment—a strong earthquake in Chile—with a panel survey to capture the effect of prenatal exposure on acute stress and children’s cognitive ability. I find that stress exposure in early pregnancy has no effect on children’s cognition among middle-class families, but it has a strong negative influence among disadvantaged families. I then examine possible pathways accounting for the socioeconomic stratification in the effect of stress, including differential exposure across socioeconomic status, differential sensitivity, and parental responses. Findings suggest that the interaction between prenatal exposures and socioeconomic advantage provides a powerful mechanism for the intergenerational transmission of disadvantage.     

Measuring Household Wealth with Latent Trait Modelling: An Application to Malawian DHS Data

Public perceptions of crime and victimisation can influence an individual’s subjective well-being. Research into the impact of the fear of crime and victimisation on subjective well-being, however, has been limited; particularly with respect to the relative contributions of real versus perceived crime towards an individual’s self-reported life satisfaction. Improving our understanding of the relationship between crime and well-being is important, as public resources assigned to reducing or controlling crime could be assigned to addressing other social concerns. This paper extends the literature by exploring the contribution of real and perceived crime in an individual’s local area to their self-reported life satisfaction. Our results indicate that: (1) individuals’ perceptions of crime in their local area are far greater than actual levels of crime; (2) the gap between perceived and real crime is widening as real crime rates fall faster than the perceived rate of crime; (3) real crime rates detract more from an individual’s self-reported life satisfaction than perceived rates of crime; however, (4) perceived rates of crime have an adverse impact on life satisfaction beyond those associated with real crime; and (5) there is significant heterogeneity in the life satisfaction effects of real and perceived crime among groups of individuals. These results, together with empirical evidence highlighting successful strategies for moderating perceptions of crime, facilitate the development of more informed public policy that will improve individual life satisfaction and, ultimately, community well-being.     

Intercultural Experience as an Impediment of Trust: Examining the Impact of Intercultural Experience and Social Trust Culture on Institutional Trust in Government

Government is an important institution in every society, but public trust in government has been declining worldwide. Like social trust, institutional trust in government manifests in two forms—goodwill-based (based on intentions and purposes) and competence-based (based on competence and performance). Using archival data of the AsiaBarometer (2004), I found a cross-level interaction effect of intercultural experience and social trust culture on goodwill-based, but not competence-based, institutional trust in government. Intercultural experience was negatively related to goodwill-based institutional trust in government within regions of low social trust but not within regions of high social trust. Both types of institutional trust in government within regions of high social trust were lower than those within regions of low social trust. Furthermore, both types of institutional trust in government were positively related to socioeconomic, public, and personal life satisfaction. These findings shed light on the tension between institutional trust in government and social trust as well as a government’s dilemma posed by intercultural experience.     

Unobserved Heterogeneity Can Confound the Effect of Education on Mortality

Two opposing hypotheses were proposed to explain the life course pattern in the effect of education on mortality: “cumulative advantage,” where the education effect becomes stronger with age, and “age-as-leveler,” where the effect becomes weaker in old age. Most empirical studies bring evidence for the latter hypothesis, but the observed convergence of mortality patterns could be an artifact of selective mortality due to unobserved heterogeneity. A simulation shows that unobserved heterogeneity can bias the estimated effect of education downward so that the cohort-average effect of education decreases in old age regardless of the shape of the underlying subject-specific trajectory.     

Volatile Places,Volatile Times: Predicting Revolutionary Situations with Nations’ Governance and Fragility Indicators

In the last decade, Mexico, the second largest economy in Latin America, has seen high poverty, inequality, and increasing homicide rates, which has led to widespread fear of crime. Two important challenges to understand the elevated levels of fear of crime are the lack of agreement on how to measure it and the debate on whether it responds to actual crime or to a general feeling of vulnerability associated with poverty. Moreover there is little research in Mexico examining the complex influence of social context at the municipality level, on the relationship between person-level characteristics and fear of crime. Using Mexico’s 2015 National Survey of Victimization the goal of the study is to estimate a two-level hierarchical regression analysis combining the effects of person-level predictors and municipality level context variables to explain fear of crime in Mexico´s urban population. Our results show that some person level attributes—victimization, incivilities, trust, police effectiveness, and collective organization—are consistently associated with the three domains of fear of crime: feelings of insecurity, perceptions of risk, and avoidance behaviors. The study shows that homicide rates at the municipality level are directly associated with feelings of insecurity and avoidance behaviors. In addition, high multidimensional poverty and inequality at the municipality level amplified the rate by which incivilities affect perceptions of risk. Unexpectedly, collective efficacy at the municipality level and collective organization to solve crime at the individual level were positive and significant predictors for fear of crime in Mexico.     

Social Cohesion as a Real-life Phenomenon: Assessing the Explanatory Power of the Universalist and Particularist Perspectives

Unlike most studies on social cohesion, this study explores the concept as a real-life macro-level phenomenon. It assesses to what extent the conceptions of social cohesion suggested by several macro-level approaches represent coherent empirically observable forms of social cohesion. Additionally it discusses two perspectives on social cohesion—the universalist and the particularist perspective. The former would expect social cohesion to be related to stages of socio-economic development. The latter hypothesizes enduring, regionally unique regimes of social cohesion resisting the homogenizing pressures of modernization. The paper finds evidence for both perspectives. On the one hand, a syndrome of social cohesion was identified consisting of trust, equality, order (i.e. lack of crime) and consensus on basic values which correlates closely with indicators of socio-economic development. This finding supports the universalist perspective. On the other hand, and consistent with the particularist perspective, the study found regionally unique patterns for Latin America, Eastern Europe and Scandinavia.     

When lesbians aren't gay: factors affecting depression among lesbians

Research on women and depression has neglected to explore how the factors that put women at risk for depression apply to lesbians. The present study examined four of the risk factors consistently cited in the women and depression literature (relationship status, relationship satisfaction, social support from friends, and social support from family), and two unique factors (outness and relationship status satisfaction), to determine their ability to predict depression among lesbians. Data were collected from 167 lesbians between the ages of 20 and 60. Perceived social support from friends, relationship status satisfaction, and perceived social support from family, were found to be significant predictors, accounting for 17.8% of the variance in depression, as measured by the Center for Epidemiologic Study Depression Scale (CES-D). A second multiple regression equation focused on the 110 lesbians who were in committed relationships, using the variables relationship satisfaction, perceived social support from friends, perceived social support from family, and outness, to determine if relationship satisfaction added to the amount of variance which could be predicted in depression. Social support from friends was the only significant predictor in this equation, accounting for 5.8% of the variance in depression scores.