Intercultural Experience as an Impediment of Trust: Examining the Impact of Intercultural Experience and Social Trust Culture on Institutional Trust in Government

Government is an important institution in every society, but public trust in government has been declining worldwide. Like social trust, institutional trust in government manifests in two forms—goodwill-based (based on intentions and purposes) and competence-based (based on competence and performance). Using archival data of the AsiaBarometer (2004), I found a cross-level interaction effect of intercultural experience and social trust culture on goodwill-based, but not competence-based, institutional trust in government. Intercultural experience was negatively related to goodwill-based institutional trust in government within regions of low social trust but not within regions of high social trust. Both types of institutional trust in government within regions of high social trust were lower than those within regions of low social trust. Furthermore, both types of institutional trust in government were positively related to socioeconomic, public, and personal life satisfaction. These findings shed light on the tension between institutional trust in government and social trust as well as a government’s dilemma posed by intercultural experience.     

青少年人口犯罪中刑罚预防作用的调查分析——以天津市为例

刑罚无疑具有预防犯罪的价值,这种价值体现在犯罪人作案前对刑罚风险的主观估计,而犯罪人自身对刑罚认知上的偏差,会影响刑罚预防价值的发挥。传统上,青少年犯罪常被认为是一种"不计后果"的犯罪,其实犯罪青少年对刑罚风险的感知、判断并不弱于其他犯罪人,刑罚对青少年犯罪仍有重要的预防作用,只不过其作用的大小因犯罪青少年的年龄、性别、文化程度等有所差异。另外,一些相关因素也造成了刑罚对部分犯罪青少年预防作用的"缺失"。     

社会支持对我国高龄老人死亡风险影响的Cox模型分析

文章运用中国高龄老人健康长寿跟踪调查纵向数据（1998～2005年）,对年龄范围在80～105岁的高龄老人进行考察,并基于Cox模型对社会支持于高龄老人死亡风险的影响机制进行探讨,对西方学者提出的社会支持的影响机制模型进行实证检验。结果表明,从我国的现实意义来看,社会支持对健康的影响是针对不健康的人群起到了缓冲作用,社会支持和健康变量之间存在着交互作用。另外,社会支持中的生活照料和情感支持对改善我国高龄老人的健康状况具有显著效果。     

College Education and Social Trust: An Evidence-Based Study on the Causal Mechanisms

This paper examines the influence of college education on social trust at the individual level. Based on the literature of trust and social trust, we hypothesize that life experience/development since adulthood and perceptions of cultural/social structures are two primary channels in the causal linkage between college education and social trust. In the first part of the empirical study econometric techniques are employed to tackle the omitted-variable problem and substantial evidence is found to confirm the positive effect of college education. In the second part contemporary information is used to examine the hypothetical mechanisms in the causal inference. That life experience is a primary channel via which college education promotes social trust fails to find support in our examination, while individual perceptions of cultural and social structures explain up to 77% of the causal effect.     

Estimating the Effect of Smoking on Slowdowns in Mortality Declines in Developed Countries

Declines in mortality rates for females at older ages in some developed countries, including the United States, have slowed in recent decades even as decreases have steadily continued in some other countries. This study presents a modified version of the indirect Peto-Lopez method, which uses lung cancer mortality rates as a proxy for smoking exposure, to analyze this trend. The modified method estimates smoking-attributable mortality for more-specific age groups than does the Peto-Lopez method. An adjustment factor is also introduced to account for low mortality in the indirect method’s study population. These modifications are shown to be useful specifically in the estimation of deaths attributable to smoking for females at older ages, and in the estimation of smoking-attributable mortality more generally. In a comparison made between the United States and France with the modified method, smoking is found to be responsible for approximately one-half the difference in life expectancy for females at age 65.     

The Impact of Salmon Bias on the Hispanic Mortality Advantage: New Evidence from Social Security Data

A great deal of research has focused on factors that may contribute to the Hispanic mortality paradox in the United States. In this paper, we examine the role of the salmon bias hypothesis—the selective return of less-healthy Hispanics to their country of birth—on mortality at ages 65 and above. These analyses are based on data drawn from the Master Beneficiary Record and NUMIDENT data files of the Social Security Administration. These data provide the first direct evidence regarding the effect of salmon bias on the Hispanic mortality advantage. Although we confirm the existence of salmon bias, it is of too small a magnitude to be a primary explanation for the lower mortality of Hispanic than non-hispanic (NH)-White primary social security beneficiaries. Longitudinal surveys that follow individuals in and out of the United States are needed to further explore the role of migration in the health and mortality of foreign-born US residents and factors that contribute to the Hispanic mortality paradox.     

The Value of Trust: An Analysis of Social Capital in Natural Areas

This paper defines and analyses the characteristics of social trust that develop in natural areas, examining the connections and interactions between the people and institutions involved. It offers a deeper understanding of the different degrees of trust and the identification of those attributes that affect the generation of this trust at three different levels: strategic, normative and cognitive. The study of the value of trust allows, or at least contributes to, an understanding of different levels of development. The study population consists of local associations, as a sample of existing social structures, and is taken from two areas in Andalusia, Spain. From the application of the proposed method a null hypothesis for the runs and Mann–Whitney tests is accepted at the three levels of trust for both areas. For strategic and cognitive trust, the behaviours of both areas are homogenous, while in the case of normative trust for the Chi square test the alternative hypothesis is accepted. The methodology that is developed demonstrates the interest presented by trust as a study variable in research dealing with social capital and its direct influence on the development of territories. Trust should be considered alongside physical, natural and human capital, since none of these alone is sufficient for complete territorial development.

     

Statistical and Perceived Diversity and Their Impacts on Neighborhood Social Cohesion in Germany,France and the Netherlands

The question whether ethnic diversity is associated with declining social cohesion has produced much controversy. We maintain that more attention must be paid to cognitive mechanisms to move the debate ahead. Using survey data from 938 localities in Germany, France, and the Netherlands, we explore a crucial individual-level mechanism: perceptions of diversity. We not only consider perceptions of the amount, but also of the qualitative nature of diversity. By asking about various qualitative aspects of diversity, we test the cognitive salience of three explanations that have been proposed in the literature for negative diversity effects: out-group biases, asymmetric preferences and coordination problems. We show that all three mechanisms matter. Perceptions both mediate statistical diversity effects, and have important explanatory power of their own. Moreover, we are able to address the question to what extend the relationship of perceived diversity and neighborhood social cohesion varies across policy contexts. Based on assumptions in the literature about positive impacts of inclusive and culturally pluralist immigrant integration policy approaches, we hypothesize that ethno-cultural diversity is less negatively related to neighborhood social cohesion in more inclusive policy contexts. Our results provide partial support for this hypothesis as perceived diversity has a significantly stronger negative impact on neighborhood cohesion in Germany.     

Estimating the Effect of the One-Child Policy on the Sex Ratio Imbalance in China: Identification Based on the Difference-in-Differences

In China, the male-biased sex ratio has increased significantly. Because the one-child policy applies only to the Han Chinese but not to minorities, this unique affirmative policy allows us to identify the causal effect of the one-child policy on the increase in sex ratios by using a difference-in-differences (DD) estimator. Using the 1990 census, we find that the strict enforcement of the one-child policy led to 4.4 extra boys per 100 girls in the 1980s, accounting for about 94% of the total increase in sex ratios during this period. The robust tests indicate that the estimated policy effect is not likely confounded by other omitted policy shocks or socioeconomic changes. Moreover, we conduct the DD estimation using both the 2000 census and the 2005 mini-census. Our estimates suggest that the one-child policy resulted in about 7.0 extra boys per 100 girls for the 1991–2005 birth cohorts. The effect of the one-child policy accounts for about 57% and 54% of the total increases in sex ratios for the 1991–2000 and 2001–2005 birth cohorts, respectively.     

个人社会资本对大学生就业市场的影响

文章利用"大学毕业生就业问卷调查"所得数据和Heckman两步法,估计了个人社会资本因素对大学生就业概率和初始工资的影响,并与非社会资本因素进行了对比分析。结果显示,尽管部分社会资本的"质"和"量"对就业有一定的显著正影响,但从总体来看,学生个人社会资本因素无助于劳动力市场效率的改进;相反,非社会资本因素,包括个人人力资本和公共信息等,是影响就业和初始工资的决定性因素,也是促进劳动力市场效率的主要着眼点。     

Social Services for Children At Risk: The Impact on the Quality of Life

Social Indicators Research -     

论退耕还林中农民面临的社会风险

退耕还林 (草 )工程使部分农民面临生活风险 ,这是一种社会风险。各项退耕还林政策的实施 ,既有利于促进生态环境改善和产业结构调整 ,也有利于化解退耕农的社会风险。发挥政策主导作用 ,搞好扶贫开发和生态移民 ,是化解退耕农社会风险的主要措施。     

Education and Life Satisfaction in Relation to the Probability of Social Trust: a Conceptual Framework and Empirical Analysis

We employ cross-sectional microdata from 2010 through 2012 collected by the Italian National Institute of Statistics to investigate the proposed conceptual framework regarding the joint relationship between education, life satisfaction and the probability of social trust. The analysis has been carried out using two alternative specifications of the logit model: parametric and semiparametric. Our findings suggest that (a) both modelling methods that we utilise yield consistent results in terms of the positive effects of education and life satisfaction on social trust; (b) for unsatisfied individuals, social trust is generally low and largely unresponsive to the individual’s education level, whereas for ‘sufficiently satisfied’ individuals, social trust increases strongly with education; (c) there are some gender differences in the joint relationship between education, life satisfaction and social trust and (d) the parametric approach tends to mask some interesting patterns that are captured by the semiparametric specification. This finding implies that the parametric approach leads to a biased interpretation of the results, with an apparent failure of some of the assumptions made in the conceptual framework.     

Refusal Bias in the Estimation of HIV Prevalence

In 2007, UNAIDS corrected estimates of global HIV prevalence downward from 40 million to 33 million based on a methodological shift from sentinel surveillance to population-based surveys. Since then, population-based surveys are considered the gold standard for estimating HIV prevalence. However, prevalence rates based on representative surveys may be biased because of nonresponse. This article investigates one potential source of nonresponse bias: refusal to participate in the HIV test. We use the identity of randomly assigned interviewers to identify the participation effect and estimate HIV prevalence rates corrected for unobservable characteristics with a Heckman selection model. The analysis is based on a survey of 1,992 individuals in urban Namibia, which included an HIV test. We find that the bias resulting from refusal is not significant for the overall sample. However, a detailed analysis using kernel density estimates shows that the bias is substantial for the younger and the poorer population. Nonparticipants in these subsamples are estimated to be three times more likely to be HIV-positive than participants. The difference is particularly pronounced for women. Prevalence rates that ignore this selection effect may be seriously biased for specific target groups, leading to misallocation of resources for prevention and treatment.     

Estimating Diversity Effects in the Neighborhood: On the Role of Ethnic Diversity and Out-group Size and their Associations with Neighborhood Cohesion and Fear of Crime

This study considers and simultaneously tests the role of ethnic diversity and out-group size in relation to individuals’ perceptions of neighborhood cohesion and fear of crime among natives in Dutch neighborhoods. We challenge the way the impact of diversity has been studied previously and propose an alternative measure to examine diversity effects. This results in a better understanding of how and why the ethnic composition of a neighborhood may impact levels of cohesion and fear, and thereby contributes to the literature on the societal effects of ethnic diversity. In addition, attention is paid to the association between cohesion and fear and whether neighborhood cohesion mediates the relationship between ethnic diversity and fear of crime. We apply multilevel equation modeling techniques to analyze the different relationships and use data of the Dutch Safety Monitor (N?=?71,760) in combination with detailed register data. Our study is one of the first to detect a diversity effect on cohesion based on the modified diversity measure. We do not find support for the hypothesized diversity effect on fear of crime. Lastly, out-group size turned out to decrease cohesion and increase fear.

     

高龄农民工的心理健康及其社会支持机制

农民工因迁移造成的空间场域转换、社会适应难、经济地位低等是影响其心理健康的重要因素。高龄农民工是农民工中的特殊群体,其心理健康状况堪忧。社会支持已被证实对心理健康具有重要的保护作用,据此,本文研究社会支持对高龄农民工心理健康的作用。结果发现,社会支持"量"的特征对心理健康不存在显著影响,而社会支持"质"的特征则显著促进心理健康并有明显的调节作用,高龄农民工心理健康差于中青年农民工,但感知城市户籍人口支持减缓了高龄农民工在城市生活中的心理负担;此外,在高龄农民工内部,跨省农民工心理状况劣于省内流动者,而感知城市户籍人口支持减缓了跨省流动者的心理压力。     

Impact of Arts-Related Activities on the Perceived Quality of Life

The aim of this investigation was to measure the impact of arts-related activities on the perceived or experienced quality of life. In the fall of 2006 a questionnaire was mailed out to a random selection of 2000 households in each of five British Columbia communities, and 1027 were returned completed. The total and individual community samples should be regarded as merely representative of some British Columbian residents who had some interest in the arts. Sixty-six kinds of arts-related activities were identified in the questionnaire, and five indexes were created to help explain people’s motives for engaging in such activities. Seven different scales were used to measure respondents’ overall assessment of their lives, (1) self-reported general health (5-point scale), (2) satisfaction with life as a whole (7-point scale), (3) satisfaction with the overall quality of life (7-points), (4) happiness with life as a whole (7-points), (5) satisfaction with life as a whole (5-item index), (6) contentment with life (5-item index), (7) subjective wellbeing (4-item index). In the context of all our predictors, based on the relative impact of all the arts-related activities and the satisfaction obtained from those activities on our seven overall life assessment variables, it is fair to say that such activities and their corresponding satisfaction contributed relatively little. While this may seem incredible (especially to arts enthusiasts), it is important to keep in mind the initial condition “in the context of all our predictors” and the qualifier “relatively”. Our inability to discover greater marginal or total impacts of arts-related activities on the perceived quality of life may be the result of our use of the wrong search instruments for the great variety of values involved. It is an open question whether we used the best tools and found as much as there was to find or whether better tools would have found more.     

社会支持对农村缺损型家庭学龄儿童行为的影响分析

本文将农村缺损型家庭分为永久性亲子分离型缺损家庭(简称残缺家庭)和暂时性亲子分离型缺损型家庭(包括离异家庭和留守家庭)。通过文献梳理发现家庭结构对儿童行为可能产生影响,社会支持也对儿童行为产生影响。基于此,本文提出研究假设,农村缺损型家庭学龄儿童存在不同程度的行为问题,不同主体、不同类型的社会支持对农村缺损型家庭学龄儿童的行为存在影响。通过设计的访谈问卷和YSR自评量表对四川省巴中市恩阳区乡镇学校中缺损家庭学龄儿童进行问卷调查,发现留守家庭占37.13%,离异家庭占37.55%,失去父母家庭占25.32%。以全国常模为标准参照分析发现,恩阳区农村缺损型家庭学龄儿童确实存在较高的行为问题(总分检出率15.61%)。基于Logit模型进行实证分析发现不同类型缺损家庭学龄儿童行为问题存在差异,三类缺损型家庭中,残缺家庭学龄儿童行为问题最严重,离异家庭学龄儿童次之,留守家庭学龄儿童最低。不同主体(父亲、母亲、监护人、教师和同学)提供的不同类型(社会交流、尊重意见、分享秘密)的社会支持对农村缺损型家庭学龄儿童行为问题的影响存在差异。应关爱农村缺损型家庭学龄儿童,构建学龄儿童美好生活的支持体系,满足其多样化的成长需求。