Economic versus psychological forecasting. Evidence from consumer confidence surveys

Permanent and widespread psychological biases affect both the subjective probability of future economic events and their retrospective interpretation. They may give rise to a systematic gap between (over-critical) judgments and (over-optimistic) expectations – the “forecast” error. When things go bad, then, psychology suggests that people tend to become particularly bullish, amplifying the forecast error. Also, psychology argues that personal/future conditions are systematically perceived to be better than the aggregate/past ones. All this sharply contrasts with standard economic assumptions. Evidence from a unique dataset covering 10 European countries over 22 years confirms the presence of structural psychologically driven distortions in people’s judgments and expectations formation.     

What inhibits the mere-exposure effect: Recollection or familiarity?

The mere-exposure effect is the formation of a positive affective reaction (PAR) to repeated or single exposure to a stimulus, even in the absence of awareness. The mere-exposure effect indicates that communication effects go beyond “explicit memory”, measured with the traditional measures of (aided) recall and recognition. “Implicit memory” indicates latent communication effects, e.g., liking, for persons exposed to particular stimuli. The mere-exposure effect in the absence of awareness represents implicit memory. In this study, the mere-exposure effect is observed by using a new type of divided-attention method with Chinese participants responding to Chinese characters. The prediction by the two-factor model of mere-exposure effect is confirmed. Recognition (“explicit memory”) may inhibit the mere-exposure effect. Recognition memory is a dual process with two aspects: recollection and familiarity. Employing the process dissociation procedure (PDP) (Jacoby, L.L., 1991. Journal of Memory and Language 30, 513–541), it is found that familiarity of above-chance recognition is greater than that of chance recognition. It is the high level of familiarity and not recollection of abovechance recognition that inhibits the mere-exposure effect. The implications of these findings are that a high level of familiarity inhibits the primary affective reaction and “replaces” this reaction with a more conscious and cognitive evaluation. With the two-factor model, with wear-in (habituation) and wear-out (satiation) factors, the optimal level of exposure may be determined in order to increase the affective reaction. The study shows the robustness of the mere-exposure effect, also for familiar stimuli.     

Opportunity in paid vs. unpaid public relations internships: A semantic network analysis

Semantic network analysis was used to compare differences in benefit appeal in two sets of letters written by the business community to the internship director. In the Unpaid set (N=72) the promise of “opportunity” co-occurred more often with appeals such as “for credit,” “flexible schedule” and “supervision.” In the Paid set (N=73) emphasis was placed on writing skills and work related tasks. This study reveals the business community's understanding of student expectations from the internship experience.     

‘Aging’ identities: Degradation and negotiation in the search for employment

This study draws on data from interviews with individuals aged 45 to 65 (n = 30) to examine changes in identity that occur during their search for employment. Findings indicate that once participants perceive they have been labelled “old” by others (i.e. potential employers and personnel at older worker programs) they begin to define themselves as “old” and become susceptible to identity degradation. However, the majority of individuals are able to successfully negotiate their identities by drawing on social support, attending older worker programs, changing their identities, maintaining some of their key roles, and altering their overall mental outlook. This paper draws attention to the paradoxical nature of the job search process and to the latent consequences of older worker programs — individuals go to older worker programs for job search assistance, yet some of the experiences encountered during attendance at these programs mirrored many experiences encountered with discriminatory employers.     

Attachements indésirables, attachements acceptables : autour d’un échange de seringues en prison

To inquire into innovation in public policy, attention is focused on the work done by a group that proposed an innovative project for “preventing” drug-use in a prison in Luxembourg. After several events and reversals, the final arrangements, which brought together disparate interests, was grounded in the contingent attachment of various persons to the leading role played by a general practitioner and the “permanent attachment” of authorized needles distributed in a case. In a situation where attempts to work out a theory in terms of “positions”, “power” and “control” would have difficulty coming up with a convincing explanation of this surprising process, preference is given to describing this innovation in terms of “passages” and “attachments”.     

The peri-urban fringe: Europe's forgotten rural areas

The EC White Paper — The Future of Rural Society — identifies three “standard problems” of rural areas, but the first, which characterises areas associated with “the pressures of modern development”, receives little attention in the remainder of the document. This paper explains why it is particularly important that the peri-urban areas are not ignored in the development of rural policy. In the first place, the problems of these areas are inextricably linked to those of areas of rural decline and if such links are ignored the resulting partial analysis of rural problems may cause some important policy-options to be overlooked. Second, there continue to be pockets of disadvantage within the peri-urban areas where deprivation is likely to be increased by close proximity to an affluent majority. Finally, the paper analyses the Rural Community Strategy for Berkshire, a nonstatutory document prepared by a group drawn from governmental, quasi-governmental and non-governmental organisations in one peri-urban area of southern England. This shows that while the broad agenda of rural policy issues (covering employment, housing and services), may be very similar to that found in areas of rural decline the rationale for intervention is somewhat different, and transport issues may lie at the heart of the “standard problem” of these areas.     

“Control frauds” as financial super-predators: How “pathogens” make financial markets inefficient

White-collar criminology scholarship shows that “control frauds” (frauds led by the CEO) use accounting fraud to deceive (or suborn) sophisticated financial market participants. Large control frauds cause greater financial losses than all other forms of property crimes combined. Weak regulation, supervision and ethics produce epidemics of control fraud that cause systemic economic damage. As with the natural world, these financial super-predators act like pathogens that take over a firm and act as a “vector” to cause ever greater damage. Control fraud theory poses a major challenge to the efficient markets hypothesis and the resulting praxis that devalues financial regulation.     

The issue is human quality: In praise of children

This essay is based on the premise that quality in human life is inseparably linked to the well-being of children. In this view, the well-being of children is both the principal challenge faced by a modern society and the principal focal point tor a society “bound to move away from ‘growth’ defined as quantitative product irrespective of what and whom it is for.” Children and their needs provide an anchoring point for adult relationships that is “labor intensive” and intrinsically satisfying when set within a social context rich in enduring, reciprocal interpersonal relationships. The principal threats to the quality of social life are trends toward universalistic rather than particularistic systems for evaluating individuals, and materialistic rather than social criteria for evaluating productivity. Both these trends threaten childrearing as a valued activity. Both emphasize the “hurdensomeness” of children. Large schools and socially isolated families are the contexts in which these two trends find their most dangerous expression. A sustainable society requires a pro-family orientation if it is to meet the needs of children and thus provide for the fundamental psychic needs of adults. A variety of implications for individual action and social planning are derived from this discussion. These implications include the need to preserve and restore socially strong neighborhoods, reduce school size, and conduct “family impact analysis” as a basis for guiding decisions in the public and private sectors.     

Functional specificity in discussion networks: The influence of general and problem-specific networks on health outcomes

Though commonly used in social science research to measure the influence of social networks, the link between discussing “important matters” within networks and the achievement of instrumental ends is frequently unspecified or untested. To address this gap, we explore the consequences of using the general “important matters” approach versus one in which the substance of discussions is directly linked to the outcomes of interest. The egocentric social networks of people experiencing an acute health crisis are examined. We identify the characteristics of and the degree of membership overlap between “important matters” and “health matters” discussants, and explore their relative power in explaining a wide range of health and health services-related outcomes. We find no evidence for the influence of “important matters” networks, while characteristics of “health matters” networks demonstrate a significant effect across all models.     

On complexity and lotteries' evaluation – three experimental observations

We present experimental evidence suggesting that human subjects penalize lotteries for complexity. Our results contradict the assumption that human agents follow the discounted expected utility model in multi-period choice with uncertainty. In particular, we show that the buying price offered for an inferior, simple multi-period lottery may sometimes significantly exceed the buying price offered for a better, yet more complicated, alternative, when the lotteries are sold to a group of subjects in a first-price auction. We discuss the possibility to modify the existing models of choice to this “complexity effect”.     

Preventing youthful disconnectedness

Using data from the National Longitudinal Survey of Youth, this article examines the characteristics (and later life histories) of 16- to 23-year-olds who, during the 1980s, were “disconnected” from mainstream society, that is, they were not enrolled in school, not gainfully employed, not in the military, and not married to someone who was “connected” in one of these ways. One in three youths were disconnected for at least half of a calendar year. As adults, youths who were disconnected for a short time (in only one or two years) did not differ substantially from those who were never disconnected in terms of educational attainment, work history, family income, reliance on government programs, and marital status. However, those who were disconnected in three or more years experienced significantly greater hardships. This article suggests that school-related interventions (such as career-oriented education, after-school “safe havens,” and targeting individual deficits) might help prevent youthful disconnectedness.     

Is there a generalized energy conservation ethic? A comparison of the determinants of gasoline and home heating energy conservation

The body of research that has attempted to identify and characterize the “ecologically concerned” or “socially responsible” consumer is challenged for its assumption that this is a single group sharing a general disposition to conserve. Based on a comparison of gasoline and home heating energy conservers from a single sample, evidence is provided that these are two unique groups and that those who are conservers in both areas form a third unique group that is closer to the original notion of a generalized conservation ethic. Implications are discussed for future research focusing on energy conservation and social responsibility.     

Gender violence, fan activism and public relations in sport: The case of “Footy Fans Against Sexual Assault”

This paper is based on the belief that online activism is essential for understanding the role and potential of public relations in modern campaigns. In relation to the issue of gender violence against women in football, analyzed and compared are the responses of two official, resource-rich organisations – the National Rugby League (NRL) and Australian Football League (AFL) – and an unofficial, resource-poor fan advocacy group, called Football Fans against Sexual Assault (FFASA). In cooperation and conflict with the leagues, FFASA positioned itself in the market place, taking the widely unoccupied niche of “fan advocacy”—different from “expert advocacy” or “player advocacy”.The article discusses in more detail the major strategy of the group, the Purple Armband Games, which carries many elements of cutting-edge public relations such as advocacy as third-party endorsement; “fan activism” as empowering of “expert advocacy”; “symbolic outsourcing” of participants by facilitating their mode of engagement, the “emblematic richness” of the purple armband symbol, the “oneness” of which overcomes any confrontational dualism.     

Uncertainty and predictive accuracy: an empirical study

The purpose of this article was to explore the relation between uncertainty and predictive accuracy using data from a survey of inflationary expectations. Uncertainty was proxied alternatively by an interval estimate of expected inflation and a dummy variable capturing the respondents' perceived uncertainty. The relation between the former proxy and the predictive accuracy was negative, as expected, while that was not the case for the latter one. As a tentative explanation for this result we argue that the interval estimate may to some extent capture the access to information of the respondents, while the dummy may rather be conceived as a measure of the subjective feeling of uncertainty.     

Collaboration and competition in a children's health initiative coalition: a network analysis

Activating communities to achieve public health change and initiate policy reform usually requires collective action from many entities. This case study analyzes inter-organizational networks among members of a coalition created to expand health insurance coverage to uninsured children in a large metropolitan area. Six networks were measured: collaboration, competition, formal agreements, receive funding from, send funding to, and greater communication. The response rate was 65.8% (50 of the 76 active members). Positive network questions such as “who do you collaborate with” elicited many network choices whereas negative ones such as “who do you compete with” elicited few. The collaboration network had a core–periphery structure and analysis showed that a large network can be reduced to a small set of core organizations one-sixth the size of the whole. Centrality (out- and in-degree) was associated with perceived organizational function and perceived barriers to success. For example, organizations that received many choices as collaboration partners were more likely to perceive the coalition functioned well than those who received few choices. The study suggests that perceptions of organizational performance are associated with position in the network, central members are more likely to perceive the organization performs well than those on the periphery.     

The economic importance of air travel in high-amenity rural areas

The western United States offers a case study on the importance of access to large population centers and their markets, via road and air travel, for economic development. The vast distances between towns and cities in the American West can be a detriment to business, yet they also serve to attract technology and knowledge-based workers seeking to live in a picturesque setting. In spite of the increasing importance of amenities to migration and business location, also needed is access to markets, particularly via commercial air service. We test a new county classification system for the western United States to reflect differing degrees of access to population centers and account for the increasing importance of airports. Past classifications are based on population size and cross-county commuting. We examine the validity of this new classification and test for differences in economic performance among the three county types. Our findings show that there are three distinct Wests that can be classified using economic performance measures and socioeconomic characteristics. The results show that “metro” and “isolated” counties are clearly distinct, but “connected” counties, those that are rural in nature but have ready access to metropolitan areas via air travel, can be difficult to distinguish from “metro” and “isolated” counties. Much of the variation is explained by travel distance to airports. The findings illustrate the importance of airports in rural development, and the limitations facing those communities that are isolated from markets and population centers. The results apply to other parts of the world with similar characteristics that include large expanses of open space, natural amenities that attract migrants and stimulate new business, and different degrees of access to large population centers via road or air travel, and therefore different rates of economic growth.     

“It's practical, but no more controllable”: Social representations of the electronic purse in Austria

The electronic purse (chip-card) is promoted as an option offering consumers an easy means of payment. It also offers advantages to traders and banks by reducing transaction costs. However, successful launching of the electronic purse depends mainly on consumers' acceptance, which in the past was very low in Austria. We study consumers' acceptance of the electronic purse, cash and established non-cash payment systems by analysing social representations of payment facilities. Semantic contents of associations raised in response to the stimulus words “means of payment in general”, “cash”, “cheque”, “ATM-card”, “credit-card” and “electronic purse” have been analysed. Overall, 264 people were studied applying two techniques: the “associative network” and the “conceptual network”. It is shown that means of payment are categorised on two dimensions: cash and non-cash. Non-cash payment facilities are characterised by high abstraction levels, and loss of subjective control over expenditures. The electronic purse is perceived as highly dissimilar to other means of payments.     

Chinese Construction of Adolescent Development Outcome: Themes Discerned in a Qualitative Study

Although there are well-known theories of adolescent development in the West, there is a notable lack of theory and empirical support for understanding the outcome of Chinese adolescent development. This paper examines the cultural themes that account for Chinese–Canadian parents’ and adolescent’s construction of adolescent development outcome. A qualitative study approach was used to explore the experiences and views of 19 adolescents and 10 of their parents. Four major themes identified reflect deep-rooted cultural effects. These themes include: be a good person (self-cultivation), be a good child (filial piety), be a self-reliance person to honor family (Chinese familism), and be a mature person (the quest for harmony and other-related attributes). A concept of “self in relational networks” is therefore proposed for understanding the unique outcome of Chinese adolescent development in the Chinese–Canadian context. “Self in relational network,” in this context, refers to the development of a web of good fitting, harmonious, appropriately positioned, and socially acceptable interpersonal relationships in the adult world. The view reflects the indigenous concept of “guanxi” in Chinese culture.     

The World Bank and housing policy in Madras

The World Bank began its involvement with housing and urban programmes in 1972, offering a new theory and practice. This new theory emphasised “affordability” and the recovery of costs from the beneficiaries of programmes. It stood in contrast to the conventional way of doing things, with government providing “permanent construction” housing with extensive subsidies. “Affordable” housing would take the form of serviced plots of land on which the occupants arranged their own building (i.e. sites-and-services schemes), and in situ slum upgrading. In Madras, policymakers and senior public servants had a positive attitude to housing, especially for low-income groups. Consequently Madras contains much interest for developing countries generally in an evaluation of World Bank experience there, commencing in 1977.     

Life As Gift: Spiritual Narratives of Elderly African-American Women Living in Poverty

Fifty elderly African-American women living in poverty were interviewed for a research project entitled, “Chronic Poverty and the Self in Later Life.” Using four representative case studies from the 50 respondents, this article explores how their spirituality informs their ability to cope with poverty. A key theme emerging from the women's narratives is that their relationship with God, perceived as personal, reciprocal, and empowering, allows them to take an active and positive stance in viewing and interpreting the circumstances of their life. Their spirituality imbues their hardship with meaning, engenders self-esteem, keeps despair at bay, and grants hope for rewards both in this life and the next.