Protectionism: An analysis from project LINK

The LINK system of world trade is used to examine present tendencies toward protectionism. In protectionist scenarios we increase the prices of manufactured imports into 13 LINK-OECD countries by 5, 10, and 20 percent respectively, for 1978–1979. If a country's import equations do not depend significantly on relative price, we impose corresponding quantitative import restrictions of 5, 10, and 20 percent. Smaller OECD countries, developing countries, and socialist countries are assumed to be nonprotectionist in these scenarios. The discrepancies between the values of leading variables in the protectionist scenarios and in a baseline case show the effects of the different degrees of protectionism assumed. The results describe and validate Adam Smith's principles of the gains from free trade.     

技术壁垒与贸易保护

乌拉圭回合之后,技术壁垒取代关税壁垒成为主要的贸易保护方式,但是技术壁垒并不完全对等于贸易保护,技术壁垒的存在也有其合理的成分。我们从技术壁垒的生成动机出发,将技术壁垒按照技术差异、消除外部性和纯保护性这三种动机划分为三类以区分技术壁垒与贸易保护这两个不同的概念,前两点所探讨的技术壁垒就存在其合理性,是应该被接纳和认可的,我们必须以正确的态度去对待这类技术壁垒;而对于后者,就是一种变相的贸易保护,应当援引国际法维护自身利益。     

Trade liberalization and factor prices: An application to the U.S. manufacturing sector

The effects of a trade policy on the prices of productive factors have important policy implications, particularly with regard to trade liberalization and protection. This paper examines the empirical evidence of the Stolper-Samuelson theorem for 16 major U.S. manufacturing industries. The theorem asserts that international trade reduces the prices of scarce productive factors and hence decreases their shares of income. The elasticities of prices of finished goods with respect to factor prices are estimated and then rearranged in the form of the row stochastic P-matrix in accordance with the proposition of Uekawa. The inverse of this matrix seems to confirm the weak version of the Stolper-Samuelson theorem.     

亚洲区域经济合作新领域：区域月良务贸易自由化

在对16个亚洲经济体参与的32件区域服务贸易协定进行经验研究的基础上,本文基于与多边服务贸易体系相对照的视角,对亚洲经济体参与区域服务贸易自由化的机制进行分析,并对亚洲经济体在区域贸易协定框架下的服务贸易自由化水平进行量化评估,以期在一定程度上识别区域服务贸易安排在多边服务贸易安排的基础上取得的进展。     

Must high commodity prices depress the world economy? An application of a world model system

The impact of higher primary commodity prices on the world economy is central to the North-South dialogue. The less developed countries are seeking a way to obtain a larger share of world income. In the context of current discussions of commodity price stabilization, UNCTAD's “integrated programme” for example, this is likely to mean higher commodity prices. A critical question is then, “Must higher prices for primary commodities depress the industrial economies?”The cyclical swing of 1973–1975 would seem to support the thesis that high primary commodity prices lead to recession in the industrial countries. Yet this experience is not conclusive evidence. Many complex forces, some natural and others policy induced, accounted for the recession. The impact of primary commodity prices must be considered in a full system, recognizing not only the direct costs, but also the resulting demand feedback. Under different circumstances, higher payments to the commodity producing LDCs may well increase demand for manufactures and stimulate exports and industrial activity in the developed countries.This paper uses a version of the LINK world model system to examine the linkages between commodity prices and world economic activity. In the first part we examine the demand feedback in a simple theoretical model of the interrelationships between commodity consumer countries and the commodity producers. In the second part we use an empirical system, COMLINK, the version of the LINK system that incorporates commodity models and commodity price linkages, to simulate various types of commodity price impacts.     

Trade liberalization and labor market disruption

In the depressed economic climates which have prevailed in recent years, the most common ground for opposing trade liberalization has been fear of the short-run adjustment costs, especially in the labor market. A computable general equilibrium model (ORANI) is used to explore the amount of occupational disruption (on a 72-occupation classification) likely to be generated in the Australian labor market by four alternative trade-liberalization packages, all of which reduce the average rate of protection by 25 percent. We conclude that in all cases the disruption involved would be slight relative to historically experienced occupational change.     

基于"环境优先"贸易保护论的国际营销对策

随着进口关税的下降,国际贸易透明度的提高,传统的贸易保护进一步受到有效限制,贸易保护主义正在积极寻求新的贸易保护手段,以实施其贸易保护战略。新兴的贸易保护手段多种多样,利用环保例外权的合法性进行贸易保护则是近年来发达国家常用的方法。这一保护方式以保护环境为出发点制定了一系列保护措施,以抵消发展中国家在资源与廉价劳动力方面的比较优势,从而阻碍了发展中国家的产品出口,作为发展中国家的中国企业要在充分认识“环境优先”贸易保护理论及其做法的基础上,采取有效的国际营销对策削弱这一贸易壁垒对企业的影响。     

Adjustment costs in labour markets and the distributional effects of trade liberalization: Analytics and calculations for Vietnam

This paper explores the implications of different labour market adjustment formulations for the analysis of trade liberalization across different sectors and households in the Vietnamese economy using computable general equilibrium (CGE) models. The model is calibrated to a model admissible Vietnamese data set for 1997.We use five different adjustment cost treatments in analyzing the effects of trade liberalization in Vietnam. We compare simulation results from each and show how different treatments can significantly affect the distributional impacts of policy reforms, such as the trade liberalization. First, labour is treated as fully mobile across all sectors in the economy. Second, the sectors of economy are broken down into the two blocks of agricultural and industrial-service sectors and labour markets are treated as segmented by sector block. No mobility of labour between blocks is allowed while labour within each sector block remains fully mobile. The third is the same as the second, but movement within each agricultural and industrial-service sector block involves transactions costs. In the fourth, mobility of workers from the agricultural to industrial-service sectors and vice versa is possible with transactions costs. Finally, we calibrate the model with unemployment but no adjustment costs for labour reallocation to explore how model results differ in terms of adjustments in the labour market and welfare effects.Our results indicate significant differences in the impacts from trade liberalization across these cases. The redistributional impact of trade liberalization is sharper against poor rural households with segmented labour markets and with transactions costs, while aggregate efficiency gains are similar to no adjustment cost analyses. The conclusion is the choice of model structure for labour markets is crucially important for the perceived distributional impacts of trade liberalization.     

The experience of the EEC Eurolink Project in modeling bilateral trade linkage equations

Following the basic philosophical approach of the LINK Project, which links various national econometric models built in different countries, the Commission of the European Communities has succeeded in linking the full-size quarterly econometric models of the four major European countries. The Eurolink Project is being extended to cover the other EEC countries as well as the United States, Canada, and Japan. The results reported in this paper are part of this larger project which attempts to link the EEC member economies in a trade and capital flows econometric model and explain the transmission of interdependent economic fluctuations from country to country. In the present study, the interconnection between the various economies is represented by bilateral trade flows only. Flows of invisibles and of financial capital are not completely studied and are not yet ready to be included in this report.The theoretical structural model with its bilateral trade supply and demand functions and the technique employed for the construction of bilateral import and export price indices are presented. Estimation results are shown and discussed with emphasis on their use for the analysis of international trade and for policy decision making.     

Protectionism: Old wine in new bottles

This paper addresses some new types of arguments that have recently arisen in defense of protectionism in developing and developing countries. The new sources of protectionism in developing countries discussed are: (1) recession-debt-crisis costs; (2) protection in the world economy; (3) wages and labor markets; (4) political requirements. The new arguments for protectionism in developed countries discussed are: (1) shift to the service economy; (2) defense; (3) threat of protection to induce foreign investment.     

Betting the farm on high food prices: A consumer based approach to agriculture protection

Our question is quite simple: If agriculture protectionism is a product of economic development, why is agriculture protected at such varying degrees by otherwise similarly developed countries? Previous attempts to fit agriculture into general models of trade policy formation have relied exclusively on producer demand for protection and merely assume the associated demand for lower prices that might come from consumers. Not surprisingly, these previous studies add only minimally to this strange phenomenon. Our method turns this approach on its head by modeling the political strategy of agriculture protection on the costs incurred by the consumer. Taking both producers and consumers into account more accurately reflects the intent of extant theoretical models of protectionism. Our results show that using the consumer as the dependent variable provides more robust results on common independent variables. Recent global events show that consumer disapproval of agriculture policies should not be underestimated by political scientists or politicians.     

Impact of Japanese investment in U.S. automobile production

The transfer of automobile production by Japanese firms to the United States represents a giant direct foreign investment. Using the disaggregated NIRA U.S.-Japan model in the framework of Project LINK, this article evaluates the impact of these investments on the U.S. and Japanese economies. The benefit in terms of auto production, capacity, employment, activity in supplier industries, and aggregate GNP in the United States is readily apparent. Japanese industry has incentives to move production into the United States to avoid protectionism and to guard against adverse movements of the exchange rate and production costs, but there is some loss in output and related variables in Japan.     

重新认识WTO

世界主义主张以WTO推进贸易自由化,促进各国经济和福利增长。民族主义则反对贸易自由化。WTO正是这个两种力量妥协的产物,它既体现了世界主义也包容了民族主义。现实的贸易体制是自由贸易与保护贸易畸轻畸重的组合。WTO并不像自由贸易理论所说的那样,对民族国家只有好处,没有坏处,它对民族国家有利也有弊。     

区域经济组织对全球贸易体制的挤出--基于中国视角的验证与对策

区域经济组织的兴起给多边贸易体制带来了一系列的挑战和冲击，其基本原因在于区域经济组织带来的积极影响以及多边贸易体制自身的消极因素，这些都为区域经济组织对多边贸易体制形成挤出效应埋下了隐患。这在现有所谓社会网络模型中得到充分验证。因此协调好二者之间的矛盾与冲突对于中国的贸易自由化和可持续发展就有着重大的意义。自从加入WTO以来，中国经济实力和贸易水平实现大幅度提升，中国有义务也有能力趋利避害，谋求消化区域经济组织对现有全球贸易体制的挤出效应，扭转两者零和博弈的内耗，进而追求自身与全球的经济贸易利益持续健康发展。     

The nature of child protection practices: an Irish case study

Child protection social work in Ireland has been expanding at a significant pace over the past decade, particularly since the implementation of the 1991 Child Care Act and the emergence of a number of child abuse 'scandals' since the early 1990s. One health board area in Ireland, itself subject to one of the most controversial child abuse inquiries, commissioned a research study into the nature of child protection practices in the area. The aim of the research was to evaluate the overall child protection system and to consider what impact, if any, new practice guidelines and procedures, implemented in the aftermath of the inquiry, had made on the service. This paper considers some of the key findings from the research and considers these in the context of the overall Irish child protection system. Three particular aspects of the research are focused on: the use of procedures and guidelines, the nature of interagency cooperation and the position of social workers within this, and the overall nature and direction of the child care system.     

Agricultural policies and migration in a U.S.-Mexico free trade area: A computable general equilibrium analysis

A United States-Mexico agreement to form a free trade area (FTA) is analyzed using an 11-sector, three-country, computable general equilibrium model that explicity models farm programs and labor migration. The model incorporates both rural-urban migration within Mexico and international migration between Mexico and the United States. In the model, sectoral import demands are specified with a flexible functional form, an empirical improvement over earlier specifications, which use a constant elasticity of substitution function. Using the model, we identify trade-offs among bilateral trade growth, labor migration, and agricultural program expenditures under alternative FTA scenarios. Trade liberalization in agriculture greatly increases rural- urban migration within Mexico and migration from Mexico to the United States. Migration is reduced if Mexico grows relative to the United States and also if Mexico retains farm support programs. However, the more support that is provided to the Mexican agricultural sector, the smaller is bilateral trade growth. The results indicate a policy trade-off between rapidly achieving gains from trade liberalization and providing a transition period long enough to assimilate displaced labor in Mexico without undue strain.     

Price controls, trade protectionism and political business cycles in the U.S. steel industry

The U.S. steel industry is subject to a microeconomic political business cycle resulting from U.S. Presidents designing protectionist policies on behalf of the steel industry; experiencing complaints from consumers and foreign producers as a result of the policy; modifying the policy which results in complaints from the steel industry; and finally, maneuvering policy back in favor of the industry to achieve re-election. Using a cointegrating vector error correction framework, this paper tests the hypothesized political business cycle for its effect on steel prices. We find that trade protectionism does not seem to have succeeded in its primary objective of supporting prices. By expending so much political capital on ineffective trade protection, the steel industry may have lost the opportunity to focus on more substantive issues that might have restrained factor cost and enhanced its competitive ability. The devolution of the steel industry, ironically, may have resulted from it's persistent pleas for protection. Political business cycles in the steel industry, with all its attendant negative consequences, would not occur if the steel industry did not continually lobby for protection.     

贸易自由化条件下中国住房金融政策研究

由于中国住房金融市场发展历史和政策原因 ,在市场竞争、业务运行、市场体系、金融工具和产品营销方面还存在诸多不足。因此 ,利用中国与西方发达国家住房金融政策比较研究的方法 ,借鉴相关住房金融政策经验 ,以建立、健全贸易自由化条件下的中国住房金融政策。应建立完善的住房金融体系 ,建立健全住房抵押贷款机制 ,实行差别利率等政策。     

A computational general equilibrium approach to the shadow pricing of trade restrictions and the adjustment of the exchange rate, with an application to Argentina

A general equilibrium model of an open economy in which there are ad valorem texes on domestic production and export activities, and import activities are subject to both tariffs and quotas is constructed. A domestic monetary asset, foreign exchange, and a corresponding nominal exchange rate are introduced and a numerical example of the model is constructed. The example is solved via the Scarf fixed point algorithm, first with taut quotas and then after having relaxed quotas. Various price indices are then used to guide programs designed to stabilize the trade balance against the quota liberalization. An empirical example, using Argentine data, is carried out to find the quota equivalent of a particular tariff.     

Conceptualising dignity in the context of social security: Bottom-up and top-down perspectives

Dignity and social security have been closely associated since at least the Universal Declaration of Human Rights in 1948, but there is a lack of clarity around what dignity means in this context. This article explores how two key stakeholders—out-of-work benefit recipients and policymakers—understand dignity in the context of social security, drawing on qualitative research with each group. The evidence presented notes a relative absence of direct references to dignity among policymakers, although related issues are nonetheless discussed, whereas benefit recipients commonly articulate experiences of undignified treatment and the negative impact this has on their lives. This article's exploration of dignity is of particular relevance to Scotland, where recent framework legislation includes the principle that their security system should be underpinned by “respect for the dignity of individuals.” The authors propose that a social security system that protects dignity must take account of distributional, relational, and intrinsic aspects of dignity—providing sufficient income, treating users with respect, and avoiding interventions or discourses that are disrespectful and dehumanizing. Further, the authors question whether it is possible for dignity to enjoy meaningful protection within highly disciplinary conditional welfare regimes.