Empirical aspects of protectionism: LINK results

General aspects of protectionism as they are revealed or treated in the LINK system are discussed in this paper. Attention is focused on the macroeconomic aspects of protection, about which relatively little is known: most of the vast body of knowledge on this subject concerns the microeconomic aspects of protection. Some simulations of trade liberalization (opposite of protectionism) and of protection within the context of the LINK system are reported. A movement away from protection would benefit the present world economy but not by a large enough extent to deal effectively with pressing international economic problems; therefore, trade liberalization within the context of a larger program of coordination policy among major industrial countries is examined. Finally, the relationship between protectionism and inflation is explored.     

Protectionism: An analysis from project LINK

The LINK system of world trade is used to examine present tendencies toward protectionism. In protectionist scenarios we increase the prices of manufactured imports into 13 LINK-OECD countries by 5, 10, and 20 percent respectively, for 1978–1979. If a country's import equations do not depend significantly on relative price, we impose corresponding quantitative import restrictions of 5, 10, and 20 percent. Smaller OECD countries, developing countries, and socialist countries are assumed to be nonprotectionist in these scenarios. The discrepancies between the values of leading variables in the protectionist scenarios and in a baseline case show the effects of the different degrees of protectionism assumed. The results describe and validate Adam Smith's principles of the gains from free trade.     

The demand for protection against exports of newly industrializing countries

Exports of manufacturers from newly industrializing countries have increased dramatically in recent years. Yet, in the importing countries—largely the highly developed, “old” industrial countries—the NICs' exports constitute even now an almost insignificant proportion of total imports of manufacturers. Is there, then, some particular reason why the exports concerned seem to be strongly resented by the importing countries, and particularly likely to be faced with trade barriers? The paper examines this issue, and identifies four possible sources of demand for such protection: (1) the factor content of the NICs' exports—specifically, their relative intensity in unskilled and semiskilled labor; (2) the nature of the exported goods, which consist largely of final consumer goods rather than of machinery and equipment; (3) the NICs' lack of retaliatory power; and (4) the context of a relatively stagnant world economy, suffering from high unemployment, which the expansion of manufactured exports from the NICs has had to face.     

基于"环境优先"贸易保护论的国际营销对策

随着进口关税的下降,国际贸易透明度的提高,传统的贸易保护进一步受到有效限制,贸易保护主义正在积极寻求新的贸易保护手段,以实施其贸易保护战略。新兴的贸易保护手段多种多样,利用环保例外权的合法性进行贸易保护则是近年来发达国家常用的方法。这一保护方式以保护环境为出发点制定了一系列保护措施,以抵消发展中国家在资源与廉价劳动力方面的比较优势,从而阻碍了发展中国家的产品出口,作为发展中国家的中国企业要在充分认识“环境优先”贸易保护理论及其做法的基础上,采取有效的国际营销对策削弱这一贸易壁垒对企业的影响。     

Intellectual property rights,informal economy,and FDI into developing countries

We explore the relationship between intellectual property rights (IPR), the informal economy, and foreign direct investment (FDI) into developing countries. Intuitively, stronger IPR protection attracts more FDI in countries with small informal economies but not in countries with large informal economies. The intuition is that the informal economy is a proxy for the quality of institutions. In institutionally strong countries, IPR protection promotes FDI by reducing illegal imitation and freeing up more resources for MNCs. Our empirical analysis, based on a threshold effect model, provides some evidence supportive of our model.     

Aspects of a new world development strategy II: Factors affecting the long-term prospects of developing nations

This paper explores some quantitative dimensions of the interdependence of rich and poor regions in the context of the United Nations World Model. It extends the original work on that model in three ways: (1) by updating some of the key parameters and exogenous variables in the light of recent data; (2) by developing a “control” solution to be used as a point of reference in policy simulations; and (3) by exploring the sensitivities of each of two groups of regions— developed and developing—to changes in one another's growth rates. Goals of closing the income gap between developed and developing regions and of increasing income levels in the latter are discussed.     

The Meaning of Globalization for Development Policy

The Secretary of State for International Development reviews the Government's development strategy. The core commitment is to help mobilize the international political will to meet the aims of the UN international poverty eradication strategy. This will require resource transfers in the form of aid as investment, if the poorest countries are to be enabled to develop more trade and become part of the global economy. Globalization increases wealth creation, yet there is a danger that some countries could become marginalized from the world economy. To avoid this, developing countries must become full participants on the global economic stage, shaping and influencing the global rules in line with their interests and needs. There are three key challenges at the top of the Government's agenda: (1) the mainstreaming of development issues in the formation of UK and EU policy, (2) encouragement and active support for the efforts of developing countries themselves to become active players on the world economic stage, (3) the building of partnerships to make this happen—with governments, with global economic institutions, with the business sector, with donors and with NGOs. Globalization is characterized by the pace of technological change, the emergence of a more sophisticated system of global economic rules—with the World Trade Organization now at centre stage alongside the IMF and the World Bank—and the increasingly important role of multinational companies. Responding to globalization is not an optional extra. The old models of development need to be rethought. The Department for International Development has a key role to play in this, by ensuring that policy-makers in the UK, within the EU and internationally take full account of development aspects from the outset.     

Dollar appreciation,deficit stimulation,and the new protectionism

This article probes whether contemporary U.S. protectionism arises from an appreciating dollar. It concludes that (a) an enrich-thy-neighbor policy of upvaluation has transformed the current U.S. economic recovery into an engine of global recovery; (b) flexible exchange rates continually equilibrate the balance of payments as evidenced in changed domestic—relative to foreign—prices, as well as in capital movements induced by interest-rate differentials resulting from exchange-rate shifts; and (c) flexible exchange rates automatically alter so as to maintain a country's competitive position in the world economy even when facing deficits at home and abroad.     

Betting the farm on high food prices: A consumer based approach to agriculture protection

Our question is quite simple: If agriculture protectionism is a product of economic development, why is agriculture protected at such varying degrees by otherwise similarly developed countries? Previous attempts to fit agriculture into general models of trade policy formation have relied exclusively on producer demand for protection and merely assume the associated demand for lower prices that might come from consumers. Not surprisingly, these previous studies add only minimally to this strange phenomenon. Our method turns this approach on its head by modeling the political strategy of agriculture protection on the costs incurred by the consumer. Taking both producers and consumers into account more accurately reflects the intent of extant theoretical models of protectionism. Our results show that using the consumer as the dependent variable provides more robust results on common independent variables. Recent global events show that consumer disapproval of agriculture policies should not be underestimated by political scientists or politicians.     

经济全球化与发展中国家可持续发展问题

贸易自由化进程日益加快,跨国公司的数量和规模不断扩大,金融全球化的影响日益加深,高科技的发展极大地拉近了经济全球化的进程。经济全球化趋势不可避免,它在促进发展中国家经济增长的同时,也影响到发展中国家的可持续发展。结合我国实际情况,应在国际政治经济秩序、能力建设、环保产业、技术创新和金融可持续发展方面采取相应的对策。     

Conceptualising the politics of social protection expansion in low income countries: The intersection of transnational ideas and domestic politics

The growing literature on social protection in low income developing countries has tended to focus on definitional debates, policy design and impact evaluations, with relatively little consideration of the ways in which politics shape policy. This article argues that politics needs to be at the centre of efforts to understand social protection and outlines a new conceptual framework for investigating this, with a particular focus on explaining the variation in progress made by low income countries in adopting and implementing social protection. We propose that an adapted ‘political settlements’ framework that incorporates insights from the literatures on welfare state development – notably ‘power constellations’ theory, discursive institutionalism and global policy networks – can help frame political commitment to social protection as flowing from the interaction of domestic political economy and transnational ideas. Importantly, this approach situates social protection within a broader political and policy context, and highlights the influence of underlying power relations at multiple levels.     

The Trade Liberalization Evaluation (TLE) Methodology

This research paper proposes a new trade analysis model to evaluate the trend and stages of trade liberalization of any country. This new trade analysis model is entitled “The Trade Liberalization Evaluation (TLE) Methodology.” The TLE Methodology will introduce new indexes and graphs.There are four basic phases in the implementation of TLE Methodology. The first phase is the design of the multi-input tariff database table by production sector (agriculture, heavy industry,¹ light industry² and services). The second is the measuring of the Trade Liberalization Index by Production Sector (Xi), it is divided by the Agriculture Trade Liberalization Index (X1), Heavy Industry Trade Liberalization Index (X2), Light Industry Trade Liberalization Index (X3), and Services Trade Liberalization Index (X4). The third phase is the measurement of the Area of Coverage of the Trade Liberalization (ACTL) index. The last phase is the measuring of the Trade Liberalization Stage (LTS) index.The general objective of TLE Methodology is to offer policy-makers and researchers a new analytical tool to study the trade liberalization trend and stages of any country from a global perspective—based on a group of indexes and graphs. The TLE Methodology is not intended to be a forecasting model in any case. However, its application is not limited to the study of a special group of countries or regions. It is not constrained by issues about the region or the development stages of any country in a region that is interested in integrating into a Free Trade Area. TLE Methodology, in effect, is a simple and flexible scheme, which can be applied to any case of trade liberalization.     

美国知识产权制度的历史发展

知识产权及其保护在世界经济发展中的作用日益凸显。美国的知识产权保护制度的发展经历了一个由不重视到重视的过程 ,在知识产权保护方面突出制度建设并加大执法力度。发展中国家加强知识产权保护亟待解决的问题 ,就是进一步完善保护体制 ,增强保护意识 ,加快培养专业人才。     

Input-output technologies and the effects of tariff reductions

Using input-output (IO) tables from several developed countries (United States, EEC, and Japan) and one developing country (Brazil), we calculate the effects of tariff removal using various combinations of these tables to represent technologies for the countries included in the Michigan Computational Model of World Production and Trade. Among the IO tables, Brazil's reflected unusually high shares of value added, low labor shares, and small supply elasticities. Supply elasticities for the developed countries were somewhat lower than for the United States. Using the Michigan model, our calculated effects of tariff reductions are overstated using the U.S. IO table to represent technologies for other developed countries. Further, for developing countries that use import licensing, the model shows considerable sensitivity to IO table specification. It is especially important, therefore, for computational purposes to obtain the most accurate information possible about IO structures of developing countries.     

A disaggregated model of world production and trade: An estimate of the impact of the Tokyo Round

We present in this paper a computational model of world production, trade, and employment that is disaggregated by country and sector and report on the application of the model to the changes in tariffs and quantifiable nontariff barriers negotiated in the Tokyo Round that was concluded in 1979. The model incorporates supply and demand functions and market-clearing conditions for 22 tradable industries, plus markets for 7 nontradable industries, in each of the 18 major industrialized countries and 16 major developing countries. The equations of the model are presented in the text and the explicit functional forms in an appendix. The implementation of the model is discussed briefly.Application of the model to the Tokyo Round suggested that there will be small but beneficial effects on trade, domestic prices, and economic welfare in practically all the major industrialized countries and in some of the major developing countries. Because many of the NTB codes negotiated in the Tokyo Round were stated in advisory terms, their impact cannot be evaluated unambiguously at present. Further, many existing NTBs of importance were exempted altogether from the negotiations. The Tokyò Round must be viewed accordingly as having dealt with a somewhat limited part of all interferences with trade.     

The economic policy mix, policy cooperation, and protectionism: Some aspects of macroeconomic interdependence among the United States, Japan, and other OECD countries

In this paper we examine the macroeconomic interdependence of Japan and the United States using the McKibbin-Sachs global (MSG) simulation model of the world economy. Our goal is to determine how shifts in macroeconomic policies in the United States or Japan affect the other country as well as the rest of the world. In particular, we examine the following three issues: (1) the likely macroeconomic ramifications for the United States, Europe, and Japan of significant budget cuts in the United States; (2) the macroeconomic implications of a protectionist tariff imposed by the United States; and (3) the scope for policy coordination among the United States, Japan, and Europe.     

Ageing and the changing role of the family and the community: An African perspective

Global ageing, the major social issue of the twenty-first century, will have greater social repercussions for developing countries. The fastest increase of older persons in terms of ratio in relation to younger people is happening in developing countries, and in Africa segregation of older people in rural areas will become manifest. While beneficial changes for women have accompanied modernization in many of the developing countries, the situation of older women appears to be particularly precarious. Social changes brought about by modernization are also profoundly affecting the traditional systems of care for older people. Even though most older people requiring care are still looked after within the informal structures of the family, this can no longer be taken for granted as we move into the new century. This paper critically reviews social protection systems and the resource constraints which characterize developing countries and warns against blind development of social security systems based on those of the industrialized countries. The paper argues for the design of intergenerational support back into mainstream social relations so that older persons are not marginalized and put at risk through social protection programmes which reinforce physical vulnerability stereotypes and stress welfare needs over and above older people's social and economic contributions to society     

Deforestation and the Environmental Kuznets Curve: A Cross-National Investigation of Intervening Mechanisms

Objective . We draw on ecological modernization theory and international political economy arguments to examine the sources of an environmental Kuznets curve (or EKC) that produces an inverted U-shaped rate of deforestation relative to economic development. Method . We use ordinary least squares regression with White's (1978) correction for possible heteroskedasticity to examine the rate of deforestation (1980–1995) in less developed countries. Results . Net of controls for initial forest stock and the quality of deforestation estimates, we find strong evidence for an EKC driven by (1) agglomeration effects linked to the level of urbanization, (2) rural-to-urban migration that partially offsets rural population pressure, (3) the growth of services-dominated urban economies, and (4) strong democratic states. We find little evidence that foreign debt or export dependence influence the deforestation rate. Conclusions . Although deforestation continues to pose pressing and potentially irreversible environmental risks, there is evidence of self-corrective ecological and modernization processes inherent in development that act to mitigate these risks.     

A framework for comparing social protection in developing and developed countries: The example of child benefits

Abstract   The article outlines a conceptual and theoretical framework for improved comparative analysis of publicly provided social protection in developing countries, drawing on the research tradition of the study of longstanding welfare democracies. An important element of the proposed institutional approach is the establishment of comparable qualitative and quantitative indicators for social protection. The empirical example of child benefits indicates that differences between developed and developing countries should not be exaggerated, and that the prevalence of child benefits in sub-Saharan African and Latin American countries today resembles the inter-war period (1919-1938) situation in developed regions.     

A model for the coordination of recovery policies in the OECD region

The paper presents a world econometric model of the LINK type, which is then applied to the study of the recovery prospects of the OECD economies. Specifically, several policy packages coordinated at the international level are assessed for the period 1978–1980.The model includes country specific macroeconomic structures for eight developed economies, and different type structures for five additional developing countries. The obvious policy and behavioral differences that exist between these two groups of countries are highlighted through the specification, in one case, of demand-oriented Keynessian models able to capture short-term cyclical phenomena. The supply orientation with several resource gaps (savings, foreign exchange, etc.) prevails for the developing economies. The two sections after the introduction review broadly the main modeling features of the project, including the international comparison of structural parameters. In the following sections several policy experiments are attempted. The underlying behavioral assumptions stress the community of interest that prevails among OECD economies. These experiments consider the case of stimulative policies adopted in (1) the United States alone, (2) three engine countries (United States, Federal Republic of Germany, and Japan), and (3) several developed countries that are part of the OECD system. Other experiments assume additional policy packages to correct present current account imbalances. The general conclusion of the study is that the prospects for economic recovery in the OECD area depend to a crucial extent on the ability of the member countries to agree on policies able to make the major economic indicators of each economy converge toward levels that are domestically manageable and mutually supporting.