MFN tariff treatment of imports from China: Effects on U.S. employment

This article estimates the effects on U.S. output and employment of granting most-favored-nation (MFN) tariff treatment to imports from the People's Republic of China (PRC). Import demand elasticities are used to estimate changes in imports resulting from the lower tariff rates. A highly disaggregated U.S. input-output table and labor-output ratios are used to convert changes in imports into changes in domestic output and employment at a detailed sectorial level. U.S. import restraints on the textile and apparel industry are incorporated into the analysis. The article explores the implications of increased imports from the PRC for U.S., PRC, and LDC policy makers.     

Effects of fiscal policy on the U.S. economy: Empirical estimates of crowding out

This study examines the short-and intermediate-run effects of a permanent reduction in U.S. personal income taxes on interest rates, output, prices, exchange rates, and the current account, holding government spending and money growth fixed. The theoretical analysis suggests that interest rates and domestic consumption will rise but that net exports and interest-sensitive expenditures will fall. Also, the foreign currency value of the dollar will rise except possibly when output increases due to positive supply-side effects or to elimination of unemployment. These theoretical conclusions are essentially confirmed by simulations using the Federal Reserve Board's MPS quarterly econometric model and its multicountry model.     

扩张与收缩：论美国外交的周期性

自1801年托马斯·杰斐逊总统上台以来，美国外交即呈现出“扩张——收缩——再扩张——再收缩……”的周期模式。从上一次扩张到下一次扩张或从上一次收缩到下一次收缩的平均时间约为45年左右。迄今为止，美国外交经历了四个半周期。美国经济的周期性波动、国际局势的变动、国内思潮的转换等因素是推动美国外交扩张与收缩的主要动力。当前美国外交开始步入第五个周期的收缩期，这将对世界和中国产生重大影响。     

International transmission of monetary and global commodity price shocks to Turkey

This paper explores the international transmission mechanisms on the macroeconomic and monetary variables of Turkey and hence proposes some particular policy implications. The effects of monetary shocks stemming from the U.S. and the European area, and global commodity price shocks are investigated using a structural vector auto-regression (SVAR) approach. For the analysis, we use monthly data from 2002M01 to 2016M06 and we analyze the transmission mechanism in Turkey using two different SVAR model specifications. Our results reveal that shocks coming from the U.S. and the Euro area lead to significantly different responses on industrial production, consumer prices, real effective exchange rates, and the domestic interest rate, with the Euro area monetary expansion having more explicit and positive effects on the real economy. The global commodity price shocks affect the Turkish macroeconomic variables in a similar but much less powerful fashion than that of the U.S. monetary expansion. As our empirical findings point out that the Turkish economy is vulnerable to global monetary and commodity price shocks. This vulnerability necessitates moving to a sustainable growth path consistent with a sustainable current account balance and a sustainable private and government debt coupled with a strengthened macroprudential regime and comprehensive structural reforms.     

Productivity growth,external shocks,and capital inflows in Chile: A general equilibrium analysis

This paper uses a computable general equilibrium model to analyze the growth path of the Chilean economy during 1977–1981. During that period a comprehensive package of reforms liberalized international trade and removed restrictive labor legislation. As a result of the reforms, there were large changes in relative prices and in the structure of production and demand, and the economy enjoyed unprecedented growth with declining inflation. But large macroeconomic imbalance become evident toward the end of the period and in 1982 Chile experienced an abrupt and severe recession. Taking the real exchange rate as an exogenous policy variable, and using the observed levels of employment growth and foreign capital inflows, this paper compares model-generated growth paths with those of the economy. First, the benchmark simulation path is used to estimate the magnitude and pattern of growth and productivity change during the 1971–1981 period. Next, counter-factual simulations are used to assess how Chile's economic performance would have differed if (a) external events had been different; and (b) foreign capital inflows had been different. The analysis suggests that the macroeconomic imbalances that led to the crisis in 1982 were exacerbated by the large capital inflows and real exchange rate appreciation that resulted from the use of the exchange rate as a stabilization device.     

中美证券市场在险价值比较分析

在险价值作为金融行业计量市场风险的一种工具,已经被广泛接受。从期望在险价值的概念,计算出中美证券市场的期望在险价值并从实证研究中得出以下三个结论:从投资风险角度来看,中国证券市场的投资风险高于美国证券市场,同时证实上海证券市场的投资风险略高于深圳证券市场;就美国证券市场而言,投资风险最近十年低于整个100年的风险;上证指数和深成指数自设定以来季度在险价值服从分布,而美国整个100年的道琼斯工业指数的季度不服从分布,但近十年的季度服从分布。     

Country preferences,currency values and policy issues

The paper sketches an approach to exchange rate modeling that links currency values to the prospective income streams associated with claims on physical capital in different countries. This framework represents an alternative to general equilibrium models in which asset preferences are derived essentially from the use of different transactions currencies in different countries. The new framework provides perspectives on: the safe-haven phenomenon; the role for monetary policy and the debate over fixed versus flexible exchange rates; the effectiveness of exchange market intervention; and the dual nature of policies toward capital flows and policies toward tradable goods industries.     

Debt, deficits and the dollar

This paper examines the relationship between the budget deficit and the trade deficit in the United States by presenting new evidence on the impact effects of debt disturbances on the exchange rate. Based upon estimates of a general two-country portfolio-balance model, we find evidence that increases in the U.S. debt stock have caused an appreciation in the U.S. dollar relative to the German mark and the Canadian dollar over the period 1973II–1987II. Correspondingly, this paper presents evidence on the linkage between the budget deficit and the trade deficit arising through the exchange rate.     

Distributional implications of changes in U.S. petroleum taxation

This article develops a methodology based on input-output relations for the evaluation of excise tax incidence. Since many excise taxes are levied on products that are used not only in final consumption but also as intermediate inputs in the production of other commodities, estimation of the tax burden by the conventional methodology of using direct final consumption may yield inadequate and perhaps misleading results. The input-output methodology developed in this article is applied to the case of the U.S. taxation of petroleum products and the empirical results are compared with similar ones obtained by the U.S. Congressional Budget Office.     

Policy modeling of foreign exchange rates

This paper is neither a complete survey of empirical work on exchange rate determination, nor a review of the ballooning volume of theoretical models. It is instead an attempt to classify the main alternative approaches to modeling exchange rates. I shall concentrate on approaches that can be used to assess the effects of alternative policies. There will be four further sections in the paper. The first three sections will each deal withthe structure, empirical support, and policy consequences of three main types of model: purchasing power parity models emphasizing the close and immediate relation of goods markets; interest rate parity models emphasizing the close and immediate international linkage of markets for financial assets; and structural balance-of-payments models that do not assume either of the above linkages to be so strong and immediate as to eliminate the other, and that hence require separate (but interdependent) modeling of trade and capital linkages in the determination of exchange rates. Each of these main categories has many rather distinct models within it, and some models are not easily classified into one of the three categories; I hope that the three-way split will nevertheless serve to make some distinctions that are important for policy modeling.In the final section I shall try to summarize the available model results that pertain to national and international policy choices under a system of more flexible exchange rates, and then to suggest where more or better model building might usefully increase the amount of information available to guide policy decisions.     

Political confrontation over fiscal processes: The impact of the U.S. Congressional Budget Act

In July 1974 the U.S. Congressional Budget Act was signed into law. This legislation was the result of a heavily fought political confrontation between President Nixon and Congress over who controlled the Federal budget. In addition to the issue of control, the Act was prompted by dissatisfaction with the procedures used by Congress to determine Federal receipts and expenditures. The purpose of this paper is to assess the impact this legislation had on the U.S. economy in its early years.The first section of the paper sets up a simple modeling framework. The model is specified so as to illustrate how a change in the budget process resulting from the Congressional Budget Act could potentially produce changes in the level of total output. This section also explains the derivation of a tax and expenditure series used in the model's empirical testing. The second section addresses some of the theoretical issues, and presents the results of simulations based on the Chase, Wharton, and Data Resources econometric models. Broad conclusions are gathered in the final section.     

美国军方视阈中的美日同盟关系——基于《美日行政协定》草拟过程的分析

《美日行政协定》是构成战后美日同盟关系及决定走向的重要文本,无论是协定内容中的每一项规定,还是协定草拟过程中的每一个阶段,都反映出美国决策机构关于“美军驻日条件”的认知及美日同盟关系的定位。尽管处于“美军驻日条件”界定主导地位的美国军方,始终将日本看作是一个被征服的国家,没有作为一个对等盟国来看待,体现出战胜国对战败国应享有的绝对优越驻留条件。但是,在日本着力实施亲美的协调主义外交的强大攻势下,迫于来自美国国务院的压力,基于远东冷战局势的变化,从美日“良好政治关系”维护视角考量,美国军方不得不从坚决反对日方关于“美军驻日条件”的修改意见,转而做出让步。迄今,该协定维系着美日同盟关系,但“美军驻日条件”始终使日本处于“非正常国家”地位,制约了日本作为主权国家所应享有的对驻日美军的控制性权利。     

Asset markets and foreign exchange intervention: A model of the Belgo-Luxemburg economic union

In this article a general formulation of government intervention policies in the foreign exchange market is integrated in the framework of an asset market model. The policy reaction function is based on a trade off between exchange rate and reserve stock fluctuations; constant exchange rates and a pure float are derived as limiting cases of the intervention schedule. An exchange rate equation is derived from the short run portfolio equilibrium of the model and is successfully tested using data for the Belgo-Luxemburg Economic Union (1967–1979). Our policy conclusions contrast the European Snake constraints for the Belgian Franc with Artus's findings (IMF Staff Papers XXIII(2), July 1976) for the leading DM.     

Financial liberalization, exchange rates and stock prices: Exogenous shocks in four Latin America countries

This paper provides an analysis of the long-run relationships and short-run dynamics between stock prices and exchange rates as well as the channels through which exogenous shocks influence these markets. We use monthly data for the period January 1980 to February 2009 for four Latin America, namely, Argentina, Brazil, Chile and Mexico. We conduct our analysis by means of cointegration analysis and multivariate Granger causality tests. The main finding of our analysis suggests that stock and foreign exchange markets in these economies are positively related and that the U.S. stock market acts as a channel for these links. Moreover, it is shown that these links are independent of foreign exchange restrictions. Finally, stability tests proposed by Hansen and Johansen (1993) are applied and it is shown that the dimension of the cointegration space is sample independent while the estimated coefficients exhibit instability in recursive estimations. Instability in these long-run relationships is evident during the Mexican currency crisis of 1994-1995, the Asian crisis of 1997 and the 2007-2009 credit and financial crisis.     

Exchange rate systems and relative prices

The article relaxes one of the assumptions required for exchange-rate-system neutrality, without abandoning flexible prices. It assumes that taxes or restrictions on international transactions are expected to differ under pegged and flexible exchange rates. Governments are more willing to impose restrictions or taxes when they have a low level of international reserves and operate under a system of pegged exchange rates where further losses are possible. Expectations about these policy reactions change the behavior of equilibrium relative prices: they may vary less under pegged than under flexible exchange rates, as they appear to do in the real world.     

Mexican Immigrant Self‐Employment Along the U.S.‐Mexico Border: An Analysis of 2000 Census Data*

Objective. This study explores the entrepreneurial tendencies of Mexican immigrants in metropolitan statistical areas (MSAs) on the U.S. side of the Mexican border vis‐à‐vis the U.S. interior. Methods. Using 2000 Census data available in the 5% Integrated Public Use Microdata Series, we empirically analyze the self‐employment rates and earnings of Mexican immigrants residing in U.S. cities near Mexico versus those in nonborder MSAs. Results. Our findings indicate that Mexican immigrants in MSAs along the U.S.‐Mexico border have significantly higher self‐employment rates (but lower earnings) than their counterparts in the rest of the United States and non‐Hispanic whites in border cities. Explanations for these findings include the existence of trade opportunities in U.S. border cities as well as intense labor market competition that crowds a greater share of immigrants into self‐employment. Conclusion. Immigration reform that curtails the immigration flow from Mexico might hinder small business formation and economic development on the U.S. side of the Mexican border.     

Importation,SES-selective acculturation,and the weaker SES-health gradients of Mexican immigrants in the United States

Previous studies find U.S. immigrants have weaker socioeconomic gradients in health relative to non-Hispanic Whites and their U.S.-born co-ethnics. Several explanations have been advanced but few have been tested empirically. We use data from the Mexican Family Life Survey and the U.S. National Health Interview Survey, including longitudinal data in the former measuring socioeconomic status (SES) and health previous to emigration, to test if (1) immigrants “import” their gradients from the sending country, or if (2) they may be changing as a result of SES-graded acculturation among Mexican migrant men in two health indicators: obesity and current smoking. We find evidence consistent with the first hypothesis: the gradients of migrants measured prior to coming to the U.S. are not statistically different from those of nonmigrants, as the gradients of each are relatively weak. Although the gradients for obesity and smoking appear to weaken with time spent in the U.S., the differences are not significant, suggesting little support for the selective acculturation hypothesis.     

后金融危机背景下人民币汇率稳定问题探析

在当前美国经济出现困难的情况下,美国炮制人民币升值的言论并强迫人民币升值,实际上是试图遏制中国并将其国内问题转嫁给中国。经过长期不断的改革,现阶段人民币汇率已经进入相对合理和稳定的运行状态。总体来说,目前的人民币汇率与中国的经济发展基本相适应,适合中国的对外开放和经济发展的要求。因此,现阶段必须注意保持人民币汇率的相对稳定和人民币汇率改革的循序渐进。为了应对人民币升值的压力,中国应在坚持汇率主权的原则下,积极地推进战略性进口,改善外汇投资和储备结构,鼓励中国企业到国外投资,加强与国际社会的对话和磋商。