转变外贸增长方式下的政策调整分析

加入世界贸易组织以来,我国外贸伴随着全球化的不断升级而快速增长,但总体贸易格局以加工贸易为主要方式、外商投资企业为主要出口主体、中低技术机械电子类产品为主要出口商品类别的特征并未发生根本的变化。这种局面使得我国外贸顺差不断扩大,外部失衡严重,贸易摩擦日益增多,同时过高贸易占款也加大了国内流动性过剩和人民币升值压力。因此,要改变这种贸易格局,转变贸易增长方式,政府就必须不断深化对相关外贸政策组合的调整,引导这种转变。文章从转变外贸增长方式内涵出发,对各种政策调整的依据、目标、影响进行分析,从而提出优化政策组合的各种措施。     

新时期的日美贸易谈判:成果与趋势探析

特朗普执政后,开始实行“美国优先”和贸易保护政策,反对多边主义,主张双边谈判。在美国对日存在大量贸易逆差、中美贸易摩擦持续、日本加快扩展对外经贸关系的形势下,美国与日本缔结双边贸易协定、加强经贸合作的必要性明显上升。2019年4月,美日启动双边贸易谈判,并在半年内签署了初步贸易协定,其范围基本未超日本所要求的货物贸易内容,仅增加了数字贸易领域,反映出日本与美国欲在新一轮国际贸易体系转型中引领规则与标准制定的战略意向。日美贸易协定对日本的预期经济效果低于CPTPP和日欧EPA,尤其是日本的农业将面对更加激烈的竞争。依照特朗普政府对日谈判方针,日美今后还将围绕汇率条款、原产地规则、投资及服务贸易等问题展开谈判,日本仍会面临来自美国的压力与挑战。     

美国对日外交的多维审视

美国总统奥巴马执政后,为应对美国经济实力相对下降、中国崛起和日本政坛"地震"的多重挑战,采用"巧实力"外交手段维持美国在东亚的优势地位。美国政府以东亚地区安全局势骤变为由,利用自身的军事优势、联盟体系强行介入东亚地区事务,形成对东亚地区的"主导"。通过对日多层次的"沟通",影响日本当局对区域安全局势的判断,使日本放弃了塑造新的地区秩序意向,回归到寄自身安全于美国东亚安全战略结构的传统道路上,最终完成了对鸠山政权调整日美两国关系意图的压制,在日本政权更迭之际成功地维系了美日两国"主从"关系的现状。美国对日外交对我国维护东北亚安全利益具有重要启示。     

Price controls, trade protectionism and political business cycles in the U.S. steel industry

The U.S. steel industry is subject to a microeconomic political business cycle resulting from U.S. Presidents designing protectionist policies on behalf of the steel industry; experiencing complaints from consumers and foreign producers as a result of the policy; modifying the policy which results in complaints from the steel industry; and finally, maneuvering policy back in favor of the industry to achieve re-election. Using a cointegrating vector error correction framework, this paper tests the hypothesized political business cycle for its effect on steel prices. We find that trade protectionism does not seem to have succeeded in its primary objective of supporting prices. By expending so much political capital on ineffective trade protection, the steel industry may have lost the opportunity to focus on more substantive issues that might have restrained factor cost and enhanced its competitive ability. The devolution of the steel industry, ironically, may have resulted from it's persistent pleas for protection. Political business cycles in the steel industry, with all its attendant negative consequences, would not occur if the steel industry did not continually lobby for protection.     

Agriculture,trade, and macroeconomics: The U.S. case

The persistent appreciation of the U.S. dollar from 1980 through 1984 raise the issue of macroeconomic impacts on trade sectors as a critical policy concern. In this article a six-variable vector autoregressive model is utilized to evaluate the dynamic effects of macroeconomic shocks on U.S. agriculture, a key trade sector. The results suggest that the impacts are substantial. Expansion of the money supply or a decline in the real interest rate or the real value of the dollar has a positive effect on agricultural exports and relative prices, whereas autonomous inflationary shocks have negative effects.     

Trade liberalization and factor prices: An application to the U.S. manufacturing sector

The effects of a trade policy on the prices of productive factors have important policy implications, particularly with regard to trade liberalization and protection. This paper examines the empirical evidence of the Stolper-Samuelson theorem for 16 major U.S. manufacturing industries. The theorem asserts that international trade reduces the prices of scarce productive factors and hence decreases their shares of income. The elasticities of prices of finished goods with respect to factor prices are estimated and then rearranged in the form of the row stochastic P-matrix in accordance with the proposition of Uekawa. The inverse of this matrix seems to confirm the weak version of the Stolper-Samuelson theorem.     

美国文化产业发展的特点及其启示

我国把文化产业作为"十二五"时期国民经济和社会发展的支柱产业,文化产业将迎来快速发展的黄金时期。通过介绍美国文化产业的发展概况,分析美国文化产业的发展特点,从资本要素供给、人力资本形成、科学技术与文化产品有机融合以及产业集群效应四个方面提出了其对我国文化产业发展的启示。     

Dollar appreciation,deficit stimulation,and the new protectionism

This article probes whether contemporary U.S. protectionism arises from an appreciating dollar. It concludes that (a) an enrich-thy-neighbor policy of upvaluation has transformed the current U.S. economic recovery into an engine of global recovery; (b) flexible exchange rates continually equilibrate the balance of payments as evidenced in changed domestic—relative to foreign—prices, as well as in capital movements induced by interest-rate differentials resulting from exchange-rate shifts; and (c) flexible exchange rates automatically alter so as to maintain a country's competitive position in the world economy even when facing deficits at home and abroad.     

The experience of the EEC Eurolink Project in modeling bilateral trade linkage equations

Following the basic philosophical approach of the LINK Project, which links various national econometric models built in different countries, the Commission of the European Communities has succeeded in linking the full-size quarterly econometric models of the four major European countries. The Eurolink Project is being extended to cover the other EEC countries as well as the United States, Canada, and Japan. The results reported in this paper are part of this larger project which attempts to link the EEC member economies in a trade and capital flows econometric model and explain the transmission of interdependent economic fluctuations from country to country. In the present study, the interconnection between the various economies is represented by bilateral trade flows only. Flows of invisibles and of financial capital are not completely studied and are not yet ready to be included in this report.The theoretical structural model with its bilateral trade supply and demand functions and the technique employed for the construction of bilateral import and export price indices are presented. Estimation results are shown and discussed with emphasis on their use for the analysis of international trade and for policy decision making.     

全球产业链、供应链重构背景下日本供应链安全保障的新动向

新冠肺炎疫情在全球的大暴发加快了全球产业链、供应链重构的进程。对严重依赖海外资源和市场的日本而言,供应链安全的重要性不言而喻。受贸易环境不确定性以及新冠肺炎疫情蔓延的影响,日本政府加大了对供应链安全保障的重视程度,并强化了相关政策和资金投入。鉴于日本在亚洲生产网络中的地位以及此次供应链安全保障政策调整中的价值观取向,日本在供应链安全保障领域的新动向和新调整将给亚洲区域生产网络以及中日两国间的产业链、供应链合作带来深远影响,值得关注和研究。     

美国军方视阈中的美日同盟关系——基于《美日行政协定》草拟过程的分析

《美日行政协定》是构成战后美日同盟关系及决定走向的重要文本,无论是协定内容中的每一项规定,还是协定草拟过程中的每一个阶段,都反映出美国决策机构关于“美军驻日条件”的认知及美日同盟关系的定位。尽管处于“美军驻日条件”界定主导地位的美国军方,始终将日本看作是一个被征服的国家,没有作为一个对等盟国来看待,体现出战胜国对战败国应享有的绝对优越驻留条件。但是,在日本着力实施亲美的协调主义外交的强大攻势下,迫于来自美国国务院的压力,基于远东冷战局势的变化,从美日“良好政治关系”维护视角考量,美国军方不得不从坚决反对日方关于“美军驻日条件”的修改意见,转而做出让步。迄今,该协定维系着美日同盟关系,但“美军驻日条件”始终使日本处于“非正常国家”地位,制约了日本作为主权国家所应享有的对驻日美军的控制性权利。     

Caring and the generation of social capital: Two models for a positive relationship

Johansson S, Leonard R, Noonan K. Caring and the generation of social capital: two models for a positive relationship When caring is linked to social capital, it is generally assumed that the nature of the relationship is that social capital is a resource that can be used for care work. When there is inadequate funding of aged care services by the state, then social capital may be seen as a substitute for economic and human capital. Caring, therefore, is seen as a drain on capital. However, this does not have to be the case. Aged care services, if thoughtfully designed, can not only consume social capital, but also generate it. Two models of elder care, one Swedish and one Australian, have been identified which specifically address the generation of social capital. In each case, the services and facilities have been developed by third‐sector organisations with a strong community development focus, often in the face of resistance from state‐run or medically oriented services.     

The impact of the Soviet Union upon the U.S. feed/livestock sector— An assessment

In this article, the impact of volatile Soviet Union corn imports on the U.S. feed/livestock sector is analyzed using an econometric model. The model's attention to supply response when feed price changes enables it to determine the nature of the effect of exogenous shocks across feed and livestock sectors. The model is used in historical simulation to demonstrate the effects of actual and alternative paths of variable Soviet import demand and to explore the difficulties of deriving a stabilizatior policy for these linked sectors.     

Do healthy diets in Europe matter to the environment? A quantitative analysis

Final consumption of food products figures amongst the strongest contributors to negative environmental impacts in Europe, with the production of beef and pork at agricultural level being the main responsible part of the food supply chain. This article analyses quantitatively the environmental impact of changing European diets. The environmental impact of European consumption is determined with an environmental extended input-output analysis, supplemented by a partial equilibrium model reflecting changes of the agricultural sector to modified diets. It results that agricultural production does not decrease significantly in reaction to reduced food consumption, due to a changed trade balance and substitution effects.     

《日美半导体协议》冲击下的日本半导体产业发展研究——基于日本高科技企业经营业绩的分析

自20世纪70年代末,在"本政府的支持下,"本半导体产业实现跨越式发展,进而引发"美间的半导体摩擦。美国采取限制进口、阻碍"本引入先进技术等措施抑制"本半导体产业发展,"美两国还于1986年签订了《"美半导体协议》。通过分析"本高科技企业经营业绩的微观数据发现:《"美半导体协议》在短期内对"本半导体企业的营业收入、净利润及净资产收益率等企业竞争力指标产生了负面影响;"本半导体企业通过调整生产经营方式、合理布局产业链、调整经营结构、加强自主创新等方式,在中期内一定程度改善了企业的生产经营状况,但"本半导体产业的持续发展受到阻碍。在中美经贸摩擦严峻的背景下,中国的高科技企业或可从中获得启示。     

MFN tariff treatment of imports from China: Effects on U.S. employment

This article estimates the effects on U.S. output and employment of granting most-favored-nation (MFN) tariff treatment to imports from the People's Republic of China (PRC). Import demand elasticities are used to estimate changes in imports resulting from the lower tariff rates. A highly disaggregated U.S. input-output table and labor-output ratios are used to convert changes in imports into changes in domestic output and employment at a detailed sectorial level. U.S. import restraints on the textile and apparel industry are incorporated into the analysis. The article explores the implications of increased imports from the PRC for U.S., PRC, and LDC policy makers.     

Free trade,food-processing,and migration: An analysis of Mexican immigration in the U.S. Great Plains Region

This paper empirically identifies the factors driving Mexican immigration into the U.S. Great Plains region, focusing especially on the role of work in the Mexican and U.S. food-processing sectors, which in the context of NAFTA-induced foreign direct investments, opens up paths for migration along occupational lines into the U.S. from Mexico. Using a unique dataset on Mexican migration, the study addresses three related questions in a series of multivariate logistic regression analyses. First, is employment in the U.S. food-processing sector associated with Mexican migration into the Great Plains region? Second, does employment in the Mexican food-processing sector predict employment in the Great Plains food-processing sector? Finally, is the political–economic context linking Mexico and the U.S. related to the formation of occupational channels linking the food-processing sectors in Mexico and the U.S.? The findings demonstrate that the U.S. food-processing sector is a strong predictor of Mexican migration to the Great Plains region; Mexican migration is strongly channeled along occupational lines from Mexico to the U.S.; and the implementation of NAFTA, a period of intensive political–economic integration, strengthens the occupational channel between the food-processing sectors.     

Growth,inequality and innovation: A CGE analysis of India

This paper probes into the growth and distributional consequences of four basic policy options emanating from the three sources of economic growth, namely, physical capital, human capital and technological progress, with the help of a computable general equilibrium model of India. The simulation results show that, the efficacy of physical capital accumulation in augmenting growth and abating income inequality is greater than that of human capital accumulation. In the long term, however, the latter overtakes the former in promoting growth, but inequality worsens. When the two policies are commingled, growth improves but it continues to be inequality-augmenting. Finally, with concomitant Hicks-neutral technological progress, not only is growth enhanced further, but it turns out to be significantly inequality-mitigating. The emerging policy lesson is that any integrated policy of boosting investments in physical as well as human capital must be closely bound up with technological progress for growth to be inclusive.     

基于碳资本存量的碳排放权分配方案（英文）

为应对气候变化,全球学者提出了基于现期排放量及历史排放量的不同减排方案,但由于其难以调和发达国家和发展中国家的利益,所以不能得到普遍认可。本文提出了碳资本存量的概念,认为碳资本存量对各国当代人生活质量有很大的影响,因而它可以度量包括发达国家在内的各国应承担的历史排放责任。本文根据前人研究成果及相关数据,计算了目前中美日三国水泥、钢、铜、铝的社会蓄积量,研究设定了上述物质的碳排放系数,并在此基础上计算出中美日三国当前物质存量所内涵的碳资本量。结果表明,虽然目前中国碳资本总量已经超过美国和日本,但美日两国人均碳资本是中国的3倍。因此,发达国家承担本国历史温室气体排放责任有其坚实的物质基础,发达国家民众承担本国历史温室气体排放也有其清晰的责任链条。本文提出全球碳减排方案的设计应包括两类账户,一是基于各国人均碳资本差异的考虑历史责任的公正账户,二是基于目前各国人口数量的考虑当期公平的平等账户。本方案的优点在于有清晰的理论依据,可平衡发达国家及发展中国家的利益,并促进全球技术合作与转移,共同应对气候变化。     

美国核政策调整与国际核不扩散机制的前景

国际核不扩散机制是美国防止核扩散,限制对手核力量以实现自身利益的重要手段,是美国维系其主导的世界核秩序的重要干预变量;而核不扩散机制的内在运行逻辑,也使得美国核政策成为决定该机制发展方向的最主要变量。因此,奥巴马政府核政策的调整,势必对核不扩散机制的维持和发展产生深刻影响。中国是现行核不扩散机制的重要参与方,美国核政策的调整必将通过国际核不扩散机制这一干预变量给中国造成直接或间接影响。