持续推动农民增收的几点思考

<正>2023年12月,中央经济工作会议强调要“强化农民增收举措”,中央农村工作会议进一步指出要“实施农民增收促进行动”。这些工作部署突出体现了农民收入增长在经济工作全局和“三农”工作中的重要性。一、农村居民的收入现状党的十八大以来,中国农村居民的人均可支配收入（以下简称“人均收入”）保持稳步增长,2014年首次突破1万元,2022年突破2万元（为20 133元）。随着农民人均收入的稳步增长,城乡人均收入比从2013年的2.81下降到2022年的2.45。不过,同一时期城乡人均收入的绝对差距仍在扩大,且农民人均收入的增长率随时间不断下降。例如,2013年全国农民人均收入同比增长率为9.33%,到2022年下降至4.20%。2015年起,工资性收入超过家庭经营净收入成为农民收入的最主要来源,家庭农业生产对农户收入增长的贡献呈现下降趋势。     

基于精算模型的“新农保”个人账户替代率研究

文章以2009年9月国务院发布的《关于开展新型农村社会养老保险试点的指导意见》为依据,建立新农保个人账户精算模型,测算农村人均纯收入不同增长预期下个人账户的替代率水平,分析新农保替代率的影响因素。研究发现,参保年龄、缴费档次的选择、收入增长率和缴费方式等都对个人账户替代率水平有较大影响。因此,在农村居民人均纯收入稳步增长的情况下,要维持一定的个人账户替代率水平,不仅要鼓励农民延长缴费年限、选择较高档次的缴费标准,还应建立个人缴费和政府补贴自动调节机制,根据农村人均纯收入的增加适当调高个人缴费和政府补贴金额。     

天津市维吾尔族外来人口就业与生活状况调查报告

新疆伽师县近36万人口中,维吾尔族占98%,是典型的少数民族县,也是国家级贫困县。近年来,伽师县重点发展订单式劳务经济,走出了一条迅速脱贫的路子,使2004~2006年全县农民人均收入平均每年增长23.65%,2007年上半年劳务收入即接近2006年全年劳务收入。本文以问卷调查方式研究了伽师县在天津市的订单劳务经济。认为伽师县的做法值得全国200多个少数民族贫困县借鉴。     

西北地区农村居民收入结构：内部差异及影响因素

农民增收一直是中国“三农”问题的核心。促进农民增长不仅是提高农村居民生活水平的需要,同时也是扩大内需、转变经济发展方式的内在要求。改革开放以来,随着中国的工业化、城镇化进程不断加快,农村剩余劳动力向城市及非农产业大量转移,农村居民的收入来源更加多元化,非农收入的比重持续提高,农村居民的收入结构发生了显著变化。基于以上分析,本文研究了20世纪90年代以来西部地区农村居民收入结构变动特点、内部区域差异及影响因素。并在此基础上,提出促进西部农村居民收入增长的政策建议。     

劳动力流动对农村经济的影响效应——基于对四川省调查数据的分析

本文以国家社科基金课题组2010年初在四川省63个自然村有无外出务工家庭的问卷调查为研究样本,分析四川省农村劳动力流动的个体特征,劳动力流动对农民家庭收支、福利及农户农业生产的影响。结果发现:农村劳动力流动对增加农村居民收入、缓解农民家庭贫困、改善农民家庭福利状况及促进土地流转具有积极效应;对农户劳动力和土地等基本资源的合理配置具有一定的促进作用,但对农业产出率的提高和技术进步的作用不显著。     

统筹解决贵州人口问题的思考

贵州地处内陆山区，是一个典型的以农业人口为主、“欠发达、欠开发”省份，人口与经济、社会、资源、环境的矛盾十分突出。2008年，全省人均生产总值为8824元，农民人均纯收入为2797元，分别仅为全国平均水平的38．98％和58．75％；全省人口密度为225．6人／平方公里，约比全国多90人；人均耕地不足0．66亩，低于联合国粮农组织规定的人均0．8亩的警戒线。     

《流动人口计划生育管理和服务工作若干规定》问答(三)

九、户籍地与现居住地在征收流动人口社会抚养费时有何具体现定? 答:《规定》要求户籍地与现居住地应当互相配合,按照《社会抚养费征收管理办法》的有关规定,共同做好流动人口社会抚养费的征收工作。明确规定:(1)确定由现居住地征收的,户籍地应当协助提供当事人实际收入和当地城镇居民年人均可支配收入(农村居民年人均纯收入)的数额;(2)确定由户籍地征收的,     

重庆区域经济差异分析兼论劳动力大规模转移的经济效应

重庆区域经济呈现以下几个特征：区县差异悬殊、地带性差异显著、直辖以来,绝对差异扩大,但相对差异在波动中缩小。与此同时,重庆劳动力呈现大规模转移,一方面是三峡百万移民;另一方面是农村劳动力的大规模输出．总计规模达千万。劳动力大规模的转移对重庆区域经济产生深远影响,第一,有利于减轻三峡库区生态承栽压力和居民就业压力,提高人均GDP水平;第二,有利于提高库区居民的平均收入水平,缩小重庆区域经济差异;第三,有利于提高农村劳动力整体素质,缩小地区间人力资本差异。     

基于生态足迹模型的青海省人口与资源环境协调发展研究

论文从生活消费入手,采用修正生态足迹模型,评估青海省人口发展与资源环境协调水平。结果显示：2010年青海省城乡居民消费足迹小于人均生态承栽力,不存在生态赤字,但土地结构与生态承载力结构不对等．存在结构赤字。城镇居民人均消费足迹略高于农村居民,但全省城镇居民足迹总量低于农村居民：城镇不同收入组居民消费环境基尼系数小于收入基尼系数,消费占用生态环境资源相对公平;从消费项看,交通消费基尼系数最大,食品消费基尼系数最小。研究提出培养可持续消费观念,引导绿色、健康和环境友好型的消费模式等建议措施。     

青海省人口和经济发展基本情况分析

青海省人口自然增长率在逐年下降,人均生产总值,人均纯收入都在快速增长,群众的最低生活保障体系正在建立;这几年出口贸易顺差大,地方财政收入增长快,这都为青海经济发展提供了有利条件。     

吉林省农村人口的收入分析

吉林省农村地区属于扩张过程中的欠发达地区,其特征为:农民的人均纯收入低于全国平均水平,但发展速度高于全国平均水平,正处于从欠发达地区向发达地区过渡的上升期。通过分析吉林省农民人均纯收入在时间上、结构上的变化,及其与全国平均水平、发达省份统计数据上的对比,进而提出增加农民收入的对策。     

The gap of economic development expanding between eastern China and middle,western China

Jiang Zemin announced at China's 5th Plenary Session of the 14th Central Committee that there was a serious problem of differences in economic development between Eastern China and Middle and Western China. There are many economic development differences between provinces. The coastal eastern zone is comprised of 12 provinces and municipalities: Beijing, Tianjin, Hebei, Liaoning, Shanghai, Jiangsu, Zhejiang, Fujian, Shandong, Guangdong, Guangxi, and Hainan. The middle zone is comprised of 9 provinces and regions including Shanxi, Inner Mongolia, Jilin, Heilongjiang, Anhui, Jiangxi, Henan, Hubei, and Hunan. The third development zone in Western China includes the 9 provinces of Sichuan, Guizhou, Yunnan, Tibet, Shaanxi, Gansu, Qinghai, Ningxia, and Xinjiang. The most developed region is the eastern coastal zone. About 41% of the total population live in the eastern coastal zone, about 36% live in the middle zone, and about 23% live in the western zone. The proportion of gross domestic product (GDP) in the eastern, middle, and western zones shifted from 52.5%, 31.0%, and 16.5%, respectively, in 1973 to 58.5%, 27.4%, and 14.1%, respectively. in 1994. GDP per capita increased by 10.5 times in the eastern zone, by 8.2 times in the middle zone, and by 8.0 times in the western zone to 5352 yuan, 2878 yuan, and 2320 yuan, respectively, in 1994. Nationally, per capita income among urban households was 3179 yuan in 1994. In the eastern coastal zone only two provinces were below the national average: Liaoning with 2750.73 yuan/capita and Hebei with 2906.42 yuan/capita. Only 2 of 18 provinces in the middle and western zones had per capita urban income above the national average: Hunan with 3365.47 yuan/capita and Tibet with 3595.42/capita. Nationally, the annual net rural income was 1220.98/capita. Rural income below the national average occurred in Hebei and Guangsi in the eastern coastal zone and all provinces in the middle and western zones. The highest rural income in the middle and western zones was in Tibet with 975.95 yuan/capita.     

Speech at the UN International Conference on Population,Mexico City,August, 1984

In seeking a solution to its population problem, China, as a developing socialist country, has been making unremitting efforts to develop economy while controlling the rapid growth. The objective is to control rapid population growth so that population growth may be in keeping with socioeconomic development and commensurate with utilization of natural resources and environmental protection. In the past decade, and particularly since 1979, China has made much progress in developing economy and gained remarkable successes in controlling population growth. The natural population growth rate dropped to 1.15% in 1983, from 2.089% in 1973. Living standards have improved with a gradual annual increase of per capita income. All this proves that the policy of promoting family planning to control population growth along with planned economic development is correct. In China family planning is a basic state policy. The government has advocated the practice of "1 couple, 1 child" since 1979. This does not mean that 1 couple could have 1 child only in every case. The government provides guidance for the implementation of family planning programs in the light of specific conditions such as economic developments, cultural background, population structure, and the wishes of the people in different localities. The requirements are more flexible in rural than in urban areas and more so among the people of national minorities than among the people of the Han Nationality. In rural areas, couples who have actual difficulties and want to have 2 children may have a 2nd birth with planned spacing. In carrying out its family planning program, China has consistently adhered to the principle of integrating state guidance with the masses' voluntariness. The government has always emphasized the importance of encouraging the people's own initiatives, through publicity and education, which is the key link in implementing the family planning program.     

教育投入与社会保障对城乡收入差距的联合影响

当前城乡收入差距扩大化趋势引起广泛关注。文章使用世代交叠模型研究公共教育和社会保障对收入分配的作用机制,在此基础上分析公共教育和社会保障对城乡收入差距的影响。研究发现,公共教育通过作用于教育投资、社会保障通过作用于有效家庭时间共同影响人力资本积累从而影响收入。一方面,数值模拟结果显示公共教育和社会保障的增加能够显著地增加收入;另一方面,结合中国城乡实际的实证研究结果显示,本应该起到调节和缩小城乡收入差距的公共教育和社会保障制度,并没有发挥其收入再分配的功能,反而形成了"逆向调节"的负效应,扩大了城乡收入差距,对此,文章通过理论与实证得出,缩小我国城乡人均教育投资和社会保障税率差距对缩小城乡收入差距具有重要的现实意义。     

影响牧区牧民幸福感因素的实证研究——天祝藏族自治县调查报告

改革开放以来。我国经济建设取得了辉煌成就,目前,部分地区甚至一些大城市的人均收入已赶上发达国家．但其总体幸福水平不尽人意。相反,有调查显示收入水平明显大幅度低于城市居民的农民。其生活满意感超过了城市居民。出现了“幸福悼论”现象。本文依据贫困牧区县的调查资料,运用ordered logit model对牧民幸福感同收入及若干非经济因素之间关系的维度和强度进行了考量。在假定牧区宗教及文化习俗对牧民的幸福感均有恒定影响的前提下,分析结果显示．牲畜数量是牧民的主要幸福源泉;牧区女性的幸福感要明显低于男性;牧民收入水平尚较低的情况下。人均年收入同幸福感显著正相关;牧民自身的教育投入对幸福感的提高起抑制作用：以30岁为拐点．牧区成年人和老年人的幸福感相对低于青年人;遇到资金周转困难时,银行对牧民家庭的贷款有助于改善幸福状况：物质条件对幸福感不具有明显的影响。     

An objective criterion of coordination of population growth with economic development]

Coordination of population growth with economic development is the fundamental element for the development of society. Based on China's present condition and our future goal--to be a communistic society--per capita income was suggested to be the most important criterion. Because the primary requirements of a communistic society and the goal of our socialistic production are material abundance and a highly developed civilization, per capita income is also the best criterion to measure the level of our "Four Modernizations" program and the coordination of population with the economy. The economic development based on per capita income also has international significance, for it will indicate the excellence of our system and contribute our strength to world peace in the future. In order to continue increasing per capita income the primary goal is increased production. On the other hand, a rapid population growth delays economic development. A comparatively small difference in population growth rate (a decrease from 1.5% to .5%) leads to a large difference in total population and the investment in the population after many years (e.g. 20 to 40 years). For China's present condition the slower the population growth rate the better for our economic development and the faster the per capita income will increase.     

中国城镇化与环境污染排放:基于投入产出的分析

文章在阐释城镇化对污染排放影响内涵的基础上,基于投入产出分析方法,构建城乡居民人均消费完全排污系数以分析城镇化对污染排放的影响,并对中国1997～2007年数据进行了分析。研究表明,城镇居民人均消费完全排污系数远大于农村居民,二者均随时间呈现不断下降的趋势,但农村居民下降幅度更大。城乡居民人均消费规模差异是其化学需氧量、二氧化硫完全排放系数差异的主要原因,2007年其贡献率分别达到94.07%、90.16%。城镇化效应对1997～2007年中国消费引致化学需氧量、二氧化硫排放呈现持续的增效应。最后,基于2007年数据对城镇化的污染排放影响的测算表明,城镇化率每增加1个百分点,工业化学需氧量、工业二氧化硫排放分别增长0.48%、0.44%,十二五期间的城镇化进程将给减排目标的完成增加较大的工作难度。     

Estimating optimal expenditures on family planning in developing economies

This paper develops an analytical model of the effect of family planningexpenditures on per capita income. The perspective is that of constrained optimization: a predetermined level of overall development resources is to be allocated to family planning programs and alternative uses in the form of expansion of the generalized capital stock (plant and machinery, education and training, and social infrastructure). The principal functions of the model are power forms, so that an explicit solution may be obtained for the optimal ratio of family planning expenditures to overall development resources. Important insights into the nature of this policy question are derived from consideration of the formula. In addition, tentative numerical estimates of the optimal ratio are presented for several developing economies. These estimates suggest that quite a substantial proportion of overall development resources should be allocated to family planning programs in most developing nations. The paper is concluded with a brief evaluation of the advantages and disadvantages of the optimization approach to population policy issues.