大城市的人口只能主要靠行政手段调控吗?——基于区域人口承载力研究

中国的大城市,大多数患上了城市病且日趋严重。这些城市是"人满为患"吗?只能靠行政手段调控人口吗?本文从区域人口承载力研究入手回答了这些问题,认为人口承载力的传统研究结论与现实情况屡屡相悖的原因在于对人口承载力的影响因素出现误判,提出只有经济因素才是区域人口承载力的直接影响因素,其他因素作为经济因素的成本要素间接影响着区域人口承载力,然后基于生产函数将这一观点进行了数理表达并代入北京的数据进行了论证。以这些分析为据,认为主要用行政手段调控人口是不合理的,中国大城市的城市病的直接成因不是人满为患而是"人挤为患"的情况下政策失当,正确的调控方法应该是以业控人、合理布局。     

深圳市人口承载力分析及对策研究

本文运用系统动力学的方法。综合分析了在不同方案下土地与水等资源性因素对深圳未来人口承载力的影响。并根据对不同方案的结果以及它们对深圳城市发展的影响的评价,从人口、资源环境、政策法律和产业结构等方面提出了缓解深圳人口承载压力的政策建议。     

从水资源状况看北京市的人口控制

"五普"资料显示,北京市目前人口已达1381 9万人,为水资源最大承载人口量的5 9倍。再加上工农业用水的增加,已大大超过其水资源的承载力,使北京市成为我国严重缺水城市之一。从水资源的开源节流并重、有选择的人口迁入政策和减少部分城市功能等方面入手,探索解决北京市人口过快增长的良策。     

我国人口与经济—资源承载力关系区域模式初探

<正> 一、问题的提出在一定的经济发展水平和资源环境条件下,一国一地区的人口承载能力客观上是有一定的合理限度或适度范围的。目前,国内关于人口承载量或承载力的研究正在从定性与定量的结合上逐步引向深化。这方面最值得重视的是国家农业区划委员会委托中国科学院自然资源综合考察委员会承担完成的《中国土地资源生产能力与人口承载量研究》。该项研究认为,从现状近期和中期人口需求与当地资源及粮食生产能力的关系看,全国可分为三类地区:即富余地区、临界地区和超载地区。然而,仅从资源角度研究人口承载力及其与人口的关系不免有其一定的局限性。因为,资源承载力相对富余的地区其经济承载力未必富余,而资源承载力相对不足地区经济承载力却有可能是相对富余的。事实上,仅从经济或资源角度出发研究问题都会有一定的局限性,如果综合考     

新世纪、新阶段人口研究和人口工作

文章分析了低生育水平下实现全面建设小康社会人口研究和人口工作的课题,总结了人口工作成功的主要经验,考察了新时期的人口新情况,质疑传统人口转变理论最后阶段的历程,提出从承载力、城市化、就业与社会保障、人口管理制度、低生育水平下的计划生育、老龄化、新的人口研究领域等方面进一步拓展人口和人口工作。     

城市迁移人口及管理问题探讨

改革开放以来中国城市人口增长的最主要来源是人口的迁移增长 ,因此城市人口管理体制的重要一环是城市人口迁移的管理。本文根据城市人口迁移管理体制及其相关的问题进行分析 ,提出了要科学地依据自然资源与社会资源测定城市的人口承载力 ,对人口迁移增长的控制有科学的根据 ,对人口迁移增长有目标、有规划 ,并对城市人口迁移进行科学管理的创见     

人口承载力指标系的建立及量化

有关人口承载力概念、内涵、指标体系与评价模型的研究在我国已取得了长足的发展。纵观渊源,可归结为从容量、阈值、能力等角度分别进行的研究。然而,全球经济一体化进程的不断推进,开放式条件分析框架下的人口承载力已从简单意义上的"量"演变为复杂状况下"量"与"性"才能研究的目标对象。开放式条件作为现今必需的研究背景,结合环境和资源的相对稳定性、人口规模与经济规模大小的适应性,有必要建立衡量和评价人口承载力"质量"的指标系。通过围绕社会经济状况、环境资源、区域人口状况三系统讨论了人口承载力指标系的构建与量化。     

中国西北地区人口承载力及承载压力分析

本文从水资源角度出发,通过一定的计量分析,探讨了西北地区的水资源人口承载力及其动态变化,并结合人口规模预测,进一步研究了西北地区人口对资源和环境的压力状况。研究发现,西北地区人口承载力较低,但今后会进一步有所上升,与人口变动相比,人口超载现象将始终存在,但是程度将略有降低。     

城市人口迁居理论综述

城市人口迁居属于学科交叉性的一种复杂经济现象,是研究人口新发展的重要方面。对于城市人口迁居的理论发展,中西方社会均取得了一定的成果。这些理论的研究对于梳理出城市人口发展的趋势,在思想与逻辑上都有极大的借鉴意义。当然,迁居涉及的问题和作用至今仍要反复探讨,而且情况复杂。中外城市人口迁居的理论综述将有助于分析和思考迁居涉及的多方面问题。     

土地人口承载力问题初探

本文着重探讨土地人口承载力的性质和必须考虑的因素,并提出考察土地人口承载力的指标体系,以及对我国土地人口承载力的基本看法。 一、土地人口承载力的基本性质 土地人口承载力是指一个国家或地区,在满足人民基本生活需要和人口正常繁衍的前提下,在其所占有的土地上能够负担的最     

Public transfers and marital dissolution

In this paper, we analyze determinants of marital dissolution, focusing on the alleged influences from public transfers, child allowance, and child support awards. We use a Norwegian panel of 2,806 couples with information on public and private transfers in cases of divorce. The sample was observed over a 5-year period, with the purpose of registering marital dissolution. We find that the level of transfers has a significantly positive effect on divorce probability and that the distribution of transfers in favor of the wife increases this probability. Our findings are consistent with noncooperative family models allowing for inefficient outcomes.

Assessing the efficiency of public education and pensions

Theory says that, in an overlapping-generations context, intergenerational transfer agreements are efficient if they induce equality between certain implicit rates of return. We apply this theory to the case of public education and pensions, where public education is interpreted as a loan from middle age to young, and pensions are the repayment of this loan, plus interest, from middle age to old. We use micro- and macrodata from Spain to estimate how far actual arrangements are from the normative goal. When demographic stationarity is assumed, efficiency appears reachable. When demographic change is accounted for, efficiency is far from being achieved. Nevertheless, and contrary to earlier predictions in the generational accounting literature, our findings suggest that future generations may not necessarily be worse off than current ones.      

A dynamic general equilibrium analysis of the political economy of public education

The primary objective of this paper is to highlight the distinct roles of altruism and of self-interest in the political determination of a public education policy. I assess the relative importance of three factors in the determination of the equilibrium level of this policy: altruism, the impact of public funding of education on social security benefits, and its impact on factor prices. I then focus on the impact of implementing a social security system on the equilibrium levels of education funding and on welfare. I find that although in the benchmark economy, the presence of social security might generate support for public funding of education, its overall effect on the well-being of individuals is negative for any level of social security taxation.

快速城市化背景下城市公共服务需求偏好研究——以上海为例

近年来,我国进入快速城市化阶段,城市人口快速膨胀,人口结构复杂化,居民对公共服务的需求多样化。本文以上海市为例,通过问卷数据,从人口学视角,通过回归分析不同人群公共服务的偏好。结果显示,当前居民对公共服务的需求不仅有数量增加,对质量、服务水平及环境都有所要求;同时人口区域结构对公共服务的需求具有显著影响,人口自然结构、社会结构的影响较小,区域公共服务差异、户籍性质造成的身份差异是影响公共服务需求的主导因素。     

我国公共就业服务均等化问题的实证分析——基于2003—2008年全国统计数据面板

公共服务均等化是现代政府的一项基本职能。公共就业服务作为民生性公共服务,其均等化程度备受关注。本文以2003—2008年全国统计数据为面板。借助绝对值、标准差及变异系数等指标对我国公共就业服务进行实证研究。研究发现：我国公共就业服务在财政投入和基本建设方面存在严重的地区差异：城乡劳动者获得的公共就业服务严重不均：公共就业服务的总体效率和满意度不高。这些问题严重阻碍了我国公共就业服务均等化进程及社会的和谐发展。急需得到解决。本文从完善公共财政投入与转移支付制度、健全公共就业服务体系、创新公共就业服务供给模式等方面提出了具体的对策建议。     

农村公共事业与农民生活满意度

本文以6个省1586户农户的问卷调查结果为依据,运用序数Logistic模型,探讨农村公共事业、农民个人特征、家庭特征对农民生活满意度的影响。结果表明,农村公共事业发展对农民生活满意度影响显著,其中农村卫生事业发展对农民生活满意度的影响最大,其次是农村教育事业发展,农村文化事业发展对农民生活满意度的影响最小。根据分析结果,本文提出了以下政策建议:在今后的农村公共事业发展中,政府应渐进增加农村公共事业支出比重,不断调整农村公共事业支出结构,并随时更新文化娱乐活动内容,以适应广大农民的精神需要。     

Knowing your audience: Investigating stillbirth knowledge and perceptions in the general population to inform future public health campaigns

BackgroundThe prevalence of stillbirth in many high income countries like Australia has remained unchanged for over 30 years. The 2018 Australian government Senate Select Committee on Stillbirth Research and Education highlighted the need for a public health campaign to encourage public conversations and increase awareness. However, there is little evidence about the community’s knowledge and perceptions towards pregnancy and stillbirth, nor their aspirations for a public health campaign.AimsTo assess the general knowledge, perceptions, myths and attitudes towards stillbirth to inform future public health campaigns.MethodsAustralian participants (n = 344; predominately women n = 294 (85.5%)) were recruited via Facebook.com. They completed a cross-sectional online survey designed to assess their knowledge of pregnancy and stillbirth, with additional questions on socio-demographic characteristics.ResultsStillbirth knowledge and awareness of incidence was low in this sample. Prominent myths, such as baby runs out of room in the uterus (n = 112, 33%) and baby slows down when preparing for labour (n = 24, 27%) were endorsed. Only 25% (n = 85) knew the prevalence of stillbirth in Australia (six per day). Almost two-thirds (n = 205; 62%) agreed that there needs to be a public health campaign, however one in five (n = 65; 20%) were concerned that talking about stillbirth with pregnant women may cause them to worry.Discussion and conclusionOur findings reinforce the need for a targeted campaign, which educates the general population about the definition and prevalence of stillbirth, stillbirth risks and modifiable health behaviours. Appropriate messaging should target pregnant women during antenatal care as well as their support and care systems (family, friends, and care providers).     

日本护理保险制度的修订与非营利组织的养老参与

在田野调查基础上,探讨日本护理保险制度的修订原因及新的措施。认为修订后的保险制度不仅细化了服务对象,减轻了国家负担,而且进一步将社区保健的服务主体转移到了政府以外的民间,从而为非营利组织的养老参与提供了更为广阔的舞台。实践也表明,非营利组织的养老参与不只是有益于护理服务,同时也密切了社区联系,培养了市民的公共意识。日本的这些经验对中国解决高龄化人口问题会有所启示。     

Stillbirth in Australia 4: Breaking the Silence: Amplifying Public Awareness of Stillbirth in Australia

Prevention of stillbirth remains one of the greatest challenges in modern maternity care. Despite this, public awareness is low and silence is common within families, the community and even healthcare professionals. Australian families and parent advocacy groups given a voice through the Senate Enquiry have made passionate and articulate calls for a national stillbirth awareness campaign. This fourth paper in the Stillbirth in Australia series outlines why stillbirth needs a national public awareness campaign; and provides an overview of good practice in the design, development and evaluation of public awareness campaigns. The cognitive and affective steps required to move from campaign awareness to action and eventually to stillbirth prevention are described. Using these best practice principles, learning from previous campaigns combined with close collaboration with aligned agencies and initiatives should assist a National Stillbirth Prevention Campaign to increase community awareness of stillbirth, help break the silence and contribute to stillbirth prevention across Australia.     

浅谈新形势下的计划生育宣传教育工作

宣传教育是贯彻落实计划生育基本国策的中心环节 ,是提高计划生育工作水平 ,实现“两个转变”的根本保证 ,在整个计划生育工作中始终处于首位。因此 ,加强计划生育宣传教育工作势在必行