Experience with a bayesian bootstrap method incorporating proper prior information

Although bootstrapping has become widely used in statistical analysis, there has been little reported concerning bootstrapped Bayesian analyses, especially when there is proper prior informa-tion concerning the parameter of interest. In this paper, we first propose an operationally implementable definition of a Bayesian bootstrap. Thereafter, in simulated studies of the estimation of means and variances, this Bayesian bootstrap is compared to various parametric procedures. It turns out that little information is lost in using the Bayesian bootstrap even when the sampling distribution is known. On the other hand, the parametric procedures are at times very sensitive to incorrectly specified sampling distributions, implying that the Bayesian bootstrap is a very robust procedure for determining the posterior distribution of the parameter.     

Bootstrap and Bayesian bootstrap clones for censored Markov chains

This is a study of the behaviors of the naive bootstrap and the Bayesian bootstrap clones designed to approximate the sampling distribution of the Aalen–Johansen estimator of a non-homogeneous censored Markov chain. The study shows that the approximations based on the Bayesian bootstrap clones and the naive bootstrap are first-order asymptotically equivalent. The two bootstrap methods are illustrated by a marketing example, and their performance is validated by a Monte Carlo experiment.     

Bayesian bootstrap prediction

In this paper, bootstrap prediction is adapted to resolve some problems in small sample datasets. The bootstrap predictive distribution is obtained by applying Breiman's bagging to the plug-in distribution with the maximum likelihood estimator. The effectiveness of bootstrap prediction has previously been shown, but some problems may arise when bootstrap prediction is constructed in small sample datasets. In this paper, Bayesian bootstrap is used to resolve the problems. The effectiveness of Bayesian bootstrap prediction is confirmed by some examples. These days, analysis of small sample data is quite important in various fields. In this paper, some datasets are analyzed in such a situation. For real datasets, it is shown that plug-in prediction and bootstrap prediction provide very poor prediction when the sample size is close to the dimension of parameter while Bayesian bootstrap prediction provides stable prediction.     

Quasi-random resampling for the bootstrap

Quasi-random sequences are known to give efficient numerical integration rules in many Bayesian statistical problems where the posterior distribution can be transformed into periodic functions on then-dimensional hypercube. From this idea we develop a quasi-random approach to the generation of resamples used for Monte Carlo approximations to bootstrap estimates of bias, variance and distribution functions. We demonstrate a major difference between quasi-random bootstrap resamples, which are generated by deterministic algorithms and have no true randomness, and the usual pseudo-random bootstrap resamples generated by the classical bootstrap approach. Various quasi-random approaches are considered and are shown via a simulation study to result in approximants that are competitive in terms of efficiency when compared with other bootstrap Monte Carlo procedures such as balanced and antithetic resampling.     

Characterizing variation of nonparametric random probability measures using the Kullback–Leibler divergence

This work characterizes the dispersion of some popular random probability measures, including the bootstrap, the Bayesian bootstrap, and the Pólya tree prior. This dispersion is measured in terms of the variation of the Kullback–Leibler divergence of a random draw from the process to that of its baseline centring measure. By providing a quantitative expression of this dispersion around the baseline distribution, our work provides insight for comparing different parameterizations of the models and for the setting of prior parameters in applied Bayesian settings. This highlights some limitations of the existing canonical choice of parameter settings in the Pólya tree process.     

On Parametric Bootstrapping and Bayesian Prediction

Abstract.  We investigate bootstrapping and Bayesian methods for prediction. The observations and the variable being predicted are distributed according to different distributions. Many important problems can be formulated in this setting. This type of prediction problem appears when we deal with a Poisson process. Regression problems can also be formulated in this setting. First, we show that bootstrap predictive distributions are equivalent to Bayesian predictive distributions in the second-order expansion when some conditions are satisfied. Next, the performance of predictive distributions is compared with that of a plug-in distribution with an estimator. The accuracy of prediction is evaluated by using the Kullback–Leibler divergence. Finally, we give some examples.     

Extending the family of Bayesian bootstraps and exchangeable urn schemes

A Bayesian bootstrap for a finite population with censored observations is introduced. It is shown to reduce to the finite population Bayesian bootstrap if there is no censoring and to reduce to the censored data Bayesian bootstrap for a large population. A class of general urn schemes for simulating exchangeable sequences of variables is introduced which is connected to the bootstrap method.     

Sufficient m-out-of-n (m/n) bootstrap

Traditional resampling methods for estimating sampling distributions sometimes fail, and alternative approaches are then needed. For example, if the classical central limit theorem does not hold and the naïve bootstrap fails, the m/n bootstrap, based on smaller-sized resamples, may be used as an alternative. An alternative to the naïve bootstrap, the sufficient bootstrap, which uses only the distinct observations in a bootstrap sample, is another recently proposed bootstrap approach that has been suggested to reduce the computational burden associated with bootstrapping. It works as long as naïve bootstrap does. However, if the naïve bootstrap fails, so will the sufficient bootstrap. In this paper, we propose combining the sufficient bootstrap with the m/n bootstrap in order to both regain consistent estimation of sampling distributions and to reduce the computational burden of the bootstrap. We obtain necessary and sufficient conditions for asymptotic normality of the proposed method, and propose new values for the resample size m. We compare the proposed method with the naïve bootstrap, the sufficient bootstrap, and the m/n bootstrap by simulation.     

Moment Consistency of the Exchangeably Weighted Bootstrap for Semiparametric M‐estimation

The bootstrap variance estimate is widely used in semiparametric inferences. However, its theoretical validity is a well‐known open problem. In this paper, we provide a first theoretical study on the bootstrap moment estimates in semiparametric models. Specifically, we establish the bootstrap moment consistency of the Euclidean parameter, which immediately implies the consistency of t‐type bootstrap confidence set. It is worth pointing out that the only additional cost to achieve the bootstrap moment consistency in contrast with the distribution consistency is to simply strengthen the L₁ maximal inequality condition required in the latter to the L_p maximal inequality condition for p≥1. The general L_p multiplier inequality developed in this paper is also of independent interest. These general conclusions hold for the bootstrap methods with exchangeable bootstrap weights, for example, non‐parametric bootstrap and Bayesian bootstrap. Our general theory is illustrated in the celebrated Cox regression model.     

A note on the scale parameter of the dirichlet process

This paper gives an interpretation for the scale parameter of a Dirichlet process when the aim is to estimate a linear functional of an unknown probability distribution. We provide exact first and second posterior moments for such functionals under both informative and noninformative prior specifications. The noninformative case provides a normal approximation to the Bayesian bootstrap.     

Hybrid regions for post-change mean in a sequence of normal variables

The hybrid bootstrap uses resampling ideas to extend the duality approach to the interval estimation for a parameter of interest when there are nuisance parameters. The confidence region constructed by the hybrid bootstrap may perform much better than the ordinary bootstrap region in a situation where the data provide substantial information about the nuisance parameter, but limited information about the parameter of interest. We apply this method to estimate the post-change mean after a change is detected by a stopping procedure in a sequence of independent normal variables. Since distribution theory in change point problems is generally a challenge, we use bootstrap simulation to find empirical distributions of test statistics and calculate critical thresholds. Both likelihood ratio and Bayesian test statistics are considered to set confidence regions for post-change means in the normal model. In the simulation studies, the performance of hybrid regions are compared with that of ordinary bootstrap regions in terms of the widths and coverage probabilities of confidence intervals.     

Bootstrap confidence intervals for smoothing splines and their comparison to bayesian confidence intervals

We construct bootstrap confidence intervals for smoothing spline estimates based on Gaussian data, and penalized likelihood smoothing spline estimates based on data from .exponential families. Several vari- ations of bootstrap confidence intervals are considered and compared. We find that the commonly used ootstrap percentile intervals are inferior to the T intervals and to intervals based on bootstrap estimation of mean squared errors. The best variations of the bootstrap confidence intervals behave similar to the well known Bayesian confidence intervals. These bootstrap confidence intervals have an average coverage probability across the function being estimated, as opposed to a pointwise property.     

Bayesian Inference and Prediction in an M/G/1 with Optional Second Service

In this article, we exploit the Bayesian inference and prediction for an M/G/1 queuing model with optional second re-service. In this model, a service unit attends customers arriving following a Poisson process and demanding service according to a general distribution and some of customers need to re-service with probability “p”. First, we introduce a mixture of truncated Normal distributions on interval (? ∞, 0) to approximate the service and re-service time densities. Then, given observations of the system, we propose a Bayesian procedure based on birth-death MCMC methodology to estimate some performance measures. Finally, we apply the theories in practice by providing a numerical example based on real data which have been obtained from a hospital.     

Inference for a simple step-stress model with progressively censored competing risks data from Weibull distribution

In reliability analysis, it is common to consider several causes, either mechanical or electrical, those are competing to fail a unit. These causes are called “competing risks.” In this paper, we consider the simple step-stress model with competing risks for failure from Weibull distribution under progressive Type-II censoring. Based on the proportional hazard model, we obtain the maximum likelihood estimates (MLEs) of the unknown parameters. The confidence intervals are derived by using the asymptotic distributions of the MLEs and bootstrap method. For comparison, we obtain the Bayesian estimates and the highest posterior density (HPD) credible intervals based on different prior distributions. Finally, their performance is discussed through simulations.     

Inferences on functions of Pareto parameters with application to income inequality measures

The Theil, Pietra, Éltetö and Frigyes measures of income inequality associated with the Pareto distribution function are expressed in terms of parameters defining the Pareto distribution. Inference procedures based on the generalized variable method, the large sample method, and the Bayesian method for testing of, and constructing confidence interval for, these measures are discussed. The results of Monte Carlo study are used to compare the performance of the suggested inference procedures from a population characterized by a Pareto distribution.     

A Bootstrap Likelihood Approach to Bayesian Computation

There is an increasing amount of literature focused on Bayesian computational methods to address problems with intractable likelihood. One approach is a set of algorithms known as Approximate Bayesian Computational (ABC) methods. One of the problems with these algorithms is that their performance depends on the appropriate choice of summary statistics, distance measure and tolerance level. To circumvent this problem, an alternative method based on the empirical likelihood has been introduced. This method can be easily implemented when a set of constraints, related to the moments of the distribution, is specified. However, the choice of the constraints is sometimes challenging. To overcome this difficulty, we propose an alternative method based on a bootstrap likelihood approach. The method is easy to implement and in some cases is actually faster than the other approaches considered. We illustrate the performance of our algorithm with examples from population genetics, time series and stochastic differential equations. We also test the method on a real dataset.     

Evaluation of methods for interval estimation of model outputs, with application to survival models

When a published statistical model is also distributed as computer software, it will usually be desirable to present the outputs as interval, as well as point, estimates. The present paper compares three methods for approximate interval estimation about a model output, for use when the model form does not permit an exact interval estimate. The methods considered are first-order asymptotics, using second derivatives of the log-likelihood to estimate variance information; higher-order asymptotics based on the signed-root transformation; and the non-parametric bootstrap. The signed-root method is Bayesian, and uses an approximation for posterior moments that has not previously been tested in a real-world application. Use of the three methods is illustrated with reference to a software project arising in medical decision-making, the UKPDS Risk Engine. Intervals from the first-order and signed-root methods are near- identical, and typically 1% wider to 7% narrower than those from the non-parametric bootstrap. The asymptotic methods are markedly faster than the bootstrap method.     

On progressively censored inverted exponentiated Rayleigh distribution

In this paper, we discuss a progressively censored inverted exponentiated Rayleigh distribution. Estimation of unknown parameters is considered under progressive censoring using maximum likelihood and Bayesian approaches. Bayes estimators of unknown parameters are derived with respect to different symmetric and asymmetric loss functions using gamma prior distributions. An importance sampling procedure is taken into consideration for deriving these estimates. Further highest posterior density intervals for unknown parameters are constructed and for comparison purposes bootstrap intervals are also obtained. Prediction of future observations is studied in one- and two-sample situations from classical and Bayesian viewpoint. We further establish optimum censoring schemes using Bayesian approach. Finally, we conduct a simulation study to compare the performance of proposed methods and analyse two real data sets for illustration purposes.     

Bayesian bootstrap methods for developmental toxicity studies

Estimates of mean response for a developmental toxicity study are developed using the techniques of Bayesian bootstrap. Using this method, a joint posterior distribution of mean response is simulated, providing a means for determining estimated variance and confidence statements. The approach allows for effects on litter size to be taken into consideration in the estimation of mean response. In addition a method is given for the incorporation of prior information into the analysis. The prior information may be information about mean response and about the litter size distribution as well. Results are compared with likelihood based estimates.     

Random Weighting Empirical Distribution Function and its Applications to Goodness-of-Fit Testing

In this article, a randomized estimator of the empirical distribution function (EDF) called random weighting empirical distribution function (RWEDF) is introduced, one special case of which is just equivalent to the Bayesian bootstrap. The consistency of the RWEDF is established under certain conditions. By substituting this new EDF for the classical EDF, we obtain new versions of some EDF test statistics for goodness-of-fit. The simulation results show that the new tests are more powerful than the corresponding tests based on the classical EDF under some cases.