我国人口就业与不同产业经济增长的实证分析

为了协调我国人口就业与不同产业经济增长的关系,对1978～2005年期间我国的人口就业与不同产业经济增长之间进行了协整分析,得出我国人口就业与第二、第三产业经济增长之间存在长期的均衡关系;同时构建模型对我国不同产业的GDP与就业人数进行了回归分析,利用我国不同产业的GDP就业弹性,比较分析了我国不同产业对就业吸纳作用的差异;以及利用得出的结论提出保持适度的经济增长,进行产业结构调整,扩大劳务输出等政策建议是缓解和扩大我国人口就业的必然途径。     

A dynamic analysis of turnover in employment and child care

The causes of turnover in child-care arrangements and maternal employment are analyzed using panel data from the National Longitudinal Survey of Youth, supplemented with state-level information on child-care markets. The results indicate that turnover in child care is quite high and that child and family characteristics help explain turnover. Important factors include the mother’s wage, the cost of child care, age of the child, and previous child-care decisions. The reduced-form nature of the analysis makes it difficult to determine whether these factors are important because they are associated with unstable child-care supply or because they affect family decisions, conditional on supply factors. The results provide no direct evidence that child-care turnover is higher in states with more unstable child-care markets.     

Improvingaccuracy in multiple regression estimates of population using principles from causal modelling

This paper reports a mildly restricted procedure for using a theoretical causal ordering and principles from path analysis to provide a basis for modifying regression coefficients in order to improve the estimation accuracy of the ratio-correlation method of population estimation. The modification is intended to take into account temporal changes in the structure of variable relationships, a major element in determining the accuracy of post-censal estimates. The modification of coefficients is conservative in that it uses rank-ordering as a basis of change. Empirical results are reported for counties in Washington state that demonstrate the increased accuracy obtained using the proposed procedure.     

The measurement and analysis of time use

There is a growing interest in, time allocation research. Particularly by government statistical bodies. Papers in this issue, briefly highlighted in this introduction, make a small contribution to fulfilling a need for wider exposure of time use literature. The included papers do two things. First, they identify issues related to the collection and analysis of time use data. Second, they show how time use data can be effectively applied to improve one's understanding of significant issues.     

The employment adjustment of male immigrants in England

In this paper the employment performance of native and foreign born men in England is examined, using 1993–1994 data from the Quarterly Labour Force Survey of the United Kingdom. Chiswick's (1982) hypotheses of immigrant employment adjustment are investigated using logistic regression analysis. We show that there are interesting and important employment effects arising from immigrant characteristics. Recent white immigrants experience a transitory employment disadvantage. However non-white immigrants never attain employment equality with native born white men. Education, potential experience, family characteristics and country of birth are also found to be important determinants of employment. Received: 13 September 1998/Accepted: 15 July 1999     

A dynamic analysis of women’s employment exits

This research examines women’s rates of leaving a job to become nonemployed (unemployed or out of the labor force) using a stochastic, continuous-time model. The data consist of employment histories of white women constructed from the National Longitudinal Survey of Young Women (1968-1973). The results demonstrate the importance of examining the underlying processes in women’s employment. Several differences are found between the determinants of employment exits and what might be expected from the cross-sectional and panel literature on female labor force participation. The findings also provide evidence of the interdependence of fertility and employment, with young children increasing rates of employment exits and with high wages on ajob decreasing rates ofleaving a job because of a pregnancy. Finally, involuntary employment terminations are examined, and their transition rates are found to decrease with job wages and job tenure and to increase when a woman has children.     

The heterogeneity of ethnic employment gaps

This paper investigates the heterogeneity of ethnic employment gaps using a new single-index based approach. Instead of stratifying our sample by age or education, we study ethnic employment gaps along a continuous measure of employability, the employment probability minority workers would have if their characteristics were priced as in the majority group. We apply this method to French males, comparing those whose parents are North African immigrants and those with native parents. We find that both the raw and the unexplained ethnic employment differentials are larger for low-employability workers than for high-employability ones. We show in a theoretical framework that this heterogeneity can be accounted for by homogeneous underlying mechanisms and is not evidence for, say, heterogeneous discrimination. Finally, we discuss our main empirical findings in the light of simple taste-based vs. statistical discrimination models.     

1998—2000年我国积极财政政策就业效应的实证分析

本文利用乘数理论估计了近几年实施积极财政政策所创造的就业岗位,在财政提高就业效率的问题上,我们有以下建议:改变国债投资的方向;采取适当的财税措施提高边际消费倾向;加大财政对第三产业和小企业的投入力度。     

The Catalan premium: language and employment in Catalonia

In this paper, I measure the contribution of knowing Catalan to finding a job in Catalonia. In the early 1980s, a drastic language policy change (normalització) promoted the learning and use of Catalan in Catalonia and managed to reverse the falling trend of its relative use vs Castilian (Spanish). Using census data for 1991 and 1996, I estimate a significant positive Catalan premium: the probability of being employed increases between 3 and 5 percentage points if individuals know how to read and speak Catalan; it increases between 2 and 6 percentage points for writing Catalan.

Retirement patterns in Hong Kong: a censored regression analysis

This paper provides an overview of retirement patterns in Hong Kong on the basis of limited data. A censored regression model is used to infer the retirement age from people‘s current retirement status and their current age. This model is equivalent to a restricted probit model, and the interpretation of parameters is straightforward. The results clearly show a negative income effect on the retirement decision. The retirement age seems to be positively related to lifetime earnings but negatively related to the rate of decline of earnings with age. JEL classification: C24, J14, J26 Received May 6, 1996 / Accepted February 5, 1997     

The effect of maternal employment on teenage childbearing

This paper estimates the effect of a mothers employment on her teenage daughters likelihood of birth. Using data from the United States, the National Education Longitudinal Survey of 1988, the author finds that teenagers with working mothers who attend relatively wealthy schools are more likely (77%) to have a birth compared to teens who attend similar schools but have non-working mothers. In contrast, teenagers with working mothers who attend relatively poor schools are less likely (18%) to have a birth compared to teens who attend similar schools but have non-working mothers.I am indebted to Marcia Carlson, Thomas DeLeire, Angela Fertig, Brian Jacob, Darren Lubotsky, Scott Lynch, Susan Mayer, Sara McLanahan, Robert Michael, German Rodriguez, seminar participants at Princeton University and The University of Chicago, and two anonymous referees for insightful suggestions made on earlier versions of this paper. I also gratefully acknowledge financial support from a Northwestern University/University of Chicago Joint Center for Poverty Research Graduate Fellowship, a Robert R. McCormick Tribune Foundation Graduate Fellowship, the Bendheim-Thoman Center for Research on Child Wellbeing at Princeton University, and the Office of Population Research at Princeton University, which is supported by center grant 5 P30 HD32030 from the NICHD. Responsible editor: Junsen Zhang.     

The interaction of migration,income, and employment in Sweden

A common approach in migration studies is to explain interregional migration by single-equation models. Such models are likely to suffer from simultaneous-equation bias when used in studies attempting to analyze migration over a long period of time. In this study, a simultaneous-equation approach is applied, which takes account of the interdependence between migration and income and employment changes. The four-equation model is estimated for 70 labor market areas in Sweden.     

The effects of early maternal employment on child cognitive development

We investigated the effects of early maternal employment on children's cognitive outcomes, using data from the National Longitudinal Survey of Youth on 1,872 children who can be followed from birth to age 7 or 8. We found some persistent adverse effects of first-year maternal employment and some positive effects of second- and third-year maternal employment on cognitive outcomes for non-Hispanic white children, but not for African American or Hispanic children. These effects are present even after we controlled for a range of individual and family characteristics that affect child development, including those that are likely to be correlated with maternal employment, such as breast-feeding and the use of nonmaternal child care. Controlling for family fixed effects reduces the effects of early maternal employment on some cognitive outcomes but not on others.     

城镇老年人再就业对幸福感的影响——基于吉林省老年人口的调查研究

随着老年人口的不断增长,如何提高老年人幸福感已成为社会热点问题。经济水平是影响老年人幸福感的最直接因素,也最被专家学者所关注。退休后老年人的收入情况是决定老年人经济水平高低的关键因素。数据分析认为退休老年人再就业和幸福感有着较为明显的正相关性,所以多为老年人提供再就业机会对他们身心的健康是有益的,对老龄化所带来的经济压力能够起到缓解、消除的作用,有利于国家的全面发展。     

Analysis of oral contraceptive use through multiple decrement life table techniques

Multiple decrement life table technique is used to analyze the oral contraceptive use in a sample of once married women in Metropolitan Toronto. The overall pattern in the Canadian data is found to be essentially similar to that found in the U. S. Continuation rates show differences by cause of decrement. Two types of rates, net and absolute, are presented, and the relationship between single decrement continuation rates and total continuation rates is examined. Some problems of clinical versus retrospective sample survey data in studies of contraceptive effectiveness are commented on.     

Maternal employment in Scandinavia: a comparison of the after-birth employment activity of Norwegian and Swedish women

A striking characteristic of recent Western labour market trends is the rise in employment among mothers of very young children. So far, few studies have analysed the impact of public policies on employment rates of young mothers. In this study we address this issue by comparing two similar countries, Norway and Sweden, which have the same set of policies with slight variations, using data sets with similar designs. We analyse rates of re-entry into paid work after first birth for mothers in 1968–88 by means of hazard regression. One important finding is that the right to paid maternity leave with jobsecurity greatly speeds up the return to work.We want to thank Jan Kowalski for programming assistence and the Swedish Research Council for the Social Sciences and the Swedish Council for Research in the Humanities and Social Sciences for financial support for the Swedish study. We are grateful to John F. Ermisch, Siv Gustafsson, to two anonymous referees and to colleagues at the Demography Unit for valuable comments. Responsible editors. Siv S. Gustafsson, John F. Ermisch.     

Making sense of census data: A components analysis of employment change among indigenous Australians

The 1996 Census count of indigenous Australians included a substantial number of individuals who were not recorded as indigenous by the previous census. This paper considers the implications of this for interpreting change in employment numbers. Two adjustments are made to employment change data. First, reverse survival of the 1996 population is applied to reconstruct 1991 employment figures. Second, administrative data are used to discount employment generated by participation in labour market programs. The effect is to substantially deflate the strong intercensal employment growth apparent from census counts with the conclusion that the rate of indigenous employment in the mainstream labour market has fallen.