Between labour market and retirement pension — flexible transition as a new paradigm for ageing societies?

Increasing the pensionable age due to rising life expectancy meets strong political resistance. For health and labour market reasons it will always be impossible for some to achieve full pension eligibility directly from employment. Even if early retirement options are not restricted the scope for an accumulation of earnings to fund an early pension is often narrowly defined. Consequently, it is impossible for early retirees to compensate for the reductions in the pension they receive. Contrary to the general tendency to increase the pensionable age an alternative reform proposal is currently under discussion in German social policy circles. This involves free choice of retirement at age 60; unlimited accumulation of additional pension entitlements whilst earning; actuarial deductions for early retirement; and consideration of life expectancy in making adjustments to pension awards. This solution relieves the public pension system financially, raises the attractiveness of senior citizens on the labour market, offers the opportunity for a self‐determined transition from work to retirement and reduces political resistance to pension reform. The effect on the labour market for senior citizens remains to be examined.     

Older people, work and equal opportunity

People in industrialized countries are living longer, having fewer children and retiring sooner. The proportion of older people in the population is rising; their labour force participation is declining. These trends are arousing apprehensions about future labour supply and pension financing as contributor/beneficiary ratios decrease. A widely advocated policy response is to seek higher participation rates, especially by raising pensionable ages and restricting early retirement. Little has been done to improve the labour market position of seniors. Three-pronged action is needed: promoting training, placement and workplace flexibility; changing attitudes through education and information; and prohibiting age discrimination in employment.     

关于中国法定退休年龄的探讨

关于中国法定退休年龄问题,近年来引发了社会各界的广泛关注。本文分析了几个被广泛关注的因素:中国人口平均寿命与健康预期寿命变化,世界的退休年龄变化趋势以及退休年龄变化对于劳动力市场的影响。在此基础上,文章认为:当前女性法定退休年龄偏低,将导致女性退休后出现养老金低收益及"退而不休"现象。因而,建议中国应当提高女性退休年龄,并且应结合劳动力人口变化趋势,采用小步渐进的方式进行调整,以期在一定程度上优化劳动力市场供给。     

The interaction of pillars in multi‐pillar pension systems: A comparison of Canada,Denmark, Netherlands and Sweden

Canada, Denmark, the Netherlands and Sweden have advanced multi‐pillar pension systems. Using micro‐simulations, this article presents a close examination of the interaction of pillars in these countries. The relative importance and the role of the different pension pillars vary from country to country, and according to age, income, gender and socio‐economic dimensions as well as between generations. A further area of investigation is the mitigation capacity of the four pension systems. On the one hand, adverse labour careers lead to lower life‐time earnings and lower private pension accruals. On the other hand, these effects are mitigated through the design of pillars and their interaction. Mitigation is important to income security and stability in retirement and to post‐retirement income distribution. However, mitigation mechanisms come at the cost of incentives. Moreover, in many countries, the generosity of public benefits is set to decrease – increasing the importance of private pensions. This will shift risk and uncertainty from employers and pension institutions to individuals. Thus, risks and uncertainties related to private pensions will become more important, raising questions about the division of responsibilities between public and private pensions, and about the potential of mitigating such risk through pillar interaction. These concerns are further reinforced by labour market changes. Although a pension system free of distortions is inconceivable, this article seeks to contribute to addressing how mitigation should be designed, and how mitigation and risk sharing should be balanced against incentives, challenges which are as much political as technical.     

Pension Reform in the EU Accession Countries: Challenges, Achievements and Pitfalls

Like the current member States of the European Union (EU), the 13 accession countries have diverse pension systems that vary in the adequacy of benefits, the degree of solidarity, and the roles of government, workers, employers, and pension funds in scheme management. Since the mid-1990s, nearly all have increased their pensionable age and adopted new systems for voluntary supplemental pension savings. Five have scaled down their social insurance schemes in favour of new systems of commercially managed individual savings accounts. The article discusses these reforms and their match with key elements of the countries' political and economic environments, financial markets and regulatory experience. It highlights alternative approaches to pension protection for retired workers in conditions of ageing populations.     

Effective retirement age from employment and full‐time employment,and the impact of the 2008 crisis

Estimates of effective retirement age based on labour force participation rates are commonly used for actuarial experience review and policy development. However, the transition from work to retirement and the socio‐economic environment have evolved over the years, influenced by a growing role for gradual retirement and the labour market impact of the 2008 economic crisis. Rather than focusing exclusively on retirement ages based on labour force participation rates, this article presents complementary estimates of retirement ages to better assess the effective retirement age from employment. It also introduces the concept of retirement from full‐time employment, showing that the retirement age from full‐time employment is systematically lower than the retirement age from employment. The results reveal that the trend towards an increase in the retirement age has been impacted by economic conditions when considering the effective employment of older workers. Results are presented for different Member countries of the Organisation for Economic Co‐operation and Development over the period 2005–2015.     

To Retire or Not to Retire: Is There an Option for Older Workers in Hong Kong?

Over the next thirty years, Hong Kong will have a rapidly ageing population. One possible consequence of this will be a labour shortage, which means that it will be essential to strike a proper balance between the amount of time spent in work and the amount spent in retirement in old age. The balance is determined by the interaction between the aspiration of workers, employers’ attitudes to older workers, as well as the productivity of the labour force. In this article, we examine the issue based on life‐course theory and we argue that the compartmentalization of education, work and retirement must be broken by changes in social policy. We identify three groups of future older adults in the coming three decades: those who may be forced to retire early in their fifties, those who plan to retire in their sixties, and those who will continue to work until they can no longer work. The current situations of these groups are described, and social policies that are related to retirement pension scheme, age discrimination, life‐long education, and flexible work arrangements are suggested to weaken the age structuring of education and employment institutions. Our ultimate objective is to create a societal environment in which older workers have a real option either to work or to retire in the coming decades.     

Social security pensionable ages in OECD countries: 1949-2035

This paper examines the pensionable or early retirement age in social security in 23 OECD countries over the years 1949‐2035. The policies for future years are those in current law, with some not being fully effective until 2035. The paper documents a pattern of decreasing pensionable ages that reversed in the 1990s, with many countries raising pensionable ages since the beginning of that decade, though generally with future effective dates. Pensionable‐age policy provides insight into broader issues in social policy, such as whether social policies across countries have converged over time. The paper also examines the time pattern in the movement toward gender equality in social programmes.     

Effects of sharing the parental leave on pensioners’ poverty and gender inequality in old age: A simulation in IFSIM

Female old age poverty is affected by family policy reforms which are meant to promote gender equality when young. Using our in house agent based simulation model IFSIM we show that sharing equally the parental leave can increase or reduce poverty among elderly women depending on the macro and behavioural (i.e. labour supply) responses that the reform off-sets. In general, the reform can be good for highly educated women, who will have an incentive to work more full time thanks to their higher earnings, which can compensate any loss in household income due to the man's staying home. For lower educated however, work might not pay as much and a reduction in labour supply might actually ensue (e.g. to reduce childcare costs). This will reduce also their pension rights at retirement. Furthermore, keeping men at home might slow down economic growth, and consequently growth of income pension accounts will be lower. This effect, combined with lower pension contributions (due to reduced labour supply), might result in higher poverty rates for women with lower education, compared to a scenario where the woman takes the whole leave. Other policies, such as more subsidised child care, might be an alternative worth considering to reduce female poverty in old age more evenly across educational levels.     

France: working longer takes time,in spite of reforms to raise the retirement age

Examination of the French situation from a comparative European perspective exposes the country's poor performance with regard to the employment of seniors and the prolongation of working life. Despite a recent rise in the employment rate of 55–59 year‐olds, worrisome signs have appeared, such as the steep rise in unemployment for this age category; this is indicative of the increasing vulnerability of ageing workers in the labour market. This critical analysis of twenty years of French public policies related to older workers seeks to identify the reasons for France's lag in making working life longer. The principal reason seems to be that public policies have nearly exclusively focused on increasing the supply of senior labour without adequately taking into account incentives for stimulating corporate demand for it. The many pension reforms undertaken from 2003 to 2014 have sought to lift the institutional obstacles to working longer. Accordingly, they have raised both the legal retirement age and the requisite number of quarters of contributions for entitlement to a full pension under Social Security. But effective, active labour market policies for stimulating the demand for senior labour have been lacking.     

The old‐age pension law in Mexico: The promise of poverty in old age?

In 1997, Mexico replaced its main old‐age pension system with an individual capitalization system. In 2021, the first people subject to the new system will retire. Using a model that projects demographic and labour variables and using Monte Carlo simulations, the findings of this study show that in 2051 the percentage of men not having a pension will increase from 38 per cent to 59 per cent, and that of women from 44 per cent to 66 per cent. The replacement rate for the average Mexican worker will fall from 70 per cent to 30 per cent. The numbers of people in extreme poverty will increase by almost 2.8 million, representing 9.44 per cent of the population. Alternative scenarios are proposed that involve increasing the contribution rate and raising the retirement age.     

Evaluating the Possible Impact of Pension Reforms on Elderly Poverty in Europe

Since the 1990s, reforms have changed substantially both the nature of state pension provision and the level of generosity. This article tries to assess the impact of these changes using estimates of pension wealth for a number of hypothetical cases. By focusing on all prospective pension transfers rather than just those at the point of retirement, this approach can provide additional insights, especially on the impact of changes in benefit indexation. These estimates corroborate existing evidence that reforms have decreased generosity significantly. Moves to link benefits to contributions have made systems less progressive, raising adequacy concerns for certain groups. The reforms have, in particular, strengthened the need of ensuring better access to labour markets, of having in place adequate crediting arrangements and minimum pensions.     

Pensions in the European Union: Adapting to Economic and Social Changes

Throughout the European Union, pension schemes are undergoing a process of adaptation to a completely different context. Some of the main stumbling blocks to this process are the great number of issues involved and the diversity of questions that these raise: demographic changes, the labour market, economic growth, social justice, the ways of regulating the established provisions and decision-making in their regard. These dimensions do not offer ready-made answers, from the standpoint of pension financing. Apart from the complexity of the situation, however, a fundamental component of European societies is definitely at stake here: the ability to guarantee a decent level of security to all citizens when they reach retirement age.     

ISSUES AFFECTING WOMEN'S RETIREMENT PLANNING

There has been a steep rise over the past 20 years in the proportion of women who enter the workforce, with a concomitant increase in the number of women who will be retiring in the next 20 years. In the past, the majority of women over 60 have either been supported by their husbands superannuation benefits, or have been dependent on a government pension. This situation is unlikely to continue; it is becoming increasingly essential for women to make provision for their own post-retirement income. However available evidence suggests that women are not effectively planning for their retirement and are increasingly at risk of facing a life of poverty in their old age. This research project examines some of the factors that impact on women's capacity to effectively plan their retirement. In particular, the research explores the attitudes of women to retirement planning, access to information, and external impediments particularly labour market conditions.     

The Current Situation of Retirement Income Provisions in Japan: Social Security Pension Schemes and Corporate Pension Plans

Japan has been faced with rapid population ageing for decades. This has continuously reduced the level of social security pension benefits. Based on this it is often said that corporate pension plans should play a wider role forward in providing retirement benefits. However, we also have to know that there is a limit to what corporate pension plans can do in place of the social security pension schemes. In this paper we extract lessons from the history of social security pension schemes in our country and try to define the roles of corporate pension plans and social security pension schemes. In conclusion we should keep adequacy of social security pension benefits even if the contribution rate becomes a bit higher. Corporate pension plans just enrich people's life in retirement. We have to remember that corporate pension plans were not certain means for reducing the poverty in old age and that for this reason social security pension schemes by social insurance were invented.     

The Reform of Mutual Aid Associations in Japan: Civil Service Employee Pension Reform in 2012

Civil service employee pension reform began by removing non‐clerical work from the main body of the Mutual Aid Association (MAA) pension system. Further changes were based on administrative reform and pension jealousy. In particular, the Nakasone cabinet's administrative reform privatized the non‐clerical sector. Before the 1979 reform, the pensionable age was 55 for the MAA and 60 for the Employee Pension Insurance (EPI) scheme. The MAA pension benefit formula adopted the final salary system, which was larger than the average lifetime salary calculation used for EPI benefits. The final salary system was abolished during the 1986 reform. Public employee criticism over “Amakudari” led to further civil service employee remuneration reform in 2005. In 2007, the Social Insurance Agency pension record scandal led to a change of government by 2009. The biggest reform of the MAA pension system was the abolishment of the occupational portion of the pension, a compromise between the government and unions. We project that this compromise will cost 22 trillion yen over 90 years old. After 2055, the newly established MAA pension scheme will be abolished; thus the public pension may finally be sustainable.     

Promoting a higher retirement age: A prospect‐theoretical approach

Demographic ageing and the necessity of raising the retirement age is one of the most frequently debated topics among European welfare policy experts. This study used prospect theory as developed in behavioural economics to explain public attitudes towards pension reforms. It argues that, in line with prospect theory, negative incentives are more useful in changing people's attitudes in favour of a higher statutory retirement age than are positive incentives. Therefore, in the case of increasing life expectancy, defined‐contribution schemes that apply actuarial formulae linking the level of starting monthly pension benefits to life expectancy are more useful in promoting a higher retirement age than conventional defined‐benefit schemes, which typically do not forge an automatic connection between longevity and starting pensions. The implications of prospect theory for attitudes towards pension reforms were tested using Eurobarometer survey data collected in 2004 and 2009 in the Czech Republic, Poland and Slovakia.     

The challenge of pension reform in Georgia: Non‐contributory pensions and elderly poverty

Georgia's national social security system offers almost universal non‐contributory basic pension coverage. The basic pension has, to date, proved effective in dealing with old‐age poverty. But Georgia's fiscal constraints and ageing population also highlight the importance of improving the pension system, in order to ensure its sustainability. This article presents policy reform choices, which suggest that, in Georgia, pension reform might include increasing the statutory retirement ages and reducing the generosity of benefits through means testing. The case of the Georgian non‐contributory basic pension might hold value for some low‐ and middle‐income countries that are considering the implementation of, or expanding coverage under, a non‐contributory pension programme.     

Christian democracy, social democracy and the paradoxes of earnings-related social security

This article compares the retirement policies of Belgium and Sweden in order to reveal the different incentive structures built into the pensions systems prevailing in countries that are taken to represent different approaches to welfare capitalism. It addresses the question of why in a Christian Democratic welfare state that is said to grant pensions rights on the basis of merit and past work performance one can find extremely low labour-force participation rates among elderly workers, while in a Social Democratic welfare state that is supposed to grant pension rights relatively independent of past labour-market performance, one can find quite high participation rates amongst that section of the labour force. This apparent paradox is explained in terms of the different purposes of the early-retirement schemes in the two countries: in Belgium they were primarily part of a strategy to combat (youth) unemployment, in Sweden they had more to do with reforms that sought to accomplish a 'humanisation of work' by softening the abrupt transition from work into retirement.     

The gender gap in pensions in Latin America

Lower female lifetime labour market participation rates, greater interruptions during their working lives, and wage gaps contribute to create gender gaps in pensions at the time of retirement. The design of social security systems may reinforce or attenuate these gaps. This article provides new evidence on gender gaps in access to pensions and in pension income in four Southern Cone countries in Latin America and analyses their evolution between 2000 and 2013, showing significant improvements in both gaps, with differential patterns by countries. The decrease in the gender gap in pension income has been particularly significant in Argentina and Brazil. In both cases, the largest increases in pension values during the period correspond to the lowest income percentiles, where women are overrepresented. The application of redistributive policies in these countries, aimed at reducing poverty and inequality but not necessarily focused on gender equity, has had positive and probably unintended consequences in terms of reduction in gender gaps in pensions.