THE EFFECT OF WELFARE PROGRAMS ON CRIMINAL BEHAVIOR: A THEORETICAL AND EMPIRICAL ANALYSIS

A simple economic model of criminal behavior shows that welfare payments will reduce the time allocated to illegal activities under risk aversion and other reasonable assumptions. This theoretical prediction is confirmed by the empirical findings: using a set of cross-sectional U.S. state data for 1987, it is found that cash or in-kind welfare programs have a negative and often significant effect on property crime. More general programs such as public housing seem to have a larger effect than those aimed primarily at women (AFDC). Medicaid and school lunch programs apparently have little effect on property crime.     

THEORY OF SEGMENTED ASSIMILATION AND THE ADOPTION OF MARIJUANA USE AND DELINQUENT BEHAVIOR BY ASIAN PACIFIC YOUTH

This article examines the adoption of behaviors of the teen drug and delinquent subcultures among Asian Pacific youth within the framework of the theory of segmented assimilation. Alejandro Portes and Min Zhou's theory offers a new perspective to the question: Under what conditions are youth susceptible to marijuana use and delinquent behavior? In contrast to Milton Gordon's classic one‐path theory, segmented assimilation theory looks to the immigrant culture and social capital (e.g., social solidarity) as critical factors in the assimilation process. The theory suggests several different types of adaptation by immigrant youth and Asian youth born in the United States. The data from the Asian Student Drug Survey were used to analyze the patterns of marijuana use and delinquent behavior among Japanese. Chinese, Filipino. Korean, Southeast Asian, Asian Indian, and Pacific Islander youth, controlling for human capital and social capital, as well as other relevant factors. Logistic regression analysis was used to determine the factors that affect the odds of marijuana use and delinquent behavior for the seven ethnic groups in this study. The likelihood of marijuana use differed significantly among the ethnic groups. For example, Pacific Islander and Filipino youth were much more likely than Japanese youth to use marijuana. Korean, Southeast Asian, and Asian Indian youth did not differ significantly from the Japanese youth in marijuana use. Like the model that predicted marijuana use, the Chinese youth were least likely to engage in delinquent behavior, while Filipino and Pacific Islander youth were most likely. Segmented assimilation theory points to the importance of the human and social capital that serve to insulate youth from the influence of the teen drug and delinquent cultures.     

METROPOLITAN STRUCTURE AND CRIMINAL VIOLENCE

This article re-examines the conclusions of an earlier paper (Blau and Blau. 1982);i.e., that racial inequality in metropolitan places increases criminal violence and is accountable for various factors to which this violence is often attributed, notably poverty, race, and the Southern subculture of violence. The replication confirms the basic original hypothesis that a Standard Metropolitan Statistical Area's (SMSA) racial inequality in socioeconomic status raises its rates of violent crime. This article also supports the earlier findings that rates of criminal violence are higher in larger SMSAs and in SMSAs with a great number of marital conflicts and disruptions (as indicated by the large proportion of divorced and separated), and that these rates are unrelated to an SMSA's poverty level once other conditions are controlled. However, when interaction effects and curvilinear relationships are taken into consideration, criminal violence is seen to depend considerably on an SMSA's racial composition and to be more prevalent in SMSAs with a largely Southern population than in others, which supports the thesis of a Southern subculture of violence.     

CYBERNETICS AND AMERICAN YOUTH SUBCULTURE

Similar shifts can be seen in the use of cybernetic modelling across a wide variety of scientific disciplines. This article will categorize these shifts in terms of three historical phases: (1) modern cybernetics, focused on digital hierarchical systems, which reached its high point in the late 1960s; (2) transitional postmodern cybernetics, focused on analogue decentralized systems, which started in the late 1970s; and (3) stable postmodern cybernetics, based on a synthesis between the analogue/digital and centralized/decentralized oppositions, which started in the late 1980s. While the shifts themselves can be explained by internalist narratives, the ways in which youth subculture closely parallels these changes suggests that there are causal links between cybernetics and popular culture which work in both directions.     

YOUTH,REVOLUTION, AND REPRESSION

We develop a simple model to study the effect of age structure on the interactions between the state and dissidents. Younger populations are more prone to protest. As the population grows younger, states that can discriminately target repression to different groups, but cannot concede discriminately, decrease repression. In contrast, states that can target concession, but not repression, increase repression. We test these results in nonmilitary single‐party regimes and military regimes without political parties. Moreover, we study state response to dissent in East European communist regimes in the late 1980s, showing that state response was more repressive in countries with younger populations. (JEL D74)     

CRIMINAL OPPORTUNITY THEORY AND THE RELATIONSHIP BETWEEN POVERTY AND PROPERTY CRIME

Criminal opportunity theory suggests that community economic deprivation has two countervailing effects on property crime: it causes strain and disorganization which may encourage some individuals to offend, but it also simultaneously lessens opportunities to engage in property crime by reducing the supply of worthwhile targets in an area. The present study examines the relationship between economic deprivation and rates of burglary and motor vehicle theft for census tracts in two large American cities (Austin and Seattle). Regression analyses support the opportunity saturation hypothesis derived from criminal opportunity theory. This hypothesis suggests that the relationship between levels of deprivation and property crime is curvilinear where the positive effect of deprivation on property crime is stronger at low levels of neighborhood poverty than it is at high levels. Research and policy implications are discussed.     

SURVEY EVIDENCE ON EXCESSIVE PUBLIC PESSIMISM ABOUT THE FUTURE BEHAVIOR OF UNEMPLOYMENT

Two of the questions in the Surveys of Consumer Attitudes undertakenby the Survey Research Center of the University of Michigandeal with households' expectations about inflation and the changein unemployment. We compare quarterly time series of the meanresponses with the actual behavior of inflation and unemploymentto see whether households are overly optimistic or pessimisticabout the future behavior of inflation and unemployment. Wefind an asymmetry. Over the 21 years of our analysis, on averagethe public is neither overly optimistic nor overly pessimisticabout future inflation. However, the public has been significantlytoo pessimistic about the future behavior of unemployment. Theseresults have an important implication for macroeconomic policy.If politicians respond to complaints from the public about inflationand unemployment they will target policy instruments at unemploymentto a greater extent than if the public was not so pessimisticabout the behavior of unemployment. The result may be a higherrate of inflation than if the public were not mistakenly pessimisticabout the behavior of unemployment.     

THE BOOKER DECISION AND DISCRIMINATION IN FEDERAL CRIMINAL SENTENCES

I test how federal criminal sentences changed after the Supreme Court decision U.S. v. Booker changed the sentencing guidelines from “mandatory” to “advisory.” Conditional on final guideline cell, results show Booker significantly reduced sentences, especially for women and defendants with a terminal high school degree, but less so for college graduates. This suggests discrimination among federal judges. When accounting for judges' control over final offense level, evidence regarding high school graduates and college graduates is unchanged, but evidence that sentences fell for women and the default group weakens substantially. This latter result suggests, perhaps, a new methodology by which judges applied offense levels and guideline‐conditional sentences post‐Booker.     

HIGHER EDUCATION AND CRIMINAL OFFENDING OVER THE LIFE COURSE

Educational attainment and school bonding are established predictors of delinquent behavior. In spite of an abundance of research on the relationship between education and delinquency, there is little research that examines the impact of education on stability and change in criminal offending over the life course. This dearth of research is surprising given the increasing significance of post-secondary education in contemporary society and the prominence of the life course approach in the study of crime. The current study uses seven waves of data from the National Youth Survey to examine the impact of higher education on criminal offending over the life course. Findings indicate that college attendance and investment in higher education are negatively associated with criminal offending in adulthood. In addition, the protective effect of higher education is stronger for individuals who were more delinquent during adolescence. Study limitations and future research needs are discussed.     

VOTING AND IMITATIVE BEHAVIOR

Political behavior generates private benefits by helping people fit in with desired friends. A voter imitates other voters, but at the same time they imitate him. An equilibrium solution requires exogenous variables: the narrow self-interest of the participants. The reduced form makes one's vote a function of the narrow self-interest of others as well as one's own. In accord with the model, a person's party identification depends on his ethnic group's current income and its income in 1909 as well as his own income.     

LEAD EXPOSURE AND BEHAVIOR: EFFECTS ON ANTISOCIAL AND RISKY BEHAVIOR AMONG CHILDREN AND ADOLESCENTS

It is well known that exposure to lead has numerous adverse effects on behavior and development. Using data on two cohorts of children from the National Longitudinal Survey of Youth (NLSY), this paper investigates the effect of early childhood lead exposure on behavior problems from childhood through early adulthood. I find large negative consequences of early childhood lead exposure, in the form of an unfolding series of adverse behavioral outcomes: behavior problems as a child, pregnancy and aggression as a teen, and criminal behavior as a young adult. At the levels of lead that were the norm in United States until the late 1980s, estimated elasticities of these behaviors with respect to lead range between 0.1 and 1.0. (JEL I18, J13, K49, Q53, Q58)     

THE ORGANIZATION AND CONSEQUENCES OF SOCIAL PASTS IN CRIMINAL COURTS

This article demonstrates the contributions of Katovich and Couch's (1992) formal theory of social pasts to conceptualizations of social world contexts and processual order (Strauss 1978; 1993). Using interview and observational data from three criminal courts, I focus on the interrelationship of two social world contextual features: (1) the organization of participants' social pasts, and (2) the degree of ideological consensus between participants in terms of sentencing goals. These two factors interact to influence interorganizational relationships in the three courts; and, in combination with individual criminal case characteristics, influence actors' case processing strategies. The article concludes by discussing the implications of the organization of social pasts in criminal courts and organizational arenas in general for the availability and attractiveness of alternative action strategies, as well as the management of uncertainty in organizational decision making. I also suggest several directions for further research.     

POSTMODERNISM, POSTINDUSTRIALISM, AND THE FUTURE

In order to describe the main features of future American society, the main changes already occurring are discussed, a theory is formulated that explains these changes, and this theory is applied to the future. Three well-known theories are used as a starting point: Habermas's theory of systems, his theory of lifeworlds, and general conflict theory. To account for a variety of systems, a theory of the "organizing" process is proposed. To explain the trans-formation of lifeworlds, a simplified theory of the "communicative" process is outlined. To gain insight into cultural change, the theory of "oppositional" process is presented. The main conclusions are that we are witnessing a shift from "system" to "lifeworld" and that both postindustrial structures and postmodern culture contribute to and are symptoms of this shift. Moreover, future American societies, shaped by this shift, will have many properties of the preindustrial gemeinschafts.     

LABOR-MARKET CONSEQUENCES OF POOR ATTITUDE AND LOW SELF-ESTEEM IN YOUTH

Using longitudinal data on a cohort of high-school graduates, I show that youth who reveal poor attitude and self-esteem subsequently attain fewer years of postsecondary education relative to their high school cohort, are less likely to be employed 14 years following high school and, where working for pay, realize lower earnings. Furthermore, I find evidence that poor attitude and self-esteem in high school are significant predictors of structural outcomes, such as the degree of supervision under which individuals subsequently work, job characteristics, and on-the-job activities. These relationships suggest that real economic consequence exist in fostering positive attitude and self-esteem in youth. (JEL J13 , J20 , J30 )     

REPRODUCING CRIMINAL TYPES

Based upon observation in a cognitive treatment program for incarcerated violent offenders, this article uses a social constructionist approach to examine the program's rhetorical construction of inmates as particular "types'of beings. The program's practices contain ideological representations of criminals that, in turn, sustain and reproduce the program's logic. Specifically, the typification of inmates'"erroneous thoughts'and "anger'is examined as an example of how inmates are "talked into being'criminal types (Heritage 1984, p. 290). Inmates are asked to decontextualize and rearticulate their criminal pasts according to a criminological language of "cognitive distortions'deemed characteristic of criminal "personalities.'In this reductionist process, inmates'"techniques of neutralization'(Sykes and Matza 1957) are stripped away. Facilitators interpret inmates'social and situational counterrhetorics as indications of their criminal minds, thereby sustaining the individualistic typification in criminal classification and correctional philosophy. Thus, the micropolitics of the Cognitive Self-Change program reveals the dynamic, discursive construction of criminal selves according to institutional conditions and demands. In conclusion, it is argued that institutions engaged in managing human conduct require particular constructions of pathological individuals in order to do their work.     

TRANSACTION RISK AND BIDDING BEHAVIOR

This paper analyzes a model of consumer behavior where transaction risk in the form of a divergence between bid and executed demand is incorporated into the consumer's decision process. A neutral assumption concerning risk preferences, combined with income and expenditure constraints, is shown to be sufficient to generate behavior commonly associated with risk aversion. Such responses to transaction risk are referred to as objective reactions as opposed to subjective attitudes toward risk. The income effect is shown to play an important role in determining behavioral reactions to this type of risk.     

ADOLESCENT WORK AND BOYS' AND GIRLS' ORIENTATIONS TO THE FUTURE

This study compares adolescent boys' and girls' aspirations and plans concerning achievement, family, and other adult life spheres, and examines the effects of adolescent work experience on these future orientations. The data were obtained from 1001 students, chosen randomly from a list of enrolled ninth graders in a large Midwestern city. Girls were not found to have lower achievement orientations than boys. Examination of the interrelations of achievement and family plans suggests that boys see their future educational, work, and family roles as more closely integrated than do girls. Just as work and family roles are mutually supportive for adult men but in conflict for adult women, so too do employed adolescent boys appear to be developing traditional family orientations, while employed girls, especially those much exposed to formal work, expect less involvement in marriage and family life. The analyses indicate that paid work is traditionalizing for boys, promoting optimism about, and commitment to, numerous adult life domains; but for girls, formal work lessens interest in traditional female gender roles.     

FRATERNITY MEMBERSHIP AND DRINKING BEHAVIOR

This paper estimates the impact of fraternity and sorority membership on a wide array of drinking outcomes among respondents to four Harvard College Alcohol Study surveys from 1993 to 2001. Identification is achieved by including proxies for specific types of unobserved heterogeneity expected to influence the relationship. These include high school and parental drinking behaviors to account for time-invariant omitted factors and assessed importance of drinking-related activities and reasons for drinking to control for changes in preferences since starting college. Because self-selection is quantitatively important, I further hold constant variables plausibly affected by fraternity membership, such as current alcohol use categorization, ranging from abstainer to heavy drinker, and time spent socializing. Even in the fully saturated model, fraternity membership significantly increases drinking intensity, frequency, and recency, as well as the prevalence of many deleterious drinking consequences that potentially carry negative externalities. ( JEL I12, I20)     

SEPARATED WOMEN AND REMARRIAGE BEHAVIOR

It has been established that women of higher socio-economic status (SES) tend to remarry less and less rapidly after divorce than women who are less educated and less independent financilly. Using an exchange theory model, it is assumed that higher SES women stand to gain less from remarriage than lower SES women. In-depth interviews of separated/divorced women, thirteen at a higher SES and thirteen at a lower SES, explored the hypothesis that women who are financially secure behave differently towards potential mates than do women who are less secure financially. The results show that financially secure women have more opportunities to meet men, have more dates, and have more steady relationships than the others. But, in support of the hypothesis, they are more likely to break up relationships that do not suit them, they are less likely to tolerate abusive male behavior towards them, and less likely to flatter a man's ego. They display some behavior which is dysfunctional on the remarriage market. The discussion of the results focuses on the interrelation between socio-economic variables and personality/behavioral variables, including dependency and self-esteem.