STRATEGIC INFORMATION DISCLOSURE: THE CASE OF MULTIATTRIBUTE PRODUCTS WITH HETEROGENEOUS CONSUMERS

We examine the incentives for firms to voluntarily disclose otherwise private information about the quality attributes of their products. In particular, we focus on the case of differentiated products with multiple attributes and heterogeneous consumers. We show that there exist certain configurations of consumers' multidimensional preferences under which a firm, no matter whether producing a high‐ or low‐quality product, may choose not to reveal the quality even with zero disclosure costs. The failure of information unraveling arises when providing consumers with more information results in more elastic demand, which triggers more intensive price competition and leads to lower prices and profits for competing firms. As a result, the equilibrium in which disclosure is voluntary may diverge from that in which disclosure is mandatory. (JEL L15, L5)     

ACQUISITION AND DISSEMINATION OF INFORMATION IN IMPERFECTLY COMPETITIVE MARKETS

In imperfectly competitive markets, incentives for the acquisition and dissemination of information by prices is significantly affected by strategic considerations. Since prices reveal information, firms possessing market power may choose to set prices which are either biased or not adjusted to all available information so as to distort their information content. Even when information is costlessly available strategic considerations may lead firms to remain uninformed. These results are illustrated in a simple Stackelberg model with price-setting firms where the pricing game is preceded by an information acquisition game.     

A THEORY OF BILATERAL OLIGOPOLY

In horizontal mergers, concentration is often measured with the Hirschman–Herfindahl Index (HHI). This index yields the price–cost margins in Cournot competition. In many modern merger cases, both buyers and sellers have market power, and indeed, the buyers and sellers may be the same set of firms. In such cases, the HHI is inapplicable. We develop an alternative theory that has similar data requirements as the HHI, applies to intermediate good industries with arbitrary numbers of firms on both sides, and specializes to the HHI when buyers have no market power. The more inelastic is the downstream demand, the more captive production and consumption (not traded in the intermediate market) affects price–cost margins. The analysis is applied to the merger of the gasoline refining and retail assets of Exxon and Mobil in the western United States. (JEL L13, L41)     

HORIZONTAL MERGERS IN THE PRESENCE OF CAPACITY CONSTRAINTS

We examine a merger between two competitors in a Bertrand‐Edgeworth model. We find that the effects of merger depend on the tightness of capacity constraints. The combination of two firms has no price effect if and only if the capacity constraints of all firms are binding both before and after the merger. However, a merger may turn a binding capacity constraint into a slack one, which results in higher prices. In an industry where excess capacity drives the premerger prices of all firms to the marginal cost, a merger may cause prices to rise even though aggregate capacity remains constant. (JEL L13, L40)     

QUALITY DIFFERENCES,THIRD‐DEGREE PRICE DISCRIMINATION,AND WELFARE

We propose a model with two markets to analyze the welfare implications of price discrimination with quality differences. In each market a local firm that operates in that market only competes against a global firm that operates in both markets. Local firms produce higher‐quality goods than the global firm. If the quality levels of the local firms' products are the same, price discrimination is never welfare‐decreasing. If they differ, discrimination is welfare‐increasing if quantity increases. Because of a positive allocation effect of price discrimination, there are parameter values such that welfare increases while total output decreases with price discrimination. (JEL D43, D60)     

LEFT FOR DEAD: ANTI‐COMPETITIVE BEHAVIOR IN ORBITAL SPACE

In a dynamic investment framework with depreciation, we show incumbent satellite operators have incentives to “warehouse” a fraction of their assigned spectrum and orbital slots, keeping nonoperational assets in place, which reduces output, increases prices, and diminishes social welfare. Exploring three distinct market structures, we model firms' incentives to warehouse, and show conditions under which firms choose to warehouse rather than replace nonfunctioning satellites. We find a dominant firm with a competitive fringe produces more and longer duration warehousing relative to perfect competition or monopoly. Regulators could remediate warehousing by increasing a firm's marginal costs, or by increasing the probability of reallocating orbital slots that do not have a fully functioning satellite. (JEL L9, L5)     

FORECASTING CRUDE OIL PRICE MOVEMENTS WITH OIL‐SENSITIVE STOCKS

This paper uses monthly data from 1984:M10 to 2012:M8 to show that oil‐sensitive stock price indices, particularly those in the energy sector, have strong power in predicting nominal and real crude oil prices at short horizons (1‐month‐ahead predictions), using both in‐ and out‐of‐sample tests. In particular, the forecasts based on oil‐sensitive stock price indices are able to outperform significantly the no‐change forecasts. For example, using the NYSE Arca (AMEX) oil index as a predictor, the 1‐month‐ahead forecasts for nominal crude oil prices reduce the mean squared prediction error by between 22% (for the West Texas Intermediate oil price) and 28% (for the Dubai oil price). Moreover, we find that the directional forecast based on the AMEX oil index is significantly better than a 50:50 coin toss. The novelty of this analysis is that it proposes a new and valuable predictor that both reflects timely market information and is readily available for forecasting the spot oil price.(JEL G17, Q43, Q47, C53)     

THE INCENTIVES FOR RESALE PRICE MAINTENANCE UNDER IMPERFECT INFORMATION

This paper considers both the incentives for and the welfare effects of resale price maintenance (RPM) in retail markets characterized by imperfect consumer information. In markets where point-of-sale information on the product is essential for sales and information on prices is costly, RPM permits manufacturers with some monopoly power to resolve two incentive conflicts with retailers. First, because retailers with price-setting powers do not appropriate the gains in profit to an upstream manufacturer from actions taken to increase demand, their incentives to inform consumers of the product and to set low prices are inadequate. This purely vertical externality results in the classic "double mark-up" of final prices. Second, when consumers' costs of price search vary, stores offering low prices and no information can exist in the market equilibrium. These discount houses free-ride on the informational services of high-price informing retail outlets — a horizontal externality. In the imperfect information setting of this paper, (1) administered pricing improves monopolists' profits by resolving the incentive conflict; (2) the profitable use of a price floor reduces the maximum retail price charged and may reduce the average retail price; (3) price floors or administered prices can be Pareto-improving and more likely welfare (surplus)-improving; (4) price floors are welfare-improving.     

TRACKING CUSTOMER SEARCH TO PRICE DISCRIMINATE

The electronic technologies of the Internet make it possible for sellers to track potential customers and discriminate between the informed and uninformed. In this article, we report an experiment that investigates the market impact of firms tracking customers and offering discriminatory prices based on search history. We find that consumers, on average, face the same prices when sellers have the ability to track customers and price discriminate as when sellers post a single price for all buyers. However, informed buyers receive lower prices when sellers can detect buyer search, whereas uninformed buyers receive lower prices when firms cannot track customers. (JEL D43 , L13 , C92 )     

PRICE COMPETITION UNDER COST UNCERTAINTY: A LABORATORY ANALYSIS

We study the relation between the number of firms and price-cost margins under price competition with uncertainty about competitors' costs. We report an experiment in which two, three, and four identical firms repeatedly interact in this environment. In line with the theoretical prediction, market prices decrease with the number of firms, but on average stay above marginal costs. Pricing is more aggressive than in equilibrium. Absolute and relative surplus increases with the number of firms. Total surplus is close to the equilibrium level, because enhanced consumer surplus through lower prices is counteracted by occasional displacements of the most cost-efficient firm. (JEL C90 , C72 , D43 , D83 , L13 )     

Gift-giving and deadweight loss

Although economic theory asserts that cash is often superior to gifts in-kind for maximizing welfare, there has been no empirical consensus on whether in-kind gift-giving destroys or creates value—i.e., whether recipients value gifts less than, as much as, or more than givers pay for them. The present study introduces a simple but important methodological innovation. Whereas prior studies focused exclusively on recipients’ estimates of the costs of gifts, we obtain more objective information on actual market prices. We also compare gifts in-kind to gift cards. We find a deadweight loss that averages more than 7 percent of the market price on gifts in-kind, and more than 14 percent on gift cards.     

Do buyers and sellers evaluate air pollution reduction differently? Experimental evidence from China

This paper is the first study to investigate the good dealness account of the endowment effect in non-market goods. We designed a within-subjects experiment to measure the value of air pollution reduction through the evaluation of a market good, PM 2.5 filters. We divided the subjects into buyers and sellers and asked them to trade four PM 2.5 filters using the Becker–DeGroot–Marschak auction under two treatments: a) a drop in air quality, which served to increase the market price of the filters; and b) the receipt of information on the relationship between death rates and air pollution, which served to increase the intrinsic value of the filters. Our results show that buyers’ willingness to pay for pollution reduction did not increase when air pollution worsened but did increase when informed of the possibility of health damage from air pollution. Sellers’ willingness to accept for air quality deterioration increased when pollution worsened but remained the same upon receiving information about health damage. We conclude that sellers are more sensitive to changes in market price, while buyers are more sensitive to changes in intrinsic value. Our findings support the theory of seeking a good deal in explaining the endowment effect.     

Finite decentralization in a Tiebout economy with crowding types

We study a model with local public goods in which agents' crowding effects are formally distinguished from their taste types. It has been shown that the core of such an economy can be decentralized with anonymous admission prices (which are closely related to cost share prices). Unfortunately, such a price system allows for an arbitrary relationship between the public goods level in a given jurisdiction and the cost to an agent for joining. Formally, this means that admission prices are infinite dimensional. Attempts to decentralize the core with finite price systems such as Lindahl prices suggest that this is possible only under fairly restrictive conditions. In this paper, we introduce a new type of price system called finite cost shares. This system has strictly larger dimension than Lindahl prices but, in contrast to general cost share prices, is finite. We show that this allows for decentralization of the core under more general conditions than are possible with Lindahl prices. Received: 18 January 2000/Accepted: 21 January 2002 The authors would like to thank two anonymous referees for their helpful comments.     

DESIGNED TO FAIL: THE MEDICARE AUCTION FOR DURABLE MEDICAL EQUIPMENT

We examine the theoretical properties of the auction for Medicare Durable Medical Equipment. Two unique features of the Medicare auction are (1) winners are paid the median winning bid and (2) bids are nonbinding. We show that median pricing results in allocation inefficiencies as some high‐cost firms potentially displace low‐cost firms as winners. Further, the auction may leave demand unfulfilled as some winners refuse to supply because the price is set below their cost. We also introduce a model of nonbinding bids that establishes the rationality of a lowball bid strategy employed by many bidders in the actual Medicare auctions and recently replicated in Caltech experiments. We contrast the median‐price auction with the standard clearing‐price auction where each firm bids true costs as a dominant strategy, resulting in competitive equilibrium prices and full efficiency. (JEL D44, I11, H57)     

FORECASTING WITH SOCIAL MEDIA: EVIDENCE FROM TWEETS ON SOCCER MATCHES

Social media is now used as a forecasting tool by a variety of firms and agencies. But how useful are such data in forecasting outcomes? Can social media add any information to that produced by a prediction/betting market? We source 13.8 million posts from Twitter, and combine them with contemporaneous Betfair betting prices, to forecast the outcomes of English Premier League soccer matches as they unfold. Using a microblogging dictionary to analyze the content of Tweets, we find that the aggregate tone of Tweets contains significant information not in betting prices, particularly in the immediate aftermath of goals and red cards. (JEL G14, G17)     

MONETARY NEUTRALITY UNDER EVOLUTIONARY DOMINANCE OF BOUNDED RATIONALITY

We provide evolutionary game‐theoretic microfoundations to a dynamic complete nominal adjustment in response to a monetary shock by introducing a novel analytical notion that we call boundedly rational inattentiveness. We investigate the behavior of the general price level in a context where a firm can either pay a cost (featuring a random component) to update its information set and establish the optimal price (Nash strategy) or freely use non‐updated information and establish a lagged optimal price (bounded rationality strategy). We devise evolutionary microdynamics (with and without mutation) that, by interacting with the dynamics of the aggregate variables, determines the coevolution of the frequency distribution of information‐updating strategies in the population of firms and the extent of the nominal adjustment of the general price level to a monetary shock. As it turns out, evolutionary learning dynamics take the information‐updating process to a long‐run equilibrium configuration in which, albeit either most or even all firms play the bounded rationality strategy, the general price level is the symmetric Nash equilibrium price and the monetary shocks have persistent, although not permanent, impacts on real output. (JEL E31, C73, D83)     

AUCTIONS WITH RESALE OPPORTUNITIES: AN EXPERIMENTAL STUDY

We study first price asymmetric private value auctions with resale opportunities presented in seller's and buyer's markets. We offer experimental evidence on bidding behavior, prices, and resource allocation. Building upon the Hafalir and Krishna (2008) model, we find that bidders will bid higher in an auction if the resale market is a seller's market than a buyer's market. There is a price/revenue‐efficiency trade‐off established theoretically between these two resale regimes. In equilibrium, however, final efficiency is high irrespective of the resale market structure. Evidence of bid symmetrization and higher final efficiency is found in the buyer‐advantaged resale case. (JEL D44, C92)     

Determinants of buyers' aspiration and reservation price

Previous research has suggested that an initial offer or an estimated market price is adopted as cognitive reference point in a price negotiation. In contrast, in an experiment with 24 psychology and 24 business administration students playing the role of buyers of condominiums, it was found that subjects adopted their reservation price as a reference point although it was influenced by an estimated market price. In a second and third experiment with a total of 32 psychology and 75 business administration students, a close correspondence was also observed between buyers' indicated aspiration prices and their estimates of sellers' reservation prices in that both were similarly affected by an estimated market price. In choosing an aspiration price, buyers may attempt to infer how the sellers' reservation price changes with an estimated market price.     

MODELING INFORMALITY FORMALLY: HOUSEHOLDS AND FIRMS

Informality is widespread in most developing countries. In Latin America, 50% of salaried employees work informally. Three stylized facts characterize informality: (1) small firms tend to operate informally while large firms tend to operate formally; (2) unskilled workers tend to be informal while skilled ones have formal jobs; (3) ceteris paribus, secondary workers (a worker other than the household head) are less likely to operate formally than primary workers. We develop a model that accounts for all these facts. In our model, both heterogeneous firms and workers have preferences over the sector they operate and choose optimally whether to function formally or informally. There are two labor markets, one formal and the other informal, and both firms and workers act unconstrained in them. By contrast, a prominent feature of the preexisting literature is that workers' decisions play no role in determining the equilibrium of the economy. In our model, policies that reduce the supply of workers in the informal labor market at given wages will increase the level of formality in the economy. This has noteworthy implications for the design of social programs in developing countries. We also show that an increase in the participation of secondary workers would tend to raise the level of informality in the economy. (JEL J24, J33)     

WHO BIDS THE MOST FOR MARKET POWER?

In the traditional industrial organization literature market structure is an exogenous variable. However, sometimes market structure is a matter of choice. Firms can choose to operate as monopolists, but only if they pay for this right. When market structure is chosen a natural question is, “What types of firms will pay the price to operate as monopolists, and how will they differ from their competitive counterparts?” This paper develops a model which addresses this question and arrives at results that are novel when compared to the results of the traditional structure-conduct-performance paradigm.