六次人普入户登记工作的问题与建议

第六次人口普查的入户登记工作早已结束。普查中仍存在居民参与意识不强、普查表填写困难、错报、重报、漏报等几个问题。解决问题的关键在于正视问题,在新的形势下不断思考,采用多角度、多层次的策略逐步缓解、解决问题。当前普查的重点是摸清人口数量,人普工作应以此为中心,严防漏报与重报。     

人口普查多报及重报估计

人口普查中不可避免发生多报,包括重报和其他普查多报。针对当今一些国家的政府统计部门在普查多报估计中只估计普查多报或重报的问题,提出构建普查多报估计量及重报估计量的研究目标。为实现目标,采用文献解读、现场调查和抽样估计相结合的方法研究普查多报人口及重报人口的认定标准、重报人口的统计口径、多报人口的估计方法与样本多报人口数目的关系、多报及重报估计量及其抽样方差估计量的建立。使用美国明尼苏达大学人口中心建立的人口普查微观数据库进行实证分析。研究表明,估计的总体普查多报率和重报率在适当范围内,普查登记质量较高;泰勒扩张法适合于普查多报率及重报率的抽样方差计算。通过研究得出如下结论:为全面了解普查登记中的多报问题,除单独估计重报外,还要估计总的普查多报;认为普查多报估计不重要的观点,不仅与现实情况不吻合,还会干扰政府统计部门的普查多报估计工作。     

思路一新天地宽——青岛市市北区破解『七人普』工作难题侧记

在全面推进第七次全国人口普查(以下简称"七人普")各阶段工作进程中,奋战在人口普查前沿的基层统计部门,大多都经历过"普查经费筹措难、'两员'培训管控难、普查登记入户难、海量数据处置难"等棘手问题.直面上述困扰,青岛市市北区人普办立足区情创新思路,突出问题导向攻坚克难,通过对人口普查工作的实践与探索,找出了一条"动中求变...     

上海市住房调查纪实

人口普查是获得准确人口资料的有效方法,住宅是人的生活的必要条件。在现代人口普查中,许多国家都同时进行住宅普查,因为这两种普查结合进行有许多方便之处。1955年至1964年期间,122个举行人口普查的国家中,有111个同时举行了住宅普查。 在第三次全国人口普查中,国务院人口普查领导小组确定,凡有条件的地区,经当地政府批准,可以结合人口普查进行住房调查。据此,我市在人口普查的同时,进行了住宅调查。     

中美关于人口普查组织方式的比较

美国从１７９０年开始开展人口普查，以后每隔十年进行一次，至今已２１０年了，而且中间从未间断过。其他欧洲国家，诸如英国、法国等，开展人口普查的时间也很早，但是，中间由于战争等原因的影响，有所间断。尽管世界上很多国家都进行人口普查，但是，在具体进行人口普查时的组织方式和进行普查的目的上都有很大的不同。 我国的人口普查从１９９０年起，开始确定每隔十年普查一次。我国每次普查的目的都有所不同，就以１９８２年和１９９０年的人口普查为例，当时的人口普查主要是为了了解我国人口的基本状况，为实现到本世纪末把人口控…     

全国性普查费用应如何负担

周期性普查是我国基本统计制度之一。每十年中进行的人口普查、三产普查、工业普查、农业普查及逢一、六年份进行的基本单位普查和1%人口抽查调查都是全国性普查，每项普查都是一个全国性的社会系统工程。而决定普查成败的基本条件之一是满足普查需要的经费支持，所以，经费问题是关系普查成败的关键环节，或称“瓶颈”问题。造成这种棘手问题的原因不外乎有以下几方面:第一，中央政府要数字，地方政府拿钱，权利与义务脱节。大凡全国性普查，都是由国家编制指标体系和实施方案，其数据均是满足最高决策之需要而设置的，如第五次人口普查正…     

要着力破解人口普查“八大难点”问题

我国开展的第六次全国人口普查是重大的国情国力调查。在实施人口普查的实践中,会遇到一些"难点"问题。不着力破解"难点"问题,就不能获得真实、全面、可靠的普查信息,使人口普查数据质量受到影响。     

浅论询问方式和技巧在人口调查中的重要作用

根据国家规定，我国每十年进行一次人口普查。每五年进行一次1％人口小普查，其他各年份都要进行人口变动情况抽样调查。人口普查和人口调查都是在国家统一规定的时间内，通过普查员和调查人员的入户访问、现场登记，对所辖地域内所有人口逐户逐人地进行一次性调查。     

人口普查业务制度设计的几点建议

搞好人口普查业务制度设计,是做好人口普查工作的前提和基础。文章针对第五次全国人口普查业务制度设计存在的问题,就流动人口登记的判断标准、登记人口与户籍人口的关系、普查标准时间和工作期限安排、普查项目设置等提出了建议。     

人口普查误差刍议

许多国家每次人口普查之后都要对其进行质量评估,计算人口普查误差,包括净误差及其构成部分（普查遗漏和普查错误计数）。通常采用先估计净误差,然后估计普查错误计数和普查遗漏。人口普查误差计算的关键是估计总体实际人口数。目前多数国家是使用基于捕获-再捕获模型和事后分层的双系统估计量估计实际人口数。最近1～2年美国提出使用基于罗吉斯蒂回归模型的双系统估计量估计实际人口数。研究结论表明：真正的人口普查误差其实是不能计算的;基于罗吉斯蒂回归模型的双系统估计量由于不受样本量限制而可以选择较多的事后分层变量,因而它优于基于事后分层的双系统估计量。     

Federal statistics in a complex environment: the case of the 1980 census

A discussion of the 1980 U.S. census is presented. The authors suggest that the taking of a national census is not just a statistical exercise, but an exercise involving ethics, epistemology, law, and politics. They contend that conducting a national census can be defined as an ill-structured problem in which the various complexities imposed by multidisciplinarity cannot be separated. "The 1980 census is discussed as an ill-structured problem, and a method for treating such problems is presented, within which statistical information is only one component."     

An improved estimator of omission rate for census count: With particular reference to India

ABSTRACT

Every large census operation should undergo evaluation programs to find the sources and extent of inherent coverage errors. In this article, we briefly discuss the statistical methodology to estimate the omission rate in Indian census using dual-system estimation (DSE) technique. We have explicitly studied the correlation bias factor involved in the estimate, its extent, and consequences. A new potential source of bias in the estimate is identified and discussed. During the survey, more efficient enumerators compared to the census operations are appointed, and this fact may inflate the dependency between two lists and lead to a significant bias. Some examples are given to demonstrate this argument in various plausible situations. We have suggested one simple and flexible approach which can control this bias. Our proposed estimator can efficiently overcome the potential bias by achieving the desired degree of accuracy (almost unbiased) with relatively higher efficiency. Overall improvements in the results are explored through simulation study on different populations.     

Federal Statistics in a Complex Environment: The Case of the 1980 Census

The taking and the interpretation of something as big and as complicated as the national census is more than an exercise in statistical thinking. It involves other diverse fields such as ethics, epistemology, law, and politics. This article shows that a national census is more akin to so-called ill-structured problems. Unlike well-structured problems, the formulation of an ill-structured problem varies from field to field and from person to person, and the various aspects of an ill-structured problem (i.e., ethics, epistemology, etc.) cannot be clearly separated from one another. The 1980 census is discussed as an ill-structured problem, and a method for treating such problems is presented, within which statistical information is only one component.     

基于行政记录人口普查方法的国际比较

开展基于行政记录的人口普查被视为有效破解传统人口普查难题的途径之一,亦是顺应大数据时代充分挖掘人口行政记录资源的必然之选。本文较系统地阐述了基于行政记录人口普查方法的基本框架,尝试对“完全模式”人口普查和“组合模式”人口普查的实施步骤进行解析。基于此,本文选择芬兰、奥地利、瑞士、荷兰四个国家,分普查基本情况、行政记录类型选择和基本记录库形成、已存在统计记录系统基本结构、专门组织的抽样调查设计、不同系统间的链接途径、新人口统计信息质量评估方法等六个维度,对实施基于行政记录的人口普查方法进行了国家比较。     

Reducing bias in ecological studies: an evaluation of different methodologies

Summary.  Statistical methods of ecological analysis that attempt to reduce ecological bias are empirically evaluated to determine in which circumstances each method might be practicable. The method that is most successful at reducing ecological bias is stratified ecological regression. It allows individual level covariate information to be incorporated into a stratified ecological analysis, as well as the combination of disease and risk factor information from two separate data sources, e.g. outcomes from a cancer registry and risk factor information from the census sample of anonymized records data set. The aggregated individual level model compares favourably with this model but has convergence problems. In addition, it is shown that the large areas that are covered by local authority districts seem to reduce between-area variability and may therefore not be as informative as conducting a ward level analysis. This has policy implications because access to ward level data is restricted.     

Censuses of population and housing in Africa: some issues and problems

"A census of population and housing, which contributes immensely to the development of social statistics and national statistical services in general, has been carried out at least once in every African country except Chad. The common issues and widespread practices of design, implementation, processing, and evaluation of this census are reviewed. Also reviewed are the problems that arise at each of these stages of conducting the census; problems arising as a result of the socio-economic and physical peculiarities of African conditions."     

普查经费投入的博弈分析

普查经费由中央政府和地方政府共同投入,因此两者的经费投入是相互影响的。本文试采用完全信息的静态博弈和完全信息的动态博弈来研究中央政府和地方政府的普查经费投入的问题。     

Bayesian analysis of a multiple-recapture model

In the Bayesian analysis of a multiple-recapture census, different diffuse prior distributions can lead to markedly different inferences about the population size N. Through consideration of the Fisher information matrix it is shown that the number of captures in each sample typically provides little information about N. This suggests that if there is no prior information about capture probabilities, then knowledge of just the sample sizes and not the number of recaptures should leave the distribution of Nunchanged. A prior model that has this property is identified and the posterior distribution is examined. In particular, asymptotic estimates of the posterior mean and variance are derived. Differences between Bayesian and classical point and interval estimators are illustrated through examples.     

Regional source apportionment of PM2.5 in Seoul using Bayesian multivariate receptor model

Seoul, the capital city of Korea with over 10 million residents, has been experiencing serious air pollution problems. Previous studies on source apportionment of PM2.5 in Seoul are based on measurements of chemical compositions of PM2.5 from a single monitoring site. In this paper, we analyse PM2.5 concentration data collected from multiple sites in 24 districts of Seoul and estimate regional source profiles using Bayesian multivariate receptor model. The regional source profiles provide information for the identification of major PM2.5 sources as well as the regions relatively more seriously affected by each source than other regions. These regional characteristics relevant to PM2.5 can help establish effective, customised, region-specific PM2.5 control strategies for each region rather than general strategies that apply to every region of Seoul.     

周期性普查数据质量评估方法与适用性研究

从普查数据准确性检验到普查数据误差测量,有关周期性普查数据质量的评估研究随着人们对普查数据生产过程的认识而不断发展与完善,先后发展出包括人口统计分析、数据一致性检验、行政记录审核和事后质量抽查等技术思路,包含多种具体的评估方法。根据评估依据与普查系统的关系,这些评估方法可被归纳为内部评估、外部评估以及事后抽查等三种评估途径。通过对每种评估方法特点及其适用性的分析,有利于进一步深化我国周期性普查数据质量评估的理论研究。