Quality of earnings: A key factor in financial planning

This paper presents the results of an empirical study based on the premise that, among companies with the same nominal earnings, those with higher quality of earnings will be more highly valued by investors. The price-earnings ratio should be higher for companies with better quality of earnings and lower for companies with poorer quality of earnings. The test is performed by estimating regression equations relating the price-earnings ratio to quality of earnings factors. The study should prove to be of significant value to financial decision-makers in formulating their long range plans.     

Earnings per share is a poor indicator of performance

One of the greatest dangers in corporate financial planning is failing to separate investment decision making from financial policy, because poor quality investments can appear to be desirable as a result of the particular financing vehicle employed. Management's focus of attention should not be rates of growth and earnings per share or return on net worth. Rather, the most important measure of corporate performance is the rate of return on total capital employed. The paper identifies the dangers of employing an earnings per share criterion for evaluating corporate performance, and suggests an alternative: focusing on a company's free cash flow, net operating profits after taxes minus the amount of new capital investment required in order to generate future profits. The author presents an analytical framework employing his free cash flow concept which can be applied to pricing and financing acquisitions.     

政府补贴、成长性和亏损公司定价

本文以Ohlson模型考察2002-2007年A股亏损公司定价问题。针对亏损公司盈余与权益价值负相关这一异常现象,我们通过将政府补贴、成长性、研发支出和负债融资信息引入定价模型,发现政府补贴、成长性和负债因素能够有效改善模型,消除了盈余与权益价值显著负相关的异常现象,改善了定价模型的效果。通过从规模和净利润两个维度对亏损公司的进一步分类,我们发现从净利润维度来看,政府向那些更容易通过非经常项目扭亏的公司提供了更多财政补贴,并且政府补贴与净利润为正公司的权益价值显著负相关,与净利润为负公司的权益价值不存在显著相关关系;从规模维度来看,上述现象在小公司样本更加明显。     

管理层股权激励与企业未来盈余定价——来自中国资本市场的证据

本文探讨管理层股权激励对企业未来盈余定价的影响,并进一步将企业未来盈余分解为行业成分和公司特质成分,考察股权激励对不同成分未来盈余定价的影响,以及不同模式股权激励对上述关系影响的差异。利用实施股权激励的中国A股上市公司2006-2016年间的数据,本文发现：（1）股权激励提高了当期股票收益率与企业未来盈余的相关性。说明管理层股权激励有助于投资者对企业未来盈余定价;（2）管理层股权激励并不影响投资者对行业成分未来盈余定价,但会加速投资者对公司特质未来盈余定价;（3）管理层的股票型激励有助于投资者对企业未来盈余定价,同时也能加速投资者对公司特质未来盈余定价,但股票期权激励并无上述作用。研究结果意味着,整体而言股权激励能够缓解管理层与股东之间信息披露的代理问题,激励管理层向外部投资者披露更多高质量的公司基本面信息,从而降低投资者对公司特质未来盈余信息的搜寻成本,最终通过加速公司特质未来盈余信息融入股价来促进投资者对企业未来盈余定价。本文揭示了管理层股权激励促进投资者对企业未来盈余定价的微观机制,同时,研究结论对提高中国证券市场的信息效率提供了重要的理论参考。     

ON THE COST OF NEW ISSUES OF COMMON STOCK: AN AMENDMENT TO THE CONSTANT GROWTH MODEL

Expansion decisions by corporate managements are importantly influenced by their perceptions of the firm's cost of capital and especially the cost of common equity. Their decision making is then influenced by the common perception that new issues of common stock are more costly than retained earnings because of the flotation costs inherent in new issues. Thus a rate of expansion that requires new issues is downgraded in decision making. In this paper the authors show that in actuality new issues of common equity may be less costly than retained earnings. Thus different decision-making implications are clearly involved.     

股权收购(Buyouts)的债务估值和违约决策

杠杆收购是股权收购交易的主要形式,所以对于股权收购而言,债权和股权的价值估算至关重要。但一方面鉴于股权收购交易所需的大量资金,股权收购主要采用分层债务结构进行债务融资,另一方面囿于收购的目标公司具有显著的特质风险,传统的Leland模型无法对这类债务和股权进行定价。为此,本文基于股权收购的多层融资结构,构建数理模型研究了股权收购交易的债权和股权的定价方法,并分析了最优破产决策和违约概率。基于实证参数值,模型预测的股东内部收益率和违约概率与实证结论十分接近。当标的资产价值下降时,目标公司的杠杆比率快速提升,优先级较低的债务迅速贬值,从而解释了投资者抢购安全资产的动机。通过对比分析,本文发现采用单层融资结构会提高融资成本,使得股权受损,这为分层债务结构提供了理论依据。最后,本文比较静态分析了标的资产波动率和市场利率对估值和破产决策的影响,结论支持了实证研究中有关市场利率与股权收购相关性的结论。     

我国上市公司盈余管理行为的实证分析

我国证券市场存在较为严重的盈余管理现象.针对该现象,本文从盈余管理动机出发,分析我国上市公司盈余管理的行为特征.本文采用管理后盈余分布法,研究了我国上市公司2001年至2003年净资产收益率(ROE)的分布特征,发现我国上市公司仍然存在很强的盈余管理动机,而且我国上市公司盈余管理的行为受到政府监管的影响.最后,本文在实证研究的基础上提出了治理盈余管理的几点建议.     

The Effect of Earnings‐Based Metrics on Vertical Efficiency

The tendency to rely on accounting earnings as the primary metric of corporate performance has been subject to criticism in recent times. A key concern is that earnings misrepresent changes in value in that cash outlays occur upfront but expenses are recognized only over time. While recognized expenses indeed add up to the initial cash outflow, the equality holds only in undiscounted (nominal), not discounted (real), terms. Accordingly, corporate earnings figures suffer from a form of money illusion. In this paper, we demonstrate that such money illusion can have an upside when it is present in vertical relationships subject to self‐interest. In particular, a buyer who focuses on earnings has incentives to increase purchases since it does not immediately encounter the full cost of cash outflows. These added incentives can promote more efficient trade. We also show that the increased incentives to buy can also lead to Pareto improvements by spurring the supplier to invest more in developing technology. Finally, we demonstrate that judiciously chosen inventory valuation rules can lead to efficient supply chain outcomes. Thus, efficiency can be achieved when supply chain parties freely trade and regulators specify only the accounting rules under which they operate.     

A Valuation Based Analysis of the Spanish Accounting Reforms

This paper contrasts the association between security prices and accounting information before and after the Spanish accounting reforms. Spanish regulations were changed during 1989 and 1990 so as to conform with EU requirements, bringing them broadly into line with international standards, although the new system still focuses on compliance with rules rather than reflecting the substance of economic transactions. We model security price as a function of two fundamental accounting variables -- book value of equity per share and earnings per share. The model is estimated using a sample drawn from non-financial companies listed on the Madrid Stock Exchange during the period 1986--1995. Whilst the results demonstrate only a modest improvement in value relevance of accounting information following the reform, they show that the influence of the earnings variable becomes somewhat smaller whilst that on equity is increased. This is consistent with earnings containing a larger proportion of transitory elements following the reform, whilst the equity value appears to have more economic relevance than previously.     

Strategic planning could improve your share price

From a financial point of view the long-term ultimate goal of the firm is to maximize its stock price. A high P/E multiple keeps existing stockholders satisfied, reduces the chances that a corporate pirate will attempt to raid the company, and also facilitates the company's own acquisitions.Therefore, financial managers are especially interested in answers to the questions of if and how strategic planning can help to improve the price-earnings multiple. The results of the study summarized in this article answer the first question in the affirmative and give at least a partial answer to the second. Contrary to the conclusion of some other recent studies, this study finds a definite long-term financial payoff from strategic planning. Furthermore, it suggests that strategic planning may be more effective if it is conducted at the corporate rather than solely at the division level.If maximization of stock price is a corporate goal, delegation of strategic planning entirely to the division level may result in a high cost to stockholders.     

股权制衡与公司价值创造能力“倒U型”假说检验——基于面板数据模型的实证

现代公司治理理论认为股权制衡与股权控制对公司价值创造能力能够产生显著影响,然而就影响范式、影响效果等问题的研究尚未达成一致结论。基于部分线性非平衡面板数据模型,本文对此进行了再研究,讨论了股权制衡度对公司价值创造能力的不同影响范式：线性与非线性,并给出优选方案。最后,对我国A股214家上市公司2000年-2011年共6674个样本数据进行了实证研究,结果表明：股权制衡度对公司价值创造能力呈现非线性影响模式,表现出“倒U型”变动规律,并且其他因素的影响会改变最优的股权制衡度,这为进一步寻找最优股权制衡规模的主要影响因素提供了理论依据和实施有效的公司治理提供了决策参考。     

Rethinking the Corporate Financial–Social Performance Relationship: Examining the Complex,Multistakeholder Notion of Corporate Social Performance

The corporate financial performance (CFP)–corporate social performance (CSP) relationship has been investigated many times over the past few decades, yet the notion of CSP has generally been understood to be a single, monolithic aspect of corporate strategy. This article examines the common CFP–CSP understanding in three distinct ways: (1) by extending the evaluation of CSP as a complex, multistakeholder notion; (2) by analyzing CSP's relationship with the firm's financial performance at a given point in time as a lead (independent) variable in the relationship and as a lag (dependent) variable in the relationship; and (3) for both positive and negative stakeholder relationships. The results indicate that the employee emerges as the stakeholder group most strongly linked to CFP, followed by the consumer stakeholder. The natural environment and the community stakeholder group are minimally associated with CFP. General support is found for a CFP–CSP relationship at a given point in time, with some support found for CSP as a lead (independent) variable. When used as a measure of financial performance, return on assets is more often correlated with CSP than is return on equity. These results and their implications are discussed.     

基于复杂网络理论的股票指标关联性实证分析

复杂网络理论是研究股票市场内在结构和功能的有力工具,股票指标的关联性已成为研究股票市场的一个新视角。基于复杂网络理论对深沪300指数(2011年7月28至2012年2月28)构建网络拓扑结构。利用DFA进行数据筛选,计算筛选后数据的股票指标的绝对相关系数。根据股票指标的绝对相关系数概率分布确定阈值,构建网络拓扑结构,计算股票指标的网络统计特征指标,分析收益率、成交量、市盈率的网络结构。研究结果表明,股票收益率和成交量指标的具有较强的关联性,具有小世界性质;市盈率指标具有较弱的关联性,不具有小世界性质,是随机网络且受外界影响较大、效率低下,风险比较大。     

资本结构治理效应:中国上市公司的实证研究

资本结构影响公司治理的结果最终会体现在公司绩效的变化上。本文通过对1992-2004年间我国上市公司资本结构影响公司绩效的实证分析发现:资产主营业务净利润率、经营费用率和资产利用率三个指标比股票价值能更好地解释资本结构对公司绩效的影响;国家股比例对公司绩效的负向影响越来越不显著;法人股比例和负债融资比例对公司绩效有不显著的正向影响等。这些结论表明,完善资本结构是完善我国上市公司治理结构从而提高公司绩效的重要途径之一。     

A COMMENT ON THE COST OF NEW ISSUES OF COMMON STOCK

According to the constant growth model and perceived finance theory, the cost of new external equity exceeds the cost of retained earnings due to flotation costs and underpricing. Carlson and Dietz [1] have recently argued that the constant growth model is operationally inadequate whenever the net proceeds from the issuance of a new share differ from book value. Specifically, they contend that the cost of new external equity is less than the cost of retained earnings whenever the net proceeds from a new share exceed book value. We show that these conclusions stem from an error in interpretation and therefore that the constant growth model is valid regardless of the relationship between market prices and book value.     

Setting corporate objectives

This paper states that ‘the resources are raw materials, people and capital. The private sector company can survive as such only by using all three resources efficiently’.These statements summarize the need not only for the setting of Corporate Objectives but the cogent and incontrovertible argument for such objectives being financial.Let no one doubt the painful process that is involved in determining the right objectives for the corporate entity or, indeed, for any entity which seeks to survive and continue.This is why the process of setting, accepting and working towards objectives has to start from the top but must continue throughout the whole organization. Who am I and where am I going?—is a question that is as valid for the Company as it is for the individual.The corporate objective of the Fisons Group is consistently to achieve profitable growth in real terms by increasing earnings per share and raising the return on capital employed.I hope you find this paper as constructive to you as it has been to me and my colleagues.     

机构投资者持股对信息披露的治理作用研究——以管理层盈余预告为例

本文以我国A股上市公司2004-2007年盈余预告披露数据为例,实证检验了机构投资者对信息披露的治理作用。结果发现:(1)随着机构投资者持股比例的增加,管理层采取的盈余预告精确性提高(更具体的形式和更小的误差),及时性也增强;(2)银行、财务公司类机构、一般基金类机构对管理层盈余预告选择的积极治理作用相对较强,而养老、保险类机构对管理层盈余预告选择的积极治理作用则相对较弱;(3)处于不同持股规模时,管理层盈余预告的精确性、及时性均随着机构投资者整体持股比例增大而提高。但是,机构投资者持股比例的提高易导致了管理层盈余预告的乐观态度倾向;(4)股权分置改革后,机构投资者持股对管理层盈余预告披露选择的积极治理作用比股权分置改革前有所增强。建议大力发展机构投资者规模和专业素质以优化投资者结构,促进我国资本市场的健康发展。     

The learning organization and its dimensions as key factors in firms' performance

Managerial responses to the Dimensions of the Learning Organization Questionnaire^© together with both perceptual and objective measures of firms' financial performance were analysed. Multiple regression equations were developed to examine the relationship between overall learning organization score and the performance variables return on investment (ROI), return on equity (ROE), earnings per share (EPS), net income per employee and percentage of sales from new products. The results of the study suggest that there is a positive relationship between learning organization behaviours and business performance.     

盈余质量对资本配置效率的影响及作用机理

本文以2004-2007年沪深两市的上市公司为研究样本,在Richardson、verdi研究的基础上,对中国现实制度背景下盈余质量和资本配置效率两者的关系进行了探讨.不同于国内外的现有研究,本文不仅检验了盈余质量是否影响上市公司的资本配置效率,还对盈余质量如何影响上市公司资本配置效率进行了检验.检验结果表明,盈余质量的改善一方面能直接提高上市公司的资本配置效率,另一方面则能够通过降低代理成本间接促进上市公司资本配置效率的提高.这一研究结论对理解盈余质量在上市公司资本配置效率中的作用,以及了解盈余质量与上市公司资本配置效率之间的中介传导机制和路径模式均具有较强的现实意义.     

中国公司债利差的构成及影响因素实证分析

文章研究了公司债与国债的利差及利差变化的影响因素.研究发现税后利差在公司债市场初始阶段和金融危机时期为负.时间序列回归分析结果显示:公司债利差与无风险利率水平、利率期限结构斜率、公司杠杆比率的变化方向相反,而与股票收益波动率变化方向相同;公司债利差的变化主要受利率水平变化、换手率变化、零交易天数比率变化的影响,并且与他们的方向相反.横截面回归分析结果表明:信用评级越高、利差越小;剩余期限越长,利差也越小.