社会信任与分析师盈余预测

本文理论分析并实证检验社会信任对分析师盈余预测的影响及其作用机制。以中国2007—2018年A股非金融上市公司为研究样本,结果发现,社会信任能显著提升分析师盈余预测的准确性并降低预测分歧度;社会信任对分析师盈余预测的改善作用主要存在于法律环境较好的地区和市场竞争程度更低的行业。进一步检验发现,社会信任显著提高了企业的会计信息透明度并增强了企业盈余稳定性,且两者均具有重要的中介效应,表明提高信息披露质量是社会信任影响分析师盈余预测的具体作用路径。本文从社会信任的视角为分析师盈余预测的影响因素提供了新证据,丰富和拓展了有关社会信任经济后果的研究,对于在推进法治建设的同时加强培育优良的社会信任环境以促进资本市场高质量发展具有重要的现实意义。     

管理层业绩预告有助于分析师盈余预测修正吗

本文从分析师盈余预测修正的角度,考察了管理层业绩预告发布后短窗口内分析师预测行为的变化。无论是基于公司层面还是分析师层面样本的研究均表明,业绩预告发布后,分析师盈余预测修正与业绩预告消息显著正相关;并且,当业绩预告为好消息、点估计形式以及可靠性高时,分析师盈余预测修正幅度与业绩预告消息的正相关关系更显著。拓展性检验还发现,管理层业绩预告有助于降低分析师盈余预测的误差,即分析师预测是朝着更准确的方向进行修正。上述证据表明,管理层业绩预告为市场参与者提供了额外的有关公司预期盈余的信息,分析师可以据此形成更为准确的盈余预测,进而降低资本市场信息不对称。     

公平信息披露影响证券分析师盈余预测分歧度的评述

证券分析师在现代资本市场中扮演着会计信息使用者和提供者的双重角色,他们的行为对中小投资者和资本市场的效率都有着重要的影响。本文简要回国了国内外关于公平信息披露影响证券分析师盈余预测分歧度的研究成果,并按不同的研究内容和视角进行了总结和评述。在此基础上,提出我国在该领域的研究方向。     

差错责任追究制度与管理层盈余预测精度

年报信息重大差错责任追究制度是中国证监会力推的重要公司治理机制,对公司信息披露行为产生重大影响,但对差错责任追究制度能否引发公司信息披露的策略性选择行为从而造成非预期后果却鲜有研究。管理层盈余预测具有的重要性和灵活性是研究公司信息披露策略性选择行为的良好情景,因此,研究建立差错责任追究制度的公司是否为了规避错报带来的惩罚而策略性选择管理层盈余预测精度,以期更好地认识差错责任追究制度对公司信息披露行为产生的非预期后果,具有重要的理论意义和实践意义。以2006年至2017年中国A股上市公司为样本,采用双重差分模型检验差错责任追究制度对管理层盈余预测精度的影响以及该制度特征的增量效应,进行一系列稳健性检验以增加研究结果的可靠性。从公司成长性、高管性别和机构持股3个角度进行横截面检验,以探讨差错责任追究制度对管理层盈余预测精度的作用机理。从分析师盈余预测行为角度考察差错责任追究制度造成管理层盈余预测精度的策略性选择究竟如何影响公司信息环境。研究结果表明,公司建立差错责任追究制度后管理层盈余预测精度显著下降,并且界定错报标准的差错责任追究制度对管理层盈余预测精度的降低作用更大;差错责任追究制度对...     

预测信息披露与盈余管理

本文从信息披露的角度出发,通过一个委托-代理模型分析预测信息的披露与盈余管理的关系。我们的分析认为,由于我国上市公司管理层披露的预测信息在一定程度上减少了管理层与投资者间的信息不对称程度,且管理层故意错误地披露预测信息需要承担额外的成本。因此,在一定的条件下,管理层披露预测信息将有利于减少管理层盈余管理行为。相关的实证研究数据也证实了我们的结论。     

数据资产信息披露与分析师盈余预测关系研究——基于文本分析的经验证据

在大智移云时代,由于数据已成为市场竞争的关键要素,企业对数据资产的运用日益普遍。本文通过运用Word2Vec神经网络模型构建文本词典以挖掘年报中的文本信息,对企业数据资产信息披露影响分析师盈余预测进行了实证研究,发现：1)个股年度报告中的数据资产信息披露频率越高,预测该个股次年每股收益(EPS)的分析师报告越多,且对每股收益的预测偏误越低,说明分析师对数据资产信息有所关注,且数据资产信息披露能够显著改善分析师预测的准确度;2)数据资产信息披露能够通过提供前瞻性信息和改善个股信息透明度来提高分析师预测的准确度;3)个股年度报告的可读性较高,或者市场处于牛市状态时,数据资产信息披露频率的增加,更能够提高分析师预测的准确度。研究结论对完善企业信息披露行为、促进分析师更好地发挥信息中介作用具有重要意义。     

独立董事与上市公司盈余信息质量

独立董事是现代公司治理机制设计中的一个重要组成部分,目的在于减少公司的代理成本、保护中小投资者,同时提高董事会的决策能力。独立董事是否能够发挥监督和咨询作用,取决于两个方面:一是独立董事是否有能力独立;二是独立董事能否有效履职。这两个方面可以具体化为独立董事的专业背景、在董事会的占比、独立董事报酬和参会次数。本项工作考查了独立董事与上市公司盈余信息质量之间的关系,以盈余管理程度、深交所信息披露评级、盈余激进度和盈余稳健度的4个指标衡量上市公司盈余信息质量。我们发现,董事会中具有财务或会计背景的独立董事、在董事会中独立董事占比较高,上市公司盈余信息质量较好。独立董事参会次数越多,代表公司问题较多,相应地公司的盈余信息质量则较低。但是,我们没有发现独立董事报酬与公司盈余信息质量之间有显著关系。     

新会计准则下财务分析师盈利预测与盈余管理实证研究

随着我国经济的不断发展和市场竞争的不断加剧,国家对于经济体制改革也在不断的深化,2006年一月,国家开始实行新的会计准则,这给财务管理工作带来了新的挑战。另一方面,企业之间的竞争不断加剧,各企业间的扩大,兼并,合作等等经济活动也愈加频繁,而其中的每一个环节都要涉及到资金流动,利益收入等财务问题,因此一个企业要想健康稳定的发展,必然离不开财务管理制度,而且随着企业制度的不断完善,财务分析师的重要性日益凸显,可以毫不夸张的说,财务分析师对于盈利的预测以及盈余的管理,是决定企业成败的关键因素。就目前的情况来看,我国的财务分析这一领域还存在一定的问题,很容易导致财务风险的产生。本文就问题产生的原因进行了分析,并提出了一些做好财务分析工作的一些建议。     

信息优势还是利益冲突:关联分析师盈余预测行为研究——基于股权质押的经验证据北大核心CSSCI

本文将因隶属券商开展股权质押业务与上市公司形成关联关系的分析师(分析师-券商-股权质押公司)界定为关联分析师,并在此基础上系统地考察关联分析师的盈余预测行为。研究发现,关联分析师的盈余预测偏差更大、精度更低,这一盈余预测行为并未因信息优势和其他关联关系剔除而改善,且与股权质押类型、融资资金去向无关,表明关联分析师因利益冲突发布了乐观性盈余预测报告,研究结论支持利益冲突假说。而且,关联分析师的利益冲突行为在股权质押率高、券商风险管理能力较差时更为突出。股权质押影响关联分析师利益冲突的作用路径是分析师私有信息获取和券商业务拓展需求,导致关联分析师与股权质押公司、隶属券商间的双重利益冲突。本文从质押权人视角丰富了股权质押经济后果研究文献,研究结论有助于增进分析师盈余预测行为的理解。     

Divide and rule: The effects of diversity and network structure on a firm's sustainability performance

To tackle sustainability, firms often use partnerships with organizations from different industries or societal sectors such as government and civil society. While partnerships show potential for firms to improve their sustainability performance, they not only lead to a potential to learn from diversity but also to tensions due to a lack of unity between partners. In partnerships for sustainability, this unity-diversity tension particularly manifests itself in different views of sustainability. This paper examines how this tension affects the sustainability performance of firms taking part in partnerships for sustainability in developing countries. To address this question, this tension is conceptualized as being the result of differences in organizational frames and institutional logics between a focal firm and other organizations in the partnership. It is also taken into consideration that firms are embedded in an overarching, relational network structure that allows them to manage the diversity in frames and logics. To test the hypotheses, the study analyses 1353 greenhouse gas emission reduction projects of 322 firms from developing countries active in the carbon-offset market from 2007 to 2009. The findings show that if partners hold different frames and belong to different sectors, a firm's sustainability performance improves first due to learning from diversity but after a turning point decreases from a lack of unity. This inverse U-shape relationship is flipped if a firm occupies a brokerage position in its network.     

Increasing women's contribution on board decision making: The importance of chairperson leadership efficacy and board openness

In the last decade, the number of women on corporate boards has increased slightly, but the prevailing minority status of women directors implies that they will continue to face social barriers. While prior research has largely focused on explaining social barriers (e.g., being categorized as an out-group member) to increase diversity and its negative consequences, how boards can avoid these obstacles remains unclear. Stemming from recategorization theory, we examine whether and to what extent board chairperson leadership efficacy and board openness (as mechanisms to avoid out-group bias) enhance the influence of women when they are in the minority in board decision-making. In a sample of 146 Norwegian firms, we found a positive relationship between women minorities and women directors’ contribution to board decision-making. Moreover, we found that this positive impact increases when the board chairperson exercises leadership and the board operates in an atmosphere of openness.     

大股东控制、集团内部资本市场运作与公司现金持有

本文以我国上市公司高额现金持有和企业集团迅猛发展为背景,从融资约束与代理冲突两个维度,考察了集团内部资本市场运作对成员企业现金持有量的影响,以及在不同内部治理环境下两者对现金持有量所呈现出的迥异的作用机理。以A股上市公司2007-2010年的数据为样本,本研究发现：（1）集团内部资本市场运作通过融资约束与代理冲突这两条路径影响成员企业的现金持有量。综合来看,集团成员企业的现金持有量高于独立企业。（2）在不同的内部治理环境下,预防性动机与代理动机对现金持有量影响程度的大小也不同。当代理问题较严重时,代理动机导致的现金增持程度大于预防动机减弱导致的现金减持程度,从而表现为与独立企业相比具有较高的现金持有量。（3）代理问题较严重的集团成员企业所拥有的实际现金持有量向目标现金持有量的调整速度较慢,调整半周期较长。上述研究结论丰富了委托代理理论与公司财务理论的相关研究成果,并且从集团内部资本市场运作的视角提供了治理机制如何影响公司财务决策的新证据。     

"I am stuck in meetings": Understanding the relation of CEO time management with TMT size and gender diversity

Time is a scarce resource, especially at the apex of firms. CEOs’ time management became a hot topic in recent academic and practice-oriented literature, which stressed the fact that CEOs are usually stuck in meetings. In this paper, I advance the nascent literature on the CEOs’ time management by focusing on the time the CEOs spend in meetings and on their choice of scheduling group meetings instead of bilateral meetings. Doing so, I study the relation of the CEOs’ time management with their top management team’s (TMT’s) size and gender diversity. Empirical analyses over a sample of 170 CEOs revealed a positive and significant relation between the size of the TMT and the time the CEOs spend in meetings with the top executives belonging to the TMT, while no significant relation emerged between the TMT’s gender diversity and the CEOs’ time in meetings. Conversely, while the TMT’s size does not significantly relate to the amount of time the CEOs spend in group meetings, a U-shaped relation emerged with the TMT’s gender diversity: the time spent in group meetings is higher when the TMT is homogeneous in gender, while CEOs prefer bilateral meetings when the TMT is heterogeneous.     

基于信任和企业进入退出机制的产业集群规模演化研究

本文从信任演化的角度出发,以产业集群规模为研究对象,建立了基于信任和企业进入退出机制的演化模型,并利用计算机辅助语言,研究不同进入壁垒的集群规模演化的规律。结果发现,由于信任机制和进入壁垒对集群企业竞争与合作的调节作用,集群规模的演化呈现一定的规律性,演化过程可区分为生长、淘汰、震荡和稳定四个阶段,演化曲线呈倒"S"型,稳定成熟期规模的大小与进入壁垒的高低有关,且进入壁垒对企业进入和生存作用相反。     

How dimensions of internationalization shape the MNE's renewal capability: Multidimensional and multilevel considerations

We investigate the theoretical and empirical implications of internationalization as a multidimensional and multilevel construct and its relationship to the renewal capability of the firm. Theoretically, internationalization describes a diverse range of cross-border activities by the multinational enterprise (MNE), and thus carries with it multiple dimensions of depth, breadth, and speed. Empirically, internationalization contains both within- and between-MNE variance, each with potentially different effects on the MNE's renewal capability. Using a unique, longitudinal dataset of 94 MNEs, we find support that each dimension and level of internationalization relates differently to the renewal capability of the MNE. At the within-level, the MNE internationalization breadth is negatively related to the its renewal capability, yet internationalization speed is positively related to renewal. At the between-level, the depth of internationalization is positively related to the MNE's renewal capability. In concert, our results suggest that the effects of internationalization on important outcomes cannot be simplified into general relationships. Rather, attention to the nuances of internationalization, especially as related to the MNE's capabilities, is needed.     

Product Positioning Using a Self‐Organizing Map and the Rings of Influence

In this article, we propose a new product positioning method based on the neural network methodology of a self‐organizing map. The method incorporates the concept of rings of influence, where a firm evaluates individual consumers and decides on the intensity to pursue a consumer, based on the probability that this consumer will purchase a competing product. The method has several advantages over earlier work. First, no limitations are imposed on the number of competing products and second, the method can position multiple products in multiple market segments. Using simulations, we compare the new product positioning method with a quasi‐Newton method and find that the new method always approaches the best solution obtained by the quasi‐Newton method. The quasi‐Newton method, however, is dependent on the initial positions of the new products, with the majority of cases ending in a local optimum. Furthermore, the computational time required by the quasi‐Newton method increases exponentially, while the time required by the new method is small and remains almost unchanged, when the number of new products positioned increases. We also compute the expected utility that a firm will provide consumers by offering its products. We show that as the intensity with which a firm pursues consumers increases, the new method results in near‐optimal solutions in terms of market share, but with higher expected utility provided to consumers when compared to that obtained by a quasi‐Newton method. Thus, the new method can serve as a managerial decision‐making tool to compare the short‐term market share objective with the long‐term expected utility that a firm will provide to consumers, when it positions its products and intensifies its effort to attract consumers away from competition.     

Uncertainty,pluralism, and the knowledge-based theory of the firm: From J.-C. Spender’s contribution to a socio-cognitive approach

J.-C. Spender’s award-winning, knowledge-based theory of the firm is based on four premises: (1) The firm can be sufficiently understood as a system of knowledge, (2) explicit and implicit knowing can be clearly dissociated, (3) organizations are conceived as cognizing entities, and (4) intuition shaped by shared cultural practices is a superior source of managerial knowledge. This line of reasoning represents a social constructionist view of the enactment, transfer, and storage of knowledge according to which managerial knowledge is largely tacitly shaped by industry recipes and the firm’s socio-cultural conventions and other social processes. Although comprehensive in scope, we argue that a knowledge-based theory of the firm needs to integrate a cognitivist approach that includes the synergetic production of tacit and explicit knowledge, the role of reflective thinking in resolving strategic uncertainties, and the interaction between the individual and the social. This socio-cognitive theory of the firm posits that sustained competitive advantage of a firm is founded on the ability to align knowledge internally within the firm as well as externally with its stakeholders through the individual sense-making of feedback from other individuals.     

Stochastic Algorithms,Symmetric Markov Perfect Equilibrium,and the ‘curse’ of Dimensionality

This paper introduces a stochastic algorithm for computing symmetric Markov perfect equilibria. The algorithm computes equilibrium policy and value functions, and generates a transition kernel for the (stochastic) evolution of the state of the system. It has two features that together imply that it need not be subject to the curse of dimensionality. First, the integral that determines continuation values is never calculated; rather it is approximated by a simple average of returns from past outcomes of the algorithm, an approximation whose computational burden is not tied to the dimension of the state space. Second, iterations of the algorithm update value and policy functions at a single (rather than at all possible) points in the state space. Random draws from a distribution set by the updated policies determine the location of the next iteration's updates. This selection only repeatedly hits the recurrent class of points, a subset whose cardinality is not directly tied to that of the state space. Numerical results for industrial organization problems show that our algorithm can increase speed and decrease memory requirements by several orders of magnitude.