基于订单持续期的投资者订单提交策略研究

运用ACD模型,采用2003年12月深成指43只成份股共计1 825 415条的逐笔委托记录,通过对订单持续期的实证检验分析了中国证券市场投资者的订单提交策略,研究发现:1)价差假说、深度假说、波动性假说、交易强度假说、信息透明度假说和订单积极性假说被证实,说明市场微观特性、市场状况、信息和订单提交者成交愿望等都影响投资者的订单提交策略;2)涨跌假说得到支持,说明股票价格涨跌影响该股票的订单持续期;撤单是机构投资者制定订单提交策略的重要手段.     

顾客可能取消订单的MTO企业订单定价策略

研究了顾客下订单后可能取消订单的按订单生产型企业的定价策略。顾客到达后向企业询问订单报价,如果价格合适,顾客将下订单,否则选择离开。引入了顾客接受概率模型,以最大化订单期望利润为目标,得出了订单最优定价和最大期望利润。通过分析最优定价和最大期望利润对于各参数的敏感性得出:最优定价是系统积压订单数的增函数,是订单取消概率和取消订单赔偿比例的减函数;而最大期望利润是系统积压订单数的减函数,是取消订单赔偿比例的增函数。通过数值分析发现,在顾客确实可能取消订单的背景下,如果决策者在对订单进行定价时不考虑这一可能性,将会减小企业获得的最大期望利润。     

基于EMSR方法的订单接受策略研究

选择性的订单接受策略对于按订单生产的制造型企业具有重要意义。本文在单一资源的情况下,采用收益管理中常用的期望边际座位收益EMSR-a和EMSR-b方法,分别得出了利润最大化的订单接受策略。然后,把这两种策略运用到一个算例,与FCFS策略进行比较。数据结果显示在企业利润方面,这两种策略都明显优于FCFS,利润均提高20%以上。     

考虑顾客个性化需求基于MTO生产策略供应链整体设计决策模型

结合MTO(maketoorder)型供应链运作的特点,本文利用MRPⅡ中的物料单(BOM:billofmaterial)工具,在考虑顾客个性化需求的基础上建立了以供应链联盟整体收益最大化为目标的供应链整体设计决策模型。通过该模型面对市场需求多样化的供应链联盟可更好的满足当今顾客个性化生产需求,在一定程度上实现大规模低成本个性化生产的目标。     

爱尔朗型按订单装配系统最优生产——库存控制策略研究

本文研究具有复杂装配结构的爱尔朗型按订单装配(ATO)系统的组件生产与库存优化控制问题。系统涉及多种组件,一个最终产品和多类客户需求。在此系统中,各种组件的生产时间服从爱尔朗分布,各类客户的需求为泊松到达过程。针对不同客户需求类型:产品需求与独立组件需求且同为销售损失型,建立基于马尔可夫决策过程(MDP)的平均总成本模型,应用动态规划方法求解最优策略。仿真模拟方法实现最优策略,并通过数值实验分析多生产阶段和系统参数对最优策略的影响。研究结果表明,爱尔朗型生产时间ATO系统的最优策略为状态依赖型策略,即组件的生产与库存分配由动态基础库存水平值和动态库存配给水平值控制。对于任一组件,其基础库存水平值和库存配给水平值均随着生产阶段的增加而降低,且生产阶段对基础库存水平值和平均总成本的影响较显著。     

社会分层在学生管理中的应对策略

社会分层是指根据不同的社会标准把人们划分为若干等级层次。作为学生,按社会分层理论的标准衡量,他属于职业标准下在学校求学的社会成员。大多数学生为未成年人,探讨学生管理应基于研究学生家长的社会分层。学生家长社会分层对学生管理影响最重要的标准有职业和财富。学生管理要因人而异,因人制宜。主要是多与家长沟通,建立完善的家庭档案;分配给学生不同的社会工作,做好角色分配;注重心理疏导,培养健康的人格;建设优良班风,倡导社会公平。     

订单履行系统目标与集成策略

高效实施订单履行流程(Order Fulfillment Process,OFP)是提升企业竞争力的有效手段.本文首先从供应链管理意义上界定OFP范畴,分析并建立了基于客户角度对OFP的期望和基于企业角度的OFP功能需求,指出仅通过单项企业管理系统难以单独实现OFP.随后,提出高效实施OFP的订单履行系统必须实现的4个目标:平台开放性、订单快速响应性、订单可视性和计划鲁棒性.最后,针对订单履行系统4个目标探讨集成方案与实现的关键技术,为企业部署订单履行系统提供借鉴.     

银行风险控制下的供应链订单融资策略研究

本文研究了银行风险上限控制下,供应链订单融资模式的最优运作策略,分析了银行风险上限对供应商和零售商最优决策的影响。研究表明银行风险上限等价于银行贷款上限,且随着零售商预订量的增加,银行设置的贷款上限会提高;通过银行上调风险上限或零售商提高预订量,供应商可以实现经典最优生产量;零售商提供预订订单来自于两种动机,即增加销售动机和增加贷款动机,在一定条件下这两种动机可以相互转化。最后,通过数值分析验证了文章的结论。研究结论能为银行设计合适的订单融资产品以及企业选择合适的银行申请订单融资服务提供指导。     

Make-to-Order 模式下多产品占线生产策略研究

本文研究的是按订单生产模式企业面对需求不确定条件下的生产决策问题.这类企业经常会遇到如下情形:客户的产品订单需求变动具有不可预期性,同时生产单批产品的固定成本较高,企业在承担一定的延期惩罚费用的条件下可以延期交货.因此需要考虑采用某种适当的生产策略来减少成本损失,即需要研究在未来产品订单需求不确定的条件下确定在什么时间对哪个产品进行生产使得总的固定生产成本及延期惩罚成本最优的决策问题.以往的研究一般都是假设包括订单到达时刻和订单需求量等需求信息是随机波动的,而实际情况中这些信息常常是不可预测且不能用概率分布刻画的.因此,本文从占线理论出发考虑了未来订单需求信息未知情形下的最优生产决策问题,构造了相应的数学模型,设计了一个竞争策略,证明了其具有较好的常数竞争比.数值分析进一步验证了该策略的有效性.     

民办高校办学准入立法现状研究

我国民办高等教育从21世纪80年代以来已有了长足的发展。为规范其发展,国家制定了包括《民办教育促进法》及其实施条例在内的多项法律法规,地方政府也在实践中进行了有益的探索。江西省是民办高等教育发展较好的省份之一,但是仍然存在发展中的制度供给不足,本文从民办高校的现行准入制度角度进行分析,以期有所裨益。     

二分群体决策规则的序性质研究

Karotkin等发现二分群体决策的加权多数决策规则集具有序性质,但未能解释其原因.文章提出了规则链和规则距离函数的概念,指出当一组决策规则构成规则链时这组规则便具有序性质,从而解释了这一现象.而判断一组规则是否构成规则链则可以通过计算各规则间的规则距离来实现.随后通过对具体实例的分析进一步阐述了得到的结论.     

An integrated multiobjective decision making process for supplier selection and order allocation

Supplier selection is a multi-criteria problem which includes both tangible and intangible factors. In these problems if suppliers have capacity or other different constraints two problems will exist: which suppliers are the best and how much should be purchased from each selected supplier? In this paper an integrated approach of analytic network process (ANP) and multi-objective mixed integer linear programming (MOMILP) is proposed to consider both tangible and intangible factors in choosing the best suppliers and define the optimum quantities among selected suppliers to maximize the total value of purchasing and minimize the budget and defect rate. The priorities are calculated for each supplier by using ANP. Four different plastic molding firms working with a refrigerator plant are evaluated according to 14 criteria that are involved in the four clusters: benefits, opportunities, costs and risks (BOCR). Also the priorities of suppliers will be used as the parameters of the first objective function. This multi-objective real-life problem was solved by using ε$\epsilon$-constraint method and a reservation level driven Tchebycheff procedure. Finally, the most preferred nondominated solutions were determined by considering decision maker's (DM) preferences and the results obtained by these techniques are compared.     

钢铁企业MTO-MTS混合合同计划管理模式研究

Based on the production organization processes of steel-iron factories,this paper proposes a hybrid MTO-MTS order planning management method,and establishes integer programming models for the order planning problems based on MTO management idea and MTO-MTS management idea respectively． The models take into account earliness/tardiness penalty,inventory cost,production cost,inventory matching cost and order cancellation penalty,and consider inventory matching and production planning simultaneously． In order to solve the models,a PSO algorithm with heuristic repaired strategy for infeasible solutions is designed． In the experiments,parameters are analyzed and three sets of data with different order quantities are tested． Numerical results show that the MTO-MTS management mode can avoid the risk of demand forecasting inaccuracy, coordinate the contradiction of fast delivery and low inventory,and adapt to the development trend of the diversification and individualization of market demand．     

Design and Analysis of Hospital Admission Control for Operational Effectiveness

Variability in hospital occupancy negatively impacts the cost and quality of patient care delivery through increased emergency department (ED) congestion, emergency blockages and diversions, elective cancelations, backlogs in ancillary services, overstaffing, and understaffing. Controlling inpatient admissions can effectively reduce variability in hospital occupancy to mitigate these problems. Currently there are two major gateways for admission to a hospital: the ED and scheduled elective admission. Unfortunately, in highly utilized hospitals, excessive wait times make the scheduled gateway undesirable or infeasible for a subset of patients and doctors. As a result, this group often uses the ED gateway as a means to gain admission to the hospital. To better serve these patients and improve overall hospital functioning, we propose creating a third gateway: an expedited patient care queue. We first characterize an optimal admission threshold policy using controls on the scheduled and expedited gateways for a new Markov decision process model. We then present a practical policy based on insight from the analytical model that yields reduced emergency blockages, cancelations, and off‐unit census via simulation based on historical hospital data.     

Elective Patient Admission and Scheduling under Multiple Resource Constraints

We consider a patient admission problem to a hospital with multiple resource constraints (e.g., OR and beds) and a stochastic evolution of patient care requirements across multiple resources. There is a small but significant proportion of emergency patients who arrive randomly and have to be accepted at the hospital. However, the hospital needs to decide whether to accept, postpone, or even reject the admission from a random stream of non‐emergency elective patients. We formulate the control process as a Markov decision process to maximize expected contribution net of overbooking costs, develop bounds using approximate dynamic programming, and use them to construct heuristics. We test our methods on data from the Ronald Reagan UCLA Medical Center and find that our intuitive newsvendor‐based heuristic performs well across all scenarios.     

基于风险偏好差异性假设的动态决策过程研究

针对风险偏好差异性决策者共存时的决策过程进行研究,提出边求解边对决策者分类决策再进行信息融合的动态决策策略.从客观数据角度基于属性值相似关系提取有效属性并对有效属性进行赋权;根据决策者对决策活动的选择判断逐步嵌入风险偏好(风险偏好型、风险中立型、风险规避型);基于属性值之间的可能度与相似度,构建相应类型的风险偏好预期理论模型;在决策信息集结与决策对象排序过程中,根据决策者的风险偏好特征选择相适应的算法模型;针对风险偏好差异性决策者共存的情形,基于决策结果公平效用最大化的角度提出新的信息融合模型构建算法;通过实际案例进行分析并验证这一新方法的科学合理性.     

A decision support system for optimising the order fulfilment process

Many authors have highlighted gaps at the interfaces between supply chains (SCs) and demand chains. Generally, the latter tends primarily to be ‘agile’ by maximising effectiveness and responsiveness while the former tends to be ‘lean’ by maximising efficiency. When, in the SC, disruptions (that lead to stock-out situations) occur after customer orders have been accepted, managers are faced with the problem of maximising customer satisfaction while taking into consideration the conflicting objectives of the supply and demand sides of the order fulfilment process. This article proposes a cross-functional multi-criteria decision-making (advanced available-to-promise) tool that provides different strategic options from which a solution can be chosen. It also proposes a performance measurement system to support the decision-making and improvement process. The results of some experimental tests show that the model enables to make strategic decisions on the degree of flexibility required to achieve the desired level of customer service.     

基于神经网络的期货套期保值决策支持系统

针对期货套期保值业务的特点 ,分析了期货套期保值决策支持系统的整体逻辑 ,尝试用人工神经网络专家系统预测期货行情走势 ,介绍了如何将期货市场与 BP网络有机结合起来构造适合期价预测的模型 ,并且在实证分析中给出了寻找最优预测效果的方法以及预测结论应用分析 .同时 ,提出了以此分析为基础的 DSS系统结构和功能 ,对辅助套期保值者决策有一定的指导意义