突发事件中舆情传播机制与演化博弈分析

针对当前研究较少从属性层次来研究突发事件中的舆情传播问题,本文运用突发事件的结构化描述方法从属性层次分析了舆情的产生和传播的动力学机制,进而分别建立了传播主体的决策行为和博弈关系的结构化描述框架。然后,考虑传播主体的认知差异,运用演化博弈论方法分别对社会公众之间及社会公众与政府部门之间的博弈关系进行了研究。最后,运用实际案例对理论研究的有效性进行了验证,并运用数值仿真考查了该案例中博弈主体的认知差异对博弈均衡的影响。     

规范突发事件网络舆情应对预案与处置

近年来,因突发事件网络舆情应对不及时、不规范、不正确而造成较大负面影响,也严重影响事件的公正处置和善后,给单位、社会和国家造成不可估量的后果.本文分析应对预案与处置方法.     

基于SNA的突发事件微博舆情传播网络结构分析——以“4.20四川雅安地震”为例

运用社会网络分析(SNA)研究突发事件微博舆情传播的网络结构特征,探究微博舆情传播的网络结构对微博信息传播的影响。以2013年重大突发事件"4.20四川雅安地震"为例,运用ucinet软件生成微博舆情传播网络拓扑图,基于统计得到的微博节点关系矩阵进行微博舆情传播网络整体结构、角色与位置结构等测量。测量结果表明,媒体用户、政府用户、地震经历者以及积极参与救援者在舆情传播网络中具有较高的传播能力,因此可以通过影响这些关键节点有效控制舆情的传播速度。本文采用实证方式对突发事件微博舆情传播网络结构进行了分析与测量,拓展了SNA在突发事件应急管理中的应用。     

网络舆情视角下非常规突发事件应急管理机制研究

非常规突发事件除了在现实社会中产生影响外,也会在网络舆情中产生巨大的影响力,并直接左右事件的发展过程.深入研究非常规突发事件和网络舆情的规律特征,有助于政府加强对于网络舆情的管理,并能在非常规事件突发的情况下把握话语权,将潜在的风险降至最低.政府对网络舆情要做好快速反应机制、防控和预判机制、网络舆情引导控制机制以及应急处置机制的建设.     

高校突发事件网络舆情传播的博弈分析--以香港占中事件为例

高校突发事件网络舆情的管理关系到高校教学乃至社会发展的稳定。以香港“占中”事件为例,运用演化博弈分析方法,建立学生群体面对突发事件策略选择的博弈模型,通过模型分析学生策略选择对网络舆情演变的影响。该模型可推广到一般的高校突发事件,对研究高校突发事件网络舆情具有一定的借鉴意义。     

公共突发事件网络舆情的传播模式和演进机制研究

一、公共突发事件网络舆情研究的动因互联网在1995年以商业应用的方式进入中国,最先只是作为一种单纯的传播技术创新,经过16年的发展,互联网在推动经济发展的同时,也越来越多地影响到中国社会和政治的生态环境。互联网成为各种社会舆情的主要策源地和扩散地,导致局部问题全国化、社     

突发事件演化模型与应急决策:相关领域研究述评

随着人类社会工业化发展,突发事件爆发的频率和危害越来越大,本文首先介绍了国外突发事件的研究领域,分析了国外突发事件及相关领域演化模型和应急决策方面的研究现状.在此基础上,作者提出了突发事件演化机理及其应急决策下一步研究的内容.     

加快提升科学管理突发事件网络舆情的质量水平

有效应对突发事件网络舆情,必须加强网络舆情管理工作。一要确立政府部门主体地位,明确各级政府网络舆情管理职责;二要把握网络舆情管理原则,建立完善各级网络舆情管理机制;三要明确网络舆情管理分工,科学制定舆情管理各项规章制度;四要持续监测网上舆情活动,实时掌握网络舆情热点动向与动态;五要统一指挥部署应对预案,有效掌控突发事件网络舆情变化;六要建立网络舆情评估制度,切实做好舆情统计分析评估工作。     

基于应对等级的突发事件网络舆情热度分析

突发事件应对等级是应急管理部门采取应对措施的基础,而网络舆情热度是突发事件态势发展的一个重要因素。以应对等级为切入点,构建网络舆情热度评价指标体系,从不同应对等级和事件类型的角度选取8个典型案例,运用GooSeeker等工具进行案例数据挖掘,获得各突发事件的舆情热度值,进一步通过构建突发事件应对等级和舆情热度分析图,发现其存在"一致"和"不一致"的对应关系。研究结果表明：一方面,把突发事件应对等级引入网络舆情热度量表,使舆情热度的评价与政府发布的应对等级建立联系,评价指标更加完善。另一方面,获得不同对应关系下应对等级对舆情热度的指标贡献,对突发事件网络舆情应对提出了更有针对性和科学性的建议。     

Individual and organizational strategies for coping with organizational change

Abstract

During times of significant change to organizations in strategies and structures, employees can experience high levels of stress as their jobs, areas of responsibility and roles also change. Yet research is curiously silent about how people react to organizational change, especially towards promoting healthy responses to change. As a first step to outlining areas for future research this paper considers a range of individual and organizational strategies that may be effective in reducing employee stress and related problems. Prior to the implementation of these strategies, however, organizations must empower employees to adopt the role of change agent and encourage them to take action to solve the problems that stress them. At the individual level, employees can respond to the stress created by organizational change by using problem- and emotion-focused strategies. Also important in coping with change are the personal resources of employees, including a sense of hardiness, beliefs about having control over their work environment, and the availability of social supports within and outside the organization. Although few organizations fully acknowledge their role in helping employees cope with change, there are a number of initiatives that organizations can pursue. Several strategies are discussed in relation to communication, leadership, job-related tasks and stress management programmes.     

Individual and organizational strategies for coping with organizational change

During times of significant change to organizations in strategies and structures, employees can experience high levels of stress as their jobs, areas of responsibility and roles also change. Yet research is curiously silent about how people react to organizational change, especially towards promoting healthy responses to change. As a first step to outlining areas for future research this paper considers a range of individual and organizational strategies that may be effective in reducing employee stress and related problems. Prior to the implementation of these strategies, however, organizations must empower employees to adopt the role of change agent and encourage them to take action to solve the problems that stress them. At the individual level, employees can respond to the stress created by organizational change by using problem- and emotion-focused strategies. Also important in coping with change are the personal resources of employees, including a sense of hardiness, beliefs about having control over their work environment, and the availability of social supports within and outside the organization. Although few organizations fully acknowledge their role in helping employees cope with change, there are a number of initiatives that organizations can pursue. Several strategies are discussed in relation to communication, leadership, job-related tasks and stress management programmes.     

舆情传播中考虑公众风险感知的多资源流应急优化调度

针对舆情传播背景下应急资源调度问题的特殊性,首先运用多案例分析进行了具体描述。然后,考虑到公众的有限理性,运用前景理论对其风险感知行为进行了刻画,并给出了保留供应率的定义。进一步,运用模糊理论来刻画公众追溯以往的资源供应状况,在同时考虑到供应点和配送中心的能力扩充基础上,构建了多种类资源应急优化调度的0-1混合整数非线性模糊规划模型。最后,以2011年东日本大地震事件为例验证了理论研究的有效性,并考查了决策者在控制公众风险感知中的偏好行为对最优调度方案的影响。     

考虑遗忘机制的企业隐性知识传播SIR模型研究

隐性知识及其传播是形成现代企业核心竞争力的重要基础。本文首先构建了包含学习者、传播者和免疫者三类传播主体,且考虑遗忘机制的企业隐性知识传播SIR复杂网络模型;其次,对模型进行稳态分析,从而计算出隐性知识在企业传播开来的传播率阈值λ_c,当隐性知识传播率λ>λ_c时,考察的隐性知识能够在企业内部传播开来,否则考察的隐性知识将在企业内部逐渐消失;最后,应用Matlab对模型参数进行仿真研究。研究发现：企业内部隐性知识传播受到遗忘因素和网络结构的影响,在网络结构确定的情况下,遗忘率越大,企业内部隐性知识的传播越缓慢,甚至逐渐消失。为了提高隐性知识传播效果,企业应该定期进行干预培训,降低遗忘机制对隐性知识传播的影响。     

考虑双重传播路径的关联信用风险传染机理研究

关联信用风险及其传染是现代信用风险管理的热点和难点问题。本文基于复杂网络的平均场理论,运用传染病模型刻画关联信用个体之间关联信用风险的传染机制;并考虑潜伏期和感染期均具传染性的双重传播路径,分析了网络中关联信用风险传染的稳定状态;进一步,在一般关联信用个体网络环境中,探讨了关联信用风险传染的影响因素对稳定状态的影响。研究表明：关联信用风险传染的临界值和网络结构有关,与潜伏期和感染期呈反向变化,与潜伏个体和感染个体的相互转化率呈同向变化,与潜伏期传染率和感染期传染率呈同向变化;稳定状态时潜伏个体密度与潜伏期和传染率呈同向变化,与感染期呈反向变化;稳定状态时感染个体密度与感染期和传染率呈同向变化,与潜伏期呈反向变化。本文的研究丰富了信用风险的研究范畴,为企业和银行等信用个体管控信用风险提供了新的视角。     

雾霾感知风险与公众应对行为的实证分析

通过在雾霾严重时期收集的大规模问卷调查数据,建立了雾霾感知风险等因素与应对行为之间关系的结构方程模型.分析显示,对环境信息越敏感、雾霾感知风险越大、对雾霾知识了解越多、雾霾感知可控性越大的公众会采取更多的防护与应对措施,他们对相关防护产品的购买意愿也越强.特别是,感知风险在环境信息与应对行为以及环境满意度之间起着重要的中介变量作用,即当雾霾污染引起人们的感知风险时,会促使他们采取更多的应对行为,并且对环境满意度评价产生负面影响.另外,雾霾感知可控性在雾霾知识熟悉度与应对行为以及环境满意度之间起着部分中介变量的作用.     

Cognitive therapy and behavioural coping in the management of work-related stress: An intervention study

Transactional models of stress emphasize the importance of cognitive appraisal of potential stressors in the determination of the stress response. This appraisal can be modified by the use of techniques normally associated with cognitive therapy. The contribution of a specifically cognitive component when intervening in work-related stress has not been well evaluated to date. This research seeks to determine the effectiveness of stress management training in the treatment of the work-related effects of stress by comparing the role of modifying dysfunctional cognitions with the teaching of appropriate behavioural coping strategies. Participants were allocated to one of two intervention conditions or to a waiting list control group. Those in the intervention conditions received group stress management either with the focus on delivering cognitive therapy techniques or with the focus on behavioural coping skills. Measures of general health were taken at the beginning and end of intervention and at 3-month follow-up. Participants in the cognitive therapy groups who were reporting symptoms of general ill-health at the start of the intervention showed a significant improvement at follow-up. Cognitive therapy appears to have been an effective intervention in work-related stress. Those in the behavioural group showed a smaller but still clinically effective improvement. Results are discussed in terms of methodological issues and implications for future research. It is suggested that changes in cognitive appraisal may need to be developed.     

Medical capacity investment for epidemic disease: The effects of policymaker's confidence and public trust

Due to the server bed shortage, which has raised ethical dilemmas in the earliest days of the COVID-19 crisis, medical capacity investment has become a vital decision-making issue in the attempt to contain the epidemic. Furthermore, economic strength has failed to explain the significant performance difference across countries in combatting COVID-19. Unlike common diseases, epidemic diseases add substantial unpredictability, complexity, and uncertainty to decision-making. Knowledge miscalibration on epidemiological uncertainties by policymaker's over- and underconfidence can seriously impact policymaking. Ineffective risk communication may lead to conflicting and incoherent information transmission. As a result, public reactions and attitudes could be influenced by policymakers' confidence due to the level of public trust, which eventually affects the degree to which an epidemic spreads. To uncover the impacts of policymakers' confidence and public trust on the medical capacity investment, we establish epidemic diffusion models to characterize how transmission evolves with (and without) vaccination and frame the capacity investment problem as a newsvendor problem. Our results show that if the public fully trusts the public health experts, the policymaker's behavioral bias is always harmful, but its effect on cost increment is marginal. If a policymaker's behavior induces public reactions due to public trust, both the spread of the epidemic and the overall performance will be significantly affected, but such impacts are not always harmful. Decision bias may be beneficial when policymakers are pessimistic or highly overconfident. Having an opportunity to amend initially biased decisions can debias a particular topic but has a limited cost-saving effect.