Presidents, Prosperity, and Public Opinion

A president skillful enough, or fortunate enough, to presideover a healthy economy is rewarded with public support. Thispaper examines two conceptions of the individual citizen thatmight underlie this relationship. A president's popularity mightdecline when economic times are bad because citizens in effectblame him for their personal hardships—the pocketbookcitizen hypothesis—or because they see the president asfailing to cope adequately with national economic problems,quite apart from the economic dislocations of private life—thesociotropic citizen hypothesis. Across a variety of tests, resultsfrom national surveys covering the Nixon, Ford, and Carter presidenciesconsistently supported the sociotropic hypothesis. The paperconcludes by suggesting several promising explanations for thefindings, and by exploring their normative implications.     

The White House and public relations: Examining the linkages between presidential communications and public opinion

This study investigates the linkages between presidential public relations activities—speeches and press conferences—and public opinion towards the presidency from 1961 to 1997. The results show that there is a positive linkage between presidential news conferences and foreign policy job approval, and between presidential speeches and general as well as foreign policy job approval. Overall, the findings reveal stronger linkages between presidential news conferences and job approval than between presidential speeches and job approval, but also that the topic of the information subsidies and the specific type of job approval matters.     

Bill Clinton, Newt Gingrich, and the 1998 House Elections

The outcome of the 1998 congressional elections was an exceptionto the rule that the president's party loses seats in midtermHouse elections. This article reviews and draws together theoreticallythe distinctive characteristics of the political context in1998 and assesses the effects of the public's evaluations ofBill Clinton (as president and as a person) and Speaker of theHouse Newt Gingrich. The findings suggest that voters' viewsof Bill Clinton as president exerted a sizable effect on theelections. A substantial influence of public opinion towardNewt Gingrich is also revealed. The estimated effects of voters'opinions of Bill Clinton as a person were much smaller. Twoestimates of the combined effects indicate that if public opiniontoward Clinton and Gingrich had been evenly balanced, the Democraticparty would have lost seats in the 1998 House elections as thepresident's party traditionally has. In addition to providinginsight into the 1998 elections, the findings answer broaderquestions about congressional elections. They also bear on importantquestions regarding the extent to which the determinants ofpolitical judgments are subject to influence ("priming") bythe political environment.     

Elena Andreevna Shvarts (17 May 1948–11 March 2010)

Abstract

A critical exploration is provided of the path and building metaphors used in the speeches of the former Russian president Vladimir Putin. We use the concepts of 'discourse metaphor' and 'frame' in our analysis of a corpus of Putin's speeches written and delivered between 2000 and 2007 in order to reveal the rhetorical strategies employed in them, and establish the ideological patterns of metaphor use. The metaphors are identified, analysed according to source domains, and then explored for their contribution to the overall project of the Russian president. Our findings suggest that, although the metaphorical expressions used by Putin are conventional and have a strong experiential grounding, in pragmatic terms, the choice of them appears to be in line with the legitimization and delegitimization strategies adopted by the former Russian president during his two terms in office.     

Examining Variance in Presidential Approval: The Case of FDR in World War II

Despite the substantive growth and increasing methodologicalsophistication of the presidential approval literature overthe last four decades, almost all analyses continue to focusexclusively on the mean of the approval distribution—thepercentage of Americans who approve of the president at a givenmoment. However, changes in the variance of popular supportfor the president may be as politically and substantively importantas shifts in the mean. To illustrate how a focus on variancecan enrich our understanding of changes in the president’spublic standing, this analysis examines the effects of the economyand World War II on the variance in popular support for FranklinD. Roosevelt. At the aggregate level, the study shows that highpeacetime unemployment and mounting casualties increased thevolatility of FDR’s standing among federal relief recipients,erstwhile his most consistent base of support. At the individuallevel, the analysis demonstrates that individuals with conflictingpartisan, economic, and war-related considerations for evaluatingthe president were more variable in their approval of Rooseveltthan were other respondents. Exporting a similar focus on varianceto other lines of research across the public opinion subfieldcould produce a richer understanding of the complex processesdriving opinion change over time.     

Unions in the 2000 election: A strategic-choice perspective

In the 2000 elections, organized labor mounted a“massive“ political effort. The AFL-CIO spearheaded a program that emphasized both grassroots and“checkbook” politics. Labor 2000, however, represented much more than an attempt to influence elections. Political action, dedicated to a“Working Families Agenda“ became a strategy of choice to elect candidates, influence lawmakers, mobilize union members, and recruit workers into the labor movement. In this paper, I examine Labor 2000 from a strategic-choice perspective. Specifically, I look at the scope and variety of labor's political effort; how labor allocated its political resources; the degree of competition it faced; and the election outcomes. In addition, I examine the effort in terms of its potential for transforming unions. Data from a variety of sources, some of which have not been previously used, are examined to put Labor 2000 into perspective as a strategy. The results indicate that labor did have some success in mobilizing union members politically. However, labor's impact proved insufficient to achieve immediate national election goals. Questions remain about the wisdom of political action as a strategy of choice, especially in terms of its viability as an instrument for institutional revival.     

The generalized action potential of protest movements: The new class,social trends,and political exclusion explanations

Three explanations have been advanced to account for the generalized action potential of contemporary protest movements: the rise of the new class, a set of general social trends that cumulatively lead to liberalized social values and loosened social restraints against protest, and the mobilization of excluded groups. Analyzing three dimensions of generalized action potential—protest potential, political action repertoires, and protest movement support—we find support for all three explanations. Educated salaried professionals, especially sociocultural and public sector professionals, display greater protest potential, especially for civil disobedience, and are supportive of emerging “middle class” movements. A set of general social trends centering on increased education, life-cycle and generational change, secularism, and increased women's autonomy also create greater action potential. Reflecting mobilization against political exclusion, African Americans display a consistently strong generalized action potential. These protests reflect the rise of new political repertoires, particularly “protest activism,” which combines protest with high levels of conventional participation and is centered among the more educated.     

The political effects of grievance handling by stewards in a local union

This study develops and tests three long-standing propositions about the relationship between grievance-handling behavior and political outcomes in a local union: (1) more favorable grievance handling enhances the steward’s likelihood of re-election; (2) the more the political support obtained in an election, the greater the steward’s ability to affect grievance outcomes favorably; and (3) as the relationship between management and the union evolves, grievance handling becomes more efficient and effective. Data on grievances and election results of Ford-UAW Local 400 from the 1950s were used to test hypotheses derived from these propositions; most received substantial, significant support.     

The paradox of multiple elections

Assume that voters must choose between voting yes (Y) and voting no (N) on three propositions on a referendum. If the winning combination is NYY on the first, second, and third propositions, respectively, the paradox of multiple elections is that NYY can receive the fewest votes of the 2³ = 8 combinations. Several variants of this paradox are illustrated, and necessary and sufficient conditions for its occurrence, related to the “incoherence” of support, are given. The paradox is shown, via an isomorphism, to be a generalization of the well-known paradox of voting. One real-life example of the paradox involving voting on propositions in California, in which not a single voter voted on the winning side of all the propositions, is given. Several empirical examples of variants of the paradox that manifested themselves in federal elections – one of which led to divided government – and legislative votes in the US House of Representatives, are also analyzed. Possible normative implications of the paradox, such as allowing voters to vote directly for combinations using approval voting or the Borda count, are discussed. Received: 31 July 1996 / Accepted: 1 October 1996     

Crime and Punishment in Canada: A Statistical Test of the “Conventional Wisdom”*

Trois propositions fondamentales qui traduisent les impressions populaires sur le crime et ses chatiments sont mises a l'epreuve dans une analyse regressive a l'aide des moindres carres. Voici les resultats obtenus: (a) le taux general de criminalite n'a pas augmente durant les annees 1950-66 si on met de cote les infractions mineures; (b) durant la meme periode les jugements ne furent pas moins severes et les disparites dans les sentences ne se sont pas amenuisees; (c) 1'augmentation du taux des offenses mineures est directement associee a l'accroissement de la force policiere. On cherche a expliquer pourquoi les croyances populaires persistent meme si elles sont refutees par les faits. Three propositions which express the conventional wisdom about crime and punishment are tested with least squares regression analysis. The results are that the over-all crime rate has not increased between 1950 and 1966 (except for trivial infractions); sentences have not become more lenient, nor have disparities in sentencing decreased throughout the same period. Increases in the rates for the less serious offences are positively correlated with increases in the size of the police force. Reasons for the persistence of belief in the conventional wisdom in the face of contradictory evidence are offered.     

Europe and the Euro: Do not Indulge in Misinterpreting Strength as Weakness

The change was not only promised during Obama’s electoral campaign but urgently invoked by all the major international actors in view of the financial and economic crises: the world foreign policy has suddenly entered a new age not being yet prepared to govern globalization and its wide interdependence conditionality. Even Russia has changed tune now and President Medvedev announced vigorously a new strategy, a new policy, and a new drive for Russia. Until a few years ago, the theories of International Relations were simply an American intellectual and governance exit of the growing role of the US in the world, a kind of field of competence for the greatest power in the global economic, political, strategic and innovative sectors. The British School was an island of the core American thinking and the rest of the world mostly absent. FSU has not expressed a relevant contribution to the various schools of thinking related to the IR theories and even the Marxist political scientists did not dedicate specifically to this main research area because convinced that first it was not a real “science” but a derivative outcome from Philosophy or Political Science; secondly, for the reason of the monopoly of the power in the hands of an autocratic regime where these issues were not left to the researchers and experts but only to the institutional and military leadership. Today Russia—after having caressed and found opportunistically convenient to resume the realism doctrines of the past US almost decennial Presidency, with modest attempts to assume the great changes in international affairs intervened— has the chance to take the last train for a competitive power role, “de facto” under the unavoidable strict rules of engagement of the global governance. In the 2020–2030 the world would be completely reshape by the present metamorphosis.     

Collective violence as social control

Collective violence is often social control: self-help by a group. It typically defines and responds to conduct as deviant. When unilateral and nongovernmental, it appears in four major forms—lynching, rioting, vigilantism, and terrorism—each distinguished by its system of liability (individual or collective) and degree of organization (higher or lower). Following Donald Black's paradigm of pure sociology, the central assumption is that collective violence varies with its location and direction in social space—the conflict structure. I offer ten propositions that predict and explain the likelihood and severity of collective violence in general and the four forms of collective violence in particular. Conflict structures with a high degree of relational distance, cultural distance, functional independence, and inequality between the adversaries are associated with collective violence in general. Each of the four forms depends on the degree of social polarization between the parties as well as the continuity of the deviant behavior to which the violence responds. Earlier versions of this paper were presented at the Annual Meeting of the American Sociological Association, Pittsburgh, Pennsylvania, August 1992, and the Centennial Congress of the International Institute of Sociology, University of Paris (Sorbonne), Paris, June 1993.     

The impact of labor unions on the passage of economic legislation

This paper examines the political power of labor unions. A model of the decision of an interest group to contribute to a political campaign is developed and tested. The empirical evidence indicates that interest groups, and unions in particular, use political contributions in a systematic and coordinated manner. Unions give money to candidates with relatively little seniority (who might otherwise not be elected) and to candidates from districts with about the average number of union members. Such candidates might otherwise not vote as the union would desire. The influence of campaign contributions and of union membership on the voting of congressmen on issues of interest to unions is also investigated. Union membership is sometimes significant and campaign contributions are always significant in explaining voting on minimum wages, wageprice controls, benefits for strikers, and OSHA and CETA appropriations. The indirect economic effects of labor unions — those effects which occur because unions influence legislation — may be as important as the direct effects which occur through collective bargaining.     

Confucianism in the Chinese media: an analysis of the revolutionary history television drama In Those Passionate Days

This paper explores the relationship between revolutionary history television dramas and the social context in which these dramas are televised in China with In Those Passionate Days serving as an example. Specifically, the paper focuses on the construction of the hero in the drama and the ways in which audiences' interpretations of the drama are indicative of a contemporary revival of Confucian values and practices in Chinese society. The audience is people born after 1980 as this generation is often related to a new generation in China that values independence and hedonism, unlike their parents. Based on a reception analysis of the 1980s-generation viewers of the drama, the paper shows that In Those Passionate Days in the participants' views is structured around the Confucian values of benevolence, qing, and filial piety – values the viewers also found desirable and practiced in their daily lives. The study concludes with the view that the media is key to promoting historically grounded values and practices that legitimize the leadership of the state and provide a moral code for social relationships in contemporary China.     

Change and Stability in Presidential Popularity at the Individual Level

This article employs a three-wave panel to examine change andstability in the popularity of the president. By survey standards,the item is found to be quite reliable, approaching the reliabilityof party identification. Change in the item can be predictedusing measures of political interest and sophistication, partisanship,and strength of presidential approval or disapproval.     

Do Yuppies Matter? Competing Explanations of Their Political Distinctiveness

"Yuppies"—young urban professionals—have often beenportrayed as an important new political force. Using data fromthe 1972–1985 cumulative General Social Survey data file,this article tests various explanations of the political distinctivenessof yuppies. The findings call into question the assumption thatyouth, urbanity, and professional status combine to form a distinctyuppie political culture above and beyond what would be expectedon the basis of an additive combination of these factors. Forthis and other reasons, the political importance of the yuppiephenomenon appears to have been overstated.     

Voting power: an information theory approach

In recent years, there has been increasing awareness of the importance of formal measures of voting power and of the relevance of such measures to real life political issues. Nevertheless, existing measures have been criticized, especially because of their dependence on the unrealistic assumption that different coalitions have equal probabilities. In this paper we show that the classical problem of measuring voting power can be naturally embedded in information theory. This perspective on voting power allows us to extend measures of voting power to cases in which there are dependencies among voters. In doing so, we distinguish between two different notions of a given voter’s power—‘control’ and ‘informativeness’—corresponding, respectively, to the average uncertainty regarding the outcome of a vote that remains when all others have voted and the average uncertainty that is eliminated when only the given voter has voted. This distinction settles a number of well-known paradoxes and enables the study of voting power on the basis of actual political behavior at all levels.     

The Impact of Europeanization upon Party Systems in Slovakia and Romania

Usually the concept of Europeanization refers to processes that download the European Union (the EU) regulations and institutional structures to the domestic level. Moreover, in the last few years the specialized literature has become increasingly preoccupied by the development of national patterns of government through the impact of European policies, processes and institutions. The developments and changes in domestic systems—much more visible in the new member states—suggest that the EU has enormous political and institutional influence. In line with this view, the paper examines the different degrees in which Europeanization has become a transforming political process, particularly in two new post-Communist democracies: Slovakia and Romania. More specifically, the interest is to survey the impact and the way in which Europeanization was incorporated in the rationale of party discourse, identity and policies in the Central-Eastern countries in the pre-accession period.      

SELF-INTEREST AND PUBLIC OPINION TOWARD SMOKING POLICIES; A REPLICATION AND EXTENSION

Numerous studies report that self-interest has a non significantinfluence upon various political and social attitudes. In contrast,a recent article by Green and Gerken (1989) reports a Californiastudy showing that cigarette smokers are significantly moreopposed than nonsmokers to public smoking restrictions and tobaccosales tax increases. The present article replicates and extendsthis analysis with data from two different states—Illinois(in 1984, N=458)—and North Carolina (in 1985, N=488)—andusing analysis techniques that differ from and expand upon theCalifornia study. Despite these methodological differ ences,self-interest is again shown to have a significant influenceon opinions concerning public smoking restrictions and taxation,as well as on several additional issues relating to smokingand tobacco.     

The stranger as seer or voyeur: A dilemma of the peep-show theory of knowledge

The belief that ‘the stranger’ (outsider, disinterested third party) sees things more clearly, i.e. is more “objective,” is seen to be a corner-stone of folk wisdom; underlying Western judicial thought and concepts of objectivity in the social sciences. The author raises the dilemma that both positivistic and humanistic sociologists accept this belief—suggesting 1) that it is a residue of positivism and a quest for certain knowledge, or 2) the possibility that ‘the stranger’ does gain deeper insight into group life than members. The paper examines the concept of the stranger, considering the aura of charisma that seems to have been attached to it in ordinary discourse as well as within the sociological dialogue. Two types of strangers are described: outsiders and enemies within. Finally, an attempt is made to examine the testimony of prominant strangers as they describe their marginal status and speculate on the ways that status has made them unusually perceptive observers of social phenomena.