Empirical characteristic function tests for GARCH innovation distribution using multipliers

Goodness-of-fit tests for the innovation distribution in GARCH models based on measuring deviations between the empirical characteristic function of the residuals and the characteristic function under the null hypothesis have been proposed in the literature. The asymptotic distributions of these test statistics depend on unknown quantities, so their null distributions are usually estimated through parametric bootstrap (PB). Although easy to implement, the PB can become very computationally expensive for large sample sizes, which is typically the case in applications of these models. This work proposes to approximate the null distribution through a weighted bootstrap. The procedure is studied both theoretically and numerically. Its asymptotic properties are similar to those of the PB, but, from a computational point of view, it is more efficient.     

Bootstrap Testing for Changes in Persistence with Heavy-Tailed Innovations

This article considers the problem of detection for changes in persistence with heavy-tailed innovations. We adopt a ratio type test and derive its null asymptotic distribution which is dependent on the stable index. Then a residual-based bootstrap is proposed when the stable index is unknown. Our procedure requires drawing bootstrap samples of size m < T, T being the size of original sample. We establish the convergence in probability of the bootstrap distribution function assuming that m → ∞ and m/T → 0. A Monte Carlo study has shown that the bootstrap improve the finite sample size and power compared to the asymptotic test, especially for small stable index.     

协整参数的自举推断

 针对完全修正最小二乘(full-modified ordinary least square,简称FMOLS）估计方法,给出一种协整参数的自举推断程序,证明零假设下自举统计量与检验统计量具有相同的渐近分布。关于检验功效的研究表明,虽然有约束自举的实际检验水平表现良好,但如果零假设不成立,自举统计量的分布是不确定的,因而其经验分布不能作为检验统计量精确分布的有效估计。实际应用中建议使用无约束自举,因为无论观测数据是否满足零假设,其自举统计量与零假设下检验统计量都具有相同的渐近分布。最后,利用蒙特卡洛模拟对自举推断和渐近推断的有限样本表现进行比较研究。     

On cramér-von mises tests of goodness of fit with censored data

The paper considers the goodness of fit tests with right censored data or doubly censored data. The Fredholm Integral Equation (FIE) method proposed by Ren (1993) is implemented in the simulation studies to estimate the null distribution of the Cramér-von Mises test statistics and the asymptotic covariance function of the self-consistent estimator for the lifetime distribution with right censored data or doubly censored data. We show that for fixed alternatives, the bootstrap method does not estimate the null distribution consistently for doubly censored data. For the right censored case, a comparison between the performance of FIE and the η out of η bootstrap shows that FIE gives better estimation for the null distribution. The application of FIE to a set of right censored Channing House data and to a set of doubly censored breast cancer data is presented.     

A weighted bootstrap approximation for comparing the error distributions in nonparametric regression

Several procedures have been proposed for testing the equality of error distributions in two or more nonparametric regression models. Here we deal with methods based on comparing estimators of the cumulative distribution function (CDF) of the errors in each population to an estimator of the common CDF under the null hypothesis. The null distribution of the associated test statistics has been approximated by means of a smooth bootstrap (SB) estimator. This paper proposes to approximate their null distribution through a weighted bootstrap. It is shown that it produces a consistent estimator. The finite sample performance of this approximation is assessed by means of a simulation study, where it is also compared to the SB. This study reveals that, from a computational point of view, the proposed approximation is more efficient than the one provided by the SB.     

Tests for Symmetric Error Distribution in Linear and Nonparametric Regression Models

In linear and nonparametric regression models, the problem of testing for symmetry of the distribution of errors is considered. We propose a test statistic which utilizes the empirical characteristic function of the corresponding residuals. The asymptotic null distribution of the test statistic as well as its behavior under alternatives is investigated. A simulation study compares bootstrap versions of the proposed test to other more standard procedures.     

Function-based hypothesis testing in censored two-sample location-scale models

Function-based hypothesis testing in two-sample location-scale models has been addressed for uncensored data using the empirical characteristic function. A test of adequacy in censored two-sample location-scale models is lacking, however. A plug-in empirical likelihood approach is used to introduce a test statistic, which, asymptotically, is not distribution free. Hence for practical situations bootstrap is necessary for performing the test. A multiplier bootstrap and a model appropriate resampling procedure are given to approximate critical values from the null asymptotic distribution. Although minimum distance estimators of the location and scale are deployed for the plug-in, any consistent estimators can be used. Numerical studies are carried out that validate the proposed testing method, and real example illustrations are given.

     

On entropy goodness-of-fit test based on integrated distribution function

In this study, we consider an entropy-type goodness-of-fit (GOF) test based on integrated distribution functions. We first construct the test for the simple vs. simple hypothesis and then extend it to the composite hypothesis case. It is shown that under regularity conditions, the null limiting distribution of the proposed test is a function of a Brownian bridge. A bootstrap method is also considered and is shown to be weakly consistent. A simulation study and real data analysis are conducted for illustration.     

New inference procedures for generalized Poisson distributions

A common feature for compound Poisson and Katz distributions is that both families may be viewed as generalizations of the Poisson law. In this paper, we present a unified approach in testing the fit to any distribution belonging to either of these families. The test involves the probability generating function, and it is shown to be consistent under general alternatives. The asymptotic null distribution of the test statistic is obtained, and an effective bootstrap procedure is employed in order to investigate the performance of the proposed test with real and simulated data. Comparisons with classical methods based on the empirical distribution function are also included.     

Testing a markov chain for independence

A bootstrap procedure is proposed for testing whether an observed Markov chain is actually an independent process, based on the observed transition probability matrix. The results of simulations showing the power and size of the bootstrap test are presented. The asymptotic distribution of the non-unit eigenvalues is given under the null hypothesis.     

Testing for Linear Regression Relationships in Randomly Right-Censored Varying-Coefficient Models

A test statistic is constructed to test linear relationships in randomly right-censored varying-coefficient models. A residual-based bootstrap procedure is employed to derive the p-value of the test. The performance of the test is examined by extensive simulations. The simulation results show that the bootstrap estimate of the null distribution of the test statistic is approximately valid and the test method with the residual-based bootstrap works satisfactorily for at least moderate censoring rates of the response. Furthermore, the proposed test is applied to the Stanford heart transplant data for exploring a linear regression relationship between the logrithm of the survival time and the age of the patients.     

Detection and estimation of structural change in heavy-tailed sequence

In this paper, bootstrap detection and ratio estimation are proposed to analysis mean change in heavy-tailed distribution. First, the test statistic is constructed into a ratio form on the CUSUM process. Then, the asymptotic distribution of test statistic is obtained and the consistency of the test is proved. To solve the problem that the null distribution of the test statistic contains unknown tail index, we present a bootstrap approximation method to determine the critical values of the null distribution. We also discuss how to estimate change point based on ratio method. The consistency and rate of convergence for the change-point estimator are established. Finally, the excellent performance of our method is demonstrated through simulations using artificial and real data sets. Especially the simulation results of bootstrap test are better than those of another existing method.     

Testing a linear relationship in varying coefficient spatial autoregressive models

In this article, we propose a test to check a linear relationship in varying coefficient spatial autoregressive models, in which a residual-based bootstrap procedure is suggested to approximate the null distribution of the resulting test statistic. We conduct simulation studies to assess the performance of the test, including the validity of the bootstrap approximation to the null distribution of the test statistic and the power of the test. The simulation results demonstrate that the residual-based bootstrap procedure gives very accurate estimate of the null distribution of the test statistic and the test is of satisfactory power. Furthermore, a real example is given to demonstrate the application of the proposed test.     

A NONPARAMETRIC TEST OF SYMMETRY VERSUS ASYMMETRY FOR RANKED-SET SAMPLES

This paper introduces a nonparametric test of symmetry for ranked-set samples to test the asymmetry of the underlying distribution. The test statistic is constructed from the Cramér-von Mises distance function which measures the distance between two probability models. The null distribution of the test statistic is established by constructing symmetric bootstrap samples from a given ranked-set sample. It is shown that the type I error probabilities are stable across all practical symmetric distributions and the test has high power for asymmetric distributions.     

A bootstrap test for time series linearity

A bootstrap algorithm is proposed for testing Gaussianity and linearity in stationary time series, and consistency of the relevant bootstrap approximations is proven rigorously for the first time. Subba Rao and Gabr (1980) and Hinich (1982) have formulated some well-known nonparametric tests for Gaussianity and linearity based on the asymptotic distribution of the normalized bispectrum. The proposed bootstrap procedure gives an alternative way to approximate the finite-sample null distribution of such test statistics. We revisit a modified form of Hinich's test utilizing kernel smoothing, and compare its performance to the bootstrap test on several simulated data sets and two real data sets—the S&P 500 returns and the quarterly US real GNP growth rate. Interestingly, Hinich's test and the proposed bootstrapped version yield substantially different results when testing Gaussianity and linearity of the GNP data.     

A bootstrap test for single index models

Single index models are frequently used in econometrics and biometrics. Logit and Probit models arc special cases with fixed link functions. In this paper we consider a bootstrap specification test that detects nonparametric deviations of the link function. The bootstrap is used with the aim to rind a more accurate distribution under the null than the normal approximation. We prove that the statistic and its bootstrapped version have the same asymptotic distribution. In a simulation study we show that the bootstrap is able to capture the negative bias and the skewness of the test statistic. It yields better approximations to the true critical values and consequently it has a more accurate level than the normal approximation.     

Bootstrapping Noncausal Autoregressions: With Applications to Explosive Bubble Modeling

In this article, we develop new bootstrap-based inference for noncausal autoregressions with heavy-tailed innovations. This class of models is widely used for modeling bubbles and explosive dynamics in economic and financial time series. In the noncausal, heavy-tail framework, a major drawback of asymptotic inference is that it is not feasible in practice as the relevant limiting distributions depend crucially on the (unknown) decay rate of the tails of the distribution of the innovations. In addition, even in the unrealistic case where the tail behavior is known, asymptotic inference may suffer from small-sample issues. To overcome these difficulties, we propose bootstrap inference procedures using parameter estimates obtained with the null hypothesis imposed (the so-called restricted bootstrap). We discuss three different choices of bootstrap innovations: wild bootstrap, based on Rademacher errors; permutation bootstrap; a combination of the two (“permutation wild bootstrap”). Crucially, implementation of these bootstraps do not require any a priori knowledge about the distribution of the innovations, such as the tail index or the convergence rates of the estimators. We establish sufficient conditions ensuring that, under the null hypothesis, the bootstrap statistics estimate consistently particular conditionaldistributions of the original statistics. In particular, we show that validity of the permutation bootstrap holds without any restrictions on the distribution of the innovations, while the permutation wild and the standard wild bootstraps require further assumptions such as symmetry of the innovation distribution. Extensive Monte Carlo simulations show that the finite sample performance of the proposed bootstrap tests is exceptionally good, both in terms of size and of empirical rejection probabilities under the alternative hypothesis. We conclude by applying the proposed bootstrap inference to Bitcoin/USD exchange rates and to crude oil price data. We find that indeed noncausal models with heavy-tailed innovations are able to fit the data, also in periods of bubble dynamics. Supplementary materials for this article are available online.     

A general bootstrap algorithm for hypothesis testing

The bootstrap is a intensive computer-based method originally mainly devoted to estimate the standard deviations, confidence intervals and bias of the studied statistic. This technique is useful in a wide variety of statistical procedures, however, its use for hypothesis testing, when the data structure is complex, is not straightforward and each case must be particularly treated. A general bootstrap method for hypothesis testing is studied. The considered method preserves the data structure of each group independently and the null hypothesis is only used in order to compute the bootstrap statistic values (not at the resampling, as usual). The asymptotic distribution is developed and several case studies are discussed.     

A Class of Goodness-of-fit Tests Based on Transformation

There is an increasing number of goodness-of-fit tests whose test statistics measure deviations between the empirical characteristic function and an estimated characteristic function of the distribution in the null hypothesis. With the aim of overcoming certain computational difficulties with the calculation of some of these test statistics, a transformation of the data is considered. To apply such a transformation, the data are assumed to be continuous with arbitrary dimension, but we also provide a modification for discrete random vectors. Practical considerations leading to analytic formulas for the test statistics are studied, as well as theoretical properties such as the asymptotic null distribution, validity of the corresponding bootstrap approximation, and consistency of the test against fixed alternatives. Five applications are provided in order to illustrate the theory. These applications also include numerical comparison with other existing techniques for testing goodness-of-fit.     

Bootstrap LR tests of stationarity,common trends and cointegration

This paper considers the likelihood ratio (LR) tests of stationarity, common trends and cointegration for multivariate time series. As the distribution of these tests is not known, a bootstrap version is proposed via a state- space representation. The bootstrap samples are obtained from the Kalman filter innovations under the null hypothesis. Monte Carlo simulations for the Gaussian univariate random walk plus noise model show that the bootstrap LR test achieves higher power for medium-sized deviations from the null hypothesis than a locally optimal and one-sided Lagrange Multiplier (LM) test that has a known asymptotic distribution. The power gains of the bootstrap LR test are significantly larger for testing the hypothesis of common trends and cointegration in multivariate time series, as the alternative asymptotic procedure – obtained as an extension of the LM test of stationarity – does not possess properties of optimality. Finally, it is shown that the (pseudo-)LR tests maintain good size and power properties also for the non-Gaussian series. An empirical illustration is provided.