Country preferences,currency values and policy issues

The paper sketches an approach to exchange rate modeling that links currency values to the prospective income streams associated with claims on physical capital in different countries. This framework represents an alternative to general equilibrium models in which asset preferences are derived essentially from the use of different transactions currencies in different countries. The new framework provides perspectives on: the safe-haven phenomenon; the role for monetary policy and the debate over fixed versus flexible exchange rates; the effectiveness of exchange market intervention; and the dual nature of policies toward capital flows and policies toward tradable goods industries.     

Policy modeling of foreign exchange rates

This paper is neither a complete survey of empirical work on exchange rate determination, nor a review of the ballooning volume of theoretical models. It is instead an attempt to classify the main alternative approaches to modeling exchange rates. I shall concentrate on approaches that can be used to assess the effects of alternative policies. There will be four further sections in the paper. The first three sections will each deal withthe structure, empirical support, and policy consequences of three main types of model: purchasing power parity models emphasizing the close and immediate relation of goods markets; interest rate parity models emphasizing the close and immediate international linkage of markets for financial assets; and structural balance-of-payments models that do not assume either of the above linkages to be so strong and immediate as to eliminate the other, and that hence require separate (but interdependent) modeling of trade and capital linkages in the determination of exchange rates. Each of these main categories has many rather distinct models within it, and some models are not easily classified into one of the three categories; I hope that the three-way split will nevertheless serve to make some distinctions that are important for policy modeling.In the final section I shall try to summarize the available model results that pertain to national and international policy choices under a system of more flexible exchange rates, and then to suggest where more or better model building might usefully increase the amount of information available to guide policy decisions.     

Central bank credibility and monetary policy in Indonesia

This paper examines the role of central bank credibility in achieving an inflation target and proposes monetary policy rules for Indonesia. Towards that end, we construct and estimate a forward-looking small scale macroeconomic model (SSMM) of the Indonesian economy by adapting the theoretical underpinnings of the well-known Batini–Haldane model, along with the Taylor policy rule. Our results indicate that it is crucial for the Indonesian central bank to bolster its credibility in order to achieve a lower inflation rate. The inflation–output volatility trade-off frontier we derived from the SSMM shows that a monetary policy rule that targets both inflation and output gaps will result in less macroeconomic volatility. We also found that the inclusion of the exchange rate into the rule as an additional feedback variable warrants consideration in the future course of monetary policy management.     

Macroeconomic adjustment in Thailand: Demand management and supply conditions

Within the framework of a four-sector macroeconomic model for Thailand, comparative statics are used to assess alternative ways of macroeconomic adjustment. Fiscal policy interventions, manipulations of the exchange rate, and productivity improvements are discussed. Their implications in terms of income generation, external deficit, and inflation are derived. It is shown that only productivity improvements have positive effects on all indicators. Fiscal interventions lead to an improvement in the external deficit, but at the cost of income generation. The outcome of a devaluation is largely dependent on the behavior of factor prices.     

Preferences of the Central Bank of Brazil under the inflation targeting regime: Estimation using a DSGE model for a small open economy

The main objective of this paper is to estimate the preferences of the Central Bank of Brazil after the inflation targeting regime (January 2000 to December 2013), using a DSGE model with microeconomic foundations for a small open economy, based especially on the work of Kam et al. (2009). The model used in this study considers that the Central Bank minimizes a loss function, taking into account the deviation of inflation from its target, output stabilization, the interest rate smoothing and, unlike the previous works, the exchange rate. The results show that the major concern of the monetary authority in the period was the stabilization of inflation, followed by interest rate smoothing, exchange stabilization and, finally, output stabilization. The large value for the exchange rate smoothing parameter suggests the presence of fear of floating in the Brazilian case. An improved inflation targeting strategy should allow for less Central Bank intervention in the exchange rate market.     

汇率制度退出与转型：文献综述

如何退出已有汇率制度安排，向更具弹性的汇率制度转型？这是当前新兴市场和发展中国家面临的一个重要问题。在维持已有制度的边际成本与边际收益一致时退出已有汇率制度是最优的。最佳退出时机的经验判断原则取决于该国的经济结构、经济发展阶段、经济冲击、政治与制度因素等。这些因素同时也决定了该国汇率制度退出和转型的策略选择。汇率制度转型所需的基本条件是：一个具有一定深度和一定流动性的外汇市场，一套连贯的中央银行外汇市场干预的政策措施，一个恰当的名义锚，监测和管理公共部门和私人部门外汇风险暴露的有效机制。     

Monetary policy and its transmission mechanisms in Eritrea

The main purpose of this study is to identify the best practices of monetary policy implementation in the Eritrean economy. As such, the paper examines what kind of monetary policy and transmission mechanisms are relevant to the Eritrean economy. It also addresses which channels are effective and which are not and why. Vector Autoregressive modelling is employed over the study period 1996Q1–2008Q4. This paper addresses the argument that the bank lending is the sole functioning channel in low income economies. We find that interest rate and official exchange rate channels are inoperative. However, effective exchange rate and credit channels exist through the black foreign exchange market and credit issued to the government sector. The main policy implication of this study is that the Bank of Eritrea might be able to control inflation through manipulating the reserve requirement ratio.     

The nexus between income distribution,trade policy,and monopoly power: An assessment of the tin market

The article suggests a manner in which degrees of monopoly power can be introduced into a trade policy model of the computable general equilibrium type. The distributional effects of tariffs and subsidies are compared, first under competitive conditions and then under conditions of monopoly power.The tin market, for which Malaysia can be assumed to exert monopoly power, is used as an example to show the distributional consequences of applying a competitive model in cases where a model allowing for monopoly power would have been more appropriate. The existence of monopoly power is shown to have important distributional effects. Policy modelers, dealing with distributional issues, should therefore be careful about the assumptions made about market forms.     

A model of the Canadian global exchange rate: A test of the 1970s

A review of the literature indicates that no single exchange rate model has been able to track successfully the movements of the Canadian dollar for both the 1970–1976 period and the period thereafter. The purchasing power parity model, irrespective of whether based on relative wholesale prices, unit labor costs, GNP deflators, or export prices performs very poorly; the monetarist models collapse because of their strict adherence to the purchasing power parity and interest rate parity assumptions; the portfolio demand models require a significant adjustment for the post-1976 period. This paper presents a medium-term eclectic model of the global exchange rate of the Canadian dollar and examines a spectrum of broad issues that reflect on the efficiency of the foreign exchange market of Canada. These issues are basically related to the interest parity assumption, the role of speculation, and the test of rational expectations. The global exchange rate is defined as the value of the Canadian dollar measured in terms of a unit of basket of currencies comprising currencies of France, West Germany, Japan, the U.K., and the USA. The model belongs to the same genre of balance of payments structural models that explain the exchange rates by balancing demand and supply of foreign currencies. The model simultaneously explains both spot and forward rates, and it has been estimated and tested by using the quarterly data for 1971–1981.     

A model of the Canadian global exchange rate: A test of the 1970s

This comment points out some methodological weaknesses in the Canadian global exchange rate model and the associated efficiency tests of Marwah and Bodkin. The model is found to be inadequate for policy analysis.     

How do countries choose their monetary policy frameworks?

This paper investigates the determinants of countries’ choices of monetary policy framework. A brief narrative focused on groupings of countries motivates an econometric analysis which draws on previous work on the determinants of exchange rate regimes, bringing in standard factors as well as the trade networks of potential anchor currency blocs and the financial market depth that are emphasised in the narrative. The model turns out to be able to predict three quarters of countries’ choices, and there is no obvious systematic pattern in the errors. The results have important implications for how countries should choose their monetary policy frameworks.     

Central banks’ priorities and the left/right partisanship of exchange rates

This study argues that when central banks subordinate all policy goals to achieving price stability greater central bank independence encourages left-wing governments to seek greater exchange rate stability. Such central bank policy priorities make the Left's preferred distributive policies more dependent on the effectiveness of fiscal policy, which under high capital mobility increases with exchange rate stability. In contrast, right-wing governments put greater emphasis on market adjustments and price stability. Hypotheses are tested by estimating the sensitivity of exchange rate variation to partisanship, central bank independence, and the salience of price stability, using a Prais-Winsten estimator and Instrumented Variables, run on pooled cross-section time-series data from 22 OECD countries during 1990-2004.     

Exchange rate and wage policies in Central and Eastern Europe

After the eastern enlargement of the European Union (EU) and due to increasing labor market integration, wage determination in Central and Eastern Europe (CEE) has become a key issue in European economic policy making. In addition, a controversial discussion concerning the monetary integration of CEE countries into the EMU has emerged. Both issues have earned particular academic and political interest because Eastern and Western Europe are at different stages of economic development and volatile international capital flows seem to require either a higher degree of wage or exchange rate flexibility. Based on the Scandinavian model of wage adjustment by Lindbeck (1979), we analyze the role of exchange rates in the wage determination process of the Central and Eastern European countries to identify which exchange rate strategy contributes to faster wage convergence in Europe. Panel estimations suggest that workers in countries with fixed exchange rates are likely to benefit in the long run from higher wage increases.     

Exchange rate policies simulated by means of a disequilibrium model of the Finnish economy

In this paper a model for the Finnish economy with disequilibrium in the goods and financial markets is specified and estimated by single equation methods. The transmission mechanisms of the model are studied in the framework of various devaluation simulations. The model is very sensitive, especially with respect to the prevailing credit market regime and possible regime changes. Policy effects are not so much affected by conditions in the goods market, assuming moderate policy shocks. These considerations suggest the importance in policy planning of identifying the regimes prevailing in the markets.     

Inflation targeting and the exchange rate: Does it matter in Turkey?

This paper investigates the monetary policy reaction functions of the Central Bank of Republic of Turkey (CBRT) over the periods 1987:01–2001:12 and 2002:01–2009:05. We specifically attempt to shed light on question to what extent exchange rate developments still continue to influence monetary policy, even under inflation targeting. This study seeks to investigate how the monetary policy responded to the exchange rate shocks before and after adoption of inflation targeting regime. How large the effect of exchange rate shocks is accounted for in forecast error variances decompositions for monetary policy as compared to other shocks? Using the VAR model, this study shows that there has been strong pass-through during whole period. Moreover, in the postcrisis period, exchange rate has been the main reaction variable for the CBRT.     

Stabilization policies in the Greek economy: Will they work?

This paper develops and estimates a short-run model for the interaction between money, output, prices, international reserves, and the exchange rate in a managed floating system in Greece. The framework presented, which is in the spirit of the monetary approach modified to allow for adjustment lags in output and prices incorporates a policy reaction function for domestic credit. The role of inflationary expectations is taken into account. The policy question addressed in the paper by means of the model is whether current economic policies are sustainable and whether stabilization measures leading to lower inflation and smaller fiscal deficits should be pursued.     

Zero Lower Bound and negative interest rates: Choices for monetary policy in the UK

There have been relatively few analyses of the policy context and consequences of a Zero Lower Bound (ZLB) for nominal interest rates. This paper sets out monetary policy alternatives, including negative interest rates, a revision of the inflation target, and rendering unconventional policy instruments such as QE conventional (permanent). Following extensive discussion of policy options, we set out a model that explores the impacts of the real policy rate on economic growth, employment and inflation, with particular attention to the British economy. We use a Time-Varying Structural Vector Auto-regressive (TVSVAR) Model where the sources of time variation are both the coefficients and variance–covariance matrix of the innovations. It was found that real rates have significant implications for real growth, the labour market and price stability even when monetary policy was constrained at the ZLB in nominal terms. The study additionally applies a discrete break in the data to focus on the Post-Global Financial Crisis and ZLB period. This indicates that the effectiveness of real rates did not diminish and this has important implications in terms of a policy approach which seeks to exploit real negative rates.     

The evolution of family policy in South Korea: From Confucian familism to Neo‐familism

The aim of this article is to trace the trajectory of family policy development in South Korea from the 1940s to the present. Changes to family intervention are analyzed in terms of the settings of policy instruments, the policy instruments themselves, and policy goals (or policy regimes). Consequently, two critical turning points are identified: the late 1980s and the early 2000s. The first period (1945–1988) was an era of embryonic Korean family policy when family intervention was limited and indirect based on Confucian familism. During the second period (1998–2003), explicit family policies emerged, but the Korean government kept family intervention to a minimum; maintained a division of roles between the state, the market, and families (the state as the regulator and the market/families as the providers); and maintained patriarchal family relations and gendered family roles based on Confucian familism. However, the third period (2003–2016) shows the explosive expansion of family policies and changes in policy goals and regimes based on Neo‐familism, which emphasizes democratic and equal gender relations within families and a family‐friendly/supportive society.     

Malaysia's outward FDI: The effects of market size and government policy

This paper extends the empirical literature of Malaysia's outward FDI (OFDI) by considering the impact of foreign market size and home international reserves using multivariate cointegration and error-correction modeling techniques. The empirical results reveal that there is a positive long-run relationship between Malaysia's OFDI and its key determinants, viz. foreign market size, real effective exchange rate, international reserves and trade openness. The main findings suggest that apart from the market-seeking incentive and the adoption of outward-oriented policies, the Malaysian government could also encourage OFDI by implementing liberal policy on capital outflows. On the basis of these findings, we draw some policy implications for the country's economic development and the internationalization of Malaysian firms in the era of globalization.