Welfare effects of demand management policies: Impact multipliers under alternative model structures

This paper explores the sensitivity of multiplier estimates under three alternative assumptions about factor supply. For this purpose, we have used a general equilibrium model of Malaysia which allows endogenous determination of factor and output prices and which permits substitution in both production and demand in response to price. The structure of the model and three alternative factor supply assumptions under which the model can be solved are described. These alternative assumptions amount to alternative “closure rules.” The results of a general increase in demand as estimated under each of the alternative closures are then presented. Finally, we examine the results of two specific types of demand increase under each of the closure rules, focusing especially upon welfare related variables such as real household consumption levels.     

The nexus between income distribution,trade policy,and monopoly power: An assessment of the tin market

The article suggests a manner in which degrees of monopoly power can be introduced into a trade policy model of the computable general equilibrium type. The distributional effects of tariffs and subsidies are compared, first under competitive conditions and then under conditions of monopoly power.The tin market, for which Malaysia can be assumed to exert monopoly power, is used as an example to show the distributional consequences of applying a competitive model in cases where a model allowing for monopoly power would have been more appropriate. The existence of monopoly power is shown to have important distributional effects. Policy modelers, dealing with distributional issues, should therefore be careful about the assumptions made about market forms.     

Identifying endogenous fiscal policy rules for macroeconomic models

The forecast and policy simulations based on macroeconomic models are used in many instances as an important input into policy decision-making. In this paper, we present a model-based method for identifying fiscal closure rules in stochastic macroeconomic models. The methodology is based on the stability analysis of the model at hand, with an endogenous derivation of a reaction on the part of the fiscal authority to state variables in the model. The rule achieves the dual aim of imposing solvency on the fiscal sector and generating a state-contingent dynamic adjustment in a framework consistent with the properties of the model. The approach differs from the standard practice of deriving fiscal closure rules in large macroeconomic forecasting models in both its derivation and implementation. An example of the endogenously derived rule, including some illustrative results, is provided using a small calibrated macro model     

Who benefits from the adjustment process in developing countries? A test on India,Kenya, and Turkey

This paper employs country-specific multisectoral general equilibrium models of Turkey, Kenya, and India to study the adjustment problems confronting these countries. The effects of liberal and interventionist policies on GDP and on incomes of different classes are analyzed. The results show that liberal policies minimize the GDP losse that both capitalists and farmers are relatively better off under these policies, while industrial persons experience reduced welfare.     

残障者的制度与生活：从“个人模式”到“普同模式”

近20年来,中国的残障者数量骤然增加,相关的专业化社会服务也随之兴起,但对残障问题的社会学研究却依然滞后。本文主要通过考察现代英美社会在残障问题上的研究历程,集中探讨残障者的制度与生活变迁,反思面向个体援助的福利框架和重视治疗的“医疗模式”,基于对残障观念从“社会模式”到“普同模式”的转变进程的理解,揭示障碍研究的主要问题。在这一演进过程中,社会模式与普同模式批判“健全者中心主义”的制度建构,逐渐确立起残障者作为生活主体的理念,并试图通过连带普通人的障碍体验为策略,汇聚成制度改革的合力。障碍研究的推进,提示了各类模式,引发了诸种思潮,试图改变制度、改造社会,并转变人观。理解这一社会历史进程可以为中国应对残障问题以及化解老龄化所带来的诸多社会问题提供重要的启示。     

Business reform outcomes: Why so different?

Post-crisis policy making increasingly focuses on doing business reforms. We argue that the effects of those reforms will be different across countries. To understand the reasons for the reform outcome divergence, we advance a novel firm-size distribution (FSDs) argument. At the center of the argument is the fact that FSDs are different across countries and stable over time. Then, if a given doing business reform induces firms of different size to grow differently, this will produce a variety of reform outcomes across countries. To advance the argument, we set up a tractable general equilibrium (GE) model and study how firms of different size grow after a doing business reform. The model predicts that larger firms will grow faster than smaller firms after the reform. The model predictions are tested on the Enterprise Surveys (ES) data, merged with the Doing Business indicators. We confirm that firms of different size grow differently after a Doing Business reform. Thus, based on the notable differences of firm size distributions across countries, identical reforms to start, operate and close a business will produce a variety of reform outcomes across countries.     

The potential impact of introducing a social security system in the State of Palestine: A computable general equilibrium approach

This article assesses the potential impact for the State of Palestine (West Bank and Gaza) of enforcing the enactment of the currently suspended Social Security Law (No. 19 of 2016). Using a computable general equilibrium model, we simulate different scenarios associated with the enactment of the social security system on key macroeconomic variables, such as GDP, private consumption, government spending, investment and employment, for the period 2020–2030. We evaluate the influence on the economy of introducing a social security system for private-sector workers, as set out in the 2016 law, and compare the simulation results of each scenario to the baseline. In each scenario, we consider different options concerning severance payment duration and different options for the investment strategy of social security contributions. However, for employees in Gaza, the article does not consider severance payments due to economic difficulties and the Israeli closure policy.     

A model for the coordination of recovery policies in the OECD region

The paper presents a world econometric model of the LINK type, which is then applied to the study of the recovery prospects of the OECD economies. Specifically, several policy packages coordinated at the international level are assessed for the period 1978–1980.The model includes country specific macroeconomic structures for eight developed economies, and different type structures for five additional developing countries. The obvious policy and behavioral differences that exist between these two groups of countries are highlighted through the specification, in one case, of demand-oriented Keynessian models able to capture short-term cyclical phenomena. The supply orientation with several resource gaps (savings, foreign exchange, etc.) prevails for the developing economies. The two sections after the introduction review broadly the main modeling features of the project, including the international comparison of structural parameters. In the following sections several policy experiments are attempted. The underlying behavioral assumptions stress the community of interest that prevails among OECD economies. These experiments consider the case of stimulative policies adopted in (1) the United States alone, (2) three engine countries (United States, Federal Republic of Germany, and Japan), and (3) several developed countries that are part of the OECD system. Other experiments assume additional policy packages to correct present current account imbalances. The general conclusion of the study is that the prospects for economic recovery in the OECD area depend to a crucial extent on the ability of the member countries to agree on policies able to make the major economic indicators of each economy converge toward levels that are domestically manageable and mutually supporting.     

Partial vs. general equilibrium analysis and choice of functional form: Implications for policy modeling

In formulating empirically tractable, economywide models, researchers are often forced to employ “convenient” functional forms. These forms embody restrictive maintained hypotheses. Alternatively, flexible functional forms may be utilized in a partial equilibrium setting. Estimation and incorporation of flexible functions into computable general equilibrium models is considerably more demanding of research resources. Assuming that shortcuts will continue to be necessary for researchers attempting to respond to current policy problems, this paper compares these two alternatives. Specifically, a general equilibrium model for New York State is employed to evaluate the relative performances of flexible partial equilibrium models and their more restrictive, general equilibrium counterpart. In the particular application considered, the former approach is found to dominate the latter.     

The notion of character friendship and the cultivation of virtue

Most theories about virtue cultivation fall under the general umbrella of the role model approach, according to which virtue is acquired by emulating role models, and where those role models are usually conceived of as superior in some relevant respect to the learners. I argue that although we need role models to cultivate virtue, we also need good and close relationships with people who are not our superiors. The overemphasis on role models is misguided and misleading, and a good antidote draws on the Aristotelian concept of character friendship. Character friendship (a) constitutes a unique form of experience in which we share a substantial way of seeing with a close other; (b) facilitates a unique form of knowledge, the knowledge of a particular person (my‐self and the other's self); (c) develops other emotions important for virtue cultivation besides admiration, such as love, shame, trust, and hope; and (d) is a praxis in which cooperative interactions and discussions function as a bridge between habituation of virtue at home and the public life. Character friendship provides necessary elements for human cultivation of virtue that the sole experience of having a role model does not.     

市场化、政治价值观与中国居民的政府信任

本文利用CGSS2010的数据，考察市场化背景下中国居民政治价值观的变化及其对政府信任的影响。研究发现：第一，随着市场化的推进，居民权威主义的政治价值观明显趋于弱化，但民主主义的政治价值观没有统计上的显著变化；第二，中国居民政府信任水平的东、中、西区域差异显著，市场化进程与居民政府信任水平呈线性递减关系；第三，权威主义的政治价值观对居民的政府信任水平有促进作用，但这种正向影响会随着市场化进程愈发弱化，而民主主义的政治价值观对居民的政府信任水平不具有统计上的显著影响。文章最后指出，中国居民当前的政治价值观可能正处于过渡期，这种“过渡型”政治价值观既包含对传统权威主义的高度认同，也隐含现代民主主义精神。此外，在市场化改革背景下，理性思维日益占据主导地位，因此，提升政府信任的最直接途径可能还在于提高政府工作绩效。     

Should trade barriers be phased-out slowly? A case study of North America

A dynamic computable general is developed to analyze the effects of different phase-in rates of the Canada–US and North American Free Trade Agreements on their member countries, as well as the impact on the rest of their trading partners. The model is based on intertemporal optimization behavior of households and firms with fully specified countries/regions in which all prices and quantities are endogenously determined. I show that the size and the distribution of the welfare gains from these trade agreements are quite sensitive to the speed of trade liberalization. In particular, I find as a general rule that smaller member countries are better off under a more rapid phase-out of trade barriers, while larger member countries/regions are better off under a slower phase-out.     

政治与社会——基于对《论法的精神》的诠释

本文以对孟德斯鸠思想的社会学诠释为出发点,重返《论法的精神》,借此澄清从现代政治科学到社会学的学科转换。一方面,孟德斯鸠借助对法的重新定义,将政治科学的视野拓宽到政府之下的社会,从而推动了从政治科学到社会学的过渡;另一方面,通过澄清政府的原则与民族的一般精神、风俗和礼仪的关系指出,在孟德斯鸠那里,政治并不是社会的一个子系统或附属领域,而是从政治视角出发来看的整个社会,甚至还超出了社会。借此,我们希望突破当前社会学重视社会,轻视政治的学科思维。     

试析人工神经网络运用于社会统计分析中的可能性

社会统计分析是社会研究方法中十分重要的一部分,因为定量研究所得的原始资料在经过审核、整理与汇总之后,需要进行科学系统的统计分析,才能揭示出研究资料所包含的众多信息,从而得出研究的结论。在多元统计分析方法中,研究者用得比较多的是多元线性回归分析、方差分析、log线性模型、probit模型及logistic回归分析,这些分析方法能够帮助我们对数据进行简化、对变量之间的相互依赖关系进行分析,以及根据模型进行预测。但上述方法也存在着一定的使用局限性,比如,方差分析法要假定进行均值比较的总体具有相同的方差和服从正态分布,如果不符合…     

Policy modeling of foreign exchange rates

This paper is neither a complete survey of empirical work on exchange rate determination, nor a review of the ballooning volume of theoretical models. It is instead an attempt to classify the main alternative approaches to modeling exchange rates. I shall concentrate on approaches that can be used to assess the effects of alternative policies. There will be four further sections in the paper. The first three sections will each deal withthe structure, empirical support, and policy consequences of three main types of model: purchasing power parity models emphasizing the close and immediate relation of goods markets; interest rate parity models emphasizing the close and immediate international linkage of markets for financial assets; and structural balance-of-payments models that do not assume either of the above linkages to be so strong and immediate as to eliminate the other, and that hence require separate (but interdependent) modeling of trade and capital linkages in the determination of exchange rates. Each of these main categories has many rather distinct models within it, and some models are not easily classified into one of the three categories; I hope that the three-way split will nevertheless serve to make some distinctions that are important for policy modeling.In the final section I shall try to summarize the available model results that pertain to national and international policy choices under a system of more flexible exchange rates, and then to suggest where more or better model building might usefully increase the amount of information available to guide policy decisions.     

Trade liberalization in textiles: Policy effects in an import-competing industry

I trace the dynamic impact of removal of textile quotas in the US on output, employment and plant closure in that industry. A dynamic theoretical model of firm-level decision-making is estimated with US Census manufacturing data and with industry-level demand-side data. Simulations performed with the estimated model provide a decomposition of the historical record into parts attributable to import competition, to technological progress, and to a secular real-wage increase. Plant closure and a fall in domestic prices are largely associated with technological progress, while downsizing, layoffs and reduction in domestic market share are associated with trade liberalization. The market-clearing domestic price of textiles is identified as a crucial channel in transmitting technology or import price shocks to layoffs and plant closure.     

A general model of family income distribution: Chicago and Cambridge reconciled

In the first part of the present study it is shown that the theories of personal income distribution developed in the past one hundred years are partial and incomplete even when integrated. Because they stop short of offering a promise of a general distribution theory, the second part of the study proposes a general scheme anchored upon an all-inclusive concept of both human and material capital. Prevailing inheritance models are evaluated in the third part of this study, while the basic model appears in the fourth. It is a theoretical model but is rooted in an actual economy, namely, Brazil. An emperical application of the model is given in the final section. Since income distribution involves social welfare, the study ends with a dynamic policy analysis in which optimal time paths of changes in different policy instruments are computed for the attainment of planned redistribution goals during specified time periods.     

代际流动的模式：理论理想型与中国现实

本文在疏理西方代际流动理论的基础上,提出流动模式的三种理想类型,并分析其制度条件和结构特征,希望能对当代中国社会流动的特征和趋势分析有所启发。本文认为,在不同的制度背景和社会条件下,相应的流动模式是不同的。本文提出三种理想类型对应于三种不同的社会类型,分别是（1）依据绩效原则的自由竞争模式,其特征是流动机会按个人能力和贡献分配,对应于完全市场制度的社会;（2）社会不平等结构下的家庭地位继承模式,其特征是家庭的社会经济背景对子女的地位获得有决定性的影响,社会的不平等结构因此而代代相传,如果一个社会的不平等程度越大,跨阶层流动越困难,代际的地位继承性特征越突出;（3） 国家庇护流动模式,其特征是国家通过政策和制度设计,干预社会流动进程,特定的阶层将拥有更多的流动机会、或被剥夺应有的机会。文章最后对中国改革开放后流动模式的转变和现状提出了一些基本的判断。     

中俄经济转轨比较分析

在建立市场经济体制的道路上 ,原苏联选择了以私有化和市场化为取向和目标的激进式改革模式 ,而中国选择了在坚持社会主义制度的前提下以市场经济体制置换计划经济体制的渐进式改革模式。两国改革的初始条件不同 ,转轨的取向、目标和模式、进程也不同 ,因而结果也不同。     

社会网络对生活满意度的影响研究——基于京、沪、粤三地的分析

本研究以2008年和2009年在北京市、上海市和广东省进行的“中国家庭追踪调查”的数据为基础，运用多层线性模型和协方差模型探讨了社会网络对生活满意度的影响程度。研究表明，拜年网中朋友的比例、邻里互动频率和非正式社会参与都对生活满意度有积极影响，生活满意度与拜年网规模之间则呈现出“∩”型的相关关系。协方差分析结果表明，社会网络规模的扩大、朋友比例的上升和非正式社会参与频率的增加都有助于提高个人的生活满意度，但邻里互动频率的变化对个人生活满意度的提升作用还有待进一步的研究。