Adjustment costs in labour markets and the distributional effects of trade liberalization: Analytics and calculations for Vietnam

This paper explores the implications of different labour market adjustment formulations for the analysis of trade liberalization across different sectors and households in the Vietnamese economy using computable general equilibrium (CGE) models. The model is calibrated to a model admissible Vietnamese data set for 1997.We use five different adjustment cost treatments in analyzing the effects of trade liberalization in Vietnam. We compare simulation results from each and show how different treatments can significantly affect the distributional impacts of policy reforms, such as the trade liberalization. First, labour is treated as fully mobile across all sectors in the economy. Second, the sectors of economy are broken down into the two blocks of agricultural and industrial-service sectors and labour markets are treated as segmented by sector block. No mobility of labour between blocks is allowed while labour within each sector block remains fully mobile. The third is the same as the second, but movement within each agricultural and industrial-service sector block involves transactions costs. In the fourth, mobility of workers from the agricultural to industrial-service sectors and vice versa is possible with transactions costs. Finally, we calibrate the model with unemployment but no adjustment costs for labour reallocation to explore how model results differ in terms of adjustments in the labour market and welfare effects.Our results indicate significant differences in the impacts from trade liberalization across these cases. The redistributional impact of trade liberalization is sharper against poor rural households with segmented labour markets and with transactions costs, while aggregate efficiency gains are similar to no adjustment cost analyses. The conclusion is the choice of model structure for labour markets is crucially important for the perceived distributional impacts of trade liberalization.     

Youth, unemployment and political marginalisation

The article investigates the impact of being unemployed on political marginalisation among young people. Are unemployed youth politically marginalised compared with employed youth? Is the impact of unemployment on political marginalisation related to the development of the welfare state? Based on Marshall’s concept of social citizenry, and Esping‐Andersen’s theory of decommodification politics, the impact of unemployment on political marginalisation was expected to be least in the most‐developed welfare states. In these countries, welfare policies were expected to counteract marginalisation among the unemployed. The analyses were based on the Eurobarometer survey Young Europeans from 1990. Three aspects of political marginalisation were investigated: political confidence, political interest and political extremism. Unemployed youth express less confidence in politics, they talk less about politics and they more frequently support revolutionary political ideas, compared with employed youth. The greatest difference in political confidence between unemployed and employed is found in Great Britain, while Italy represents a deviant case where the unemployed have more confidence than the employed. The development of the welfare state does not appear to be a crucial factor for political confidence among the unemployed.     

When Do Benevolent Capitalists Change Their Mind? Explaining the Retrenchment of Defined‐benefit Pensions in Britain

This paper explores the politics of welfare retrenchment, but differs from much of the current literature in this area by focusing not on the decisions of politicians but those of private sector employers. In countries with a large private welfare sector, employers are major social policy players with a significant influence on the generosity of welfare provision, but the rationale behind their actions is not well understood. To explore these issues, a case study is used of the recent fundamental change in UK occupational pension provision, involving a rapid shift from defined‐benefit to defined‐contribution pensions. The paper shows by means of a micro‐simulation of the relative performance of defined‐benefit, defined‐contribution and state pensions that this shift represents a significant retrenchment. It suggests, using historical material, interview data and insights from behavioural economics, that existing explanations for this change, while valuable, have important gaps because they are based on too narrow a conceptualization of business motives. In this regard, the paper highlights the importance of herd behaviour.     

Welfare State Developments in the Russian Federation: Oil-led Social Policy and 'The Russian Miracle'

This article investigates the main welfare state developments of the Russian Federation that have occurred since the fall of communism. It argues that the contemporary welfare expansion strictly depends on high oil and gas prices, and that this oil-led social policy makes the future of the 'Russian miracle' highly volatile. The main conclusion is that the Russian welfare state will be able to function properly and to ensure social integration and solidarity only under conditions of sustained oil-led growth. The article also identifies a variety of different, but equally important, endogenous, as well as exogenous, factors that have influenced the social policy developments in the Russian Federation since 1989. These correspond to the existence of few veto points present in the political arena, the lack of a well-structured system of interest representation, the presence of informality in the welfare state organization, but also to the presence of national economic vulnerabilities and/or strengths in the now open global economy, as well as to non-contingent decisions taken in strategic sectors of the state, such as those related to the energy or defence sectors.     

Healthcare decommodification in decentralization context: Reviewing the ideational constructions of “classless hospital policy” initiatives in Kulon Progo Regency,Indonesia

This article illustrates the emergence of radical local welfare initiatives as a political response to the imperfect national program in decentralization context in Indonesia. In order to gain further understanding of the topic, it is worth reviewing Kulon Progo Regency's experience which recently embarked on removing class stratification at any in‐patient room in all local government‐owned hospitals through “classless hospital policy” initiatives. Using exploratory case study method, this article aims to review the ideational constructions of healthcare decommodification that is displayed on this initiative. It is concluded that the classless hospital policy reflects how social citizenship was organized through the mechanism of idea contestation which originated in the past community's behavior, combined with the vested interest of political regime for then subduing market logics under state power. This circumstance ultimately has provided the groundwork for encouraging innovative welfare outcome.     

Industrial Relations as a Source of Social Policy: A Typology of the Institutional Conditions for Industrial Agreements on Social Benefits

The article's starting point is that the now‐conventional conceptualization of welfare state retrenchment as a shift from state provision of income support to market processes is misleading. Rather, state provision may be replaced by benefits negotiated collectively by trade unions and employers. As a first step to further investigate this development the article suggests a typology of institutional contexts within which industrial agreements on social benefits emerge. This typology is based on Thomas H. Marshall's distinction between political and industrial citizenship. Following the comparative method of the ‘parallel demonstration of theory’, the typology is applied to four countries where collective agreements on social benefits have recently been concluded, namely Denmark, France, the Netherlands and Germany. It is argued that, on the one hand, the state's activity or passivity in labour relations and, on the other hand, the timing of the institutionalization of political and industrial citizenship is decisive for the development of collectively negotiated benefits. The conclusion for comparative welfare state research is that, when viewing policies of welfare state retrenchment, the research should systematically include industrial relations and their historical trajectories in its frame of reference.     

The welfare state in liquidation?

This paper is about the most recent reforms of cash benefit systems and the sociopolitical debate in eight European countries. The welfare state and the social security system rank high on the political agenda. After many years of economic crisis, with increasingly widespread unemployment and changed family patterns, the welfare system that developed in most western European countries since the end of the Second World War is the focus of attention. In a world of increasing international trade, with competition from countries — in eastern Europe and Asia as well as the United States — which have not developed such comprehensive systems of social security, one of the main issues in the debate is whether western Europe can afford to maintain welfare at the existing level, or whether it is necessary to make fundamental changes. But the discussion also centres on what can be called the welfare state's own internal problems.     

Activation and Local Welfare in Italy: Trends and Issues

This article deals with the development of local welfare in Italy and is grounded on a research project focusing on activation as a main feature of change in Italian social policies. Along with decentralization processes, many Italian regions have been acting as policy laboratories, developing and testing very different approaches according to their political attitude. On the one hand this results in a fragmented policy landscape which is difficult to recompose, and, moreover, in growing inequalities in the Italian welfare system. On the other hand, it opens opportunities for experimentation on institutional and organizational structures on a regional scale, creating a variety of practices for research and policy analysis. In the article we first describe the main trends in national social policies, with a specific focus on the dynamics of change referring to activation. We will then focus on a pilot programme which is aiming at the promotion and implementation of innovative practices in health and social care services in Friuli‐Venezia Giulia, a region in which there is a significant orientation towards enhancing social citizenship and enforcing the central position of the public actor. We investigate how the dynamics of territorialization and personalization, implied by the programme, trigger specific logics and practices of activation. Finally, referring to this case study, we propose an analytical overview of some relevant issues in the development of ‘local active welfare’ in Italy.     

Winners and losers: Assessing the impact of Chinese Yuan appreciation

This study uses a computational general equilibrium model to examine the effects of the Chinese currency on the consumption, investment, trade, output, and welfare of different countries or regions. The results indicate a general decline in welfare across the globe. China is the biggest loser, with a reduction in output. Its domestic interest rate is likely to decline, leading to a potential liquidity trap. The policy implication of this research is that China should minimize changes in its currency value in the short run.     

The Multicultural Welfare State: International Experience and North American Narratives

Contemporary debates are increasingly pessimistic about the impact of ethnic diversity on support for the welfare state. A growing number of analysts argue that greater ethnic diversity in Western democracies is weakening public support for redistribution, and that this underlying tension is exacerbated by the adoption of robust multiculturalism policies. The purpose of this essay is to summarize early findings from several studies that bear on the questions at the heart of such debates. These studies analyse the implications of immigration and multiculturalism policies for the welfare state across OECD countries, and also focus more closely on the experience of two distinctively multicultural countries, the United States and Canada. The evidence points to more complex relationships than often assumed. OECD countries with large foreign‐born populations have not had more difficulty in sustaining their welfare states than other countries. The extent of change does seem to matter, however, as countries in which immigrant communities grew rapidly between 1970 and the late 1990s did experience lower rates of growth in social spending. But despite the warnings of some critics, robust multiculturalism policies do not systematically exacerbate this tension. Moreover, the United States and Canada reflect different patterns. In the US racial diversity does weaken support for redistribution; but Canadian experience suggests that immigration, multiculturalism policies and redistribution can represent a stable political equilibrium. These contrasting narratives from North America stand as a warning against premature conclusions based on the US experience alone. There is no inevitability at work, and policy choices do seem to matter.     

From reforms to rationing? Current allocative trends in social services in Sweden

In Sweden, the current national deficit is putting immense pressure on all government spending. Economic recession and increased levels of unemployment have jointly altered the image of the welfare state and redirected focus on it as a financial burden. A matter of considerable political and public concern is the consequences of the economic constraints on social services - the part of the welfare programs carried out by local authorities. This article raises concerns of resource allocation, starting from an outline of the impact of economic developments on different sectors of the social services. Expenditure for elderly care, child care and individual and family care is analyzed in the light of demographic changes and coverage rates. A main focus is put on the most recent development and the perceivable strategies for managing the financial cut-backs are discussed in detail. Two strategies stand out as central. One is dilution, which is granting help to an unchanged number or proportion of people granted help, combined with a decreased level or altered quality of the service provided. The other is focusing, where eligibility is defined more narrowly and in the normal case results in a consistent or even improved level of service to the most needy. Dilution seems to be the major strategy for child care and focusing the allocative trend in services for elderly people.     

The effects of free trade areas on non-members: Modelling Kemp–Vanek admissibility

A multi-sector multi-country Numerical General Equilibrium model is used to endogenously determine the trade taxes that FTA members need to charge on non-member trade so that after the FTA is formed, FTA-member trade volumes with non-members remain at their pre-FTA level. We apply the notion of Kemp–Vanek admissibility in McMillan [McMillan, J. (1993), Does regional integration foster open trade? Economic theory and GATT's Article XXIV” In Anderson, K. & R. Blackhurst (Eds.), Regional Integration and the Global Trading System. London: Harvester-Wheatsheaf] to construct an FTA which does not make non-members of the FTA worse off, ensuring that the FTA is necessarily a building block and not a stumbling block to global free trade. We implement the path-independent welfare decomposition in Harrison et al. [Harrison, G., Rutherford, T. & Wooton, I. (1993). An alternative welfare decomposition for customs unions. Canadian Journal of Economics, 26(4), 961–68]. Results of such experiments are relevant to the current debate under the WTO's Doha Round of trade negotiations over GATT (1994) Article XXIV which evaluates the consistency of FTAs with the WTO.     

Applied general equilibrium analysis of trade liberalisation on land-based sectors in Malaysia and Indonesia

This paper presents general equilibrium evaluations of forest sector trade for Southeast Asian exporters. The four scenarios examined range from the 1994 Uruguay Round tariff reductions to a complete liberalisation of forest and agricultural products trade. We find that simultaneous reductions in forest and agricultural sector tariffs make Indonesia and Malaysia worse off. For Indonesia, this is due to the fall in forest rent and agricultural tariff revenues. Malaysia has the highest ratio of agricultural imports to total land-based sector imports, the rise in agricultural prices thus hits Malaysian consumers the hardest.We find that terms of trade effect omitted from the partial equilibrium framework may reduce the welfare calculations for Malaysia and Indonesia in the forest sector trade by as much as 106 and 58%, respectively. This points to the importance of general equilibrium modelling in the logging industry. The same applies to other sector specific analyses where trade is concentrated between few countries.     

The effects of social and political openness on the welfare state in 18 OECD countries

Studies examining the relationship between globalisation and the welfare state tend to focus on the effects of economic dimensions of globalisation, the extent to which a country is part of the world market. Globalisation also has social and political dimensions and the effects of these on welfare states – in terms of social security transfers and generosity – are studied in this article. Data from the KOF Index of Globalisation , the OECD Historical Statistics and the Comparative Welfare Entitlements Dataset are used to analyse the effects of social and political openness on the welfare states of 18 countries of the Organisation for Economic Cooperation and Development between 1970 and 2000. The analyses show that social security transfers and generosity have increased less in countries with the highest increase in social openness and that the welfare state is not affected by political openness.     

Morality and welfare

The economic theory of utility does not take into account moral behaviour, that is behaviour in which an individual faced with two courses of action may choose the one which is less profitable to him. It is shown in this paper that the economic approach can be broadened to take such behaviour into account. The individual is considered to maximize a higher welfare function whose arguments are (a) his utility and (b) higher goods or moral value. The latter are goals which he ought to achieve. The amount of higher goods achieved depends upon his moral preference. The ranking of different acts is complete - an assumption commonly made in economics with regard to bundles of goods. In an extension of the economic model of optimization over time, the individual is considered to maximize his higher welfare over his lifetime. This may require raising his moral preference.     

The Politics of Welfare State Retrenchment: A Literature Review

Welfare state retrenchment is widely seen as a highly unpopular endeavour and, therefore, as politically difficult to pursue. This assumption has underpinned most of the political science research on this issue, notably Paul Pierson's seminal contributions about the ‘new politics of the welfare state’. Yet, the question remains why and under what circumstances cutbacks take place in highly developed welfare states despite these formidable political obstacles. This article reviews the literature on the politics of retrenchment, namely on the impact of socio‐economic problem pressure, political parties, political institutions, welfare state structures and ideas. Most authors agree that socio‐economic problems – particularly domestic problems – contribute to an atmosphere of ‘permanent austerity’ which inspires cutbacks. Moreover, according to most scholars, the extent of retrenchment possible depends on the specific institutional configuration of a political system and the path dependence of existing welfare state structures. The debate on the relevance of political parties and ideas, by contrast, is still far from settled. Further unresolved issues include the nature of the dependent variable in retrenchment studies. Also, the exact motives for cutbacks are theoretically still little understood, as are the political mechanisms through which they are realized. I argue that, because of the nature of these persisting issues, the pluralistic dialogue between different methods and approaches – as well as their combination – remains the most promising way forward in the study of welfare state politics.     

‘Best of Both Worlds’? A Comparison of Third Sector Providers in Health Care and Welfare‐to‐Work Markets in Britain

This article compares the welfare markets in primary health care and ‘welfare‐to‐work’ in the UK since the late 1990s. A longitudinal comparison of two different policy areas enables us to study the context in which marketization and the resulting shift of welfare provision takes place. We outline the general background of the market‐based reforms and highlight in what way policymakers have ascribed third sector organizations (TSOs) a number of positive characteristics, particularly the ability to address concerns about well‐known market failures. While consecutive governments promoted these organizations as welfare providers, case studies of two illustrative provider organizations in each policy area reveal a number of problems regarding their distinctiveness in increasingly competitive welfare markets. We conclude that the crisp distinction made by policymakers between the third and other sectors as well as the alleged advantages of the former present a rather naïve picture of a complex reality and argue for a more critical view of third sector characteristics and performance. The third sector is not only characterized by a high degree of fuzziness at the boundaries to other sectors, but even within single organizations, which often undergo significant transformations over time. As a result, policy intentions and practical outcomes are contradictory with TSOs losing their alleged distinctiveness as players in increasingly competitive markets. Furthermore, we contend that detailed longitudinal studies of organizations are essential in the advancement of the discussion of the third sector concept as they provide conceptual insights into organizational change and behaviour.     

Gendered Pathways to the Political: The Political Participation of Women Factory Workers in Mexico*

Objectives. The objective of this article is to analyze the mobilization factors available within and without international factories that do and do not contribute to political participation of employees, hypothesizing that the quantity, type, and causal linkages will vary by gender. Methods. Using original survey data of factory employees (N=402) in multiple sectors and regions in Mexico, I test common explanations as to how the factory experience stimulates and stifles the political participation of women employees, exploring whether the causal linkages between the workplace and political engagement are the same for women and men. Results. Contrary to some of the recent research that reveals men to be more politically engaged than women in the Mexican population overall, my data show that among factory workers there is rough parity between men's and women's levels of political engagement. A distinction of note, controlling for other variables, female employees are more likely than male employees to engage in informal political activities. Conclusion. The international factory experience appears to have a limited “egalitarian” effect. The distribution of factors leading to political mobilization for women and men is not equal, yet women are able to translate a distinct set of factors into participation.     

'From Exchange It Comes to Tears'. A Dutch 'Folk Theorem' Reconsidered

A Dutch 'folk theorem' holds that 'from exchange it comes to tears'. This seems to contradict the basic idea found in economics that exchange and trade can make both sides better off. We show that the 'folk theorem' has a better theoretical foundation than sometimes thought, as it is vindicated by the equilibrium of an exchange game with two-sided asymmetric information. We, then, explain the practical value of such 'folk wisdom' in the real world by showing why players might be unlikely to learn such an equilibrium strategy.     

加快发展南宁市服务贸易的对策研究

服务贸易发展水平是衡量一国对外贸易以及国民经济实力的重要标志。发展服务贸易是提高南宁参与国际分工和竞争能力的新举措。南宁市加快发展服务贸易应从战略着眼,促进重点行业服务贸易发展,扩大服务贸易能量。