The population and economic issues in West Asia after WW II]

Using statistical data, this report analyzes population and economic issues in West Asia after World War II. The high rate of development as witnessed in West Asian countries after their gaining of political independence following World War II was accompained by an accelerated population growth. This population growth spead unevenly among different areas. Based on surveys of 17 countries in West Asia, the socioeconomic development and rapid rate of population growth have largely affected the population age, sex, urban and rural residential, and economic sector employment structures. With the help of indicators and mathematical methods to plot population development, these countries can be divided into 3 categories based on population development features. The semiindustrial countries demonstrate a gradually slowing population growth rate, most of these countries having experienced a peak period in the growth rate during the time of population transition. The agricultural countries show a natural population growth rate which is generally considered low. The 3rd category, the oil-producing countries, are currently experiencing a peak in population growth. In general, the popuation growth rate has dramatically accelerated in West Asia since World War II. Between 1950-1960 this rate was 2.58%; between 1960-1970, 2.75%; and between 1970-1980, 2.92%. This rate shows an increase of 6.6% between 1950-1960 and 6.2% between 1960-1970. It surpasses the average world population growth rate and most of the developing country growth rates. It has been augmented by post-World War II economic and social developments.     

Rating the Rich: An Ordinal Classification to Determine Which Rich Countries are Helping Poorer Ones the Most

When talking about poverty, a lot of energy is expended by academics and sociologists in the identification and classification of the poor. Less attention is paid to classifying the rich. The Center for Global Development created the Commitment to Development Index in 2003, which ranks countries according to their contribution to the reduction of poverty in developing countries. Since its first report, “Ranking the rich, the Index has been quite successful. However, it has also been subject to multiple criticisms. This paper proposes the use of an ordinal classification to rate, not rank, the performance of rich countries. An ordinal classification, where an ordinal scale labels the examples, can help discovering the level of each country’s commitment to development, automatically and independently from others’ performances. It could stimulate both advocacy from civil society and the determination of more coherent public policies in rich countries for poorer ones.The methodology used is Artificial Neural Networks, a common machine learning tool for successfully solving classification problems. Experiments yield robust results, showing better outcomes than other alternative ordinal classifiers, opening the possibility of developing a classification technique which could overcome the limitations of the current ranking technique.     

A trichotomic segmentation approach for estimating composite indicators

Composite indicators (CIs) are commonly used for benchmarking of countries over the years, summarizing in a single measurement, complex social, economic, environmental etc. concepts by involving several thematically related sub-indicators. When estimating  CIs and for a few specific countries, it is possible to have a strong indication and belief about their performance, prior to obtaining their scores. Based on that, a number of countries are likely to occupy the top-ranking positions; some will remain at the bottom list, while others may range in intermediate places. This initial preference information imposes a trichotomic segmentation that divides the countries under assessment into categories of superior, inferior and of ambiguous future performance. In this paper, we introduce the trichotomic segmentation as initial preference information to estimate the values of the CIs. We build on the popular Benefit of the Doubt (BoD) method with common weights and develop a two-goal linear programming model, that next to the evaluation of the common weights for the sub-indicators, estimates cut-off points for the CI values that distinguish the superior and inferior countries. The proposed model maintains the advantages of the common variable weighting and produces scores that induce better discrimination of the countries, having also a significant correlation with the original CI scores. The proposed methodology is applied to reassess the Digital Economy and the Society Index.

     

The multilevel dependence of contraceptive use on socioeconomic development and family planning program strength

Using World Fertility Survey data for 15 developing countries, we estimate an equation in which the dependent variable—whether the respondent has ever used an efficient contraceptive method—depends on the respondent’s education and location of childhood residence. All of the coefficients of this equation, including the intercept, vary over countries. Analysis based on new methodology shows that the intercept and education effects vary as a function of national family planning program efforts and that none of the parameters of the equation depend on gross national product per capita. The results demonstrate the efficacy of multilevel analysis, provide a partial test of the theory underlying the analysis, and refocus discussion of the contributions of development and policy variables to fertility reduction.     

Latin American typology: An essay on measuring social discontinuities

The aim of the article is to work out a classification of the Latin-American countries considering economic and social aspects of development. Therefore, it seemed convenient to take the following steps:

1. A critical review of the existing literature on the subject, stressing the theoretical and methodological assumptions on which these constructions are based.
2. A selection and discussion of some social indicators, in particular those usually employed for this kind of task, especially in planning.
3. An analysis of methodological procedures in order to present alternative options which could give better theoretical, methodological and technical results.
4. The classification of Latin-American countries using a quantitative technique based on the combination of a selected set of interval variables which permits the computation of a measure of the distance between cuples of countries.
5. A graphical representation of the ‘profiles’ obtained for each group of countries.
6. Variables not included in this classification and also historical dimensions are introduced in order to explain the different levels of achievement of the socioeconomic goals of the countries and regions.

The quantitative results go hand in hand with the revision of the historical process. For this reason, it seemed necessary to formulate a set of significant structural categories and some tentative hypotheses. These should be tested in more exhaustive studies if one wishes to explain the differential achievement reached by different countries in solving their social problems.     

Comparison of GDP Per Capita Data in Penn World Table and World Development Indicators

This paper compares data on GDP per capita, which is used in almost every cross-country study, from two different sources which are used by numerous researchers and other users throughout the world. The methodology consists of taking GDP per capita in international dollars for the ICP benchmark year 2005 for each country from World Development Indicators 2012 CD-ROM (WDI) and Penn World Table 7.1 (PWT), which are the current (2012) versions of these well-known sources. A similar exercise is undertaken for World Development Indicators 2011 CD-ROM and Penn World Table 7.0, which are the last versions of the data. The WDI and PWT data are also compared with the benchmark estimates from the last International Comparison Program (ICP). Huge differences are found between the two sources for numerous countries in both the current and the last versions. The number of countries for which WDI and the ICP benchmark numbers show huge differences is small, but there are many countries for which PWT and the ICP benchmark numbers show large differences. The study seems important for judging how data on this crucial variable from two most widely used sources agree or differ. The reported huge differences suggest that the users may exercise caution in drawing strong conclusions from information derived from either source, and may consider doing some sensitivity checks based on data from the other source. A simple illustration is provided to indicate how use of data from each source might affect the results.     

Data for the Sustainable Development Goals: Metrics for Evaluating Civil Registration and Vital Statistics Systems Data Relevance and Production Capacity,Illustrations with Nigeria

Three issues impinging on the potential use of Civil Registration and Vital Statistics (CRVS) data for the Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs) are analysed in the paper. These include CRVS data relevance, content and data production capacity of CRVS systems. The paper adopts a ‘data type’ approach to relevance and capacity and proposes two metrics based on a graded qualitative evaluation (GQE) methodology. One is a data-relevance metric for evaluating the relevance of CRVS data types to the SDGs. The second is a National Statistical Systems (NSS) data type production capacity metric used for evaluating the data production capacity of CRVS systems. CRVS data instrument analysis and the CRVS data production capacity are exemplified with the Nigerian CRVS system. Relevance assessment results suggest that CRVS systems can provide data relevant to 25% of the SDGs. However the SDG data contribution of CRVS depends on the ‘data type’ capacity of National CRVS systems. As the capacity assessment shows, the Nigerian CRVS system has ‘nominal’ capacity to produce all CRVS data types (fertility, mortality, migration, nuptiality and socio-economic) and ‘active’ and ‘latent’ capacities to provide data for some 21 SDG targets. However, it currently lacks ‘effective’ capacity to produce any of the data types for the SDGs. The paper has implications for goal setting and prioritization in evolving strategies to enhance the development of CRVS/NSS systems’ data capacities, especially in developing countries.     

Composite Indices of Development and Poverty: An Application to MDGs

The measurement of development or poverty as multidimensional phenomena is very difficult because there are several theoretical, methodological and empirical problems involved. The literature of composite indicators offers a wide variety of aggregation methods, all with their pros and cons. In this paper, we propose a new, alternative composite index denoted as MPI (Mazziotta-Pareto Index) which, starting from a linear aggregation, introduces penalties for the countries or geographical areas with ‘unbalanced’ values of the indicators. As an example of application of the MPI, we consider a set of indicators in order to measure the Millennium Development Goals (MDGs) and we present a comparison between HDI (Human Development Index) methodology, HPI (Human Poverty Index) methodology and MPI.     

The challenge of world health

2 development specialists have expounded on the demands world health has placed on public health. Striking declines in infant and child mortality occurred with the advent of biomedical and technical interventions in developing countries after World War II. At the same time, these interventions promoted longer lives by curing and/or treating chronic diseases in developed countries. In the 1970s, however, it was apparent that the hospital based, curative approach could not meet health needs and was very costly. In developed countries, biomedical and social sciences showed that chronic diseases did not occur due to modernization but from unhealthy behaviors, diet, and lifestyle. In fact, in 1975, the US Centers for Disease Control announced that unhealthy lifestyles contributed to 50% of all deaths while the medical system was responsible for only 11%. The US and other developed countries then began to promote healthy lifestyles, and in the 1980s, considerable improvements in health occurred, especially among adults. Developing countries which depended on the Western medical model did not experience health gains in the 1970s. Yet developing countries where health systems concentrated on carrying essential services to all people and promoted basic hygiene and sound dietary practices continued to achieve considerable health gains. In 1978, WHO an UNICEF hosted the International Conference on Primary Health Care in Alma Ata, the Soviet Union to hold these developing countries with community based health systems as models of primary health care (PHC). The 1980s witnessed the spread of PHC especially in the form of child survival which focused on oral rehydration therapy and breast feeding. The biomedical and social sciences are needed to move this health policy and program strategy forward. Governments must see to policies that promote healthy people. Political will is needed to make human welfare a high priority.     

城镇居民收入差距扩大的现状、原因及抑制对策

随着市场经济的快速发展,城镇居民家庭的收入水平有了明显提高。与此同时,也存在着居民家庭收入差距加大的突出问题。本文通过采集中国分阶层城镇居民家庭人均年收入、恩格尔系数等资料。利用洛伦茨曲线结合其它相关统计分析,揭示了收入水平的提高和差距扩大的严峻状况。并对差距扩大的历史、劳动力、经济、政策等原因进行了分析,在此基础上提出了加快经济发展,规范市场环境,落实“扩中、保低、调高”方针、取缔非法收入、加大教育投入、建立健全社会保障制度等抑制收入差距扩大的对策建议。     

Field experience in estimating population growth

This paper reports on some of the aspects of implementing the population estimation studies now being carried out-the Population Growth Estimation Study (PGE) in Pakistan, the Survey of Population Change (SPC) in Thailand, and the Demographic Survey in Turkey (TDS). The basic purpose of all these surveys is to provide reliable estimates of population growth rates for various areas within each of the countries.All the surveys under consideration are single-purpose, continuing, nation-wide studies, using fixed, area samples. The basic methodology of the studies is similar in that they aü utilize the technique of collecting data on births and deaths by two separate systems and then comparing individual events to determine whether events were recorded by both systems or only one. One list is based on periodic enumerations and the other on continuous registration.Some of the problems encountered in the various phases of the field work required to assemble the two independent lists-such as identification of enumeration units, the de facto approach vs. the de jure approach, assuring completeness of registration, and reconciliation of unmatched cases-are described and the steps taken toward their solution outlined.The author concludes that the studies are on sound methodological grounds but that their implementation, especially in developing countries, poses additional burdens.     

Levels of urbanization in the world’s countries: testing consistency of estimates based on national definitions

Estimates of urbanization levels for all countries, as published in the United Nations World Urbanization Prospects, are not comparable across countries because they are based on national definitions of urbanization, which vary greatly across countries. We construct alternative estimates of urbanization that are comparable across countries, to use these estimates to point out definitional problems or outlying countries with interesting urban characteristics. The alternative estimates are constructed using variables that are associated with urbanization, as well as a categorical variable that summarizes the urban definition used in the country. We find that among the 181 countries included in the analysis, 21 % have a restrictive definition, and 31 % a generous definition of urbanization. In 2000, the difference between the alternative estimate and the UN estimate was more than 10 % for 67 countries. An examination of six countries with surprisingly low or high reported levels of urbanization, as compared the alternative estimates, highlights issues with the plausibility of the official estimate. We conclude that comparison of urbanization estimates across countries should be treated with care, given the wide range of definitions used. To produce more informative estimates of urbanization, several countries would need to clarify or rethink their definition of urban.     

Health and economic development—evidence from the introduction of public health care

This paper investigates the causal effect of improvements in health on economic development using a long panel of European countries. Identification is based on the particular timing of the introduction of public health care systems in different countries, which is the random outcome of a political process. We document that the introduction of public health care systems had a significant immediate effect on health dynamics proxied by infant mortality and crude death rates. The findings suggest that health improvements had a positive effect on growth in income per capita and aggregate income.     

A Multidimensional Approach to Measuring Quality of Employment (QoE) Deprivation in Six Central American Countries

This paper proposes a methodology for measuring Quality of Employment (QoE) deprivation from a multidimensional perspective in six Central American countries (Costa Rica, El Salvador, Guatemala, Honduras, Nicaragua, and Panama) using a dataset specifically designed to measure employment conditions. Building on previous work on multidimensional poverty and employment indicators, the paper uses the Alkire/Foster (AF) method to construct a synthetic indicator of the QoE at an individual level. It selects four dimensions that must be considered as essential to QoE deprivation: income, job stability, job security and employment conditions. These dimensions then subdivide into several indicators, a threshold for each indicator and dimension is established before defining an overall cut-off line that allows for the calculation of composite levels of deprivation. The results generated by this indicator show that Central American countries can be divided into three distinct and robust performance groups in terms of their QoE deprivation. Overall, approximately 60% of the deprivation levels are attributable to non-income variables, such as occupational status and job tenure. The methodology used can allow policymakers to identify and focus on the most vulnerable workers in a labour market and highlights the fact that having a formal written contract is no guarantee of good job quality, particularly in the case of women.

     

Analysing the Effect of Legal System on Corporate Social Responsibility (CSR) at the Country Level,from a Multivariate Perspective

In this paper, we analyse the effect of coercive isomorphism (legal system) on Corporate Social Responsibility (CSR) at the country level by using the multivariate statistical techniques X-STATIS and HJ-biplot, which allow us to capture the role that these institutional forces play in the evolution and patterns of behaviour regarding the commitment to sustainability. The results evidence that coercive forces have an important influence on the social and environmental commitment of companies. Analysis of the legal system shows that firms located in civil law countries have a greater interest in their CSR practices and in disclosing information than companies in common law countries; the most likely companies to act in a responsible way are those operating in institutional environments with a large and developed legal system oriented towards stakeholder protection. Consequently, our results show that companies operating in countries with similar legal systems adopt homogeneous patterns of behaviour regarding the commitment to sustainability, but their degrees of development are strongly determined by the coercive institutional characteristics.     

Prosperity-Enhancing Institutions: Towards a Comprehensive Composite Index

Institutions that potentially have a positive impact on economic performance rarely exist outside of a system of institutions; rather they are embedded in the institutional order of a country. It is thus imperative to investigate the composition of such prosperity-enhancing institutional orders. This paper proposes a measurement of bundles of institutions that channel the positive effect of democratic institutions on economic prosperity. We construct composite sub-indices measuring the political, economic and societal institutional quality as well as an overall index combining these bundles of institutions. Index data is available for 148 countries between 1995 and 2010. We obtain scores summarizing the level of prosperity-enhancing institutions that the respective countries exhibit with regard to their overall institutional setting and to the three bundles of institutions, and we grade the countries accordingly. Since the indices allow for inter-temporal comparisons, we can highlight a country’s achievements in institutional development, amongst other aspects of country comparisons, and we show their value as a tool in the analysis of determinants of economic prosperity. The proposed indices are a step towards a more systematic international comparison of democratic institutional settings.     

Can fertility be estimated from current pregnancy data?

Summary This paper explores the feasibility of estimating fertility from reports on current pregnancies collected in single-round sample surveys. Data from 15 countries in the World Fertility Survey are used to evaluate the possibilities. The results indicate that neither the age pattern of fertility nor the total fertility ratio can be reliably estimated from current pregnancy data. For almost all countries, the total fertility ratio based on recent births is higher than that based on current pregnancies, even when the latter estimate is restricted to higher durations of pregnancy.     

A Human Development Index for the Dalit Child in India

There have been many attempts to measure the quality of life of society in general (such as the Human Development Index of UNDP), or of children in particular (Jordan 1993; Corrie 1994). This article constructs a Human Development Index (HDI) for the Dalit Child in India following the methodology used by UNDP (1990) to construct a human development index for the countries of the world. Dalits (also known as Untouchables, Harijans, Scheduled Castes) have and continue to be a marginalised group in India. Section 1 presents the indicators used to construct the HDI for the Dalit child in India. Section 2 presents the rationale for the choice of the indicators chosen. Section 3 presents the methodology used to construct the HDI for the Dalit child in India. Finally, Section 4 presents the relative ranking of 15 states in India based on the level of human development as reflected in the HDI constructed for the Dalit child. It also compares the HDI rankings from perspective of the Dalit Child in India with a recent HDI constructed for 17 states in India using similar indicators as UNDP (1990). The policy usefulness of this human development index for the Dalit child in India is that it could serve as an indicator of the social progress achieved in India as the country attempts to fulfill its constitutional vision of equality for all citizens.     

Development projects and involuntary population displacement: The World Bank's attempt to correct past failures

In the past, poor rural peasants have been the unintended victims of large-scale development projects in the world's developing countries. Development projects such as dam and road construction have triggered large streams of population movements within poor countries. Policy makers such as those at the World Bank have made several attempts to tackle the problems of development-based involuntary population displacements. This paper examines some of the consequences and dynamics of development induced forced migration. It discusses the World Bank's past failure to provide adequate policies that sufficiently tackle the displacement problems that were the consequences of its past projects in Africa. The Bank's new Operational Policy on Involuntary Displacement is then evaluated in a retrospective analysis of how it could have solved the population displacement problems in one of its projects, the Nangbeto Dam in Togo, West Africa. The analysis concludes that the Operational Policy could be an effective tool to tackle development induced population displacement but that it still needs a few more adjustmentsas a policy instrument.     

National indicators for health for all

This paper examines available international data relevant to the World Health Organization model of health status. It explores the possibility of constructing useful measures of health status, health policy, social and economic status, and provision of health care based on these data. A five-factor model is developed and tested empirically using World Bank statistical data from 123 countries. Two factors representing dimensions of country affluence and population density are found to explain 78 percent of the variations in the health status indicator. The countries with health status indicator levels worse than those predicted by the model are predominantly third-world countries; a majority are African. Countries with health status indicator levels better than predicted are mainly in Asia, Latin America, and Europe. Some generally accepted causal relationships were not supported by the findings in this analysis.