Composite conditional likelihood for sparse clustered data

Summary.  Sparse clustered data arise in finely stratified genetic and epidemiologic studies and pose at least two challenges to inference. First, it is difficult to model and interpret the full joint probability of dependent discrete data, which limits the utility of full likelihood methods. Second, standard methods for clustered data, such as pairwise likelihood and the generalized estimating function approach, are unsuitable when the data are sparse owing to the presence of many nuisance parameters. We present a composite conditional likelihood for use with sparse clustered data that provides valid inferences about covariate effects on both the marginal response probabilities and the intracluster pairwise association. Our primary focus is on sparse clustered binary data, in which case the method proposed utilizes doubly discordant quadruplets drawn from each stratum to conduct inference about the intracluster pairwise odds ratios.     

Modified profile likelihood estimation for the Weibull regression models in survival analysis

In this study, adjustment of profile likelihood function of parameter of interest in presence of many nuisance parameters is investigated for survival regression models. Our objective is to extend the Barndorff–Nielsen’s technique to Weibull regression models for estimation of shape parameter in presence of many nuisance and regression parameters. We conducted Monte-Carlo simulation studies and a real data analysis, all of which demonstrate and suggest that the modified profile likelihood estimators outperform the profile likelihood estimators in terms of three comparison criterion: mean squared errors, bias and standard errors.     

Bayesian Analysis in Regression Models Using Pseudo-Likelihoods

This article deals with the issue of using a suitable pseudo-likelihood, instead of an integrated likelihood, when performing Bayesian inference about a scalar parameter of interest in the presence of nuisance parameters. The proposed approach has the advantages of avoiding the elicitation on the nuisance parameters and the computation of multidimensional integrals. Moreover, it is particularly useful when it is difficult, or even impractical, to write the full likelihood function.

We focus on Bayesian inference about a scalar regression coefficient in various regression models. First, in the context of non-normal regression-scale models, we give a theroetical result showing that there is no loss of information about the parameter of interest when using a posterior distribution derived from a pseudo-likelihood instead of the correct posterior distribution. Second, we present non trivial applications with high-dimensional, or even infinite-dimensional, nuisance parameters in the context of nonlinear normal heteroscedastic regression models, and of models for binary outcomes and count data, accounting also for possibile overdispersion. In all these situtations, we show that non Bayesian methods for eliminating nuisance parameters can be usefully incorporated into a one-parameter Bayesian analysis.     

Inference for Weibull distribution based on progressively Type-II hybrid censored data

Progressive Type-II hybrid censoring is a mixture of progressive Type-II and hybrid censoring schemes. In this paper, we discuss the statistical inference on Weibull parameters when the observed data are progressively Type-II hybrid censored. We derive the maximum likelihood estimators (MLEs) and the approximate maximum likelihood estimators (AMLEs) of the Weibull parameters. We then use the asymptotic distributions of the maximum likelihood estimators to construct approximate confidence intervals. Bayes estimates and the corresponding highest posterior density credible intervals of the unknown parameters are obtained under suitable priors on the unknown parameters and also by using the Gibbs sampling procedure. Monte Carlo simulations are then performed for comparing the confidence intervals based on all those different methods. Finally, one data set is analyzed for illustrative purposes.     

Extending conditional likelihood in models for stratified binary data

The conditional likelihood is widely used in logistic regression models with stratified binary data. In particular, it leads to accurate inference for the parameters of interest, which are common to all strata, eliminating stratum-specific nuisance parameters. The modified profile likelihood is an accurate approximation to the conditional likelihood, but has the advantage of being available for general parametric models. Here, we propose the modified profile likelihood as an ideal extension of the conditional likelihood in generalized linear models for binary data, with generic link function. An important feature is that for the implementation we only need standard outputs of routines for generalized linear models. The accuracy of the method is supported by theoretical properties and is confirmed by simulation results.This research was supported by MIUR COFIN 2001-2003.     

Continuous covariate frailty models for censored and truncated clustered data

Using some logarithmic and integral transformation we transform a continuous covariate frailty model into a polynomial regression model with a random effect. The responses of this mixed model can be ‘estimated’ via conditional hazard function estimation. The random error in this model does not have zero mean and its variance is not constant along the covariate and, consequently, these two quantities have to be estimated. Since the asymptotic expression for the bias is complicated, the two-large-bandwidth trick is proposed to estimate the bias. The proposed transformation is very useful for clustered incomplete data subject to left truncation and right censoring (and for complex clustered data in general). Indeed, in this case no standard software is available to fit the frailty model, whereas for the transformed model standard software for mixed models can be used for estimating the unknown parameters in the original frailty model. A small simulation study illustrates the good behavior of the proposed method. This method is applied to a bladder cancer data set.     

On the integrated maximum likelihood estimators for a closed population capture–recapture model with unequal capture probabilities

Nuisance parameter elimination is a central problem in capture–recapture modelling. In this paper, we consider a closed population capture–recapture model which assumes the capture probabilities varies only with the sampling occasions. In this model, the capture probabilities are regarded as nuisance parameters and the unknown number of individuals is the parameter of interest. In order to eliminate the nuisance parameters, the likelihood function is integrated with respect to a weight function (uniform and Jeffrey's) of the nuisance parameters resulting in an integrated likelihood function depending only on the population size. For these integrated likelihood functions, analytical expressions for the maximum likelihood estimates are obtained and it is proved that they are always finite and unique. Variance estimates of the proposed estimators are obtained via a parametric bootstrap resampling procedure. The proposed methods are illustrated on a real data set and their frequentist properties are assessed by means of a simulation study.     

Modeling heterogeneity for bivariate survival data by the Weibull distribution

We propose bivariate Weibull regression model with heterogeneity (frailty or random effect) which is generated by Weibull distribution. We assume that the bivariate survival data follow bivariate Weibull of Hanagal (Econ Qual Control 19:83–90, 2004). There are some interesting situations like survival times in genetic epidemiology, dental implants of patients and twin births (both monozygotic and dizygotic) where genetic behavior (which is unknown and random) of patients follows a known frailty distribution. These are the situations which motivate to study this particular model. We propose two-stage maximum likelihood estimation for hierarchical likelihood in the proposed model. We present a small simulation study to compare these estimates with the true value of the parameters and it is observed that these estimates are very close to the true values of the parameters.     

Inference on constant stress accelerated life tests for log-location-scale lifetime distributions with type-I hybrid censoring

In this paper, we consider a constant stress accelerated life test terminated by a hybrid Type-I censoring at the first stress level. The model is based on a general log-location-scale lifetime distribution with mean life being a linear function of stress and with constant scale. We obtain the maximum likelihood estimators (MLE) and the approximate maximum likelihood estimators (AMLE) of the model parameters. Approximate confidence intervals, likelihood ratio tests and two bootstrap methods are used to construct confidence intervals for the unknown parameters of the Weibull and lognormal distributions using the MLEs. Finally, a simulation study and two illustrative examples are provided to demonstrate the performance of the developed inferential methods.     

Improved inference for the shape-scale family of distributions under type-II censoring

The presence of a nuisance parameter may often perturb the quality of the likelihood-based inference for a parameter of interest under small to moderate sample sizes. The article proposes a maximal scale invariant transformation for likelihood-based inference for the shape in a shape-scale family to circumvent the effect of the nuisance scale parameter. The transformation can be used under complete or type-II censored samples. Simulation-based performance evaluation of the proposed estimator for the popular Weibull, Gamma and Generalized exponential distribution exhibits markedly improved performance in all types of likelihood-based inference for the shape under complete and type-II censored samples. The simulation study leads to a linear relation between the bias of the classical maximum likelihood estimator (MLE) and the transformation-based MLE for the popular Weibull and Gamma distributions. The linearity is exploited to suggest an almost unbiased estimator of the shape parameter for these distributions. Allied estimation of scale is also discussed.     

Inference for a Simple Step-Stress Model with Type-I Censoring and Lognormally Distributed Lifetimes

Accelerated life-testing (ALT) is a very useful technique for examining the reliability of highly reliable products. It allows the experimenter to obtain failure data more quickly at increased stress levels than under normal operating conditions. A step-stress model is one special class of ALT, and in this article we consider a simple step-stress model under the cumulative exposure model with lognormally distributed lifetimes in the presence of Type-I censoring. We then discuss inferential methods for the unknown parameters of the model by the maximum likelihood estimation method. Some numerical methods, such as the Newton–Raphson and quasi-Newton methods, are discussed for solving the corresponding non-linear likelihood equations. Next, we discuss the construction of confidence intervals for the unknown parameters based on (i) the asymptotic normality of the maximum likelihood estimators (MLEs), and (ii) parametric bootstrap resampling technique. A Monte Carlo simulation study is carried out to examine the performance of these methods of inference. Finally, a numerical example is presented in order to illustrate all the methods of inference developed here.     

Frailty Models for Arbitrarily Censored and Truncated Data

In this paper, we propose a frailty model for statistical inference in the case where we are faced with arbitrarily censored and truncated data. Our results extend those of Alioum and Commenges (1996), who developed a method of fitting a proportional hazards model to data of this kind. We discuss the identifiability of the regression coefficients involved in the model which are the parameters of interest, as well as the identifiability of the baseline cumulative hazard function of the model which plays the role of the infinite dimensional nuisance parameter. We illustrate our method with the use of simulated data as well as with a set of real data on transfusion-related AIDS.     

Hierarchical likelihood approach for the Weibull frailty model

In this article, the proportional hazard model with Weibull frailty, which is outside the range of the exponential family, is used for analysing the right-censored longitudinal survival data. Complex multidimensional integrals are avoided by using hierarchical likelihood to estimate the regression parameters and to predict the realizations of random effects. The adjusted profile hierarchical likelihood is adopted to estimate the parameters in frailty distribution, during which the first- and second-order methods are used. The simulation studies indicate that the regression-parameter estimates in the Weibull frailty model are accurate, which is similar to the gamma frailty and lognormal frailty models. Two published data sets are used for illustration.     

Constant Stress Accelerated Life Test on a Multiple-Component Series System under Weibull Lifetime Distributions

We will discuss the reliability analysis of the constant stress accelerated life test on a series system connected with multiple components under independent Weibull lifetime distributions whose scale parameters are log-linear in the level of the stress variable. The system lifetimes are collected under Type I censoring but the components that cause the systems to fail may or may not be observed. The data are so called masked for the latter case. Maximum likelihood approach and the Bayesian method are considered when the data are masked. Statistical inference on the estimation of the underlying model parameters as well as the mean time to failure and the reliability function will be addressed. Simulation study for a three-component case shows that Bayesian analysis outperforms the maximum likelihood approach especially when the data are highly masked.     

Likelihood-based confidence sets for partially identified parameters

There has been growing interest in partial identification of probability distributions and parameters. This paper considers statistical inference on parameters that are partially identified because data are incompletely observed, due to nonresponse or censoring, for instance. A method based on likelihood ratios is proposed for constructing confidence sets for partially identified parameters. The method can be used to estimate a proportion or a mean in the presence of missing data, without assuming missing-at-random or modeling the missing-data mechanism. It can also be used to estimate a survival probability with censored data without assuming independent censoring or modeling the censoring mechanism. A version of the verification bias problem is studied as well.     

The Effects of Rounding on Likelihood Procedures

The aim of this paper is to investigate the robustness properties of likelihood inference with respect to rounding effects. Attention is focused on exponential families and on inference about a scalar parameter of interest, also in the presence of nuisance parameters. A summary value of the influence function of a given statistic, the local-shift sensitivity, is considered. It accounts for small fluctuations in the observations. The main result is that the local-shift sensitivity is bounded for the usual likelihood-based statistics, i.e. the directed likelihood, the Wald and score statistics. It is also bounded for the modified directed likelihood, which is a higher-order adjustment of the directed likelihood. The practical implication is that likelihood inference is expected to be robust with respect to rounding effects. Theoretical analysis is supplemented and confirmed by a number of Monte Carlo studies, performed to assess the coverage probabilities of confidence intervals based on likelihood procedures when data are rounded. In addition, simulations indicate that the directed likelihood is less sensitive to rounding effects than the Wald and score statistics. This provides another criterion for choosing among first-order equivalent likelihood procedures. The modified directed likelihood shows the same robustness as the directed likelihood, so that its gain in inferential accuracy does not come at the price of an increase in instability with respect to rounding.     

Inference for the Birnbaum–Saunders Lifetime Regression Model with Applications

The Birnbaum–Saunders distribution is a positively skewed distribution that is frequently used for analyzing lifetime data. Regression analysis is widely used in this context when some covariates are involved in the life-test. In this article, we discuss the maximum likelihood estimation of the model parameters and associated inference. We discuss the likelihood-ratio tests for some hypotheses of interest as well as some interval estimation methods. A Monte Carlo simulation study is then carried out to examine the performance of the proposed estimators and the interval estimation methods. Finally, some numerical data analyses are done for illustrating all the inferential methods developed here.     

Regression analysis of current status data with auxiliary covariates and informative observation times

This paper discusses regression analysis of current status failure time data with information observations and continuous auxiliary covariates. Under the additive hazards model, we employ a frailty model to describe the relationship between the failure time of interest and censoring time through some latent variables and propose an estimated partial likelihood estimator of regression parameters that makes use of the available auxiliary information. Asymptotic properties of the resulting estimators are established. To assess the finite sample performance of the proposed method, an extensive simulation study is conducted, and the results indicate that the proposed method works well. An illustrative example is also provided.     

On Parameter Inference for Step-Stress Accelerated Life Test with Geometric Distribution

In this article, we present the parameter inference in step-stress accelerated life tests under the tampered failure rate model with geometric distribution. We deal with Type-II censoring scheme involved in experimental data, and provide the maximum likelihood estimate and confidence interval of the parameters of interest. With the help of the Monte-Carlo simulation technique, a comparison of precision of the confidence limits is demonstrated for our method, the Bootstrap method, and the large-sample based procedure. The application of two industrial real datasets shows the proposed method efficiency and feasibility.     

A GLM approach to step-stress accelerated life testing with interval censoring

In this paper, we present a statistical inference procedure for the step-stress accelerated life testing (SSALT) model with Weibull failure time distribution and interval censoring via the formulation of generalized linear model (GLM). The likelihood function of an interval censored SSALT is in general too complicated to obtain analytical results. However, by transforming the failure time to an exponential distribution and using a binomial random variable for failure counts occurred in inspection intervals, a GLM formulation with a complementary log-log link function can be constructed. The estimations of the regression coefficients used for the Weibull scale parameter are obtained through the iterative weighted least square (IWLS) method, and the shape parameter is updated by a direct maximum likelihood (ML) estimation. The confidence intervals for these parameters are estimated through bootstrapping. The application of the proposed GLM approach is demonstrated by an industrial example.