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We use data from the Associated Press college American football poll to analyze two types of ex-post optimality of social learning in a non-lab setting. The poll is a weekly subjective ranking of the top 25 teams, voted on by over 60 sports journalists. Voters potentially can learn from their peers by observing the aggregate ranks before updating their individual ranks. Our results indicate that, while voters do learn from their peers to some extent, the informativeness of peer ranks appears to be under-valued.  相似文献   

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Synthetic biology (SynBio) is an emerging scientific field which has quickly established momentum and visibility. Although no single definition of SynBio prevails, the field broadly encompasses the application of engineering principles to biology, redesigning biological materials and using them as new substrates to create products and entities not otherwise found in nature. This article first reviews SynBio, highlighting the novel aspects of this technology. It then synthesizes ethical issues highlighted in the literature to date and makes some initial claims that research on the ethical aspects of SynBio should: avoid creating a new subtype of bioethics, concentrate on novel concepts and problems, and be situated within a context of cooperative interdisciplinary investigation.  相似文献   

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The process of transition in which a population's rate of natural increase changes from low to high to low is familiar yet a widely accepted theory has not been produced. This paper shows that the search for a general transition theory is ill-advised. This theory would contain laws that can be used: 1) in explaining changes in population growth rates in today's slow-growing populations, 2) in predictions of current and future changes in today's rapidly-growing populations, and 3) in formulating population control policies where fertility levels are high. The search for a general theory which can explain, predict, and control demographic transition is premised on the assumption that 1 entity, called demographic transition, is the object of these 3 uses. The attempt to encompass these 3 uses by a single theory has made each more difficult than it might otherwise be and has contributed to a serious schism within population studies between medical and behavioral approaches. Some ways in which future work on demographic transition can be made more productive are: 1) the formulation of population control policies for less developed countries, the prediction of population changes in those countries, and the explanation of historical trends, which are better treated as separate tasks; 2) elements of medical and behavioral approaches require reintegration; 3) mortality decline appears to be only a highly indirect source of fertility decline; 4) neither development, modernization, nor urbanization appear to be theoretically significant sources of fertility decline; and 5) neither crude birthrates nor fertility levels appear to be theoretically significant dependent variables.  相似文献   

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We argue, in the spirit of some of Jean-Yves Jaffray’s work, that explicitly incorporating the information, however imprecise, available to the decision maker is relevant, feasible, and fruitful. In particular, we show that it can lead us to know whether the decision maker has wrong beliefs and whether it matters or not, that it makes it possible to better model and analyze how the decision maker takes into account new information, even when this information is not an event and finally that it is crucial when attempting to identify and measure the decision maker’s attitude toward imprecise information.  相似文献   

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Research shows that individuals living in the southern part of the United States express more negative racial attitudes than those living outside the South. Using data from The American National Election Study (NES), the purpose of this paper is to assess whether key factors often associated with the Southern attitude distinction are indeed more potent in the South than elsewhere. Drawing data from the 1980s, 1990s, and 2000s, we further assess whether the impact of the South has increased or decreased over time. Results indicate that the impact of the South is negligible at best. Findings do show that place does matter for conservatives. However, in this case, non-South location matters more than the South. Relative to their liberal counterparts, conservatives in the non-South espouse more individualistic beliefs than do their Southern counterparts. These findings are discussed within the dominant theoretical framework in this area.  相似文献   

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The article shows that a Paretian social welfare function can be history independent and time consistent only if a stringent set of conditions is verified. Individual utilities must be additive. The social welfare function must be a linear combination of these utilities. Social preferences are stationary only if, in addition, all individuals have the same constant discount rate. The results are implemented in two frameworks: deterministic dynamic choice and dynamic choice under uncertainty. The applications highlight that the conditions are unlikely to be met by individual preferences, and that they severely restrict social preferences.  相似文献   

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We examine the last and middle names given to first-born sons and daughters in a sample of 600 married women selected from the staff directory of a university system. Women with unconventional marital surnames were more likely to include their birth surname in their child’s name than were women who took their husband’s last name at marriage. Around 90% of women with an unconventional marital surname still gave their children their husband’s surname. Among women who selected an unconventional last name, a number of variables correlated with whether or not the child’s name contained the mother’s birth surname, including type of last name used, gender role attitudes, political liberalism, religiosity, importance of last name to the woman’s self-concept, feminist motivations for the woman’s last name choice, and education of the mother and her husband. Logistic regression analysis found that self-identification on political liberalness and husband’s education were the most powerful predictors, reducing the other effects to nonsignificant levels.  相似文献   

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In this work, we intend to present a reading of current society as the extinction society. Extinction society here means the characterization, both social and individual, of a highly developed reality, especially in terms of personal freedom, unable to face global collective threats, first of all the climate disaster. This involves the risk, within a few generations, of the extinction of both the type of society that at least in the West we have been accustomed to for a few hundred years, and in the apocalyptic perspective of the species. The attempt to represent this question is addressed here by referring to some recent authors of cultural studies and sociology, to try and understand the principles of this extinction process. Following the analysis of what is in fact a process of individual liberation, that is, of increasingly advanced individualization, we proceed by looking at the macro-themes of consumption, politics and psyche. This is in order to understand the possible outcomes of this process and the overall sense of an extinction of the current society if not of the species.  相似文献   

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Focus groups convened in New Zealand in 2014 confirmed a major finding of previous research: that while most people are concerned about existing levels of economic inequality, there is considerable uncertainty over whether and how a more equal distribution might be achieved. In asking why participants acquiesced to views that they did not like, the article suggests that they lacked a language in which to imagine or articulate their preferred alternative, partly because structural critiques of the status quo have become increasingly marginal within the wider public sphere. This observation sets the scene for an analysis of the discursive practice of Jacinda Ardern and the Labour Party during the 2017 election campaign and in the November 2017 Speech from the Throne. The article asks whether this practice represents a departure from – and a challenge to – the discursive dominance of ‘capitalist realism’. It finds signs of significant change relative to previous governments, particularly in the explicit articulation of values. At the same time, significant moments of ambivalence remain, especially on the question of how the new Government’s social and environmental objectives might be achieved.  相似文献   

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This article explores the question of “did how we learn affect what we learn in social science?” through a case study of economic development research. Total dependence on a single method can be a dangerous practice as the method may dictate research findings and make it impossible to eliminate the rival hypothesis of methodological bias. When the multimethod approach is preferred, a mechanical application of multiple methods will not make it better than a single method approach. Using the case of state and local economic development studies, this article illustrates the promise of multimethod research and the danger of its misuse. Poor implementation of the approach can create equally misleading findings and a false sense of confidence in our theories. Among other factors identified in the article, a major key to its successful implementation is having researchers well trained in multiple methods.  相似文献   

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Summary This article argues that, to provide reliable and nationallyrelevant information on which to base policy and practice andto afford the Black population equal access to knowledge aboutits social realities, social welfare research needs to includeaccurate representations of minority ethnic groups and theirchanging needs. Using child welfare and community care as examples,a brief research review indicates the continued scarcity ofsuch research and its potential benefits. The methodologicalsupports available to researchers seeking to include minorityethnic populations and anti-racist perspectives are considered,and it is concluded that such supports are limited and patchy.In exploring the reasons for this, the author identifies someof the political, personal and technical challenges an anti-racistapproach presents. The terms 'experiential affinity' and 'experientialinterdependence' are introduced to help conceptualize the knowledgeand power differentials which may impede researchers pursuinganti-discriminatory aims, and a 'costs and benefits' frameworkis suggested to help understand and confront these issues. Then,drawing on existing research and theory, the article considersin detail some of the technical challenges to be overcome, withparticular reference to sample identification and selection,fieldwork processes and data analysis and suggests practicalways in which some of these challenges might be met.  相似文献   

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This paper empirically tests the Keynesian hypothesis that government defence spending positively impacts on aggregate output, by using a long-run equilibrium model for the US and the UK.Our contribution, with respect to previous works, is twofold. First, our inferences are adjusted for structural breaks exhibited by the data concerning fiscal and monetary variables. Second, we take into account different dynamics between defence spending on aggregate output, showing that the results are sensitive to sub-sample choices. Though the estimated elasticities in both countries show a lack of significance in the more recent years of the sample, defence-spending priorities addressed to international security may revitalize pro-cyclical effects in the UK, by an industrial policy of defence shared with the EU members.  相似文献   

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Can we rationally learn to coordinate?   总被引:1,自引:0,他引:1  
In this paper we examine the issue whether individual rationality considerations are sufficient to guarantee that individuals will learn to coordinate. This question is central in any discussion of whether social phenomena (read: conventions) can be explained in terms of a purely individualistic approach. We argue that the positive answers to this general question that have been obtained in some recent work require assumptions which incorporate some convention. This conclusion may be seen as supporting the viewpoint of institutional individualism in contrast to psychological individualism.  相似文献   

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In this study, we investigate whether changes in child social cognitive functioning and parenting are the mechanisms through which an individually delivered real‐world child intervention, Stay Cool Kids, aimed at preventing externalizing problem behavior in high‐risk elementary school children, induces changes in child behavior. Moreover, we tested whether mediation was moderated by child characteristics (gender and personality). The sample consisted of 264 fourth‐grade children displaying externalizing behavior (TRF t‐score > 60). Forty‐eight schools were randomly assigned to the intervention or no‐intervention control condition. The results of mediation analyses provided evidence for child positive self‐perception and maternal involvement as working mechanisms of the intervention. Child personality factor extraversion moderated the mediating effect of involvement whereas no moderated mediation was found for gender. Working mechanisms of the intervention differ for children with different personality characteristiscs.  相似文献   

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ABSTRACT

In Canada, institutions that receive research funding from the three federal granting agencies must establish research ethics boards (REBs) to review the ethical acceptability of research involving humans. Institutions are also expected to promote the responsible conduct of research, fostering researchers’ abilities to act with integrity in the conduct of their research. Where a researcher fails to act with integrity in research with humans, institutional policies and procedures of the U15, Canada’s most research-intensive universities, vary in the extent to which they involve their REBs in response to such breaches. Some make no mention of the REB, whereas others state that their REB should be provided with information relating to upheld allegations. In this paper, we argue that when allegations of research integrity breaches are corroborated, the institution’s REB should be identified as a party required to receive that information. Only then can REBs ensure compliance with research ethics standards, which is essential to maintain the public’s trust.  相似文献   

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