Optimal Statistical Design of a Multivariate EWMA Chart Based on ARL and MRL

Statistical design is applied to a multivariate exponentially weighted moving average (MEWMA) control chart. The chart parameters are control limit H and smoothing constant r. The choices of the parameters depend on the number of variables p and the size of the process mean shift δ. The MEWMA statistic is modeled as a Markov chain and the Markov chain approach is used to determine the properties of the chart. Although average run length has become a traditional measure of the performance of control schemes, some authors have suggested other measures, such as median and other percentiles of the run length distribution to explain run length properties of a control scheme. This will allow a thorough study of the performance of the control scheme. Consequently, conclusions based on these measures would provide a better and comprehensive understanding of a scheme. In this article, we present the performance of the MEWMA control chart as measured by the average run length and median run length. Graphs are given so that the chart parameters of an optimal MEWMA chart can be determined easily.     

Self-Starting control charts for monitoring logistic regression profiles

In some applications, quality engineers cannot monitor the processes at the beginning of the production process. Because the process parameters are unknown and there are not enough initial samples to estimate the process parameters. Self-starting control charts are applied to monitor processes at the start-up stages with no enough initial samples. In this paper, we propose three self-starting control charts to monitor a logistic regression profile which models the relationship between a binomial response variable and explanatory variables. Also, we compare the proposed control charts with each other through simulation studies in terms of average run length (ARL) criterion.     

The influence of parameter estimation on the ARL of Shewhart type charts for time series

In this paper we discuss the behavior of the Shewhart residual chart and the modified Shewhart chart if the parameters of the underlying process are unknown and thus have to be estimated. We focus on the estimation of the variance. For AR models we also consider the estimation of the AR coefficients. The average run length (ARL) of the control chart with estimated parameters is compared with the ARL of the scheme for known parameters and with the ARL for independent variables. Additionally, we give recommendations on the choice of the estimators in the context of Shewhart control schemes.     

A weighted likelihood ratio test-based chart for monitoring process mean and variability

In this paper, a new single exponentially weighted moving average (EWMA) control chart based on the weighted likelihood ratio test, referred to as the WLRT chart, is proposed for the problem of monitoring the mean and variance of a normally distributed process variable. It is easy to design, fast to compute, and quite effective for diverse cases including the detection of the decrease in variability and individual observation case. The optimal parameters that can be used as a design aid in selecting specific parameter values based on the average run length (ARL) and the sample size are provided. The in-control (IC) and out-of-control (OC) performance properties of the new chart are compared with some other existing EWMA-type charts. Our simulation results show that the IC run length distribution of the proposed chart is similar to that of a geometric distribution, and it provides quite a robust and satisfactory overall performance for detecting a wide range of shifts in the process mean and/or variability.     

Lindley first-order autoregressive model with applications

ABSTRACT

A new stationary first-order autoregressive process with Lindley marginal distribution, denoted as LAR(1) is introduced. We derive the probability function for the innovation process. We consider many properties of this process, involving spectral density, some multi-step ahead conditional measures, run probabilities, stationary solution, uniqueness and ergodicity. We estimate the unknown parameters of the process using three methods of estimation and investigate properties of the estimators with some numerical results to illustrate them. Some applications of the process are discussed to two real data sets and it is shown that the LAR(1) model fits better than other known non Gaussian AR(1) models.     

EWNA charts for monitoring the mean and the autocovariances of stationary processes

In this paper various types of EWMA control charts are introduced for the simultaneous monitoring of the mean and the autocovariances. The target process is assumed to be a stationary process up to fourth-order or an ARMA process with heavy tailed innovations. The case of a Gaussian process is included in our results as well. The charts are compared within a simulation study. As a measure of the performance the average run length is taken. The target process is an ARMA (1,1) process with Student-t distributed innovations. The behavior of the charts is analyzed with respect to several out-of-control models. The best design parameters are determined for each chart. Our comparisons show that the multivariate EWMA chart applied to the residuals has the best overall performance.     

CUSUM control schemes for Gaussian processes

A CUSUM control scheme for detecting a change point in a Gaussian process is derived. An upper and a lower bound for the distribution of the run length and for its moments is given. In a Monte Carlo study the average run length (ARL) of this chart is compared with the ARL of two other CUSUM procedures which are based on approximations to the sequential probability ratio, and, moreover, with EWMA schemes for autocorrelated data. Results on the optimal choice of the reference value are presented. Furthermore it is investigated how these charts behave if the model parameters are estimated.     

Monitoring parameter shift with Poisson integer-valued GARCH models

This study examines the statistical process control chart used to detect a parameter shift with Poisson integer-valued GARCH (INGARCH) models and zero-inflated Poisson INGARCH models. INGARCH models have a conditional mean structure similar to GARCH models and are well known to be appropriate to analyzing count data that feature overdispersion. Special attention is paid in this study to conditional and general likelihood ratio-based (CLR and GLR) CUSUM charts and the score function-based CUSUM (SFCUSUM) chart. The performance of each of the proposed methods is evaluated through a simulation study, by calculating their average run length. Our findings show that the proposed methods perform adequately, and that the CLR chart outperforms the GLR chart when there is an increased shift of parameters. Moreover, the use of the SFCUSUM chart in particular is found to lead to a lower false alarm rate than the use of the CLR chart.     

The double sampling S2 chart with estimated process variance

This paper proposes useful exact bounds for the parameters of the double sampling S² chart with known process variance and it also investigates the properties of the double sampling S² chart with estimated process variance, in terms of the average run length, the standard deviation of the run length and the average sample size, providing a numerical comparison with the known process variance case. It also provides guidelines to systematically design the double sampling S² chart both with known and estimated process variance and proposes two optimal design procedures with estimated process variance, for (a) minimizing the out-of-control average run length and (b) minimizing the out-of-control average sample size.     

Design of an attribute np control chart for process monitoring based on repetitive group sampling under truncated life tests

In this paper, an attribute control chart under repetitive group sampling is designed for monitoring the production process where the lifetime of the product is considered as quality of the product. We assume that the lifetime follows the Pareto distribution of second kind with known shape parameter. The performance of the proposed chart is evaluated by average run length. The control limits coefficients as well as the repetitive group sampling parameter such as sample size are determined such that the in-control average run length is as close as to the specified average run length. Out-of-control average run length is also reported for different shift constants with corresponding optimal parameters. In addition, performance of proposed control chart is compared with the performance of existing chart. An economical designing of proposed control chart is also discussed.     

Some issues in the design of EWMA Charts

The traditional design procedure for selecting the parameters of EWMA charts is based on the average run length (ARL). It is shown that for some types of EWMA charts, such a procedure may lead to high probability of a false out-of-control signal. An alternative procedure based on both the ARL and the standard deviation of run length (SRL) is recommended. It is shown that, with the new procedure, the EWMA chart using its exact variance can detect moderate and large shifts of the process mean faster.     

Run rules based phase II c and np charts when process parameters are unknown

Abstract

The performance of attributes control charts is usually evaluated under the assumption of known process parameters (i.e., the nominal proportion of non conforming units or the nominal average number of nonconformities). However, in practice, these process parameters are rarely known and have to be estimated from an in-control Phase I data set. The major contributions of this paper are (a) the derivation of the run length properties of the Run Rules Phase II c and np charts with estimated parameters, particularly focusing on the ARL, SDRL, and 0.05, 0.5, and 0.95 quantiles of the run length distribution; (b) the investigation of the number m of Phase I samples that is needed by these charts in order to obtain similar in-control ARLs to the known parameters case; and (c) the proposition of new specific chart parameters that allow these charts to have approximately the same in-control ARLs as the ones obtained in the known parameters case.     

Zone control charts with estimated parameters for detecting prespecified changes in linear profiles

ABSTRACT

In profile monitoring, control charts are proposed to detect unanticipated changes, and it is usually assumed that the in-control parameters are known. However, due to the characteristics of a system or process, the prespecified changes would appear in the process. Moreover, in most applications, the in-control parameters are usually unknown. To overcome these issues, we develop the zone control charts with estimated parameters to detect small shifts of these prespecified changes. The effects of estimation error have been investigated on the performance of the proposed charts. To account for the practitioner-to-practitioner variability, the expected average run length (ARL) and the standard deviation of the average run length (SDARL) is used as the performance metrics. Our results show that the estimation error results in the significant variation in the ARL distribution. Furthermore, in order to adequately reduce the variability, more phase I samples are required in terms of the SDARL metric than that in terms of the expected ARL metric. In addition, more observations on each sampled profile are suggested to improve the charts' performance, especially for small phase I sample sizes. Finally, an illustrative example is given to show the performance of the proposed zone control charts.     

Nonparametric control charts based on runs and Wilcoxon-type rank-sum statistics

In this article, we introduce three new distribution-free Shewhart-type control charts that exploit run and Wilcoxon-type rank-sum statistics to detect possible shifts of a monitored process. Exact formulae for the alarm rate, the run length distribution, and the average run length (ARL) are all derived. A key advantage of these charts is that, due to their nonparametric nature, the false alarm rate (FAR) and in-control run length distribution is the same for all continuous process distributions. Tables are provided for the implementation of the charts for some typical FAR values. Furthermore, a numerical study carried out reveals that the new charts are quite flexible and efficient in detecting shifts to Lehmann-type out-of-control situations.     

Linear filter model representations for integrated process control with repeated adjustments and monitoring

An integrated process control (IPC) procedure is a scheme which combines the engineering process control (EPC) and the statistical process control (SPC) procedures for the process where the noise and a special cause are present. The most efficient way of reducing the effect of the noise is to adjust the process by its forecast, which is done by the EPC procedure. The special cause, which produces significant deviations of the process level from the target, can be detected by the monitoring scheme, which is done by the SPC procedure. The effects of special causes can be eliminated by a rectifying action. The performance of the IPC procedure is evaluated in terms of the average run length (ARL) or the expected cost per unit time (ECU). In designing the IPC procedure for practical use, it is essential to derive its properties constituting the ARL or ECU based on the proposed process model. The process is usually assumed as it starts only with noise, and special causes occur at random times afterwards. The special cause is assumed to change the mean as well as all the parameters of the in-control model. The linear filter models for the process level as well as the controller and the observed deviations for the IPC procedure are developed here.     

ARL-unbiased control charts for the monitoring of exponentially distributed characteristics based on type-II censored samples

In this paper, the problem of monitoring process data that can be modelled by exponential distribution is considered when observations are from type-II censoring. Such data are common in many practical inspection environment. An average run length unbiased (ARL-unbiased) control scheme is developed when the in-control scale parameter is known. The performance of the proposed control charts are investigated in terms of the ARL and standard deviation of the run length. The effects of parameter estimation on the proposed control charts are also evaluated. Then, we consider the design of the ARL-unbiased control charts when the in-control scale parameter is estimated. Finally, an example is used to illustrate the implementation of the proposed control charts.     

Performance comparison of some likelihood ratio-based statistical surveillance methods

Using Markov chain representations, we evaluate and compare the performance of cumulative sum (CUSUM) and Shiryayev–Roberts methods in terms of the zero- and steady-state average run length and worst-case signal resistance measures. We also calculate the signal resistance values from the worst- to the best-case scenarios for both the methods. Our results support the recommendation that Shewhart limits be used with CUSUM and Shiryayev–Roberts methods, especially for low values of the size of the shift in the process mean for which the methods are designed to detect optimally.     

A CUSUM control chart for monitoring the variance when parameters are estimated

CUSUM control chart has been widely used for monitoring the process variance. It is usually used assuming that the nominal process variance is known. However, several researchers have shown that the ability of control charts to signal when a process is out of control is seriously affected unless process parameters are estimated from a large in-control Phase I data set. In this paper we derive the run length properties of a CUSUM chart for monitoring dispersion with estimated process variance and we evaluate the performance of this chart by comparing it with the same chart but with assumed known process parameters.