Nonparametric versus Parametric Estimation of the Cure Fraction Using Interval Censored Data

This article discusses estimation of the cure rate by means of the bounded cumulative hazard (BCH) model using interval censored data. The parametric and nonparametric estimation methods within the framework of the EM algorithm were employed for cure rate estimation and their results compared. The Turnbull estimator was used in the nonparametric estimation while in parametric method both the exponential and Weibull distributions were considered. We show via simulation that the nonparametric method is a viable alternative to the parametric one when the censoring rate is rapidly increasing.     

Efficient Estimation of the Partly Linear Additive Hazards Model with Current Status Data

This paper focuses on efficient estimation, optimal rates of convergence and effective algorithms in the partly linear additive hazards regression model with current status data. We use polynomial splines to estimate both cumulative baseline hazard function with monotonicity constraint and nonparametric regression functions with no such constraint. We propose a simultaneous sieve maximum likelihood estimation for regression parameters and nuisance parameters and show that the resultant estimator of regression parameter vector is asymptotically normal and achieves the semiparametric information bound. In addition, we show that rates of convergence for the estimators of nonparametric functions are optimal. We implement the proposed estimation through a backfitting algorithm on generalized linear models. We conduct simulation studies to examine the finite‐sample performance of the proposed estimation method and present an analysis of renal function recovery data for illustration.     

Rate-optimal nonparametric estimation in classical and Berkson errors-in-variables problems

We consider nonparametric estimation of a regression curve when the data are observed with Berkson errors or with a mixture of classical and Berkson errors. In this context, other existing nonparametric procedures can either estimate the regression curve consistently on a very small interval or require complicated inversion of an estimator of the Fourier transform of a nonparametric regression estimator. We introduce a new estimation procedure which is simpler to implement, and study its asymptotic properties. We derive convergence rates which are faster than those previously obtained in the literature, and we prove that these rates are optimal. We suggest a data-driven bandwidth selector and apply our method to some simulated examples.     

随机效应半参数logit模型的惩罚似然估计研究

 在颇具争议的收入差距和健康关系研究中,为了降低可能存在的模型设定和遗漏变量偏误,本文提出了随机效应半参数logit模型,其中非参数的设定还可用于数据的初探性分析。随后本文提出了模型非参数和参数部分的估计方法。这里涉及的难点是随机效应的存在导致似然函数中的积分没有解析式,而非参数的存在更加大了估计难度。本文基于惩罚样条非参数估计方法和四阶Laplace近似方法建立了惩罚对数似然函数,其最大化采用了Newton_Raphson近似方法。文章还建立了惩罚样条中重要光滑参数的选取准则。模型在收入差距和健康实例中的估计结果表明数据支持收入差距弱假说,且非参数估计结果表明其具有U型形式,与实例估计结果的比较指出本文提出的估计方法是较准确的。     

Semiparametric Estimation with Profile Algorithm for Longitudinal Binary Data

This article considers analyzing longitudinal binary data semiparametrically and proposing GEE-Smoothing spline in the estimation of parametric and nonparametric components. The method is an extension of the parametric generalized estimating equation to semiparametric. The nonparametric component is estimated by smoothing spline approach, i.e., natural cubic spline. We use profile algorithm in the estimation of both parametric and nonparametric components. Properties of the estimators are evaluated by simulation.     

Adaptive weights smoothing with applications to image restoration

We propose a new method of nonparametric estimation which is based on locally constant smoothing with an adaptive choice of weights for every pair of data points. Some theoretical properties of the procedure are investigated. Then we demonstrate the performance of the method on some simulated univariate and bivariate examples and compare it with other nonparametric methods. Finally we discuss applications of this procedure to magnetic resonance and satellite imaging.     

Cure-rate estimation under Case-1 interval censoring

We consider nonparametric estimation of cure-rate based on mixture model under Case-1 interval censoring. We show that the nonparametric maximum-likelihood estimator (NPMLE) of cure-rate is non-unique as well as inconsistent, and propose two estimators based on the NPMLE of the distribution function under this censoring model. We present a cross-validation method for choosing a ‘cut-off’ point needed for the estimators. The limiting distributions of the latter are obtained using extreme-value theory. Graphical illustration of the procedures based on simulated data is provided.     

Variance function estimation of a one-dimensional nonstationary process

We propose a flexible nonparametric estimation of a variance function from a one-dimensional process where the process errors are nonstationary and correlated. Due to nonstationarity a local variogram is defined, and its asymptotic properties are derived. We include a bandwidth selection method for smoothing taking into account the correlations in the errors. We compare the proposed difference-based nonparametric approach with Anderes and Stein(2011)’s local-likelihood approach. Our method has a smaller integrated MSE, easily fixes the boundary bias, and requires far less computing time than the likelihood-based method.     

Adaptive nonparametric estimation in the presence of dependence

We consider nonparametric estimation problems in the presence of dependent data, notably nonparametric regression with random design and nonparametric density estimation. The proposed estimation procedure is based on a dimension reduction. The minimax optimal rate of convergence of the estimator is derived assuming a sufficiently weak dependence characterised by fast decreasing mixing coefficients. We illustrate these results by considering classical smoothness assumptions. However, the proposed estimator requires an optimal choice of a dimension parameter depending on certain characteristics of the function of interest, which are not known in practice. The main issue addressed in our work is an adaptive choice of this dimension parameter combining model selection and Lepski's method. It is inspired by the recent work of Goldenshluger and Lepski [(2011), ‘Bandwidth Selection in Kernel Density Estimation: Oracle Inequalities and Adaptive Minimax Optimality’, The Annals of Statistics, 39, 1608–1632]. We show that this data-driven estimator can attain the lower risk bound up to a constant provided a fast decay of the mixing coefficients.     

Quantile regression estimation of partially linear additive models

In this paper, we consider the estimation of partially linear additive quantile regression models where the conditional quantile function comprises a linear parametric component and a nonparametric additive component. We propose a two-step estimation approach: in the first step, we approximate the conditional quantile function using a series estimation method. In the second step, the nonparametric additive component is recovered using either a local polynomial estimator or a weighted Nadaraya–Watson estimator. Both consistency and asymptotic normality of the proposed estimators are established. Particularly, we show that the first-stage estimator for the finite-dimensional parameters attains the semiparametric efficiency bound under homoskedasticity, and that the second-stage estimators for the nonparametric additive component have an oracle efficiency property. Monte Carlo experiments are conducted to assess the finite sample performance of the proposed estimators. An application to a real data set is also illustrated.     

On completely data-driven bandwidth selection for single-index models

The class of single-index models (SIMs) has become an important tool for nonparametric regression analysis. As with any other nonparametric regression models, the selection of bandwidth plays an important role in the inferences of the SIMs. However, most results in the literature either take the bandwidths as externally given, or require unpractical assumptions or very restrictive conditions for data-driven bandwidths. We examine the asymptotic properties of a popular bandwidth selection method based on cross-validation that is completely data-driven, under much weaker conditions than those assumed in the literature. And we show that the same bandwidth that is optimal for estimating the index vector, can be used for nearly optimal error variance estimation through the method of varying cross-validation. A simulation study is presented to demonstrate the finite sample performance of the proposed procedures, based on which we recommend a simple 2-step procedure for bandwidth selection, index vector estimation, as well as error variance estimation.     

Local polynomial regression and simulation–extrapolation

Summary.  The paper introduces a new local polynomial estimator and develops supporting asymptotic theory for nonparametric regression in the presence of covariate measurement error. We address the measurement error with Cook and Stefanski's simulation–extrapolation (SIMEX) algorithm. Our method improves on previous local polynomial estimators for this problem by using a bandwidth selection procedure that addresses SIMEX's particular estimation method and considers higher degree local polynomial estimators. We illustrate the accuracy of our asymptotic expressions with a Monte Carlo study, compare our method with other estimators with a second set of Monte Carlo simulations and apply our method to a data set from nutritional epidemiology. SIMEX was originally developed for parametric models. Although SIMEX is, in principle, applicable to nonparametric models, a serious problem arises with SIMEX in nonparametric situations. The problem is that smoothing parameter selectors that are developed for data without measurement error are no longer appropriate and can result in considerable undersmoothing. We believe that this is the first paper to address this difficulty.     

Modified cross-validation in density estimation

We propose a new modified (biased) cross-validation method for adaptively determining the bandwidth in a nonparametric density estimation setup. It is shown that the method provides consistent minimizers. Some simulation results are reported on which compare the small sample behavior of the new and the classical cross-validation selectors.     

Detection of Change Point in Nonparametric Function with Unit-Root Noise by Wavelet

A wavelet method is proposed to detect jumps in a function which is observed with unit-root noise. We obtain critical values at any scale and prove the consistency of wavelet detection when the nonparametric function is smooth. It shows that the estimation of the number and locations of change points are consistent when there are change points in the nonparametric function. Simulation study supports our method.     

A nonparametric estimation procedure for the Hawkes process: comparison with maximum likelihood estimation

In earlier work, Kirchner [An estimation procedure for the Hawkes process. Quant Financ. 2017;17(4):571–595], we introduced a nonparametric estimation method for the Hawkes point process. In this paper, we present a simulation study that compares this specific nonparametric method to maximum-likelihood estimation. We find that the standard deviations of both estimation methods decrease as power-laws in the sample size. Moreover, the standard deviations are proportional. For example, for a specific Hawkes model, the standard deviation of the branching coefficient estimate is roughly 20% larger than for MLE – over all sample sizes considered. This factor becomes smaller when the true underlying branching coefficient becomes larger. In terms of runtime, our method clearly outperforms MLE. The present bias of our method can be well explained and controlled. As an incidental finding, we see that also MLE estimates seem to be significantly biased when the underlying Hawkes model is near criticality. This asks for a more rigorous analysis of the Hawkes likelihood and its optimization.     

Partially Linear Additive Models with Unknown Link Functions

In this paper, we consider partially linear additive models with an unknown link function, which include single‐index models and additive models as special cases. We use polynomial spline method for estimating the unknown link function as well as the component functions in the additive part. We establish that convergence rates for all nonparametric functions are the same as in one‐dimensional nonparametric regression. For a faster rate of the parametric part, we need to define appropriate ‘projection’ that is more complicated than that defined previously for partially linear additive models. Compared to previous approaches, a distinct advantage of our estimation approach in implementation is that estimation directly reduces estimation in the single‐index model and can thus deal with much larger dimensional problems than previous approaches for additive models with unknown link functions. Simulations and a real dataset are used to illustrate the proposed model.     

DATA-DRIVEN NONPARAMETRIC SPECTRAL DENSITY ESTIMATORS FOR ECONOMIC TIME SERIES: A MONTE CARLO STUDY

Spectral analysis at frequencies other than zero plays an increasingly important role in econometrics. A number of alternative automated data-driven procedures for nonparametric spectral density estimation have been suggested in the literature, but little is known about their finite-sample accuracy. We compare five such procedures in terms of their mean-squared percentage error across frequencies. Our data generating processes (DGP) include autoregressive-moving average (ARMA) models, fractionally integrated ARMA models and nonparametric models based on 16 commonly used macroeconomic time series. We find that for both quarterly and monthly data the autoregressive sieve estimator is the most reliable method overall.     

Adaptive Bayesian Procedures Using Random Series Priors

We consider a general class of prior distributions for nonparametric Bayesian estimation which uses finite random series with a random number of terms. A prior is constructed through distributions on the number of basis functions and the associated coefficients. We derive a general result on adaptive posterior contraction rates for all smoothness levels of the target function in the true model by constructing an appropriate ‘sieve’ and applying the general theory of posterior contraction rates. We apply this general result on several statistical problems such as density estimation, various nonparametric regressions, classification, spectral density estimation and functional regression. The prior can be viewed as an alternative to the commonly used Gaussian process prior, but properties of the posterior distribution can be analysed by relatively simpler techniques. An interesting approximation property of B‐spline basis expansion established in this paper allows a canonical choice of prior on coefficients in a random series and allows a simple computational approach without using Markov chain Monte Carlo methods. A simulation study is conducted to show that the accuracy of the Bayesian estimators based on the random series prior and the Gaussian process prior are comparable. We apply the method on Tecator data using functional regression models.     

Minimum Risk Invariant Estimators of a Continuous Cumulative Distribution Function

The problem of nonparametric minimum risk invariant estimation has engaged a good deal of attention in the literature and minimum risk invariant estimators (MRIE's) have been constructed for some special statistical models. We present a new and simple method of obtaining the MRIE's of a continuous cumulative distribution function (cdf) under a general invariant loss function. All the MRIE's, which are known from the literature, can be constructed by the method presented in the article, in particular, under the weighted quadratic, LINEX and entropy loss functions. This method enables also to construct the MRIE's in nonparametric statistical models which have not been considered until now. In particular, considering a family of nonparametric precautionary loss functions, a new class of MRIE's of the cdf has been found. We also give some general remarks on obtaining the MRIE's and a review concerning minimaxity and admissibility of MRIE's.     

Nonparametric maximum likelihood estimation for shifted curves

The analysis of a sample of curves can be done by self-modelling regression methods. Within this framework we follow the ideas of nonparametric maximum likelihood estimation known from event history analysis and the counting process set-up. We derive an infinite dimensional score equation and from there we suggest an algorithm to estimate the shape function for a simple shape invariant model. The nonparametric maximum likelihood estimator that we find turns out to be a Nadaraya–Watson-like estimator, but unlike in the usual kernel smoothing situation we do not need to select a bandwidth or even a kernel function, since the score equation automatically selects the shape and the smoothing parameter for the estimation. We apply the method to a sample of electrophoretic spectra to illustrate how it works.