突变统计学刍议

突变统计学刍议彭国富史造月谢英欣ＡＢＳＴＲＡＣＴＩｔｉｓｏｆｖｅｒｙｉｍｐｏｒｔａｎｔｓｉｇｎｉｆｉｃａｎｃｅｔｏｓｅｔｕｐＭｕｔａｉｏｎＳｔａｔｉｓｔｉｃｓｆｏｒｗｉｄｅｎｉｎｇｔｈｅｒｅｓｅａｒｃｈａｒｅａｓｏｆＳｔａｔｉｓｔｉｃｓ，ｅｎｒｉｃｈ...     

期货报酬时间序列统计特征

期货报酬时间序列统计特性徐剑刚ＡＢＳＴＲＡＣＴＴｈｅｐａｐｅｒｈａｓｓｔｕｄｉｅｄｔｈｅｓｔａｔｉｓｔｉｃａｌｃｈａｒａｃｔｅｒｉｓｔｉｃｓｏｆｒｅｗａｒｄｔｉｍｅｓｅｒｉｅｓ，ａｎｄｆｏｕｎｄａｎｏｒｍａｌｉｔｙａｎｄｄｅｐｅｎｄｅｎｃｙｏｆｆｕｔ...     

说说“人口”与“人口统计”的英译名

“ｐｏｐｕｌａｔｉｏｎ”一词是常用的英语单词，我们在英译“人口”时最容易想起它。正由于此，有些人在译“人口”或与“人口”关联的词语时便一概用上“ｐｏｐｕｌａｔｉｏｎ…”或“…ｐｏｐｕｌａｔｉｏｎ”。殊不知，英文中“ｖｉｔａｌ”“ｄｅｍｏｇｒａｐｈｉｃ”二词也常常使用在“人口”和“人口统计”场合，例如ｖｉｔａｌｓｔａｔｉｓｔｉｃｓ（人口统计），ｄｅｍｏｇｒａｐｈｉｃｓｔａｔｉｓｔｉｃｓ（人口统计），ｄｅｍｏｇｒａｐｈｉｃａｎｄｓｏｃｉａｌｓｔａｔｉｓｔｉｃｓ（人口与社会统计）等。因此，有必要在此…     

《工业统计定期抽样调查试点方案》的设计

《工业统计定期抽样调查试点方案》的设计雷平静ＡＢＳＴＲＡＣＴＢａｓｅｄｏｎｔｈｅｐｒａｃｔｉｃａｌｗｏｒｋｉｎｇｅｘｐｅｒｉｅｎｃｅｉｎｔｈｅｒｅｇｕｌａｒｉｎｄｕｓｔｒｉａｌｓｔａｔｉｓｔｉｃｓｐｉ－ｌｏｔｓａｍｐｌｅｓｕｒｖｅｙｃｏｎｄｕｃｔｅｄ...     

试论统计学科体系的构造与完善

试论统计学科体系的构造与完善张宏性ＡＢＳＴＲＡＣＴＴｈｅｐａｐｅｒｄｉｓｃｕｓｅｓｔｈｅｂａｓｉｃｃｏｎｎｏｔａｔｉｏｎｓａｎｄｄｅｖｅｌｏｐｍｅｎｔｃｈａｒａｃｔｅｒｉｓｔｉｃｓｏｆｃｕｒｅｎｔｓｔａｔｉｓｔｉｃａｌｓｃｉｅｎｃｅｓ,ｔｈｅｐｒｉｎ...     

统计软件包SPSS8.0在社会经济统计中的应用

ＳＰＳＳ（ＳｔａｔｉｓｔｉｃａｌＰａｃｋａｇｅｆｏｒｔｈｅｓｏｃｉａｌｓｃｉｅｎｃｅ）社会科学统计软件包是世界上著名的统计分析软件之一。它和ＳＡＳ（Ｓｔａ－ｔｉｓｔｉｃａｌＡｎａｌｙｓｉｓＳｙｓｔｅｍ，统计分析系统）及ＢＭＤＰ（Ｂｉｏｍｅｄｉｃａｌｐ...     

统计变异分析的方法论研究

统计变异分析的方法论研究林洪ＡＢＳＴＲＡＣＴＩｔｉｓｉｎｄｉｓｐｅｎｓｉｂｌｅｃｏｎｔｅｎｔｓｔｏｄｅｔｅｒｍｉｎｅａｎｄａｎａｌｙｚｅｔｈｅｖａｒｉａｂｌｅｖａｒｉａｔｉｏｎｉｎｓｔａｔｉｓｔｉｃａｌａｐｐｌｉｃａｔｉｏｎｓｗｈｅｔｈｅｒｉｎｄｅｓ...     

转变传统观念 重视人力资本统计

转变传统观念重视人力资本统计李燕萍ＡＢＳＴＲＡＣＴＦｒｏｍｔｈｅｐｒｏｂｌｅｍｓｅｘｉｃｔｅｄｉｎｏｕｒｓｔａｔｉｓｔｉｃｓ，ｔｈｅｒｅａｓｏｎｓｆｏｒｔｈｅｓｅｐｒｏｂｌｅｍｓａｎｄｔｈｅｒｏｌｅｏｆｌａｂｏｒｃａｐｉｔａｌｉｎｔｈｅｄｅｖｅｌｏｐ...     

香港的统计教育

香港的统计教育①郭显光ＡＢＳＴＲＡＣＴＩｎ１９９７ａｎａｔｉｏｎａｌｗｉｄｅｍｅｅｔｉｎｇｗａｓｈｅｌｄｆｏｃｕｓｉｎｇｏｎｔｈｅｄｅｖｅｌｏｐｍｅｎｔｏｆｓｔａｔｉｓｔｉｃｓｅｄｕｃａｔｉｏｎｉｎｃｏｌｅｇｅｓ．Ｂａｓｅｄｏｎｔｈｅｒｅｐｏｒｔｏｆ...     

失业统计：一个尚待开发的核算领域

失业统计：一个尚待开发的核算领域杨缅昆章飚ＡＢＳＴＲＡＣＴＴｈｅｃｕｒｅｎｔｓｙｓｔｅｍｏｆｕｎｅｍｐｌｏｙｍｅｎｔｓｔａｔｉｓｔｉｃｓｉｎｏｕｒｃｏｕｎｔｒｙｍｕｓｔｂｅｒｅ－ｆｏｒｍｅｄｉｎｏｒｄｅｒｔｏｍｅｅｔｔｈｅｒｅｑｕｉｒｅｍｅｎｔｏｆｍ...     

Analysis of short-term systematic measurement error variance for the difference of paired data without repetition of measurement

The variance of short-term systematic measurement errors for the difference of paired data is estimated. The difference of paired data is determined by subtracting the measurement results of two methods, which measure the same item only once without measurement repetition. The unbiased estimators for short-term systematic measurement error variances based on the one-way random effects model are not fit for practical purpose because they can be negative. The estimators, which are derived for balanced data as well as for unbalanced data, are always positive but biased. The basis of these positive estimators is the one-way random effects model. The biases, variances, and the mean squared errors of the positive estimators are derived as well as their estimators. The positive estimators are fit for practical purpose.     

国家创新模型及评价指标体系研究

一、国家创新系统模型一个国家的技术创新,必须有效地配合以体制创新和管理创新,才能真正促进国家进步。以历史发展为例,我国早在汉唐时期就发明了火药,却在一千年后倍受拿着火枪火炮的西方列强的凌辱;在北宋时期,指南针在我国使用已相当广泛,但世界的航海历史主要是由欧洲人谱写的。我国的发明没有使我国历史进程产生跨越的原因,恐怕与体制创新与管理创新的严重滞后有关。技术创新、体制创新和管理创新是国家创新系统的基本内涵。由于意识到其重要性,从20世纪90年代以来,国内外学者对国家创新系统的研究方兴未艾。我国学术界目前对国家创新…     

Testing Whether One Regression Function is Larger Than Another

The problem of testing whether one regression function is larger than another on a specified set R is considered The regression functions must be linear functions of the parameters but need not be linear functions of the independent variables The proposed test has an exactly specified size in typical situations The test's critical value is a standard t percentile. The power function of the test is investigated.     

Estimation of Wood Fibre Length Distributions from Censored Data through an EM Algorithm

Abstract.  An expectation maximization (EM) algorithm is proposed to find fibre length distributions in standing trees. The available data come from cylindric wood samples (increment cores). The sample contains uncut fibres as well as fibres cut once or twice. The sample contains not only fibres, but also other cells, the so-called 'fines'. The lengths are measured by an automatic fibre-analyser, which is not able to distinguish fines from fibres and cannot tell if a cell has been cut. The data thus come from a censored version of a mixture of the fine and fibre length distributions in the tree. The parameters of the length distributions are estimated by a stochastic version of the EM algorithm, and an estimate of the corresponding covariance matrix is derived. The method is applied to data from northern Sweden. A simulation study is also presented. The method works well for sample sizes commonly obtained from increment cores.     

Estimation of the mutagenic potency of environmental chemicals using short-term bioassay

The Ames Salmonella test is a widely used bioassay method for assessing the mutagenic potency of a potential carcinogen. The test is quick and reliable, and exploits the correlation that exists between mutagenic potential and carcinogenic potential. The data for this case study came from an international study involving 20 laboratories in nine countries. The laboratories participated in a designed experiment in which substances (complex chemical mixtures of the type encountered in the environment) were evaluated for mutagenicity using the Ames test. A stringent protocol was followed. The study's principal aim was to investigate intra- and inter-laboratory variation in test results. The data consist of counts of revertant Salmonella colonies at each of six dose levels of a substance. The data were obtained for each of five test substances from each participating laboratory. The bioassays were carried out according to a prescribed factorial experimental design. Three sets of analysts participated in this case study. They were asked to model the dose-response relationship for two substances, to develop an index of the strength of the relationship, and to assess intra- and inter-laboratory variation in bioassay results.     

Bayesian kernel projections for classification of high dimensional data

A Bayesian multi-category kernel classification method is proposed. The algorithm performs the classification of the projections of the data to the principal axes of the feature space. The advantage of this approach is that the regression coefficients are identifiable and sparse, leading to large computational savings and improved classification performance. The degree of sparsity is regulated in a novel framework based on Bayesian decision theory. The Gibbs sampler is implemented to find the posterior distributions of the parameters, thus probability distributions of prediction can be obtained for new data points, which gives a more complete picture of classification. The algorithm is aimed at high dimensional data sets where the dimension of measurements exceeds the number of observations. The applications considered in this paper are microarray, image processing and near-infrared spectroscopy data.     

Estimating the hazard functions of two alternating recurrent events in the presence of covariates

The motivation for this paper is a cystic fibrosis data which records a patient’s times to relapse and times to cure under several recurrences of the disease. The idea is to study the impact of covariates on the hazard rates of two alternately occurring events. The dependence between the times to the two events over the different cycles is modeled through an autoregressive-type setup. The partial likelihood function is then derived and the estimators obtained. The estimators are shown to be consistent and asymptotically normal. The technique is applied to study the motivating data. A simulation study is also conducted to corroborate the results.     

Quantile regression for panel data models with fixed effects under random censoring

Abstract

The locally weighted censored quantile regression approach is proposed for panel data models with fixed effects, which allows for random censoring. The resulting estimators are obtained by employing the fixed effects quantile regression method. The weights are selected either parametrically, semi-parametrically or non-parametrically. The large panel data asymptotics are used in an attempt to cope with the incidental parameter problem. The consistency and limiting distribution of the proposed estimator are also derived. The finite sample performance of the proposed estimators are examined via Monte Carlo simulations.     

Moments and generating functions for the absortion distribution and its negative binomial analogue

The moments of the absorption are difficult to obtain. The generating functions are basic hypergeometric functions. This paper shows how to define two shift operators that allow elementary arguments to be used to develop recursions for the expected values of general functions. The exact moments of the distribution follow. The generating function for the negative binomial analogue gives the moments directly.     

Properties of the Cox–Stuart Test for Trend in Application to Hydrological Series: The Simulation Study

The size and power properties of the Cox–Stuart test for detection of a monotonic deterministic trend in hydrological time series are analyzed using the Monte Carlo method. The influence of distribution properties, lengths of series, and trend slopes is studied. Results indicate good size in all cases. The power is high for: length over 60 and strong trend slope, low or medium variation, and medium slope. The power declines if slope and length decrease and if variability increases. The properties are better for skewed distributions than for symmetrical. The test is slightly weaker in comparison to the Mann–Kendall test.