Pathways to a Third Child in Sweden

The transition from two to three children is investigated, using data on Swedish women's fertility behaviour and labour force participation over a period of some 20 years ending in 1992/93. Two questions are examined: what is the relationship between working life and childbearing of two-child mothers? Are there differences in fertility between cohabiting and married couples? Several paths to the third child are identified, one of women with a university education and another of women with preference for more children, reflected by marriage after having the first or the second child or by persistent working experience followed by household work.     

城市新型养老模式分析

目前,我国的人口增长得到了有效控制,在城市,独生子女家庭十分普遍.但是,随着独生子女父母老龄化的发展,独生子女家庭的问题日益凸显,独生子女所承担的养老任务更为艰巨.因此,迫切需要建立一个国家支持、老人以及独生子女积极参与和配合的新型城市养老模式.     

社会角色转型与生育水平变动

基于文献研究和走访调研,运用对比分析方法,考察了社会角色现代转型对人口生育水平变动的影响,认为:社会由静态封闭的传统乡村转向开放流动快速变革的现代城镇,这一变迁带来中国人社会角色整体性的根本转型:由群体转向独立,由"家人"转为"社会人",由"熟人"社会转换为"陌生人"社会,社会活动由个体素质主导取代了血缘和宗族的规模依恃;女性则由依附从属性角色走向独立自主。上述各种因素相互作用,共同促成了低生育水平社会的自生成机制,因而中国的低生育水平将难以逆转。     

Second and Third Births in Armenia and Moldova: An Economic Perspective of Recent Behaviour and Current Preferences

Little is known about fertility in Armenia and Moldova, the two countries that have both, according to national statistics, experienced very low levels of fertility during the dramatic economic, social and political restructuring in the last two decades. This article fills this gap and explores recent fertility behaviour and current fertility preferences using 2005 Demographic and Health Survey data. Educational differences in fertility decline and the association between socioeconomic indicators and fertility preferences are considered from an economic perspective. Special emphasis is given to determining whether and how diverging economic conditions in the two countries as well as crisis conditions may have influenced fertility. Second parity progression ratios (PPR) reveal a positive relationship between the degree of decline from 1990 to 2005 and education, whereas third PPR declines appear the greatest for women with both the lowest and highest education. In both countries, logistic regression results suggest that working women are more likely to want a second child, as well as want the child sooner university than later in Armenia, and the wealthiest women in Armenia have a higher odds of wanting a third child. Dual-jobless couples are less likely to want a second child in Moldova and more likely to postpone the next child in Armenia. These findings offer some insight into the shifts in fertility behaviour in these two post-Soviet countries and suggest that despite diverging economic trajectories and a lessening commitment to the two-child norm in Moldova, determinants of fertility behaviour and preferences have remained similar in both countries.     

Social Interaction Effects on Fertility: Intentions and Behaviors

The existing literature shows that the social interactions in personal networks affect individuals’ reproductive attitudes and behavior through three mechanisms: social influence, social learning, and social support. In this article, we discuss the extent to which the socio-psychological model of the Theory of Planned Behavior (TPB) takes these social mechanisms into account when used in modeling fertility intentions and behavior. We argue that by integrating all three social network mechanisms, the ability of the TPB to explain reproductive events could be enhanced in two respects. First, social influence explains why some beliefs and practices are reproduced at the individual level even in the face of macro-level changes, and social learning mechanisms are crucial to distinguish who finally adopts new behavioral beliefs and practices in response to changes at the macro level. Second, social support relationships represent a capital of services to complement institutional provision (informal child care) as well as a capital of knowledge which helps individuals navigate in a complex institutional environment, providing a crucial element to explain heterogeneity in the successful realization of fertility intentions across individuals. The integration of the three social network mechanisms into the TPB helps to address the connection between changes in what the theory indicates as background factors and variation in individual intentions and behavior. We develop specific hypotheses concerning the effect of social interactions on fertility intentions and their realization and conclude with a critical review of the existing surveys that could serve to test these hypotheses and their limits.     

Anticipated (Grand-)Parental Childcare Support and the Decision to Become a Parent

Based on a cost-reduction argument, this study explored whether anticipated childcare support from their mothers influenced adult daughters’ decisions to have their first child. Using six waves of the German Family Panel (pairfam), discrete-time hazard models (N = 3155 women) were estimated for the transition to the decision to have the first child. Anticipated childcare support from the women’s mothers was approximated by the travelling distance between adult daughters and their mothers, a measure whose suitability was tested empirically. The results indicated that women in a position to anticipate having access to childcare support in the future decided to make the transition to parenthood earlier. This finding highlights both the strength of social interaction effects on fertility decision-making and the importance of intergenerational relationships for individual fertility histories already at their very beginning.     

农村社会转型中青少年社会化问题蠡测

人的社会化是在一定的社会环境中进行的,社会环境的变化必然导致人的社会化过程中诸要素的改变。目前我国农村正处于社会转型时期,出现了农村青少年社会化过程中的"文化缺失现象"。如果听任这种现象进一步发展,势必会给农村青少年的健康成长以及社会的稳定造成难以预计的隐患。消除隐患的办法是,一要强化优秀民俗文化的教育;二要深入研究农村青少年"继续社会化"的课题。     

当前构建中国社会工作理论的基本途径

当前 ,构建中国社会工作理论的基本途径是 :认真研究马克思主义经典著作 ,从经典作家的思想宝库中寻找社会工作理论源泉 ;合理借鉴发达国家与地区已经取得的社会工作理论成果 ,从中获取某些有益的启示 ;注重中国基本实践及方法论的研究 ,及时提炼总结本土化的社会工作理论 ;加大社会工作研究的资金投入及科研力量建设 ,保证理论构建工作的有效开展     

家庭联产承包责任制、市场化改革与农村人口增长

通过实践观察和文献参阅,运用现代经济学和社会学相关理论和方法,考察分析了家庭联产承包责任制确立以来的农村人口增长状况。分析认为,因劳动力再生产成本存在的预期惯性,改革初期,农地产能释放增大了农村人口膨胀空间,集体成员均等平分土地刺激了农村人口增长;之后,延长农地承包期,稳定承包权,制约了农民的生育意愿,降低了农村生育率;家庭联产承包责任制也促进了农村人口向城市的转移。农村市场经济不断发展,社会结构由封闭转向开放,进一步降低了农村人口的生育意愿。     

非洲的环境危机和可持续发展

非洲确已出现严重的环境危机,但不同于工业化国家的环境公害,环境退化与贫困化、经济危机和社会政治不稳定共同作用、使非洲陷入以欠发展为特征的“发展陷阱”,只有实施以反贫困为突破口,把环境保护、经济发展、社会稳定和政治变革结合起来的可持续发展战略,非常才 能遏止边缘化的趋势。     

The Possible Effects of Child Survival on Women's Ages at First Union and Childbirth in Sub-Saharan Africa

Improvements in childsurvival may lead to lower fertility throughseveral pathways. To date, most studies havefocused on the physiological and replacementeffects, whose impacts are known to be modestin size. Few have examined the potentially moreimportant insurance effect on fertility withinunion, and almost none have considered thepossible relationship between child mortalityand marriage, which could also grow out of aninsurance strategy. In this study, we use datafrom 21 sub-Saharan African countries to assessthe relationship between child mortality andyoung women's ages at first marriage andchildbirth. The results show that lower levelsof mortality are strongly associated with latermarriages and first births, even aftercontrolling for the effects of a large numberof other variables. The implications of thefindings are discussed and alternativeexplanations for this relationship arepresented.     

社会经济地位、主观流动感知与育龄女性的二孩生育意愿——基于CGSS2013数据的经验研究

文章旨在通过对2013中国综合社会调查的截面数据进行回归分析,探讨育龄女性的社会经济地位、主观流动感知与其二孩生育意愿之间的关系。不同社会经济地位的育龄女性二孩生育意愿存在显著差异:受教育程度越高,二孩生育意愿越低;个人收入越高,二孩生育意愿越低;所在家庭拥有房产数量越多,育龄女性二孩生育意愿越强。不同主观流动感知的育龄女性其生育意愿之间存在显著差异:认为自己过去十年阶层上向流动的程度越高,其二孩生育意愿就越强;预期未来十年社会阶层上向流动程度越高,其二孩生育意愿就越强。     

水平井分段多簇压裂缝间干扰研究

水平井分段多簇压裂在现场得到了广泛运用，其压裂过程中普遍存在缝间干扰现象。缝间干扰有助于形成复 杂裂缝网络以提高储层导流能力，但是也会导致起裂困难，甚至形成砂堵。因此有必要对分段多簇压裂的缝间干扰问 题进行研究。对此，基于弹性力学建立了分析多簇裂缝诱导应力的数学模型，从起裂压力、裂缝宽度、簇间距等多方面 研究了缝间干扰对水平井分段多簇压裂施工的影响。模拟结果显示，诱导应力会导致起裂压力升高、裂缝变窄，严重 时将造成压裂施工失败。通过进行分析，给出了起裂过程及延伸过程中缝间干扰的影响关系。分析认为，利用缝间干 扰提高改造体积时应当控制簇间距防止对压裂施工造成负面影响。研究结论对优化水平井分段多簇压裂设计具有指 导意义。     

Economic Growth or Survival? The Problematic Case of Child Mortality in Turkey

Turkey is a country which is demographically unclassifiable because its persistently high infant mortality is out of line with its socio-economic indicators and its low fertility. The rapid modernisation of Turkey over the last three decades, which might have been expected to have had a favourable effect upon infant survival, has not in this respect lived up to expectation. The stresses resulting from economic growth and the high level of female workforce participation have perhaps tended to distract women from child care. Also, neither Ottoman nor republican Turkish traditions have encouraged an enhancement of the status of childhood.Unconventional sources: ethnology, literature, cinema, are deployed here to construct an impression of the cultural environment of the mothers, fathers and families of dead children. Change of attitudes, very slow as far as childhood is concerned, have not yet caught up with the transition in fertility. An infant mortality rate of 53 per 1000, accompanying a total fertility rate scarcely higher than 2, is a combination difficult to find anywhere else.     

Voluntary Associations and Net Fertility During the Swedish Demographic Transition

This study investigates the role of changing social relations for fertility decline during the European fertility transition. The growth of voluntary associations at the end of the nineteenth century entailed a radical shift in the landscape of social relations in Sweden. By combining micro-census data from 1890 to 1900 with local-level membership data for three voluntary association groups, this article assesses the effect of parish-level voluntary association size on net fertility in Sweden using mixed-effects Poisson regression models. The results show that the adoption of fertility limitation during the transition period was associated with the creation and diffusion of the idea of respectability within large social network organisations, an idea that has previously been shown to be connected to fertility limitation. Furthermore, by applying a social network perspective, the results show that the strength of the effect was dependent on the structure of the social networks in terms of size, density, and homogeneity. Voluntary association size had the strongest effect for the free churches, which created dense heterogeneous networks through systems of social control, while the size of the temperance association showed no effect on fertility because the connections between nodes were sparse.     

Fertility, Human Capital, and Economic Growth over the Demographic Transition

Do low fertility and population aging lead to economic decline if couples have fewer children, but invest more in each child? By addressing this question, this article extends previous work in which the authors show that population aging leads to an increased demand for wealth that can, under some conditions, lead to increased capital per worker and higher per capita consumption. This article is based on an overlapping generations (OLG) model which highlights the quantity–quality tradeoff and the links between human capital investment and economic growth. It incorporates new national level estimates of human capital investment produced by the National Transfer Accounts project. Simulation analysis is employed to show that, even in the absence of the capital dilution effect, low fertility leads to higher per capita consumption through human capital accumulation, given plausible model parameters.     

Childbearing Trends in Sweden 1961--1997

The purpose of this paper is to update a system of annual indices of birth rates and to display trends in childbearing for Swedish women over the years since 1961. Our indices are produced by applying indirect standardization to register data. They enable us to decompose the overall fertility trends, as measured by the period TFR, into its birth-order specific components. Swedish fertility has shown strong fluctuations during our study period and these fluctuations have been particularly dramatic during recent years. A postponement of the age at first birth and a sudden shift to shorter birth intervals are important components in the fertility trends. A peak in the level of childbearing at the beginning of the present decade has now been followed by a sharp drop in the propensity to give birth. This change in behaviour pertains to women of all parities.     

唐代女冠诗人的婚姻境遇及其人生选择--以李冶、鱼玄机和薛涛为中心

使唐代女性陷入婚姻困境的最大的原因是门第婚姻,出身门第族望不为时人所重的女性婚姻缔结的可选择空间被大大压缩;而且因为当时社会重视的是“贤妇”,所以身为才媛并不能在婚姻缔结上取得优势。具体考述女冠诗人的婚姻境遇,并观察她们为解脱困境所做的努力及其结果,从而理解她们人生选择的合理性和必然性,由此可以更加深入理解女冠诗歌的文本特色。     

伊朗人口政策的演变及特点

1979年伊朗伊斯兰共和国建立后,伊朗政府根据自身民族宗教文化和政治经济现实,不断调整本国的人口政策;先鼓励人口生育,提倡早婚早育,增强本国人力资源储备;两伊战争结束后,鉴于本国资源与环境压力,通过提倡和鼓励的柔性办法减少人口生育,并取得举世瞩目的成效;2005年以后,由于人口增长率下降过快,为了预防将来的老龄化危机,伊朗逐步取消限制生育的政策,目前基本改为鼓励人口生育,但在城市化和现代化的压力下,随着教育水平的提高,人们的生育愿望很低,生育成本加大,人口增长不会太快.     

以和谐理念引领大学生基层就业

大学生到基层就业是高等教育人才培养方向的指南,是大学生全面成才的途径。党和国家高度重视大学生到基层就业工作,但由于诸多方面的不协调,致使大学生基层就业难以顺利推进,造成了大学生就业难的社会问题。大学生能否充分就业,是影响社会主义和谐社会构建的重要因素。涉及大学生就业的各方都应以和谐的理念引领,通过政府提供和谐的政策支持、高校的人才培养与社会需求和谐、大学生树立与时代和谐的成才观、社会营建和谐氛围等多方联动机制,确保大学生面向基层就业工作的深入开展。