The seasonality of births in Canada: A comparison with the northern United States

This paper presents evidence that there are substantial differences in the seasonal birth patterns of Canada and the northern United States. The seasonal birth pattern in Canada is characterized by a birth peak in April–May, and a trough in December–January. The birth pattern in the northern U.S. is characterized by a trough in April–May, and a peak in August–September. The influence of climate on the birth patterns is explored in an attempt to explain the discrepancies. In both Canada and the United States, there is an inverse relationship between temperature and conceptions during the summer months. The study concludes that variation in temperature alone cannot explain the discrepancy between the birth patterns of southern Canada and the northern United States.     

Morbidity in Historical Plague Epidemics

Morbidity in plague epidemics is an almost totally neglected field of research. In the present paper the evidence is presented and related to problems currently debated. The evidence clearly indicates that plague has a strong capacity for diffusion, leading to average morbidity rates in Tuscany 1630–2 (seven communities) and southern France 1720–2 (33 communities) of 44 and 55 per cent respectively. Combined with a lethality rate of close to eight per cent as in France, an epidemic pattern emerges which may serve to explain the reduction of the population during the late middle ages. Morbidity rates did not increase with increasing population densities, but were highest in small village communities, lowest in (small) towns and at an intermediate level in cities. This pattern has previously been observed in India, but no explanation was found. It is shown that the rat-based epidemiological model could serve to explain this peculiar pattern. This conclusion is supported by the few studies in which the spread of plague throughout local communities has been analysed.     

Infant Mortality in Nine Industrial Parishes in Northern England, 1813–1836

Evidence about infant mortality in a number of industrial towns was derived from baptismal and burial registers of the Anglican Church. The level of infant mortality during the period 1813–1836, after correction for underregistration, was comparable to that of British towns during the second half of the century. Infant mortality increased during this period, perhaps as a reflection of rapid population growth. In each of the parishes a winter peak and a summer trough was found in the seasonal index of infant deaths during this period. This pattern is very different from the high summer mortality that prevailed in British towns during the late nineteenth century. However, mortality in the summer increased over time, thus reducing the depth of the summer trough in infant deaths, and perhaps represents a movement towards the summer peak so apparent later in the century.     

Modeling Seasonality in Fecundability,Conceptions, and Births

This paper develops a model of seasonal fluctuations in fecundability, conceptions, and births. We begin with a model of individual fecundability that combines behavioral and biological components, with particular attention to the roles of coital frequency, sperm concentration, fetal loss, and contraception. The individual-level model is then expanded into a model of seasonal fluctuations in births at the population level, which accounts explicitly for seasonal fluctuations in the size of the susceptible population. We illustrate the use of the model by analyzing proposed explanations of birth seasonality that rely on extreme summer heat.     

Seasonal host alternation by the andromeda lace bug,Stephanitis takeyai (Heteroptera: Tingidae) between its two main host-plant species

I studied the seasonal occurrence of the andromeda lace bug,Stephanitis takeyai, on its two main host-plant species. In a secondary forest in Kyoto, this bug altered its hosts seasonally, i.e., from an evergreen shrub,Pieris japonica, in winter to a deciduous shrub,Lyonia elliptica, in summer. In contrast, in Nara park where fewL. elliptica were available, the bug exploited onlyP. japonica. Thus, seasonal host alternation by this bug is not obligate. A comparison of adult longevity and fecundity on the two host-plant species demonstrated the higher quality ofL. elliptica as a food resource. Corresponding to this difference in host quality, there was a dramatic difference in the seasonal population growth in the two study sites. In Nara, the population size at the beginning of the 2nd generation was almost the same as in the overwintered generation, whereas in Kyoto the population size in the 2nd generation was approximately one hundred times as large as in the overwintered generation. Thus seasonal host alternation is adaptive for the bug. In a previous study, I reported that overwintering as eggs in living leaves of their hosts is likely to be common among all the related species of this bug. Thus, this trait can be considered to be a phylogenetic constraint to the group. I speculate that host alternation by this bug has been derived because it is more adaptive from autoecy on an evergreen plant, similar to the pattern currently found in Nara, and that this bug can not only exploit deciduous host due to a phylogenetic constraint.     

Exploring spatial patterns of carbon emissions in the USA: a geographically weighted regression approach

This paper uses US county-level data and the Stochastic Impacts by Regression on Population, Affluence, and Technology framework to explore the extent of geographical variability in the process that links total emissions of carbon dioxide to measures of population, affluence, and technology. Geographically weighted regression models show that there is strong evidence of spatial heterogeneity in the estimated elasticities of emissions. While this research cannot explain these regional patterns, it may provide a useful starting point to examine in detail the nature of regional variation.     

Seasonality of children's residential mobility: A research note

Parents are often advised to schedule changes of residence for the summer so that children do not change schools during the regular school year. But very little research has been done on seasonality of children's moves and whether families that move off season differ from those that move in the summer. The child supplement to the 1988 National Health Interview Survey offers an opportunity to examine the degree of seasonality of children's mobility and to analyze characteristics that increase or decrease the probability of moving during the summer months. We find that many variables included in studies of differential mobility exhibit seasonal effects, but in a multivariate model age of child (beyond 7 or 8 years old), long-distance moves, a highly educated mother, and race that is not Black most strongly raise the odds of moving in the summer.An earlier version of this paper was presented at the annual meeting of the Southern Demographic Association, New Orleans, Louisiana, 21–23 October 1993.     

Arima models of seasonal variation in U. S. birth and death rates

This paper applies methods of seasonal ARIMA time series analysis to U. S. monthly birth and death rates for January 1950–December 1978. For model selection, the conventional Box-Jenkins (1970, 1976) diagnostic checks are used in conjunction with some suggestions of Nerlove et al. (1979). This results in final models that contain significant second-order autoregressive components, as well as seasonal moving-average components, for both series. In addition, some evidence is found in the birth rate series for weekly periodicities. These findings imply the existence of a seasonal adjustment procedure that improves on the Census X-l1 program currently used by vital statistics agencies.     

The effects of temperature on human fertility

Monthly birth and temperature data for a variety of states and countries are used to estimate the effect of short-run temperature fluctuations on fertility. Regressions of monthly births on a flexible specification of lagged monthly temperature show that temperature has quantitatively important effects on both seasonal and nonseasonal variation in births. Summer temperature extremes reduce conceptions in the southern United States, explaining a substantial part of the observed seasonal birth pattern. Extreme cold shows no evidence of affecting conceptions. The results also show significant seasonality in births even after accounting for temperature. Controls for monthly temperature do not explain the persistent spring peak in births in northern Europe. This finding suggests that other factors play an important role.     

Household allocation decisions and child health: can behavioral responses to vitamin A supplementation programs explain heterogeneous effects?

Biological research predicts that giving children vitamin A supplements will significantly reduce mortality from diarrheal and respiratory infections, but evaluations of supplementation programs in the field have produced a wide range of estimated mortality effects. In this paper, I explain these differences by differential household behavioral responses to programs. I find evidence that the mortality effect varies by observable determinants of household allocation to children. Additionally, I find that households improve malaria prevention for children that receive vitamin A supplements and that this effect varies by the same household allocation determinants.     

Changes in inequality and unemployment over the 1980s: comparative cross-national responses

This paper reviews the research evidence regarding high and persistent unemployment in the western European nations and widening inequality in the United States and selected European countries. It has been suggested that both of these problems are due to fundamental economic shifts in labor demand within the more industrialized world that have led to declines in the demand for less skilled workers: The effect on countries with more regulated labor markets was rising unemployment, while in less regulated labor markets it was rising wage inequality. The paper considers the evidence for this hypothesis, as well as the research questions and policy issues that it raises.The author thanks Rebecca London and Leslie Moscow for research assistance.     

Simulating the Effects of Acculturation and Return Migration on the Maternal and Infant Health of Mexican Immigrants in the United States: A Research Note

A significant body of research on minority health shows that although Latino immigrants experience unexpectedly favorable outcomes in maternal and infant health, this advantage deteriorates with increased time of residence in the United States. This study evaluates the underlying assumptions of two competing hypotheses that explain this paradox. The first hypothesis attributes this deterioration to possible negative effects of acculturation and behavioral adjustments made by immigrants while living in the United States, and the second hypothesis attributes this deterioration to the mechanism of selective return migration. Hypothetical probabilistic models are simulated for assessing the relationship between duration and birth outcomes based on the assumptions of these two hypotheses. The results are compared with the empirical research on the maternal and infant health of first-generation, Mexican-origin immigrant women in the United States. The analysis provides evidence that a curvilinear pattern of duration and birth outcomes can be explained by the joint effects of both acculturation and selective return migration in which the former affects health status over the longer durations, and the latter affects health status at shorter durations.     

Immutability, science, and legislative debate over gay, lesbian and bisexual rights

Many gay rights advocates argued in the 1990s that scientific research claiming that sexual orientation is immutable should contribute to gaining civil rights for gays, lesbians and bisexuals. This paper analyzes ten legislative debates that took place at the local, state and federal levels over whether to adopt antidiscrimination laws, before and after the research was published. We hypothesize that if the research has had the impacts hoped for by gay rights supporters, then debates over gay rights should reflect certain changes consistent with such impacts. Although discussion of the origins of sexual orientation among legislators rose in the aftermath of the studies, we fail to find that the science had a major impact on the debate strategies pursued by either pro- or antigay rights legislators. Whether sexual orientation is immutable or a choice has not been a central claim of the two sides in the debate. Gay rights opponents even appear somewhat more willing to assert that sexual orientation is a choice after the studies than before. Furthermore, when the proponents of gay rights assert the immutability argument, they are as likely as not to invoke the cultural authority of science. We explain these outcomes by showing why the immutability issue is not of central relevance to most legislators or necessary for either side's key arguments. We also show that the scientific evidence merely supplemented a large amount of anecdotal information that legislators already possessed that spoke to the origins of sexual orientation.     

Modeling Causality Between Financial Deepening and Poverty Reduction in Egypt

This paper explores the determinants of immigration to Portugal. It is the first study to empirically evaluate an extended set of determinants to explain this new phenomenon in Portugal, a highly globalized economy and a 40-year-old democracy. This study finds evidence that the use of Portuguese as the mother tongue and prior Portuguese immigration are the main determinants of current immigration to Portugal from a given country. Depending on which subgroup is considered (refugees, students, or workers), more specific findings also arise. For refugees and foreign workers, human rights violations help explain increased immigration; for foreign students, low per capita income (in the home country) is a significant factor. Dividing the sample into Portuguese speakers and non-Portuguese speakers, we also identified the level of economic development as an important determinant for immigrants from non-lusophone countries. The military situations of the home countries were also important determinants for lusophone immigrants.     

Women’s employment, religion and multiculturalism: Socio-demographic emphasis

Giving the central focus to ‘religious affiliation’ which ‘was once at the forefront of demographic research (McQuillan 2004: 25), this paper examines the association between religion and women’s market employment. Generally speaking, gender characteristics such as high fertility and low employment levels for Muslim women in both intracountry and worldwide comparisons have been asserted in an extensive literature. The context, method and comparison groups of this study provide the opportunity to examine the longstanding debate as to whether religionper se or other determinants explain such gender characteristics in Islamic settings. It is, however, acknowledged that the present study faces limitations mainly associated with the selectivity of migrants. Using logistic regression and the multicultural context of Australia containing a substantially diverse ethnic composition of Muslims, this paper highlights Muslim/non-Muslim employment differentials. The paper also analyses the employment level of Muslim women across the regions of origin representing various contexts in order to provide empirical evidence to examine the above debate.     

Changes in Well-Being: Complementing a Psychosocial Approach with Neurobiological Insights

The sustainability of changes in well-being achieved via positive interventions is challenged by findings that happiness levels are constrained by a homeostatic set-point. In this paper, we propose that while generally stable, the neurological and psychophysiological bases of well-being demonstrate plasticity. The neurobiological underpinnings of the hedonic component of well-being are first reviewed, demonstrating the value of both central (such as frontal asymmetry) and peripheral (such as heart rate variability) indices. Convergent evidence that certain well-being interventions are capable of modifying subjective, central and peripheral indices of positive affect or regulation of negative affect is then reported, although there is a clear need for longitudinal research to demonstrate the longevity of changes. It is recommended that a multi-level approach to evaluating positive interventions incorporating subjective psychosocial and neurobiological indices of affective change is adopted by researchers in an attempt to identify interventions most likely to achieve sustained positive outcome. Accumulating evidence through rigorous research that positive interventions can enhance psychosocial and neurophysiological factors can provide a compelling case for more widespread dissemination through public health policy.     

Why does class matter? Policy attitudes,mechanisms, and the case of the Nordic countries

In most democracies, classes tend to vary with respect to an array of attitudes and behaviours, and differences are large within a number of European polities. What mechanisms lie behind these differences? Do they relate primarily to individuals’ material interests, as assumed by traditional class theories, or instead, to socialization and self-selection factors? This paper seeks to extend theory and research through an analysis of mechanisms behind class differences in policy attitudes. Our focus is on the Nordic countries, where class differences are extensive and well-documented in past scholarship. We take advantage of high-quality European Social Survey data for Denmark, Finland, Norway, and Sweden. Analyzing three policy arenas and the 9-category European Socio-economic Classification scheme (ESeC), we find evidence that class-related factors help to explain cleavages in attitudes. Comparisons with the more detailed, 103-category International Standard Classification of Occupation scheme (ISCO) suggest that these factors explain less “micro-class” occupational variation. Results shed new light on mechanisms behind class differences, and the empirical foundations of established class theories. These and other implications are discussed in the conclusion.     

‘Running on sandcastles’: energising the rhythmanalyst through non-representational ethnography of a running event

ABSTRACT

This article conducts an analysis that is informed by rhythmanalysis and non-representational ethnography of a five-day seasonal running event – Etape Bornholm – that takes place on the Danish holiday island of Bornholm during the summer school holiday. Firstly, I argue that rhythmanalysis in practice pays lip service to biological rhythms and is insufficiently corporeal, mobile or sensuous. In contrast, I energise the rhythmanalyst by outlining a perspective where the rhythmanalyst literally listens to his or her heartbeat and internal rhythms. I address this sensuous paucity in rhythm studies by connecting it with non/more-than-representational theories and ethnographies. Secondly, I advance landscape studies, sport geography and tourist studies by examining runners’ bodily ways of practising and sensing landscapes during races. More broadly, this article contributes to ongoing debates in tourist studies on how tourists corporeally engage with and sense landscapes.     

Education,inequality and electoral participation

In comparative terms, Italian electoral turnout has been very high since 1946. However, during the five elections from 1994 to 2008, turnout dropped more steeply than it did over the previous 12 elections from 1946 to 1992. The difference between maximum turnout in the early 1950s and the 2008 election was about 12%, and most of this decline (8%) occurred in the period 1992–2008. This paper finds robust evidence that individual and contextual social inequalities have been key factors in the recent fall of turnout. In particular our results clearly suggest that contextual social inequality lowers the turnout of less-educated voters and leaves it unaffected among high-educated ones. The recent decline in turnout may therefore be indicative of an important shift towards more unequal political participation. These findings are consistent with data showing that the post-1994 parties performed very poorly as mobilisation agencies compared with the old parties. Indeed, according to Franklin (2004), turnout trends can be effectively explained by changes in institutional rules and by the degree of electoral competitiveness. This paper suggests that, in order to explain turnout trends, the interactive effects of social and individual inequality should also be considered.     

Seasonal migration and seasonal variation in fecundabillty: Effects on birth rates and birth intervals

Seasonal patterns in conception rates have been documented in several recent studies. In this paper, a mathematical model of the reproductive process is developed through which the impact of such variation in conception rates is assessed. It is found that the effect on fertility can be quite substantial, but that the birth rate when seasonal variation is occurring is approximated well by the birth rate calculated when conception rates are constant at their mean. These results indicate that further documentation of seasonality in conception rates and exploration of the causes of these patterns and their change is an important area for demographic research.