Technology assessment: Need and motivation of industry

The problems of decision making when the decision concerns large-scale technical plants have increased, largely due to the difficulties of assessing environmental factors. Technology assessment is an approach which can assist in undertaking the necessary analysis which will expose the social impact, participation of affected groups, and the evaluation of political processes for large-scale technical developments. This paper examines the obstacles to the use of Technology assessment techniques by industry and in particular concentrates upon the problems of forecasting future technological change. The paper examines the view that TA is primarily a concept of political decision making and places the concepts of politics in the broadest sense, not merely in a narrow partly political framework. Finally, the paper examines the arguments for and against quantitative evaluation and claims that TA, used properly, can provide valuable qualitative as well as quantitative insights into the impact of processes upon the political, social and economic environment. Thus, suggesting that TA is a technique of forecasting which companies that are involved in the development of major, and therefore heavy resource-consuming, projects should consider the use of this technique as part of their appraisal process.     

能源价格波动、诱导性技术进步与中国环境全要素生产率

随着能源的"金融属性"日益凸显,科学评估能源价格波动对经济增长和环境改善的综合影响具有重要的理论和现实意义。本文基于参数化的双曲线距离函数,将能源价格因素纳入环境全要素生产率（ETFP）的分析框架,剖析能源价格波动影响ETFP变动的内在机理;在此基础上,运用1995~2015年省际面板数据,考察能源价格诱导性技术进步对我国ETFP提升的促进作用及其时空分异规律,并识别该技术进步的具体偏向类型。研究结果表明：近20年来我国能源价格诱导性技术进步的平均速率为0.22%,其对ETFP变动的提升作用相对较弱,并表现出较强的时空分异特征。此外,从要素投入来看,能源价格诱导性技术进步总体上呈现资本和能源节约—劳动力使用型特征;从产出侧来看,其主要偏向于SO₂的减排,但对CO₂减排和GDP扩张的诱导作用不甚明显。     

效用型Malmquist指数方法及火电类上市公司实证分析

文章定义了一种基于距离函数的效用型Malmquist指数,并将其分解为技术效率、技术进步、配置效率和系统外生效应等多个指标,该指数采用"期望效用最大"而非"期望产出最大"的优化原则寻找最优决策单元。该指数适用于寡头垄断行业或需要综合考虑经济效益、社会影响的社会公共品行业。最后以2006到2007年中国火电类上市公司进行实证分析,证明与投入型Malmquist指数相比,效用型Malmquist指数评价结果更为客观,经济解释更加明确。     

Clean technologies in German economic literature: a bibliometric analysis

Over the past two decades, clean technologies (cleantech) have emerged as an important economic factor with remarkable progress. Fueled by growing concerns about climate change and diminishing fossil fuel resources, governments have put aggressive stimulus packages in place to support emerging technologies that drive cleantech businesses. The industry operates in highly regulated market conditions which in turn raises the question of whether economists have addressed private and public information requirements. To answer this question and to explore the relationship between environmental economics and clean technologies, this paper examines German literature using co-citation analysis methods. Based on the co-citation analysis of 588 documents, our results suggest that researchers have provided a rather small and fragmented set of business knowledge for the cleantech industry. Despite its economic and environmental importance, research on the private use and economic impact of cleantech remains scarce.     

基于两阶段博弈模型的钢铁行业碳强度减排机制研究

减少温室气体排放,高耗能行业将承担主要的减排任务,不同的减排机制对减排任务在不同技术水平的企业间分配和减排成本影响不同,而且对企业竞争力和社会福利有影响。本文构造了一个两阶段动态博弈模型,以两个代表性钢铁企业(东部和西部)为研究对象,来考察在完成一定减排目标前提下,政府设置统一碳税和差异化碳税对减排成本、社会经济福利、企业竞争力等的影响。实证结果表明:统一碳税下,钢铁行业产量降幅较小,行业减排任务分解的更加平均,西部钢铁企业竞争力损失较小;差异税下,实现既定减排目标的减排成本较小;社会经济福利损失较小,且随着减排目标的不断升高,两种碳税下社会经济福利损失之差有拉大的趋势;东部钢铁企业竞争力提高幅度较大,但对西部钢铁企业的负面影响十分明显。因此,在碳税机制设计时应充分考虑不同税率模式对减排任务分解、钢铁行业产量、社会经济福利以及企业竞争力的具体影响,需要在社会成本较低和个体企业的竞争力受影响较小之间进行权衡。     

The impact of social class on top managers’ attitudes towards employee downsizing

In this paper, we examine the impact of top managers' social class on their attitude towards employee downsizing. Mobilizing Bourdieu's concepts of social class as a unique social position defined by the combination of economic, cultural, and social capital, we develop hypotheses about the effects of different capital endowments, which we test with unique data on more than 2500 top managers in Germany. We find that both higher economic and higher social capital increase openness towards employee dismissals, while higher cultural capital reduces it. We also find that the overall effect of a top manager's social position is an aggregate of the effects of the individual types of capital: Managers with high cultural, low social and low economic capital are least open to employee dismissals, while those with low cultural, high social and high economic capital are most open – with the other combinations lying somewhere between the two extremes.     

National policy making in a global economy: The case for U.S. economic planning

In 1980 the Joint Economic Committee completed the Special Study on Economic Change. This 20 volume, 3-year project, was premised on the fact that: ‘fundamental economic, social, political, international and technical conditions have changed, and are still changing markedly’. This suggests that conventional wisdom and established economic tools may not be equal to meeting the challenge of making sound policies in the economic sphere. The so-called laws of economics have not been repealed, but all guiding principles presuppose a certain environment of conditions, customs and practices—and when these change, the implementation of new policies and the modes of adjustment have to change also. This paper examines the problem of devising policy instruments for economic management, identifying the facts of the changing economic environment and the main difficulties facing world economic development.     

社会资本、组织学习与组织创新的关系研究

近年来,学者对社会资本是否以及如何提升企业的竞争力问题进行了大量的研究,但社会资本对组织学习以及组织创新的影响却鲜有学者关注.本文以我国珠三角地区企业为调查对象,对社会资本、组织学习与组织创新之间的关系进行实证研究.结果表明,组织的内部社会资本对组织学习有显著的直接影响,外部社会对技术创新也有显著的直接影响.组织学习对组织技术创新和管理创新都有显著的直接影响.而且技术创新对管理创新也有直接的正向影响,本文的结果进一步拓展了组织学习与组织创新的相关理论,对企业知识管理与创新管理实践也有重要的指导意义.     

社会资本结构与中小企业创新--一项基于结构方程模型的实证研究

本文针对中小企业核心竞争力的关键问题——创新展开分析,根据我国中小企业的组织特征,在综合分析了国外有关企业创新理论的基础上,我们提出了中小企业基于社会资本的创新理论,在传统创新理论解释变量集中加入了企业规模,并区分了社会资本构成的两大因素:结构性社会资本和认知性社会资本;在问卷调查的基础上,通过探索性因素分析和结构方程建模(SEM),对我国中小企业技术创新影响因素进行了结构测量和机理分析,认为:(1)中小企业的创新结构和知识管理水平受到结构性、认知性社会资本和企业人力资本的综合影响;(2)中小企业认知性社会资本既直接地、又通过影响企业的结构化社会资本间接地影响了企业的技术创新水平,显示出社会资本对中小企业创新的影响存在明显的分层结构和不同路径。     

Simulating alternative organizational structures of production systems

Changes in international competition lead to changes of the requirements on production enterprises. The introduction of new production technologies does not seem to be exclusively an adequate reaction to the increasing problems. Therefore tools of computer-integrated production (CIM) and new organizational concepts have to be conceived. Because these organizational and technical means are linked on the one hand with severe changes in the production system and, on the other hand, with rather higher economic risks in their realization, the effects have to be estimated in advance in the planning stage. Consideration of dynamical system behaviour plays an important part because the main goal is the improvement of order processing. This paper presents a simulation program, which can be used during the design phase of the organizational structure of production systems as a powerful tool for predicting the effects of new computer-aided tools and structures.     

“Not in (or Under) My Backyard”: Geographic Proximity and Public Acceptance of Carbon Capture and Storage Facilities

Carbon capture and storage (CCS) is an innovative technical approach to mitigate the problem of climate change by capturing carbon dioxide emissions and injecting them underground for permanent geological storage. CCS has been perceived both positively, as an innovative approach to facilitate a more environmentally benign use of fossil fuels while also generating local economic benefits, and negatively, as a technology that prolongs the use of carbon‐intensive energy sources and burdens local communities with prohibitive costs and ecological and human health risks. This article extends existing research on the “not in my backyard” (NIMBY) phenomenon in a direction that explores the public acceptance of CCS. We utilize survey data collected from 1,001 residents of the coal‐intensive U.S. state of Indiana. Over 80% of respondents express support for the general use of CCS technology. However, 20% of these initial supporters exhibit a NIMBY‐like reaction and switch to opposition as a CCS facility is proposed close to their communities. Respondents’ worldviews, their beliefs about the local economic benefits that CCS will generate, and their concerns about its safety have the greatest impact on increasing or decreasing the acceptance of nearby facilities. These results lend valuable insights into the perceived risks associated with CCS technology and the possibilities for its public acceptance at both a national and local scale. They may be extended further to provide initial insights into likely public reactions to other technologies that share a similar underground dimension, such as hydraulic fracturing.     

Energy modelling for technology assessment: the MARKAL approach

The primary objective of energy policy in many countries is to change the structure of their energy systems so as to reduce the dependence on imported oil. A large amount of funds is spent on energy research and development. The technologies competing for such funds have widely varying characteristics. These relate to costs and benefits, technical performance, environmental effects, the requirements for land, water and materials and the impact on employment. It is necessary to analyse these effects in some detail before decisions on technology programmes can be made. A complete assessment of the possible value of a particular technology cannot be made on an individual basis. It is necessary to consider many technologies simultaneously, competing against each other for various shares of the energy market. However, analysing the behaviour of the entire energy system requires the handling of an extensive amount of data and can only be done effectively with the help of a computerised system. The model, MARKAL, described in this paper is a multi-period linear programming model which has been developed and applied by 15 OECD countries for the purpose of energy technology research and development planning. Examples of the use of the model for this purpose are given both for the group as a whole and for individual countries. The model is structured so that an exogenously specified set of end-use demands must be satisfied given available technologies and energy supplies. The model allows for substitution possibilities in both the energy supply and demand sectors. A feature of the model is the use of varying objective functions such as minimum discounted costs, oil imports, or environmental effluents. These can be used individually or in combination in trade-off situations. The broader question of the use of energy modelling for technology assessment, including its limitations, is also discussed with particular reference to the insights that can be gained from the MARKAL model. Information from the MARKAL model has been used by the International Energy Agency to assist it in formulating a strategy for energy research development and demonstration.     

Future management research directions in nanotechnology: A case study

Leading experts believe that advances in nanotechnology will lead to dramatic changes in the way materials, devices and systems are understood and created. Generalizations about nanotechnology-based innovations abound in technical circles and in the media, where they are typically described as radical, their anticipated impact on firms as disruptive, and their effect on society as transformative. To-date, no articles have been published in peer-reviewed technology management research journals on the subject. This paper suggests that nanotechnology is a general purpose technology and that, as such, its applications will spread through many economic sectors with varying magnitudes and forms of impact on existing firms and industries. This paper also demonstrates how the innovation management literature can be used to guide further research aimed at anticipating the magnitude and nature of the impact of specific nanotechnology-based innovations.     

A Holistic Framework for Trust in Online Transactions

This paper systematically reviews previous studies of trust from social, economic and technological perspectives and develops a holistic framework for trust, which can be used to analyse the establishment and maintenance of trust in online transactions, and identify the mechanisms that can be used to increase trust. Trust plays a crucial role in the formation of dependent relationships represented by online transactions, and a holistic treatment of trust is necessary because of the gap that exists between the developments in information systems and our understanding of their social and economic implications, and the impact on the perceived trust of the transacting parties. This review enables us to depict an online transaction through its attributes and context, and systematically map these to identified trust antecedents. The key components and processes of the framework are outlined, and three strands of empirical work are discussed to develop it further. The framework highlights the critical role of institutions in the establishment and maintenance of trust in online transactions, which informs the development of e‐commerce and e‐business platforms and the underpinning information systems, and facilitates the establishment of mechanisms to induce additional institutions to increase trust in online transactions.     

主导企业适应突破性技术变革的整合研究

突破性技术变革的频率正在不断加快,而主导企业在技术范式的转换过程中却经常遭遇绩效下滑甚至被新进入企业所替代.本研究认为,主导企业能否适应技术变革取决于三个因素的平衡和交互作用:技术投资、技术能力以及互补性资产,在考察技术变革所带来的竞争含义时强调综合考虑多个视角的重要性.此外,作者根据这些因素提供了三种应对机制:利用实物期权方法进行技术投资、利用自主事业单位开发新技术,以及利用互补性资产与突破性技术发起企业建立战略联盟.     

The Role of Interdisciplinary Analysis in Bridging the Gap Between the Technical and Human Sides of Risk Assessment1

It is readily observable that there is a wide gulf between the manner by which the lay public and the manner by which technical experts assess the risks of complex technologies and assimilate these assessments in decisions regarding the acceptance or rejection of technological options. On the public side, this gap in methods and value assessments is a major source of distrust of technical experts and disaffection with the social management of technology. From the viewpoint of the technical experts who introduce or regulate technologies, this gap is both a cauldron of frustration and a perceived justification for paternalistic technocratic decision-making that further alienates important segments of the public. It is the author's belief that unless our society learns how to progress in bridging these gaps within the framework of a comparative mode of risk-cost-benefit analysis of options, the potential net benefits of certain technologies such as commercial nuclear power could well be lost to our society. Research on public risk perception, while potentially an important component in achieving this objective, needs to be restructured from its present static orientation to meet the needs of forward-looking decision-making that accommodates dynamic learning processes of both the public and technical experts as well as the “learning curves” of technological improvements historically accompanying successful innovations. Moreover, no less attention needs to be devoted to improved benefit assessment along with ethical and equity considerations in decision-making involving the reconciliation of conflict between individual and societal interests. This paper examines the vital importance of interdisciplinary analysis in fulfilling these needs.     

Towards a socio-oecotechnology

The paper will attempt to demonstrate that within the broad ambit of the socio-technical model there is scope for development and for a degree of innovation. Two aspects of the model will be progressed and to some extent integrated. Firstly, I will argue that the joint optimisation (JtO) concept has not been elaborated and emphasised as much as it deserves and it needs to be sharply differentiated from the widely used notion of maximisation. Secondly, using JtO, I will extend the two system socio-technical model to a troika model by including the impact of technology on the oecological environment.¹ To obtain the best overall results, JtO has to be achieved between three systems: the social, the technical and the oecological. In this way, the extended model will engage with the public’s rapidly growing awareness of environmental hazards for which it frequently blames technologies. This extension also raises the socio-technical model from the micro- to the meso- and macro-level which was always the intention of the early pioneers. These theoretical developments will be treated heuristically and briefly illustrated by two case examples from recent research.     

Effects of key enabling technologies for seru production on sustainable performance

Demand uncertainty, economic globalization, and environmental deterioration force factories to innovate their manufacturing systems for achieving sustainable performance. Seru production, which is the latest manufacturing mode developed in Japan, attracts broad attention from both academia and practitioners. The overwhelming majority of existing works on seru production focus on economic performance unilaterally, while neglecting the environmental and social performance. This paper investigates the effects of key enabling technologies for seru production on sustainable performance. Firstly, four key enabling technologies for seru production are identified through systematic review, and an evaluation indicator system of sustainable performance in the context of seru production is developed. Then, the hypotheses about the effects of the identified key enabling technologies for seru production on sustainable performance are proposed on the basis of previous research achievements, theoretical analysis, and practical observations. Finally, the hypotheses are tested through structural equation modeling. Except for two hypotheses which are not supported and one which is indirectly supported, all other hypotheses are verified. The research results show that the four key enabling technologies for seru production have different effects on the three dimensions of sustainable performance. The achievements of this work are of significance to improve the comprehensive understanding of seru production, as well as to develop practical methods to implement sustainable operations.     

人口老龄化、金融资产结构与宏观经济波动效应

本文构建了一个包含平均年龄异质性家庭和创新异质性企业的动态随机一般均衡模型,模拟分析人口老龄化对宏观经济的冲击效应得出:随着中国人口老龄化程度的提高,家庭持有的流动性金融资产占金融总资产的比例上升、资本性金融资产所占比重逐渐下降,从而引起宏观金融结构的变动;中国人口老龄化引发的金融结构变动将导致劳动减少、消费减少、产出降低,甚至影响企业创新投资降低,进而导致高投资的经济增长模式发生变化。研究结论的政策含义在于:劳动增长依赖、投资增长依赖、技术模仿依赖都难以为继,经济高质量发展的动力应集中到创新方面,激励企业技术创新是市场机制改革的重要方向,引导市场资金对技术创新型企业的投资支持,同时应避免企业技术创新投资的剧烈上涨造成经济震荡。