Unemployment and Business Cycles

We develop and estimate a general equilibrium search and matching model that accounts for key business cycle properties of macroeconomic aggregates, including labor market variables. In sharp contrast to leading New Keynesian models, we do not impose wage inertia. Instead we derive wage inertia from our specification of how firms and workers negotiate wages. Our model outperforms a variant of the standard New Keynesian Calvo sticky wage model. According to our estimated model, there is a critical interaction between the degree of price stickiness, monetary policy, and the duration of an increase in unemployment benefits.     

On Labor Policies Affecting Investment in General Human Capital

Abstract. This paper develops a search model including workers’ investments in general human capital and investigates the effects of labor policies such as subsidies to human capital investment and unemployment benefits on the accumulation of human capital. It is shown that the equilibrium is not optimal because workers underinvest in human capital or firms open too many vacancies in comparison with the number of unemployed workers. Comparative statics show that an increase in subsidies to human capital investment adds to the number of vacancies per unemployed worker and to workers’ investments in human capital and that an increase in unemployment benefits decreases them. Finally, labor policies that remove the distortion are explored.     

考虑技术投资的供应链网络下可交易污染排放许可均衡问题

构建了包含多污染物、多污染接收点的供应链网络,考虑了生产技术和减排技术投资,对可交易的污染排放许可下的供应链网络进行了均衡分析,给出了变分不等式框架,建立了均衡模型。模型明确地处理了空间差异,同时保证了通过初始污染排放许可分配就可达到指定的环境标准。提出了模型的求解算法,最后利用提出的模型及算法对算例进行了计算,得到利润最大化下供应链网络中各工厂的产品生产量、排放量、污染排放许可的均衡分配额和污染排放许可的交易价格、技术最优投资额,并分析了成本函数参数以及工厂数量的变化对生产技术投资和减排技术投资的影响。     

Measuring the Cost of the Fear of Unemployment: An Information Approach

A method of measuring the insecurity costs of unemployment or what might be termed the fear of unemployment effect is proposed. The approach is from an individual perspective and builds on a cost measure first suggested by Lucas. The measure is designed to abstract away from any output losses that might be incurred in a recession. The latter is the traditional Keynesian way of measuring recession costs. The paper demonstrates the intuitively sensible properties of the measure and argues that to neglect the fear of unemployment effect as is done with standard Keynesian cost measures could seriously underestimate recession costs for some individual types. The paper concludes with a multiperiod simulation of the insecurity cost measure.     

The Value of Production Schedule Integration in Supply Chains

This study explores the value of integrated production schedules for reducing the negative effects of schedule revisions in supply chains involving buyer and supplier firms. A stochastic cost model is developed to evaluate the total supply chain cost with integrated purchasing and scheduling policies. The model minimizes the costs associated with assembly rate adjustment, safety stock, and schedule changes for all supply chain members. Through experimentation, the paper examines the impact of several environmental factors on the value of schedule integration. This study finds that schedule integration can lead to overall cost savings in a supply chain, but some firms may have to absorb costs in excess of those they would incur with independent scheduling. Environments with high inventory holding costs and long supplier lead times may not find it beneficial to adopt an integrated schedule. Forecast effectiveness plays a critical role in realizing the benefits of schedule integration. The paper concludes with suggestions for future research.     

Manpower and unemployment in the U.K.

The subject of the changing pattern and levels of unemployment in the United Kingdom is a matter which has been receiving much attention. This paper examines some of the underlying trends and the related factors which have been creating those trends. The author does not only concentrate on the economic factors but also on the educational and social factors which have led to changes in the supply of and demand for labour. Indeed, some of the more interesting aspects of the relationship between the public and the private sector and the relative patterns of demand and supply of labour, and the causes of that supply are also examined. The author places the study in an international context and, albeit rather gloomily, does show us that this is not a problem unique to the U.K. Finally, the paper examines some of the possible remedies to the situation and outlines the need for examining rather more clearly the balance between capital and labour and, perhaps more fundamentally, the growing problem of the concentration of British industry. This paper does not aim to answer all the questions created by a relative economic decline and the growing problems of unemployment, particularly amongst the under-25 age group, but it does set out the problem and some possible solutions.     

THE RETURN OF THE WAGE PHILLIPS CURVE

The standard New Keynesian model with staggered wage setting is shown to imply a simple dynamic relation between wage inflation and unemployment. Under some assumptions, that relation takes a form similar to that found in empirical wage equations—starting from Phillips’ (1958) original work—and may thus be viewed as providing some theoretical foundations to the latter. The structural wage equation derived here is shown to account reasonably well for the comovement of wage inflation and the unemployment rate in the US economy, even under the strong assumption of a constant natural rate of unemployment.     

碳税政策下闭环供应链网络均衡分析

针对由多个制造/再制造工厂和多个需求市场构成的闭环供应链网络，考虑两种碳税政策：单一比例碳税政策和超额累进碳税政策，分别量化两种碳税政策下工厂需支付的碳税，分析两种碳税政策下闭环供应链网络各成员企业的均衡条件，建立闭环供应链网络均衡模型，提出修正投影算法求解模型，最后，通过算例，对比分析两种碳税政策对闭环供应链网络成员企业新产品产量、网络间正向/逆向产品交易量、需求、价格、减排投资、碳排放量、碳税及成员利润的影响。     

Descrepancies between Supply and Demand and Adjustment Processes in the Labour Market

Changes in demand and supply in segments of the labour market will affect the labour market position of workers with an educational background in a related field of study. In one economic tradition such discrepancies between supply and demand are thought to lead to unemployment in the case of excess supply and to unfilled vacancies or skill shortages in the case of excess demand. The other neo‐classical oriented tradition expects wage adjustments to take fully account of these labour market imbalances, leading to higher wages for studies with excess demand and lower wages in case of excess supply. In practice the labour market might, on the one hand, be more flexible than suggested by the first approach, but on the other hand adjustment might be incomplete and not only wages but also other aspects of the employment relationship might be affected by a friction between supply and demand. This study examines the relationship between discrepancies between labour demand and supply on the one hand and manifestations of these tensions in the labour market experience of school‐leavers on the other hand. To investigate this relationship, a random coefficient model has been used, which allows for different adjustment processes for the various educational types, but still makes full use of all the information available in the data. The analyses provide insights about the importance of different adjustment processes and their complementarity and substitutability. We show that on average, supply surpluses lead to pressure to accept jobs at a level which is lower than the school‐leavers educational level, jobs with relatively low wages, and jobs with part‐time contracts. A direct link between supply surpluses and unemployment is only found for a few specific fields of study. Unemployment seems to occur mostly when school‐leavers do not take temporary jobs or jobs below their educational level in case of excess supply.     

Exchange rate variations and the behaviour of the purchasing department

When the risk of a devaluation is high this is likely to affect the purchasing behaviour of firms importing goods from abroad. A model is developed which shows optimal purchasing and inventory policies for firms in that situation. Another model is developed for the case when the value of a currency is changing gradually over time. The results derived in the first model are tested against empirical data from 23 large firms in Sweden and 23 subsidiaries of Swedish firms operating in different countries. The studies refer to the behaviour of the firms before and after the devaluation of the Swedish crown by 10% in August 1977.     

我国通货膨胀动态和货币政策效果的行为宏观解释

对中国1990～2005年季度数据的SVAR分析显示,货币政策的通胀效果是滞后的,而且通货膨胀表现出惯性的特征。本文通过对当前两类主流宏观模型的模拟发现:完全前瞻的新凯恩斯主义粘性价格模型不符合货币冲击的历史效果,而Mankiw等提出的粘性信息模型则具有更强的合理性。这一理论解释力方面存在的差别主要源自,新凯恩斯主义粘性信息模型保持着理性预期假设,而粘性信息模型对理性预期完全信息进行了放松。因此,粘性信息模型行为宏观经济模型为我国货币政策效果讨论和最优货币政策研究提供了更好的理论基础。     

创新支点还是保守枷锁：绿色供应链管理实践如何撬动企业绩效？

现有研究表明,绿色供应链管理实践和绿色创新均对企业绩效产生显著影响,但缺乏对上述三者内部关系的深入阐释。本文基于知识基础观,从动态开放视角分别引入双元知识搜索和绿色社会资本两个变量,构建三阶调节中介效应模型,探究企业绿色供应链管理实践对绿色创新和企业绩效之间深层次的作用机制。研究结果显示：绿色供应链管理实践撬动企业绩效增长的关键在于绿色创新在两者之间发挥中介作用;同时依赖于双元知识搜索对该中介作用的调节效应,且上述双元知识搜索的调节效应受绿色社会资本的再次正向调节。本文从理论上延伸了绿色供应链管理研究范畴;从实践上为企业从绿色供应链管理实践中获益提供借鉴和指导。     

Labour Market and Decentralized Decision-making: An Institutional Approach

The persistent failure in the labour market is due to uncertainty and asymmetric information, and relies on a reconsideration of the bargaining process. This process is not generated by individual action but rather by the behaviour of social groups and institutions in which State intervention can immprove the efficiency in matching demand and supply. In this framework we will discuss the ways by which institutional decentralization can be implemented in a labour market characterized by deep regional differences and by long-term unemployment persistence as in Italy. The main conclusion is that this policy option better fits the active labour policies. In fact the actual aim of such supply-side policies is to reduce the regional and skill mismatches and therefore it needs a substantial involvement of local public agencies.     

Uncertainty and Unemployment

This paper studies the impact of time‐varying idiosyncratic risk at the establishment level on unemployment fluctuations over 1972–2009. I build a tractable directed search model with firm dynamics and time‐varying idiosyncratic volatility. The model allows for endogenous separations, entry and exit, and job‐to‐job transitions. I show that the model can replicate salient features of the microeconomic behavior of firms and that the introduction of volatility improves the fit of the model for standard business cycle moments. In a series of counterfactual experiments, I show that time‐varying risk is important to account for the magnitude of fluctuations in aggregate unemployment for past U.S. recessions. Though the model can account for about 40% of the total increase in unemployment for the 2007–2009 recession, uncertainty alone is not sufficient to explain the magnitude and persistence of unemployment during that episode.     

The impact of manufacturing and supply chain improvement initiatives: A survey comparing make-to-order and make-to-stock firms

Manufacturing firms aim at improving both internal and external processes to improve the competitive advantage. Such initiatives include lean practices as well as supplier rationalization and integration. In this paper, we analyze these improvement initiatives and their impact on business performance. In particular, we explore potential differences between make-to-order (MTO) and make-to-stock (MTS) firms. We use data from 216 Australian manufacturing firms. We find a clear difference of improvement focus between MTO and MTS firms. MTO firms exhibit a significant impact of supplier integration on business performance, but not for lean practices and supplier rationalization. The situation is completely reversed for MTS firms, since they have significant effects for internal lean practices and supplier rationalization, but not for logistics integration with supplier. The results show that the distinction between MTO and MTS firms is important when analyzing manufacturing and supply chain improvement initiatives.     

Longitudinal Analysis of Employment and Unemployment Based on Matched Rotation Samples

ABSTRACT: The purpose of this paper is to provide methodology to fit longitudinal data on employment and unemployment generated by the rotation sampling schemes of national labour force surveys. The proposed methodology, referred to as infinite-lag Markov models, is a generalisation of autoregressive Markov models developed for application in stochastic reservoir theory (Pegram 1980, Raftery 1985). Infinite-lag Markov chains have infinite memory and, therefore, can usefully serve to model labour supply behaviour taking into account, in principle, the complete past work experience of individuals, and not just the most recent past or the most recent spell. After a brief review of the rotation sampling schemes of 20 national labour force surveys, the different types of longitudinal sequences that can be obtained from the rotation schemes are examined. A review of various models proposed in the literature for analysing longitudinal data on employment and unemployment, expressed under simplified assumptions and in discrete forms, set the stage for the formulation of the proposed infinite-lag Markov model. The method is illustrated using matched longitudinal data derived from the US Current Population Survey.     

SCOR model application in developing countries: challenges & requirements

Due to the changes in the nature of business and competition from company versus company to supply chain versus supply chain, the importance of improving the entire supply chain holistically is becoming an increasingly important topic in recent studies. Industry practitioners and academics are focusing on developing a modelling tool for this purpose. However, such efforts were unsuccessful. The main reasons for failure are that the existing models are developed and tested based on the experiences of manufacturing firms in the developed world. The nature of the existing firms, their operating and business processes situation in developing countries vary greatly from the manufacturing processes and the surrounding environment in developed countries. However, the absence of an agreed upon, common language and standardised modelling tools for the entire supply chains hampers the global supply chain improvement initiatives. This paper focuses on addressing the issue of a how standardised and widely accepted model, like the SCOR, can be applied despite the different circumstances. The firms’ supply chain characteristics and new requirement for the model adaptation were collected based on the available literature and field analysis results. The research paper results focus on the make and delivery processes for illustration and evaluation.     

基于临期回收和响应供给策略的易逝性应急物资库存决策研究

基于降低由于需求时间和需求数量的不确定性会引致较高的过期损失和缺货损失,将临期回收策略和响应供给策略引入易逝性应急物资库存系统,同时考虑应急系统中需求时间不确定性的这一突出特性,建立临期回收策略和应急供给策略的随机规划模型,决策临期回收策略和响应供给策略下的最佳存储水平,并分析各策略带来的风险降低和价值增加。回收策略和应急供给策略并不都是有利的,存在着降低风险和增加价值的有利条件域;库存决策需要权衡风险的降低与价值的增加,给定一个判断标准;需求时间和需求数量的不同随机分布对策略的价值增加作用有不同的影响,且分布的不确定性程度对价值增加的影响不具有一致性和单调性。     

Labour Supply: Which Theory? A Critical Empirical Assessment

ABSTRACT The aim of this paper is to test econometrically a number of models of labour supply which fall within the neoclassical and Keynesian theories, in an attempt to obtain indications of validation of the theories themselves. The econometric assessment, carried out with a cohort approach to labour supply, shows that Italian female participation rates react well to the variables belonging to both the neoclassical versions of models — with the exception of the version regarding intertemporal choices — and the Keynesian ones. Both in terms of testing for the selection of alternative regression models, such as those for non-nested hypotheses and for selection of regressors, and of “internal” investigation within the estimated models, the results obtained are not without ambiguity. They therefore leave open the question as to which theory can explain labour supply in the most significant and appropriate way.     

Gray Markets,A Product of Demand Uncertainty and Excess Inventory

Diverting large quantities of goods from authorized distribution channels to unauthorized or “gray market” channels, albeit legal, significantly affects both firms and consumers due to effects on price, revenue, service and warranty availability, and product availability. In this paper we consider mechanisms by which the uncertainty surrounding inventory ordering decisions drives gray markets. We start with a minimal stochastic supply chain model composed of a producer and a retailer; then we restructure the model to add a distributor whereby the distributor and authorized retailer have the option of diverting inventory to a gray market. Our analysis sheds light on three issues: impacts of diversion on the various supply chain participants, strategies producers could use to combat or exploit gray markets, and important considerations for authorized retailers trying to set optimal order quantities in the presence of a gray market. Our analysis yields new insights into the behavior and impact of gray markets, which can inform management strategies and policies for confronting them.