推荐系统对消费者网购支出的影响研究

推荐系统能在电子商务中利用信息过滤技术为消费者推荐感兴趣的商品和服务。本文通过收集大量消费者网购调查问卷，问卷的信度和效度均符合数据分析的要求。首先分析了消费者的产品偏好、忠诚度等网购行为与其年龄、性别、地域等个人属性的相互关系，之后运用倾向得分匹配法（Propensity Score Matching，PSM）研究推荐系统对消费者网购支出的影响，同时使用工具变量法（（Instrumental Variable，IV）对PSM研究结果进行稳健性检验。结果显示使用推荐系统的消费者网购支出比未使用的消费者高出14.7%，网购支出与受教育程度和收入水平呈正相关、与年龄呈负相关，城市消费者和女性更愿意使用推荐系统；同时统计分析表明推荐效果受电子商务平台中社交关系、互补产品、店铺声誉等因素影响。研究结果对评估推荐系统的经济效益、增强消费者忠诚度和提高商家营销的精准性等方面起到了重要作用。     

Browse‐and‐Switch: Retail‐Online Competition under Value Uncertainty

Although online shopping is becoming popular, consumers who are unsure about whether to buy a product may find it advantageous to visit a brick‐and‐mortar retail store to first examine the product before purchasing it. But, after browsing at the store, consumers have the option of switching to an e‐tailer to purchase the item at a cheaper price rather than buying at the store. Recent business press refers to this browse‐and‐switch behavior as “showrooming,” and attributes to it the declining profits of brick‐and‐mortar retailers. To study the effect of the browse‐and‐switch option on retail and online pricing strategies and profits, we analyze a stylized economic model that incorporates uncertainty in consumers' valuation of the product, captures the heterogeneity among consumers in their inclination to purchase online, and permits product returns. We consider various equilibrium scenarios for different combinations of consumer shopping behaviors, characterize the parameter ranges for each scenario, and demonstrate that browse‐and‐switch behavior can indeed occur under equilibrium. Our analysis further shows that the option for consumers to browse‐and‐switch intensifies competition, reducing the profits for both firms.     

基于消费者搜寻成本的商圈形成机理研究

基于Nelson搜寻成本节约相关理论,通过引入购物成本、品味搜寻成本Ι、品味搜寻成本ΙΙ以及区位搜寻成本等概念,在深入阐释消费者搜寻与购物行为基础上,构建了消费者商圈搜寻期望经济学模型。研究结果表明:第一,商圈商品所能提供的满意度随消费者对商品要求提高或商圈内搜寻新店成本减小而增加;第二,孤立企业商品所能提供的满意度随消费者对商品要求提高、商圈内企业数量增加或商圈内搜寻新店成本减小而增加;第三,商品的区位搜寻成本,以及商圈到孤立企业间距离的影响则由商圈与孤立企业各自所能提供商品的满意度比较情况而决定。同时,结合徐家汇商圈形成案例的分析对以上结论进行了进一步探讨与分析。     

从体验管理的角度透视中国大型购物中心——以世纪金源为例

Mall是未来5~10年零售业发展的主要趋势,现在已经在中国呈现出迅猛发展势头,但也出现很多问题。以Mall的本质特征为基础,从体验管理的角度出发,在目标顾客、战略定位、交通、商店布局、商店定位、环境和服务等方面对中国Mall中存在的营销和管理问题进行了深入的探讨,并以世纪金源为案例加以分析。结果表明有:造成上述问题的根本原因在于Mall的设计和管理者对其本质内涵及定位没有深刻的理解和把握,没有充分考虑中国消费者的消费习惯而盲目照搬国外模式,以及缺乏科学的管理团队。最后,根据分析结果和经济现状提出中国大型购物中心未来营运管理的方向及建议。     

互联网的经济效果与对营销学的冲击

本文通过回顾新的信息基础即互联网的发展进程及其对电子商务的意义,从经济学方面探讨互联网的经济效果,包括代理成本、交易成本、网络外部性三部分的分析阐述了互联网对于市场、营销体制和营销实践的冲击.提出,电子商务仍是一种不确定的商务模式,需要着眼于消费者及营销体制,对市场变化的结果进行营销学领域的系统性研究.     

O2O模式下服务商的价格和时间决策

研究了拥有实体渠道的服务商是否应该开通O2O渠道和开通O2O渠道后服务商应该如何定价和确定服务水平的问题。首先,考虑实体渠道的等待时间对消费者效用的影响,构建了消费者渠道选择模型,得到了服务商具有定价权时服务商的渠道策略和定价策略,结果表明,消费者对实体店的等待时间的敏感度高于对价格的敏感度。其次,把价格作为常量,考虑等待时间对服务商成本的影响,研究了不具有定价权时服务商的渠道策略和服务水平策略,结果表明只有在O2O渠道价格较低和实体渠道的时间成本也较低时,服务商采用同时开通两个渠道的策略。     

感知价值和个人特质对用户移动购物采纳意图的影响研究

从消费者感知价值和自我效能感的角度,以基于价值的采纳模型和技术接受模型为理论基础,通过调研问卷方法研究影响消费者移动购物意图的若干关键因素.结果表明,用户对于移动购物的感知有用性和自我效能感影响了感知价值,并与感知价值一起影响采纳意图.所提出的移动购物采纳模型解释度较高,对用户采纳意图给出了技术特性视角和个人特质视角的比较全面的解释,并结合研究结果对移动购物的发展提出了具体的建议.     

拓展的NBD-Dirichlet模型及其在零售店选择研究中的应用

纯随机NBD-Dirichlet模型可以用来研究消费者的零售店选择行为(商店选择与购买频次),但是由于模型中没有协变量,所以无法对消费者的商店选择行为进行解释.本论文对纯随机模型进行了拓展,引入了解释变量,并应用拓展的模型对北京的消费者超市选择行为进行了实证研究.其中的主要发现为:(1)市场渗透率是超市经营的关键指标;(2)促销没有对消费者超市选择产生影响,但是它能够使顾客更多地惠顾超市;(3)家庭收入对消费者选择超市以及惠顾频次的多少均有显著的影响;(4)单次购买金额对消费者选择超市没有显著影响,但是它对消费者惠顾频次有负向的影响;(5)超市之间的价格差异较小,因此价格对消费者购物频次没有影响;(6)产品的齐全性对消费者超市选择有巨大的影响.     

A SIMULATION MODEL OF PATRONAGE BEHAVIOR WITHIN SHOPPING CENTERS

This paper presents a micro-analytic store choice model which eliminates the assumptions of homogeneity of stores and homogeneity of shoppers found in earlier models. The model simulates individual shopping trips within a shopping center and was successful in predicting the stores chosen by a sample of shopping center patrons. Two earlier models were also tested, but the proposed model performs better than either of the simpler models. Besides its predictive value, the model suggests a number of strategic implications for retailers and shopping center developers and provides a methodology that may be useful in other areas of behavioral research.     

消费者展厅行为和参考质量效应对O2O供应链动态运营策略的影响

本文研究消费者展厅行为和参考质量效应对O2O供应链动态运营策略的影响问题。分析了集中决策、分散决策和制造商分担实体店服务成本决策3种模式下的制造商产品质量策略、实体店和电商平台的服务竞争策略,以及品牌商誉变化和企业利润等问题。并进行了价格、实体店访问比例和展厅行为强度对企业绩效的影响。研究发现：展厅行为会挫伤实体店提供服务的积极性,降低品牌商誉,从而损害制造商和实体店的利润水平;而消费者的这种搭便车行为会提高电商平台利润,但由于参考质量效应的存在,其提升空间有限。综合而言,展厅行为对供应链总体绩效不利。应对展厅行为的长期战略有：1)加强上下游的纵向合作,制造商分担实体店服务成本契约,能实现供应链总体绩效的帕累托改进。2)从受展厅行为影响最大的实体店角度,保持线下产品高定价、高服务水平,提升消费者支付意愿,全面提升实体店的品牌溢价能力,获取长久生存之道。     

基于三方博弈模型的网络交易平台收费机制研究

网络交易平台因向消费者提供商品信息而发展壮大,但学界对其收费机制仍缺乏系统认识。本文通过建立三方博弈模型,分析了网络交易平台、厂商与消费者的市场作用与相互关系。结果表明,因为消费者处理信息的能力有限,所以由网络交易平台为其加工信息并获得盈利。其中,将优先展示席位拍卖给厂商是实现盈利的重要形式,因为展示席位的收费与消费者自行获得商品信息的成本有关,所以网购市场上服装类商品逐渐代替图书类商品。另外,随着消费者愿意网购更昂贵的商品,交易平台与厂商的合作趋于稳定,获得信息成本较高的商品被挤出市场,因此消费者网购中品牌商品逐渐代替个人出售的非品牌商品。     

消费者民族中心主义的中国本土化研究

消费者民族中心主义是国际营销与消费者行为学的重要研究构念,在欧美、日本、韩国等地区得到检验和推广,但缺少对中国市场的全面检验和本土化创新。本文在文献回顾的基础上,重点建构了消费者民族中心主义与国产产品消费行为间的内在关系,设计出理论模型和关系假设,并抽取京、沪、穗、渝四地消费者样本,运用可靠性分析、相关分析、回归分析等方法进行实证研究。研究证实,消费者民族中心主义及其量表CETSCALE在中国具有满意的信度和内在关系,测量CETSCALE值发现,与消费者民族中心主义相关的三个VALS因素、三个人口统计因素,界定三个调节消费者民族中心主义与国产产品消费行为关系的认知因素。本文还系统分析了上述研究发现在本土企业、跨国公司和政府部门中的战略内涵。     

拥有自有品牌零售商的平台开放策略研究

随着电子商务的快速发展，零售商之间竞争加剧，自有品牌战略成为零售商获取竞争优势的关键。研究拥有自有品牌零售商的平台开放策略，通过对比零售商不开放平台和开放平台下的均衡利润，给出零售商平台开放策略选择条件，并分析产品之间价格影响系数、固定成本和潜在需求差异系数对零售商平台开放策略选择的影响，最后结合数值分析和京东自有品牌的发展现状验证了本文的主要研究结论。研究发现：第一，随着固定成本的增加，佣金费率逐渐减少，随着潜在需求差异系数的增加，佣金费率逐渐增加；第二，当产品之间的价格影响系数较小（较大）时，平台开放（不开放）是零售商的最优选择；第三，当固定成本较小（较大）时，平台开放（不开放）是零售商的最优选择；第四，当潜在需求差异系数较小（较大）时，平台开放（不开放）是零售商的最优选择。     

The Retail Space‐Exchange Problem with Pricing and Space Allocation Decisions

We consider retail space‐exchange problems where two retailers exchange shelf space to increase accessibility to more of their consumers in more locations without opening new stores. Using the Hotelling model, we find two retailers’ optimal prices, given their host and guest space in two stores under the space‐exchange strategy. Next, using the optimal space‐dependent prices, we analyze a non‐cooperative game, where each retailer makes a space allocation decision for the retailer's own store. We show that the two retailers will implement such a strategy in the game, if and only if their stores are large enough to serve more than one‐half of their consumers. Nash equilibrium for the game exists, and its value depends on consumers’ utilities and trip costs as well as the total available space in each retailer's store. Moreover, as a result of the space‐exchange strategy, each retailer's prices in two stores are both higher than the retailer's price before the space exchange, but they may or may not be identical.     

The Dynamics of Pre‐ and Post‐purchase Service and Consumer Evaluation of Online Retailers: A Comparative Analysis of Dissonance and Disconfirmation Models*

This article explores the theoretical underpinnings of the dissonance framework in online consumer satisfaction formation process. Specifically, we suggest that any discrepancy between pre‐ and post‐purchase service performance would help determine consumers’ evaluations of online vendors. Drawing upon cognitive dissonance theory, a conceptual model is developed and tested in two different studies (preliminary and main studies). Using data from 191 college students collected longitudinally, the preliminary study demonstrates the validity and reliability of the measurements. Using a comparative analysis, the main study then tests our conceptual model as well as various competing models, including the expectation–confirmation model, with a sample of 292 online consumers. The results in both studies support our main prediction that the service encountered in different stages establishes dissonance. Specifically, we find that dissonance explains online consumers’ satisfaction process to a substantial extent, as compared with disconfirmation under the same conditions in online retailers. This study contributes to providing an alternative yet substantial approach for expectation–confirmation theory, reflecting the overarching nature of online shopping.     

网络商店与社区便利店的商品虚拟展示合作研究

基于消费者效用理论，考虑网络商店在社区便利店内虚拟展示商品，实施商品种类合作的策略，分析了虚拟展示合作对双方决策以及市场均衡和利润的影响。研究结果表明，虚拟展示增加了社区便利店的商品多样性，促进了零售价格的增长，但虚拟展示商品和社区便利店内实物商品的竞争导致社区便利店利润降低，使得社区便利店缺乏主动参与合作的动机。基于纳什讨价还价模型，构建了基于平均主义的利润分成协调机制，实现了社区便利店和网络商店的商品虚拟展示合作，改善了参与双方的利润。     

A free gift card alternative to price discounts in the newsvendor problem

In this paper, we develop a newsvendor model in which the retailer gives “free” gift cards to consumers who purchase a regularly priced product at the end of the selling season instead of discounting the product. The model is developed for a market with patient consumers. We derive the sufficient optimality condition for the retailer's stocking level in the first period and the optimal gift card value in the second period. We also investigate the conditions under which giving gift cards results in higher expected profits than discounting the product. We find that five factors determine the effectiveness of gift cards. The first three factors are consumers' valuation per $1 of gift card, gift card redemption rates, and the average gross margin of the retailer. The last two factors are the degree to which consumers use gift cards to pay for products which they would have purchased from the retailer in the future with cash, and the additional spending above the gift card value consumers make when they redeem the card. The last two factors have a strong interaction. We also find that gift cards can be profitable when patient consumers consistently value each $1 by their redemption probability, even with 100% redemption. Numerical analysis shows that in the presence of patient consumers, increases in the redemption rate may lead to an increase in the expected profit. Similar counter-intuitive behavior of the expected profit occurs with changes in other problem parameters. The analysis also shows that gift cards' profit advantage over discounting increases with the variability of demand. The analysis also indicates that gift cards are most effective for low to medium priced products sold by high margin retailers.     

Analyzing the dependences of multi-category purchases on interactions of marketing variables

We extend the usual specification of the multivariate probit model frequently used to analyze multi-category purchase incidence data by introducing interaction effects between marketing variables. Models are estimated by a Markov Chain Monte Carlo simulation method using 24,047 shopping visits made by a random sample of 1500 households in one specific grocery store over a one year period. Our data refer to a total of 25 food and non-food product categories and include socio-demographic household attributes in addition to purchases and marketing variables. Information criteria agree on the superiority of the extended specification. Estimation results demonstrate that many interaction effects are erroneously attributed to the main effects of marketing variables if one applies the usual specification instead. We derive managerial implications with respect to sales revenue by stochastic simulation. If managers base decisions on the usual specification in spite of its worse statistical performance, they run the risk to overestimate sales revenue increases due to sales promotion activities.     

The superstore format in Australia: Opportunities and limitations

This article outlines the development of both food superstores and non-food superstores (referred to as category killers) in Australia. Ten retail categories have been identified where there is a moderate to high rate of adoption of the superstore format (more than 20 outlets). These ten categories have been analyzed to identify the success factors in superstore development, which include accurate assessment of consumer one-stop shopping needs, sufficient finance, good store design skills and a balanced program of store expansion. The article explores the managerial implications for traditional retailers, for existing superstore retailers (especially the issue of optimal store size), for existing convenience store operators, department stores and for manufacturers and wholesalers. There are limitations of the superstore format in categories which are fashion orientated or where consumers require close distance convenience. These limitations actually provide opportunities to a myriad of retailers in fast food, dry-cleaning, banking, florists and the like, to reassess their locational and service delivery strategies. The superstore concept is clearly a revolution in itself, but its shock waves are provoking and stimulating second order mini-revolutions in traditional specialist stores, department stores, convenience stores, warehousing and manufacturing.     

Consumer's Attitude and Retailers' Images in Creating Store Choice. A Study of Two Different Sides of the Same Story

The determinants of store choice on the part of the consumer are complex. Our study indicates that consumers find the issues relevant to store choice as lacking in quality and certainly not congruent nor tangential to the retail marketing concept. As our model shows, perceptions are developed through stimuli that are created by the retail environment both internal and external. If these were the only issues retailers had to deal with, their challenge in understanding consumer store choice behavior would be formidable. Add to those dimensions the perceptions that are formed through the consumer's own psychological, physiological and behavioral attributes and the complexities of the challenge can seem to be insurmountable. The complexity of the situation increases exponentially when, as our research seems to indicate, the psychological and behavioral components can be compounded by such little understood dimensions as ambivalence and vicarious sociality. There is light at the end of the tunnel. Retailers need to benefit themselves by reaching out the broad resources of research to effectively develop the resource information necessary to successfully position themselves relative to their consumers expectations. This revised version was published online in July 2006 with corrections to the Cover Date.