China's population policy successful

Survey data collected in 1985 from birth histories of women in 2 provinces, Shaanxi and Hebei, and 1 city, Shanghai, show remarkable success for China's population policy. The total fertility rate fell from 1.9 to 1.1 in Shanghai, and from 5.0 and 4.6 to 2.5 and 2.2 in the provinces in the last 15 years. The infant mortality rate fell 73% in Shanghai and 50 and 59% in the provinces during the period. The proportion of babies delivered in hospitals or clinics rose; the proportion of those delivered by health professionals increased; the proportion of prenatal check-ups rose; and the immunization rate increased 49 to 96%. The mean birth weights of newborns was 3350, 3250 and 3150g in these provinces and in Shanghai. Length of lactation stood at 20.2 and 20.4 months in the provinces with no decline. Lactation lasted mean 12.4 months in Shanghai, a decline of 3 months in 10 years. Women interviewed expressed a desire for 2 or fewer children: proportionally more wanted only 1 child at younger ages. Most stated that their reasons were to curb population growth, although 10-20% believed that small families protect maternal and child health. These data show that broad masses of rural and urban residents support the government's population policy.     

Understanding the phenomenon of population flow in general. Selecting the way to deal with it carefully. A survey of population flow in Beijing]

The rapid increase in transient population has become a common phenomenon in China's major cities in recent years, and has presented new problems for city planning, construction and management. The Beijing city government conducted a large scale survey on this problem in April, 1985. According to an earlier, incomplete survey, in 1983 the daily average transient population reached approximately 500,000-600,000. The April, 1985 survey showed the number of temporary residents in the city to be 870,000. The concentration of the flow is no longer limited to before and after the Chinese new year, or during summer months; it is now a year round event. The railroad is the chief means of transportation for this influx. The flow can be divided into 3 categories: 18% to visit friends and relatives; 45.1% to study, attend conferences, conduct business, or tour the city. Other temporary visitors include people seeking employment and sellers at farm markets. By the end of this survey a new kind of flow had emerged: Beijing's textile, rubber, and leather industries had begun to attract workers from the villages, who commute daily. Many are concerned about how this uncontrolled flow could unfavorably influence Beijing's natural growth. The survey proposed taking appropriate measures to utilize this population flow and ease the conflicts it causes. To accomplish this, the city government must determine the mechanics of the flow as well as improve city management in order to respond to the challenge. The city government's responsibility should not be limited to making policies and regulations; it should delegate management and settlement of the transient population to the appropriate departments. Emphasis should be placed on providing information through the media about room and board and transportation, improving the transportation system, incorporating the farm markets into city planning, and strengthening security and supervision.     

Temporary Migrants in Shanghai Households, 1984

In China, temporary migration is defined as a change in place of residence without a concomitant change in household registration; such mobility therefore encompasses a more heterogeneous set of movements than is usually subsumed under this heading in other nations. Because of China's strict control of permanent migration to large cities, temporary migration has become an important strategy for adjusting to economic changes and to effecting family reunification. The Shanghai Temporary Migration Survey of 1984 focused on one segment of temporary migrants, the 58% living in the households of permanent residents. Multinomial logistic regression suggests the heightened probability that close relatives of the household heads come to Shanghai to visit or to live, and nonrelatives to work. Regression on current and expected duration shows that many intended to stay for a year or more, some for up to 20 years. Their presence in the city places added strains on infrastructure and raises questions about the continued efficacy of China's migration policies.     

浅析上海市近年来对外来流动人口的政策变迁

本文主要是对上海市近年来对外来流动人口政策变迁的综述和浅析。根据文化程度的高低 ,一般将流动人口分为两个不同的层次 ,也相应出台了不同的政策 ,从针对层次较高的所谓“引进人才”的蓝印户口、工作证制度、以及居住证到针对层次较低的外来普通务工人员的就业证制度和综合保险政策。最后得出的结论是 :根据上海经济、社会发展变化的相应需求 ,“筑高门槛 ,开大城门” ,成为上海市对外来流动人口管理政策的基本趋势 ,外地人进入上海的难度在增加。     

A statistical analysis of the life expectancy of the residents of our country, 1973-75]

Statistical analysis of life expectancy is important in assessing population health and its characteristics and in studying human diseases and natural population changes. Life tables are constructed and statistical analysis is performed retrospectively on data accumulated over a 3-year (1973-1975) period. The data were supplied by the Office of Cancer Prevention and Treatment of the Ministry of Health, which originated from 24 provinces, representing an accumulated population of 2.04 billion, with a total mortality of 15.29 million. Results show that life expectancy in China has greatly improved since Liberation. Thus, in 1935, the average life expectancy for Nanjing residents was under 35 years. In 1951, the average life expectancy for male and female residents of Shanghai were 42.74 and 46.76 years respectively. But for the 1973-1975 period, the average Chinese life expectancy was 63.62 years for males and 66.31 years for females, with higher life expectancy for coastal provinces than for inland provinces. Cardiovascular diseases (excluding arteriosclerotic heart diseases), malignant tumors, and cerebrovascular diseases were the major causes of death in regions with higher life expectancy, while respiratory diseases, infectious diseases, and diseases of the newborn were the major causes of death in regions with lower life expectancy.     

上海养老保险制度面临的挑战及对策初探

进入21世纪,上海面临人口老龄化的挑战,迫切需要建立一个从实际出发的、较为完善的社会养老保险体系。但纵观其现行养老保险基金的运行状况,仍存在着较大的收支缺口。文章试图通过介绍上海养老保险制度的现状及其面临的问题和困难,并借鉴国外发达国家养老金的运筹情况,为上海养老保险制度的改革和完善提出一些对策和建议。     

A general review of the discussion at the Beijing International Symposium on Population and Development]

A general review of papers and discussions at the Beijing International Symposium on Population and Development held December 10-14, 1984 is presented. Discussions on population and development included China's population change 1949-1982, impacts of economic change on Tianjin's population, the population factor in economic development policy-making, Japanese population and development, recent population development in Hungary, population and economy, comprehensive long-term population development in Russia, fertility rate change factors in China, Shanghai's population change, and population and economic development in Mian County, Shaanxi Province. Fertility rate changes were discussed, including multinational borderline value assumptions, recent trends in life span fertility rate in China, fertility rate in Jiangsu Province, fertility rate change in Zhejiang Province, and sterilization in Yangjiaping, Thailand. Population and employment discussions included the economic impact of world population change, the 1984 International Population Conference, changes in economically productive population and employment strategy, employed/unemployed populations in Guangdong Province, and the economic composition of China's population. Urbanization discussions covered population and development methodological problems, population growth and economic development in the Pacific region, surplus rural population transfer and economic development in China, urbanization analysis, trends and urban population distribution problems, and Laioning Province population development. Issues in migration, population distribution, and regional population included migration and development of the Great Northwest, internal migration to Beijing, Chinese population growth and economic development by major region, and current population changes of Chinese Tibetans. Under social problems of population, discussions included women's status, development and population change, Shanghai's aging trend, analysis of the aged population, analysis of educational quality in Anhui Province, and the retirement system in Chinese villages.     

Brief

This brief article discusses population dynamics, contraception, and abortion in Shanghai, China. China's policy of rapidly developing medium and small cities and towns is coming to fruition. China now has 666 cities, of which 75 are megacities, 192 are medium-sized cities, and 399 are small cities. It is expected that there will be about 800 cities by the year 2000. Population movement of the floating population has increased. During 1990-95 the domestic migrant population was 3.02% of total population. 24.44 million (67.1%) were floating population who moved within provinces, and 11.98 million floated between provinces. Population is affected by declines in the supply of water. The Yellow River spans 5400 km and passes through nine provinces, including the two most populous provinces of Henan and Shandong. The Yellow River empties into the Yellow Sea, when the river is flowing. Since 1972, stretches of the Yellow River have run dry for as many as 683 km. The driest stretch of the river tends to be from Kaifeng City in Henan Province to its mouth at the Yellow Sea. The river bed has been dry for as many as 136 days. The lack of water from the Yellow River impacts on the millions who live along its banks near the Yellow Sea. The Shanghai Population Information Center reports that married women's abortion rate has declined and unmarried women's abortion rate has increased. An information program on contraception and contraceptive services for unmarried women is planned for completion by Spring 1998. It is hoped that the family planning program will be as successful in decreasing abortion rates among the unmarried as among the married. In the community of Pengpu New Village, Zabei District, a new family planning program was established which promotes the concept of family planning among nongovernmental organizations, the unemployed, and the floating population.     

The trends of contraceptives of people in Shanghai since early 1980s

Shanghai has had the lowest fertility rate in China for many years. Shanghai had a negative rate of natural growth during 1990-95. During 1980-93, fertility dropped continuously. In 1982, contraceptive use among married women included 29.47% using IUDs, 29.33% using oral pills, 23.44% using female sterilization, and 10.48% using condoms. Contraceptive prevalence declined slightly from 98.6% in 1982 to 92.29% in 1993. By 1993, method use changed. Oral pill and female sterilization use declined to 8.04% and 7.22%, respectively, among married women of reproductive age. IUD use increased dramatically to 72.2% in 1993. Condom use declined to 8.83% of total users. Despite reduced contraceptive prevalence, the birth rate declined from 18.51/1000 population in 1982 to 6.50/1000 population in 1993. The proportion of women accepting the one-child certificate increased from 53.32% of all married women of reproductive age in 1984 to 70.13% in 1993. The shift use of contraceptive methods means reliance on long-term reversible methods.     

Incidence of AIDS and STD increasing in Shanghai

According to public health department statistics, 82 people in Shanghai had tested positive for HIV by October 1995. In the first 10 months of 1995, over 10,000 Shanghai residents were diagnosed with a sexually transmitted disease (STD)--a 31.5% increase from the previous year. The largest increase was recorded for syphilis. Moreover, the ratio of male:female STD cases changed from 2:1 in 1994 to 1.5:1 in 1995. A significant share of STD cases involve purchasing agents, long-distance truck drivers, sailors, and the self-employed. Of the 82 HIV cases to date, 43 were diagnosed in 1994 and 24 involved Shanghai citizens. Sexual transmission was present in 95% of cases.     

区域人口承载能力的多因素分析——以上海为例

上海人口增长的规划控制目标,从根本上取决于其人口承载量的拓展潜力.区域人口承载能力研究,所面对的是由人口、资源、环境、经济和社会构成的复杂巨系统,必须充分重视研究对象的系统属性.本文在构建区域人口承载能力系统框架的基础上,利用主成分分析法建立综合评价模型,并对上海在不同发展阶段,与不同标准相对应的各项资源经济要素所能提供的人口承载能力进行了测算分析.     

基于ESDA的上海少数民族常住人口空间分析

利用2012年上海少数民族常住人口分布数据,采用数理统计和ESDA技术对上海少数民族常住人口数量、分布状况进行研究.研究表明：上海少数民族常住人口数量不断增加且集中分布于中心城边缘区和近郊区;少数民族常住人口在空间格局上存在显著的“同质集聚、异质隔离”;显著的“冷点”区域主要集中在崇明县、金山区等远郊区,显著的“热点”区域主要集中在五角场区域和九亭镇,较为热点的区域主要集中于花木镇、七宝街道、江川路街道、车墩镇和新桥镇等区域,而青浦区、浦东新区大部分区域则是较为冷点区域,中心城区大部分区域形成了随机分布的区域;不同族别的少数民族分布状况有着较大差异,亲缘、地缘和族缘为纽带的乡土观念仍然是少数民族常住人口集聚的重要因素.     

The population on the mainland of China totals 1.07233 billion

China's 1987 1% population sample survey suggested a population of 1.07233 billion in the mainland's provinces, autonomous regions, and municipalities. The population growth rate has averaged 1.24%/year in the past 5 years. The survey statistics for 1987 also indicate a birth rate of 21.2/1000, a death rate of 6.4/1000, and a natural increase rate of 14.8/1000. The sex ratio is 104.5, with males comprising 51.1% of the population. In the 1982-87 period, the proportion of children and adolescents in the population decreased from 33.5% of the total population to 28.7%, while the proportion of elderly (over 64 years) increased from 4.9% to 6.5%. The median age has increased from 22.9 years in 1982 to 24.2 years in 1987. Although educational attainment has increased at every level of schooling, the most rapid gains have been recorded for university graduates--an annual increase of 7.5%. In addition, the proportion of illiterates or semi-literates decreased from 23.6% of China's population in 1982 to 20.6% in 1987. In terms of the proportion of China's population comprised of national minorities, there has been an increase from 6.7% to 8.0% in the past 5 years. On the average, household size in China is 4.2 persons. Finally, the 1987 survey data indicate that the proportion of the country's population that is urban has increased from 20.6% to 37.1% in the past 5 years.     

The data of 1995 1 percent sample population survey in Shanghai

A 1% sample survey was conducted in Shanghai during October 1995. Findings indicate that de jure population was 14.135 million people vs. 13.34 million people in 1990 (an increase of 0.795 million). Part of the increase in population (0.455 million people) during 1990-95 is due to changes in definition of the de jure population. In 1995, de jure means residents of the city for 6 months or more compared with the 1990 requirement of at least 12 months' residency. Natural population growth and net migrants accounted for 0.34 million of the increase in population during 1990-95. The birth rate was 5.75/1000 population in 1995 in Shanghai, or 81,200 births. The death rate was 7.05/1000 population, or 99,600 deaths. The natural rate of growth was a negative 0.13% or a decline of 18,400 population. Households numbered 4.394 million. Average household size was 3.13 members. 12.454 million people out of the total of 14.135 million people held household registration in Shanghai. Han ethnic groups comprised 99.48% of Shanghai's population, or 14.061 million people. The Han population declined by 0.06% during 1990-95. Other minority populations comprised 74,000 people. 11.838 million were township population. The proportion of township population increased from 66.73% in 1990 to 83.75% in 1995. The number of people who received a higher education reached 9045 people, which was an increase of 1508 people during 1990-95. Population with at least 12 years of education numbered 21,007 people, an increase of 1489 people during 1990-95. 34,395 had 9 years of education, and 21,905 had 6 years of education. The illiterate or semiliterate population over 15 years of age numbered 989,000 people, which was 7.0% of the total city population or a decline of 4 percentage points during 1990-95.     

基于比较研究的上海人口规模再思考

近十几年来,我国城市化进程加速,大城市规模表现出明显的扩张,根据我国人口与经济发展形势,学者们对特大城市上海未来的人口规模问题展开了激烈的争论,从不同视角提出了自己的看法。在其他学者研究成果的基础上,拟采用比较研究的新视角,参照国际经验,以完全开放的系统观,分成几条线分别对上海的人口规模等进行研讨,然后再适当考虑约束条件,把这几条线加以整合,得出未来上海最大人口规模为2600万人的结论。     

中国人口迁移流动的人力资本替代效应及影响分析

人口迁移流动是改变人口数量和人力资本空间分布格局的重要因素,人口迁移流动造成的人口数量和人力资本空间分布变化是否一致及其对区域经济社会发展的影响是一个需要更加深入研究的问题。本文针对我国人口流动过程中形成的人口素质结构转变进行理论思考和实证研究,探讨其形成的经济原因和造成的经济影响。相关数据显示我国高等教育群体和中等教育及以下群体长期以来一直处于净流向相同的状态,而2013-2015年以来各省陆续出现净流向相反的现象,形成了人口数量和人口素质的替代效应。高等教育人才的净流入地区是经济发达省份、地理条件优越省份以及少数民族自治区,北京、天津、上海、浙江、江苏以及广东省等三大都市圈内的六个省市的高等教育净流入人才占跨省高等教育净流入总人口的绝大多数。人口替代对当地的经济影响表现为三点:第一,改变当地劳动力资源禀赋结构,使高等教育群体及中等教育群体人数的比较优势发生变化;第二,改变地区平均受教育年限,影响地区科技创新能力;第三,拉大地区劳动力收入差距。据此提出两点政策建议:首先,地方省市可以通过市场化的产业结构调整手段控制相应的流动人口群体规模,而不必依靠限制人口流动的政策以及硬性提出人口调控目标来管理流动人口规模。其次,地方政府要做好地区经济规划以及定位,充分认识现在的人口替代对于未来地区创新能力以及劳动力收入差距的影响。     

The gap of economic development expanding between eastern China and middle,western China

Jiang Zemin announced at China's 5th Plenary Session of the 14th Central Committee that there was a serious problem of differences in economic development between Eastern China and Middle and Western China. There are many economic development differences between provinces. The coastal eastern zone is comprised of 12 provinces and municipalities: Beijing, Tianjin, Hebei, Liaoning, Shanghai, Jiangsu, Zhejiang, Fujian, Shandong, Guangdong, Guangxi, and Hainan. The middle zone is comprised of 9 provinces and regions including Shanxi, Inner Mongolia, Jilin, Heilongjiang, Anhui, Jiangxi, Henan, Hubei, and Hunan. The third development zone in Western China includes the 9 provinces of Sichuan, Guizhou, Yunnan, Tibet, Shaanxi, Gansu, Qinghai, Ningxia, and Xinjiang. The most developed region is the eastern coastal zone. About 41% of the total population live in the eastern coastal zone, about 36% live in the middle zone, and about 23% live in the western zone. The proportion of gross domestic product (GDP) in the eastern, middle, and western zones shifted from 52.5%, 31.0%, and 16.5%, respectively, in 1973 to 58.5%, 27.4%, and 14.1%, respectively. in 1994. GDP per capita increased by 10.5 times in the eastern zone, by 8.2 times in the middle zone, and by 8.0 times in the western zone to 5352 yuan, 2878 yuan, and 2320 yuan, respectively, in 1994. Nationally, per capita income among urban households was 3179 yuan in 1994. In the eastern coastal zone only two provinces were below the national average: Liaoning with 2750.73 yuan/capita and Hebei with 2906.42 yuan/capita. Only 2 of 18 provinces in the middle and western zones had per capita urban income above the national average: Hunan with 3365.47 yuan/capita and Tibet with 3595.42/capita. Nationally, the annual net rural income was 1220.98/capita. Rural income below the national average occurred in Hebei and Guangsi in the eastern coastal zone and all provinces in the middle and western zones. The highest rural income in the middle and western zones was in Tibet with 975.95 yuan/capita.     

Farm Dependence and Population Change in China

The existing literature has documented a negative association between farm dependence and population change in Western countries. Theories have also been proposed to explain such a negative association. Whether prior findings based on the western social context can be generalized to less developed countries, such as China, has largely eluded researchers. Using five waves of Chinese Census data and data from China’s Statistical Yearbooks, I investigate the dynamics between farm dependence and population change, particularly, in counties of Chinese provinces that are highly dependent on farms. I find that after controlling for mechanization, nonfarm industries and the human ecological factors that are rooted in the theoretical explanations of rural population change, high farm dependence does not necessarily lead to a lower population growth. The results imply that the existing theories on farm dependence and population change may need to be modified when being applied to less developed regions. The regional variation approach is proposed to understand population change in high-farm-dependent areas of China.     

Use of contraceptives by Chinese women

In April 1985 the State Statistical Bureau of China conducted a fertility sampling survey in the provinces of Hebei and Shaanxi, and Shanghai municipality covering a population of 93,000,000. The target group was married women under 50 whose knowledge and use of contraceptives are the main content of this survey. The IUD has been used by 62% in Hebei, 61% in Shaanxi, and 55% in Shanghai, and is most popular with women over 30 who have had at least 1 child. Married women who have used the pill make up 33% in Shanghai, 14% in Hebei, and 7% in Shaanxi. Female and male sterilization are used by women who have had more than 2 children (15.7% in Shanghai, 40% in Hebei, and 28% in Shannxi). 70-80% have used contraception of some type, reflecting the success of the family planning program.     

An analysis of the 1987 population situation in China]

Presented here is an analysis of some of the manually collected data from a 1% random sample of China's population taken on 7/1/87. 1)Population growth: The population grew 6.36% from 1982-87 to give a total population of 1,072,330,000. Even though the average annual growth rate of 1.24% during these years is slower than the growth rate of the 1950s and 1960s, this does not mean that China can be complacent about it. Due to China's large population base, every year its population increases by about 13,000,000, with serious implications for consumerism, education and labor. The natural rate of growth dropped during 1982-84, but by 1987, it had increased again to 1981 levels. If China is to limit its population to 1.25 billion by 2000, the average annual growth rate must remain below 1.23%, which is lower than the figures of recent years. 2) Sex differences: the population was 51.1% male and 48.9% female. 3) Age structure: 28.68% of the population were 14 years and younger; 65.86% were between 15-64 years; 5.46% were 65 years and older. The median age was 24.2 years. The percentage of the 0-14 year bracket dropped about 7.6% from 1953-87, while the 15-64 year olds increased 6.6% and the 65 years and older group increased 1%. On the surface, a 1% increase of the aged would not present a problem to China taken as a whole. However, when densely populated areas such as Shanghai are looked at, the situation demands immediate attention. 4) Ethnic groups: 92% of the population were Han. Minorities increased 5% annually between 1982-87 to comprise 8% of the population. This rapid growth among minorities is due in part to official permission for families to bear more than one child, and to better sanitary and medical attention. 6) Population distribution: 37.1% of the population lived in urban areas, as compared with 10% in 1949. By 1990 the urban population could reach 40%, creating serious social, economic and political pressure on cities.