漫话调查及抽样调查

“文革”初期，听大人们窃窃地说，街上邻居，蹬三轮车的王老头，平时老实巴交的，被街上红卫兵组织调查了。跑到他原籍，查得真相，原来全国解放以前，王老头在乡下老家担任过伪村长，于是，调查他的人一返回，他当天就被揪出来，成为历史反革命分子，挂上牌子戴高帽子游街，那是最初领略“调查”的意思。那时候坐火车来去匆匆的乘客，很多是担负外调任务的，去外地调查某人的历史。一个时期的特征从乘车人的去向目的就可以看得很清楚，八十年代，乘客中做生意的多起来，改革开放了；现在，出外旅游的多了，生活水平提高了，当然，农民兄弟…     

谈强化统计监督

统计工作具有监督职能,原则上早已得到各方确认,并已在实践中。建国40年来,统计 监督尽管时起时落,但在不同领域、不同地区、不同程度上,这种职能总还是自觉或不自觉 地执行着。尽管理论界对统计监督的内涵,统计服务与统计监督的关系等问题,在认识上有 不少分歧,但以社会经济发展的客观需要,以社会主义统计的客观发展规律来看,对统计应 该具有监督职能是没有异议的。 就目前的情况来看,不是强调统计监督过份,而是强调不足;更不是统计监督搞得过 份,而是由于实际困难,想监督而不敢监督。 历史的实践告诉我们,统计部门实行统计监督一直处于这样的一种困境:一方面,统计工     

What We Talk About When We Talk About Journal Club: Scholarly Communication Advocacy and Public Access to Federally Funded Research

The past decade has seen attempts by librarians and their allies to respond to inefficiencies in the market for scholarly journals and introduce infrastructure to support open solutions. Recently these efforts have contributed to success at the national level, first with the White House Office of Science and Technology Policy's 2013 policy memorandum on Expanding Public Access to the Results of Federally Funded Research and in 2014 with the Consolidated Appropriations Act, which incorporates the substance of the memorandum into law. This column provides a review of efforts by librarians to advocate for open scholarship, describes the federal actions that will expand public access to research, and concludes with a discussion of next steps in this evolving effort.     

Road trafficking description and short term travel time forecasting,with a classification method

The purpose of this work is, on the one hand, to study how to forecast road trafficking on highway networks and, on the other hand, to describe future traffic events. Here, road trafficking is measured by vehicle velocities. The authors propose two methodologies. The first is based on an empirical classification method, and the second on a probability mixture model. They use an SAEM‐type algorithm (a stochastic approximation of the EM algorithm) to select the densities of the mixture model. Then, they test the validity of their methodologies by forecasting short term travel times.     

0.618的统计漫话

本人对“0.618”感兴趣,在报刊杂 志上见到“0.618”的趣事都把它剪报下来。下面几乎是原原本本的辑录:黄金分割亦称“黄金律”、“中外比”。把长为L的直线段分成两部分,使其中一部分对于全部的比等于其余一部分对于这部分的比,即X:L=(1-X):X,这样的分割称为“黄金分割”,X:L是 。从古希腊直到十九世纪都认为这种比例在造型艺术中有美学价值,故称“黄金分割”。在实际运用中,最简单方法是按照数列1,2,3,5,8,13,21得出2/3; 3/5; 5/8; 8/13等比值作为近似值,这种分割方法亦用于优选法。如工艺美术或日用品的长…     

企业市场统计预测点滴谈

企业市场统计预测作为了解宏观和微观市场信息的重要手段，能及时地为企业提供市场需求和市场变化趋势的重要信息，便于企业及时调整新产品开发战略和生产经营策略，以适应市场需求的变化，从而使企业能占领市场制高点，赢得市场竞争的胜利。认识企业市场统计预测 企业市场统计预测可分为宏观市场统计预测和微观市场统计预测。前者是广义的市场预测，是总体预测，是对宏观即国民经济发展情况进行预测。后者是企业对本单位所发生的某一种或某一类产品在国内外市场上总需求量及其变化的预测，主要是对变化趋势的分析研究。本文主要谈微观市…     

平均数的背后

平均数谁都不陌生，不用说学过统计学的饱学之士，就是上过中学的也知道。当然，这里所说的只是算术平均数，不包括几何平均数、调和平均数等常人少见的学问。平均数的使用是很广泛的，它既可以用来比较两个总体水平的高低，也可以用来判断一个总体单位的地位。比如，两个班的物理平均分数分别是79分和80分，我们可以据此认为后者的物理成绩优于前者；同样，一个学生的考试成绩如果高于全班平均分数的话，我们也可以认为这个学生不错。喜欢比较，也许是我们的爱好，也许是市场竞争使然。平均数，特别是人们熟悉的算术平均数，更是我们用来进…     

Bayesian analysis of mark‐recapture data with travel time‐dependent survival probabilities

The authors extend the classical Cormack‐Jolly‐Seber mark‐recapture model to account for both temporal and spatial movement through a series of markers (e.g., dams). Survival rates are modeled as a function of (possibly) unobserved travel times. Because of the complex nature of the likelihood, they use a Bayesian approach based on the complete data likelihood, and integrate the posterior through Markov chain Monte Carlo methods. They test the model through simulations and apply it also to actual salmon data arising from the Columbia river system. The methodology was developed for use by the Pacific Ocean Shelf Tracking (POST) project.     

Modelling the travel time of transit vehicles in real‐time through a GTFS‐based road network using GPS vehicle locations

Predicting the arrival time of a transit vehicle involves not only knowledge of its current position and schedule adherence, but also traffic conditions along the remainder of the route. Road networks are dynamic and can quickly change from free‐flowing to highly congested, which impacts the arrival time of transit vehicles, particularly buses which often share the road with other vehicles, so reliable predictions need to account for real‐time and future traffic conditions. The first step in this process is to construct a framework with which road state (traffic conditions) can be estimated using real‐time transit vehicle position data. Our proposed framework implements a vehicle model using a particle filter to estimate road travel times, which are used in a second model to estimate real‐time traffic conditions. Although development and testing took place in Auckland, New Zealand, we generalised each component to make the framework compatible with other public transport systems around the world. We demonstrate the real‐time feasibility and performance of our approach in real‐time, where a combination of R and C++ was used to obtain the necessary performance results. Future work will use these estimated traffic conditions in combination with historical data to obtain reliable arrival time predictions of transit vehicles.     

Trimmed and Outer Means and Their Variances

Some properties of trimmed and outer means for the normal situation are considered; in particular, the mean of the outer half of the sample has the same variance as the mean of the inner half. An inequality involving variances of unbiased estimators of location and their complements is derived and some of its consequences are examined.     

Neural networks and flexible regression and discrimination

Feed-forward neural networks—also known as multi-layer perceptrons—are now widely used for regression and classification. In parallel but slightly earlier, a family of methods for flexible regression and discrimination were developed in multivariate statistics, and tree-induction methods have been developed in both machine learning and statistics. We expound and compare these approaches in the context of a number of examples.     

社会经济不平等及其测度

对社会中普遍存在的不平等现象 ,人们很早就给予了关注和研究 ,并提出了可行的测度不平等程度的方法和指标。然而我们注意到 ,这些传统的研究成果所体现的不平等 ,主要集中在社会的“收入不平等”上 ,实质上也就是经济不平等的即时反映。但生活毕竟不只是生存问题 ,社会中的不平等远不仅是人们收入多少的差异 ,还有很多无法用货币或数值来表现的不平等 ,而这些往往是人们生活质量更深层次、更真实的反映。“社会经济不平等”概念的提出 ,跳出了“收入不平等”这个狭隘的思维体系 ,也为全面研究社会中诸多不平等现象奠定了新的基石。虽然这一…     

Neural networks and flexible regression and discrimination

Feed-forward neural networks—also known as multi-layer perceptrons—are now widely used for regression and classification. In parallel but slightly earlier, a family of methods for flexible regression and discrimination were developed in multivariate statistics, and tree-induction methods have been developed in both machine learning and statistics. We expound and compare these approaches in the context of a number of examples.     

世贸组织及其宗旨、目标和职能

世界贸易组织（Ｗｏｒｌｄ Ｔｒａｄｅ Ｏｒｇａｎｉｚａｔｉｏｎｏ．缩写ＷＴＯ,简称“世贸组织”）成立了１９９５年１月１日,是独立于联合国的永久性国际组织,其前身是成立于１９４８年的关税和贸易总协定,根据《建立世界贸易组织协定》的规定, １９９５年１月１日世贸组织正式成立,１９９５年与关贸总协定共存一年后,担当起全球经济贸易组织的角色,发挥其积极作用。 世贸组织 日前拥有 １３５个成员,与国际货币基金组织、世界银行并称为世界经济的“三大支柱”。世贸组织涵盖货物贸易、服务贸易以及知识产权贸易。其基本原则和…