Post-disaster fertility: Hurricane Katrina and the changing racial composition of New Orleans

Large-scale climate events can have enduring effects on population size and composition. Natural disasters affect population fertility through multiple mechanisms, including displacement, demand for children, and reproductive care access. Fertility effects, in turn, influence the size and composition of new birth cohorts, extending the reach of climate events across generations. We study these processes in New Orleans during the decade spanning Hurricane Katrina. We combine census data, ACS data, and vital statistics data to describe fertility in New Orleans and seven comparison cities. Following Katrina, displacement contributed to a 30% decline in birth cohort size. Black fertility fell, and remained 4% below expected values through 2010. By contrast, white fertility increased by 5%. The largest share of births now occurs to white women. These fertility differences—beyond migration-driven population change—generate additional pressure on the renewal of New Orleans as a city in which the black population is substantially smaller in the disaster’s wake.     

Disaster disparities and differential recovery in New Orleans

The historical disparities in the socio-demographic structure of New Orleans shaped the social vulnerability of local residents and their responses to Hurricane Katrina and its aftermath. These disparities, derived from race, class, gender, and age differences, have resulted in the uneven impact of the catastrophe on various communities in New Orleans, and importantly, their ability to recover. This article examines how the pre-existing social vulnerabilities within New Orleans interacted with the level of flood exposure to produce inequities in the socio-spatial patterns of recovery. Utilizing a combination of statistical and spatial approaches, we found a distinct geographic pattern to the recovery suggesting that the social burdens and impacts from Hurricane Katrina are uneven—the less flooded and less vulnerable areas are recovering faster than tracts with more vulnerable populations and higher levels of flooding. However, there is a more nuanced story, which suggests that it is neighborhoods in the mid-range of social vulnerability where recovery is lagging. While private resources and government programs help groups in the high and low categories of social vulnerability, the middle group shows the slowest rates of recovery. Further, it appears that the congressionally funded State of Louisiana Road Home Program (designed to provide compensation to Louisiana’s homeowners who suffered impacts by Hurricanes Katrina and Rita for the damage to their home) is not having a significant effect in stimulating recovery within the city.     

New survey finds fertility decline in India

A brief indication was provided of demography, fertility, and contraceptive usage and knowledge based on the recent 1992/93 Indian National Family Health Survey. The sample included 88,562 households and 89,777 ever married women aged 13-49 years in 24 states and the National Capital Territory of Delhi. About 38% of household members were aged under 15 years. The sex ratio was 944 females to 100 males. 54% aged over 5 years were currently married; 10% were widowed, divorced, or separated. 43% were literate and 9% had secondary or higher education: 67% for females in cities and 34% in rural areas. Female literacy was 82% in Kerala but under 30% in Rajasthan, Bihar, Uttar Pradesh, and Madhya Pradesh. During 1990-92, the crude birth rate was 28.9 per 1000 population. Total fertility was 3.4 for women aged 15-49 years: 3.7 in rural and 2.7 in urban areas. 31% of parents had been sterilized. 26% desired no more children. Only 6% of women with four or more children desired another child. 99% of urban and 95% of rural respondents had knowledge of at least one modern or traditional method. Female and male sterilization were the most well-known modern methods. 47% of women had ever used contraception: 42% with a modern method and 12% with a traditional method. 41% were current users of family planning: 36% with a modern and 4% with a traditional method (45% in urban and 33% in rural areas with a modern method). The highest contraceptive use was in Kerala, Himachal Pradesh, Maharashtra, and Punjab states and Delhi (over 50%). The two most populous states, Uttar Pradesh and Bihar, had the lowest rates, which were under 25%; other low usage was in Assam and several small northeastern states. 75% of all female modern contraceptive use was female sterilization. 12% in urban and 3% in rural areas used a modern spacing method. Use increased with increased educational level. Rural sources of supply emphasized public facilities: sterilization and IUDs.     

Seasonality of fertility: New evidence

This paper presents evidence that the seasonal pattern of American fertility applies to nonwhites as well as whites. The patterns are also changing in the same way over time: the summer trough in births is shrinking in magnitude, and the spread of airconditioning, reducing the heat of summer, can explain this shrinkage. The summer hypothesis is further buttressed by evidence, for the total population, that summer temperature extremes can explain a significant portion of the variation around the seasonal trend, in both the North and South. These temperature-induced variations appear to be offset within seven months of their occurrence.This research was supported in part by a grant from the National Institute of Child Health and Human Development. Dennis Sullivan made a number of valuable critical comments on an earlier draft of this paper. Valuable research assistance was provided by Amy Powell and Robert Schoeni.     

The Location of Displaced New Orleans Residents in the Year After Hurricane Katrina

Using individual data from the restricted version of the American Community Survey, we examined the displacement locations of pre–Hurricane Katrina adult residents of New Orleans in the year after the hurricane. More than one-half (53 %) of adults had returned to—or remained in—the New Orleans metropolitan area, with just under one-third of the total returning to the dwelling in which they resided prior to Hurricane Katrina. Among the remainder, Texas was the leading location of displaced residents, with almost 40 % of those living away from the metropolitan area (18 % of the total), followed by other locations in Louisiana (12 %), the South region of the United States other than Louisiana and Texas (12 %), and elsewhere in the United States (5 %). Black adults were considerably more likely than nonblack adults to be living elsewhere in Louisiana, in Texas, and elsewhere in the South. The observed race disparity was not accounted for by any of the demographic or socioeconomic covariates in the multinomial logistic regression models. Consistent with hypothesized effects, we found that following Hurricane Katrina, young adults (aged 25–39) were more likely to move further away from New Orleans and that adults born outside Louisiana were substantially more likely to have relocated away from the state.     

Religion and fertility in the United States: New patterns

In the United States, the baby boom-era pattern of high Catholic and low Protestant fertility has ended. Among non-Hispanic whites in the 1980s, Catholic total fertility rates (TFRs) were about one-quarter of a child lower than Protestant rates (1.64 vs. 1.91). Most of the Protestant-Catholic difference is related to later and less frequent marriage among Catholics. Future research on the demography of religious groups should focus on explaining the delayed marriage pattern of Catholics, the high fertility of Mormons and frequently attending Protestants, and the very low fertility of those with no religious affiliation.     

A fertility analysis of New Zealand marriage cohorts

New Zealand annual returns of non-Maori live legitimate births 1913 to 1955 were tabulated longitudinally by marriage duration and birth order. The figures were used as numerators of fertility rates of forty marriage cohorts, specific for duration and birth order ; the twenty-four oldest cohorts had virtually completed fertility. For the denominators of the rates, the cohorts of initial size (estimated by a method similar to that described by P. H. Karmel) were survived by observing changes over time through divorce, death, widowhood, war-widowhood, and net external migration. The aim was to provide a set of data of the best possible approximation on variations of cohort fertility.

Total cohort rates, cumulated for twenty years’ duration of marriage, and segmental rates of relevant sub-periods are given for parities o to 7+. Total rates of the cohorts of completed fertility yielded values of family size, and were also used for parity progression ratios (by L. Henry’s formula). Segmental rates permitted a study of changes in timing maternities.

The analysis, which needs as a corollary a nuptiality analysis, is concerned, so far with past experience. It confirms the decline in number and proportion of large families. Both the parity progression ratios, and segmental rates of cohorts of as yet incomplete fertility, suggest some recent recovery in three- and fourchild families. For total fertility, such recovery might even be more significant than the observed decline in large families. On the other hand, birth-order specific changes in timing suggest lengthening of intervals among older cohorts as a trend upon which is superimposed the fluctuation due to postponement of, and recovery of a portion of postponed maternities. A construction of hypothetical timing patterns for incomplete cohorts by a simplified method of projection does not lead very far without support of observations on spacing that differentiate for family size.     

Race, socioeconomic status, and return migration to New Orleans after Hurricane Katrina

Hurricane Katrina struck New Orleans on the 29th of August 2005 and displaced virtually the entire population of the city. Soon after, observers predicted the city would become whiter and wealthier as a result of selective return migration, although challenges related to sampling and data collection in a post-disaster environment have hampered evaluation of these hypotheses. In this article, we investigate return to the city by displaced residents over a period of approximately 14 months following the storm, describing overall return rates and examining differences in return rates by race and socioeconomic status. We use unique data from a representative sample of pre-Katrina New Orleans residents collected in the Displaced New Orleans Residents Pilot Survey. We find that black residents returned to the city at a much slower pace than white residents even after controlling for socioeconomic status and demographic characteristics. However, the racial disparity disappears after controlling for housing damage. We conclude that blacks tended to live in areas that experienced greater flooding and hence suffered more severe housing damage which, in turn, led to their delayed return to the city. The full-scale survey of displaced residents being fielded in 2009–2010 will show whether the repopulation of the city was selective over a longer period.     

New evidence on the fertility transition in Ireland 1880–1911

Recent analyses of Ireland's marital fertility transition based on the Princeton Ig and the Stanford CPA measures are reassessed. Revised county estimates of Ig are subjected to regression analysis, and added insight into CPA is offered by comparing Ireland with Scotland and applying the measure to three specially constructed local data sets.     

Population recovery in New Orleans after Hurricane Katrina: exploring the potential role of stage migration in migration systems

In this research brief, we explore how places affected by natural disasters recover their populations through indirect, or “stage,” migration. Specifically, we consider the idea that post-disaster impediments (e.g., housing and property damage) in disaster-affected areas spawn migration flows toward and, over time, to disaster-affected areas through intermediary destinations. Taking as our case Orleans Parish over a 5-year period after Hurricane Katrina, we show that stage migration accounted for up to about one-fourth of population recovery. We close by discussing the implications, limitations, and potential extensions of our work.     

Recovery migration to the City of New Orleans after Hurricane Katrina: a migration systems approach

Hurricane Katrina’s effect on the population of the City of New Orleans provides a model of how severe weather events, which are likely to increase in frequency and strength as the climate warms, might affect other large coastal cities. Our research focuses on changes in the migration system—defined as the system of ties between Orleans Parish and all other U.S. counties—between the pre-disaster (1999–2004) and recovery (2007–2009) periods. Using Internal Revenue Service county-to-county migration flow data, we find that in the recovery period, Orleans Parish increased the number of migration ties with and received larger migration flows from nearby counties in the Gulf of Mexico coastal region, thereby spatially concentrating and intensifying the in-migration dimension of this predominantly urban system, while the out-migration dimension contracted and had smaller flows. We interpret these changes as the migration system relying on its strongest ties to nearby and less-damaged counties to generate recovery in-migration.     

New directions for the study of Australia’s fertility decline

Most studies of Australia’s historical fertility decline have emphased the similarities of the pace and composition of the decline with those of the United Kingdom, continental European countries, and other colonies settled by the British. Recent scholarship has questioned the usefulness of focusing on aggregate data that give misleading impressions of homogeneity. Preferred methodological approaches take a holistic view to the determinants of fertility change within a local context. The scope for analogous studies in Australia is considered, through a review of potential source materials and research questions.     

Intergenerational fertility among hispanic women: New evidence of immigrant assimilation

In recent decades, rapid growth of the U.S. Hispanic population has raised concerns about immigrant adaptation, including fertility. Empirical research suggests that Hispanics, especially Mexicans, might not be following the historical European pattern of rapid intergenerational fertility decline (and convergence toward native levels). If confirmed, continued high Hispanic fertility could indicate a broader lack of assimilation into mainstream American society. In this paper, we reexamine the issue of Hispanic and Mexican fertility using an approach that combines biological and immigrant generations to more closely approximate a comparison of immigrant women with those of their daughters’ and granddaughters’ generation. Contrary to cross-sectional results, our new analyses show that Hispanic and Mexican fertility is converging with that of whites, and that it is similarly responsive to period conditions and to women’s level of education. In addition, we employ a mathematical simulation to illustrate the conditions under which cross-sectional analyses can produce misleading results. Finally, we discuss the import of the fertility convergence we document for debates about immigrant assimilation.     

New insights into the fertility patterns of recent Polish migrants in the United Kingdom

There have been important changes in the United Kingdom’s fertility and immigration in the past decade, with a large share contributed by migrants from Poland. A detailed understanding of Polish migrant fertility is lacking, however, because the relevant data are not routinely collected. This paper provides new insights into the fertility patterns of Polish migrants in the UK, and compares these patterns with those of other large immigrant groups, the UK-born population and in Poland. We use the UK Labour Force Survey with the Own Children Method, illustrating the potential of survey data for estimating immigrant fertility in settings where other data are unavailable. We first compare the fertility patterns of recent Polish migrants with those of other key recent immigrant groups and the UK-born population; estimating Age-Specific Fertility Rates (ASFRs), and Total Fertility Rates (TFRs), by country of birth for the 2004–2012 period; the proportions in each immigrant group that arrive without children; and of those childless at arrival the proportions of women who go on to have births within a short period after arrival. Next, we compare the ASFRs and TFR for Polish migrant women with those observed in Poland. Our results show that the fertility of Polish migrants is among the lowest for all population subgroups in the UK, and that Polish migrants are less likely to have children soon after arrival than other immigrant groups. The findings are consistent with migration not being so closely linked to family formation for Polish migrants as it is for immigrants in the comparison groups. We also find that the fertility patterns of Polish migrants are different from those observed in Poland with a later childbearing profile and a slightly higher TFR.     

New estimates of fertility and child mortality in Africa, south of the Sahara

Summary Earlier work by Page and Coale has estimated demographic indices of fertility and mortality for parts of Africa using the Sullivan modification of Brass's technique. The present paper presents modified and more accurate estimates of fertility and child mortality, not only for the sub-national units covered by Page and Coale but also for areas not covered by them. The present analysis which employs Trussell's refinement of Brass and Sullivan's techniques also includes improvements overlooked in earlier estimates. The salient finding that emerges is that while the Brass mortality technique is very powerful, his equally ingenious fertility technique is very weak and should not be relied on for estimating fertility parameters.     

Intermediate fertility variables and marital fertility rates

Summary Using relatively simple mathematical techniques, an analysis is made of a comprehensive reproductive model that describes the relationships between a set of intermediate fertility variables and the marital fertility rate. Two types of intermediate fertility variables are distinguished: (1) biological parameters and (2) control variables. A homogeneous model is outlined first. Next, this version is extended to include heterogeneity with respect to fecundability and coital rates. Tests of the model with data from two historical populations (i.e. Crulai, 1674-1742, and Tourouvre au Perche, 1665-1765) demonstrate that the model is, indeed, consistent with observed reproductive behaviour in actual populations.     

Recent fertility decline in Ceylon

Abstract The crude birth rate for Ceylon has been falling steadily between 1960 and 1970, except for a slight interruption in 1968. The fall between 1953 and 1963 has been documented elsewhere and this paper will therefore deal with the period 1963-69.