Cohort shifts in the timing of births in Ghana

A comparison of cohorts of ever-married Chanaian women suggests evidence of a fertility transition beginning among younger women and select subgroups. Ghana's crude birth rate declined from a high of 50/1000 population in 1970 to 38.8/1000 in 1985. To ascertain whether marital fertility is now being controlled through conscious attempts to lengthen birth intervals, World Fertility Survey data from 1979-80 on the timing of births among different birth cohorts were analyzed. It was hypothesized that, as a result of the influence of Western values that stress independence from parents and the introduction of compulsory education, cohorts of the mid-1950s and 1960s would be more likely to postpone childbearing, more active in the modern sector of the economy, and more accepting of modern contraceptive usage for birth spacing than women in the 1930-39, 1940-49, and 1950-59 cohorts. For the 1940-49 cohort, it took 10.8 months for 25% to have a birth following 1st marriage, 18.7 months for 50% to have a 1st birth, and 27.4 months for 75% to complete this step. By comparison, these figures for the 1955-64 birth cohort were 9.9, 16.7, and 20.5 months, respectively. The significantly shorter (p 0.01) interval between marriage and 1st birth found among younger women in part reflects rising age at marriage; mean age at 1st marriage was 17.9 years for the 1940 cohort and 21.6 years for the most recent cohort. After the birth of the 1st child, recent cohorts were more likely to wait longer for the 2nd birth. For women born in 1950-64, it took 21.8, 36.7, and 44.6 months for 25%, 50%, and 75%, respectively, to reach parity 2. This pattern of lengthened birth interval beyond the 1st birth was apparent at all parities in the youngest cohort and indicates increasing acceptance of contraception among those who have come of age during a period of rapid social change.     

THE TREND IN "NO RELIGION" RESPONDENTS TO U.S. NATIONAL SURVEYS, LATE 1950s TO EARLY 1980s

Data from 110 U.S. national surveys are used to study the trendin "no religion" responses from the late 1950s to the early1980s. The trend was monotonically upward, at least until the1980s, when there were signs of leveling off or an incipientreversal of the trend. The trend came about through both changeswithin birth cohorts and cohort succession, and it involvedpersons of all major religious backgrounds and both men andwomen. Whether or not the change indicates an important degreeof secularization is considered at length. Problems involvedin using a dichotomous indicator to gauge change in a quantitativevariable are discussed.     

Income Adequacy and Social Security Differences Between the Foreign‐Born and U.S.‐Born1

This paper projects retirement income and Social Security taxes and benefits among the foreign‐born and U.S.‐born in the United States. Focusing on the Depression and the late baby boom birth cohorts, we find that foreign‐born persons have higher poverty rates than the U.S.‐born, and as a group do not receive higher lifetime net benefits from Social Security than do the U.S.‐born. However, persons from the late baby boom cohort who immigrated after 1969 have higher projected rates of return in Social Security than do U.S.‐born persons of the same birth cohort.     

Wahlbeteiligung im Lebensverlauf

This empirical investigation attempts to answer the question whether the change in voter turnout at the German general elections is related to cohort specific voting behavior of political generations, also taking into account age and period effects. Furthermore, it is asked whether the decline of voter turnout after the 1972 German general election is a statistical artefact of official statistics. Both questions are investigated with retrospective life history data about voting behavior of individuals from several birth cohorts. It is analyzed that the voter turnout has really declined in the 1980s because of the increased number of determined non-voters. There is evidence that the changes of the voting behavior of younger individuals in successive political generations results in the social change of the general voter turnout. While the effects of the citizens’ age on the voter turnout are minimal for the whole period between 1953 and 1987, the impact of period effects are less important for the historical change of voter turnout as often assumed.     

CHANGEABLE WEATHER IN A COOLING CLIMATE ATOP THE LIBERAL PLATEAU: CONVERSION AND REPLACEMENT IN FORTY-TWO GENERAL SOCIAL SURVEY ITEMS, 1972-1989

This article tracks trends (early 1970s to late 1980s) in U.S.opinion for 42 General Social Survey items with liberal/ conservativeovertones. The broad question is whether the great "liberal"shift since World War II has ended; the narrow issue is therelative importance of cohort succession and intracohort shifts.Despite common impressions, the overall trend is more liberalthan conservative, but it conceals opposing "weather" and "climate"processes. Within cohorts ("weather") I find a conservativetrend between the early and late 1970s and a liberal "rebound"in the 1980s. Between cohorts virtually all items show smallbut cumulative liberalizing produced by cohort succession. Thesecohort effects are declining in magnitude because the associationbetween year of birth and liberalism is nonlinear. I find acurvilinearity such that Americans born after World War II arenot consistently more liberal than their predecessors. Thisshift is not explained by the lesser schooling of youngest adultsor by ceiling effects. Consequently, I predict lessening ofthe liberalizing "climate" produced by cohort succession. Allthese propositions are qualified, depending on the topic, andthe analysis takes heed of the notorious age/period/cohort identificationproblem.     

THE RELATIONSHIP BETWEEN ADOLESCENT NONMARITAL CHILDBEARING AND EDUCATIONAL EXPECTATIONS: A Cohort and Period Comparison

Prior research on the relationship between adolescent childbearing and later life outcomes is deficient in two respects. First, it has focused almost exclusively on socioeconomic octcomes, failing to consider the possible effect of a birth on social psychological outocomes. Second, it generally has ot considered whether the relationship between adolescent choldbearing and outcomes has changed across cohorts and over time. This study attempts to fill these two gaps by estimating and comparing the effects of nonmarital chidbearing on change in a social psychological variable, educational expectations, over the perod between the sophomore year in high school and two years later, using longitudinal data for the sophomore cohorts of High School and Beyond, 1980, and the National Education Londgitudinal Study of 1988. Findings for both cohorts indicate that adolescent girls tend to reduce their educational expectations following a nonmarital pregnancy or birth. In addition, adolescent girls with low educational expectations are at greater risk of a nonmarital pregnancy or birth than adolescent girls with high educational expetions.     

Birth cohort and sex differences in the age of gambling initiation in the United States: evidence from the National Comorbidity Survey Replication

Youth gambling has become a significant public health concern, and it appears that individuals are gambling at younger ages than they did in earlier generations. We tested this question by examining birth cohort differences in the age of onset of gambling in a national epidemiologic survey. Data were drawn from the United States National Comorbidity Survey Replication, a nationally representative general population survey of adults born 1904–84. Individuals were divided into four birth cohorts. The cohorts were compared on their lifetime gambling involvement and age of onset of gambling. Significant birth cohort and sex differences were found in the age of gambling initiation, with more recently born cohorts starting to gamble at progressively earlier ages, and men starting to gamble at younger ages than women. The mean age of onset of gambling for individuals born before 1942 was 32.9 years, and for those born between 1973 and 1984 it was 16.9 years. The overall mean ages of onset of gambling were 20.8 for men and 26.4 for women, but more recently born women appear to be ‘catching up’ with their male counterparts. This decreasing age of gambling initiation may help explain the increasing prevalence of disordered gambling in the United States.     

Women's work, cohort change, and health

Rapid changes in women's labor force participation, access to good jobs, and changing work-family pressures have altered the landscape of work and family life. We use logit negative binomial hurdle models to examine whether these countervailing trends have affected the physical health of women across four birth cohorts. Longitudinal data are used to compare successive cohorts of U.S. women when they are between the ages 44 and 50. While the health of women overall did not change across cohorts, we find an increase in health problems among employed women, explained by increases in the ability of women with physical limitations to become and remain employed. Health problems among housewives decline across cohorts, resulting in better health among housewives than among employed women in the most recent cohort. These findings provide further evidence of the importance of selection processes in understanding health effects of roles, and they highlight the need for greater attention to the health effects of unpaid work.     

Mexican Americans’ Lucky Few and Baby Boom Cohorts: How Is Relative Cohort Size Related to the Likelihood of Being Out-of-Poverty?

Generational cohorts influence individuals’ economic life chances. Retrospective analysis has found that the “Lucky Few” generation had better life chances than previous generations. We focus on Mexican Americans in the United States and offer a prospective analysis to explore how relative cohort size plays a role in the odds of their being out-of-poverty. Using Public Use Microdata Sample files from 1990, 2000, and 2010, we test the hypothesis by comparing Early Baby Boom (those born between 1946 and 1955) and Late Baby Boom (those born between 1956 and 1965) cohorts to the Lucky Few (born between 1936 and 1945) cohort. Models predicting the odds of being out-of-poverty during the peak wage-earning years indicate that belonging to the Lucky Few cohort affords Mexican Americans no economic advantage. Our findings demonstrate that the relative cohort size hypothesis may not always be generalized to Mexican American minority samples.     

Cohort Differences in Joint Retirement: Evidence from the Health and Retirement Study

The dramatic rise and sustained participation of recent cohorts of women in the labor force has coincided with their increased attachment to the labor market. In this paper we use twelve waves of the Health and Retirement Study (1992-2014) and investigate how married couples belonging to more recent birth cohorts compare with their predecessors in terms of coordinating their retirement decisions. Using a multinomial logit model we estimate the labor force dynamics of dual-earner married couples and find that couples with wives belonging to more recent birth cohorts are less likely to jointly exit the labor force. Further, this declining cohort trend in joint retirement can only partially be explained by commonly observed socio-economic, employment, and health related factors that affect retirement decisions, suggesting an important role for cohort changes in preferences and social norms such as preference for work and attitudes toward gender roles.     

Working after childbirth: a lifecourse transition analysis of Canadian women from the 1970s to the 2000s

In this paper we compare cohorts of mothers who had their first children between 1970 and 1999, in terms of their probability of beginning work shortly after childbearing. Using the 2001 General Social Survey, Cycle 15 on Family History, we investigate the effects of women's socioeconomic characteristics on labor force withdrawal. Our discussion focuses on the analysis of the transition as a type of life course analysis. We underline the differentiation of the transition by cohorts, educational attainment, income, et cetera. We show that since the mid-1980s, mothers with low educational attainment are dramatically excluded from the labor market within the two years following the birth of their first child.     

Historical Trends in the Marital Intentions of One‐Time and Serial Cohabitors

This study explored whether cohabitors' marital intentions have changed over time and whether they are sensitive to a person's cohabitation history, that is, the number of cohabitations individuals have experienced. Using a sample of ever‐cohabited women, 16–28 years old, from the 2002 and 2006–2010 National Survey of Family Growth (N = 6,023), the author found that the prevalence of serial cohabitation continues to increase among younger birth cohorts. Furthermore, the share of female cohabitors with plans to marry has been declining across time, net of demographic controls and cohabitation history. Serial cohabitation has strong negative associations with marital intentions, a pattern that was not present among the oldest birth cohort but has emerged among more recent cohorts. These findings extend prior work by showing that the downward trend in cohabitors' marital intentions is continuing among the youngest cohort of women and, importantly, is not explained by serial cohabitation.     

The changing meaning of cohabitation and marriage

"In the Netherlands, the social meaning of both marriage and cohabitation has changed. Cohabitation started as an alternative way of living, developed into a temporary phase before marriage, and finally became a strategy for moving into a union gradually....This article addresses the question whether or not individual past and current life-course experiences become increasingly important in explaining the differentiation of entry into marriage across female birth cohorts, and yet become decreasingly important in explaining the differentiation of entry into cohabitation across female birth cohorts. This question is examined using a non-proportional hazard model. Empirical evidence supports this hypothesis strongly, in that both past determinants such as family size or religion and current life-course determinants such as work or education change in their impact on cohabitation and marriage across birth cohorts."     

Timing Effects on Divorce: 20th Century Experience in the United States

Period divorce measures can misrepresent the underlying behavior of birth cohorts as changes in cohort timing produce changes in period probabilities of divorce. Building on methods used to adjust period fertility and marriage measures, we adjust U.S. period divorce rates for timing effects, calculating a timing index for every year between 1910 and 2000. The adjusted probability of divorce, PMED*, increases nearly linearly from 1910 through 1990, remaining at about that level through 2000. Period measures greatly exaggerate divorce risks from the early 1970s to the mid‐1980s, but understate them at other times. Adjusted values for recent years do not suggest a decline in the likelihood of divorce, with year 2000 values indicating a divorce probability of 0.43 – 0.46.     

Did Growing Up in the 1960s Leave a Permanent Mark on Attitudes and Values?: Evidence from the General Social Survey

This paper explores the "tree ring" hypothesis that reachingyoung adulthood during certain historical periods raises orlowers attitudes above and beyond the contribution of demographicvariables and long-term cohort trends. It examines the deviationsfrom long-term, linear, cohort trends for twenty-eight NationalOpinion Research Center (NORC) General Social Survey (GSS) attitudeitems in birth cohorts reaching age 16 in the 1950s, 1960s,and post-1960s. Long-term cohort trends are estimated from regressionsof attitudes on cohorts reaching age 16 from 1917 to 1950 (netof year and five demographics). Popular impressions are supportedin that "rings" (residuals) are more liberal for Americans reachingage 16 in the 1960s. However, those reaching age 16 in the 1950sare more liberal than their immediate predecessors, not moreconservative. Furthermore, the three periods are not strikinglydistinctive as the items showing positive rings tend to be thesame in each period.     

Gambling on Electronic Gaming Machines in Germany: An Age-Period-Cohort Analysis

To provide insights into etiological factors of gambling at the population level, it is critical to document the separate contributions of biological aging, period influences, and birth cohorts on observed temporal trends in gambling. This study investigated age, period, and cohort effects on prevalence rates of electronic gaming machine (EGM) gambling in Germany. We used data from a series of repeated cross-sectional surveys from the Federal Centre for Health Education covering the period 2007–2015. A total of 53,005 participants were surveyed about their past-year participation in EGMs. Using the intrinsic estimator, we disentangled the separate effects of age (16–17 to 64–65 years), period (2007, 2009, 2011, 2013, 2015), and birth cohort (1941–42 to 1997–98). Age effects were highest for those aged 18–33 (p < 0.001). Period effects were highest in 2013 and lowest in 2015 (p < 0.005). A significant increasing birth cohort effect was evident in cohorts born between 1985 and 1998 (p < 0.005). Implications of these results are discussed with regard to the vulnerability of younger ages to gambling, period changes in the regulatory framework of Germany, and differential cohort vulnerability of the Millennial generation due to early-life video gaming experiences.     

Sibship size and educational attainment in peninsular Malaysia: do policies matter?

This study examines the effects of sibship size on secondary school attainment in Malaysia. Data were obtained from the 1989 Malaysian Second Family Life Survey among a sample of individuals aged 19-38 years in 1989 who were born during 1938-69. The sample included 1749 Malays, 1071 Chinese, and 523 Indians. Subsamples divided persons into those born during the period 1950-59 and those born during 1960-69. 98% of the sample had a primary education. Almost 66% had attained a secondary school education: 23% of Malays, 34% of Chinese, and 30% of Indians. 97% had at least one sibling. The percentage of non-Malays with a secondary school education (SSE) decreased with an increase in sibship size. Sibship size was unrelated to SSE among Malays. It is pointed out that the preferential policies were probably a stronger impetus for secondary attainment among Malays than sibship size. Finer analysis by cohort revealed that only in the cohort born during 1950-59 did sibship size have no significant effect on SSE. Sibship size had a significantly negative impact among children born during 1960-69 and the impact was greater for Malays than non-Malays. The magnitude of the effect for Malays was twice as large in the 1960-69 cohort as in the 1950-59 cohort, while the magnitude of the impact of sibship size for non-Malays was the same for both birth cohorts. Average sibship size for non-Malays declined sharply over time, while it remained stable for Malays. Logistic analysis revealed few differences between ethnic groups in the predicted probabilities for the 1950-59 cohort when individual and family factors were accounted for. Findings suggest that non-Malays' adjustment by decreasing their fertility or changing family resource allocations could not entirely compensate for increases in the cost of education or reductions in the return to education. The benefit was the closing of the gap between Malays and non-Malays with regard to children's likelihood of SSE.     

Erwerbseinstieg und erste Erwerbsjahre

The debate about the structural change of the labor market and the organization of dependent work has not been decided, neither theoretically nor empirically. This paper investigates on the basis of data from the GSOEP (German Socio Economic Panel) the entry into the labor market and the first years of gainful employment for four birth cohorts. The central focus of our argumentation lies on the following questions: Is there an increase of atypical entries into the labor market (aged 15 to 26) — i.e. part-time employment, unemployment or non labor market participation — and what proportion of their first years of working life (aged 15 to 36) do people spend in full-time employment. The results show a rise of atypical entries into the labor market for the younger cohorts. The duration of male full-time employment will be shorter because of longer education periods, while this duration rises for women as a result of decreasing relevance of housewife work. An atypical entry into the labor market has long-term consequences for the further working life, so that it hardly can be compensated. A de-standardization of the entry into the working life is most frequent for men and women with lower professional qualification. The results show that society is increasingly polarizing along the lines of qualified and non-qualified persons.     

Change in Gender‐Ideology, 1977–1996:The Contributions of Intracohort Change and Population Turnover

This paper addresses the processes underlying the dramatic shift in beliefs about women's work and family roles in the United States over the past two decades. Following Mason and Lu (1988) , we posited this shift to be a function of actual change in individual opinions, as well as changes in population membership that result from births and deaths. Using pooled cross‐sections from the General Social Surveys (1977 to 1996), we found that although demographic processes and microlevel attitude change are both important in understanding attitude trends, the contribution of cohort succession is substantially greater now than in the period that Mason and Lu examined. Multivariate analyses show that (a) the sex difference in attitudes is greater among recent cohorts, and (b) the strong association between education and attitudes that characterized earlier cohorts is significantly weaker among cohorts born after 1945.     

Associations of Childhood Religious Attendance,Family Structure,and Nonmarital Fertility Across Cohorts

This article considers associations among childhood family structure, childhood religious service attendance, and the probability of having a nonmarital first birth before age 30 for non‐Hispanic White women born 1944 to 1964 using data from the 1988 and 1995 waves of the National Survey of Family Growth (N = 5,995). We found that attending religious services weekly during childhood and growing up in a 2‐biological‐parent family were associated with lower odds of having had a nonmarital first birth. These associations were quite stable across cohorts, although religious attendance was less associated with nonmarital fertility for the youngest cohort. We estimate that changes in these childhood experiences account for 22% of the increase in nonmarital first births across these cohorts.