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复杂决策问题求解的定性与定量综合集成方法 总被引:15,自引:4,他引:11
就复杂决策问题求解的定性与定量综合集成方法研究领域中如何实现复杂问题的表示、理解与求解等问题提出了看法 ,并针对复杂决策问题 ,建立了一个更加符合人类思维习惯的综合集成方法三层次理论框架 ,该框架由复杂问题定性简化处理层、复杂问题定量分析层及复杂问题定性定量综合集成求解层三个层次组成 ,同时研析了这三个组成层次的主要研究内容 .本文在运用综合集成方法解决问题过程 ,如何实现人机完美结合问题也作了有益的探索 相似文献
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本文讨论一类含整变量的非线性两层决策问题.文中运用拉格朗日松弛技巧构造了两层问题的线性定界函数,针对上层决策变量全为一般整变量的非线性两层决策问题,提出了一种实用有效的求解方法. 相似文献
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线性二层决策问题的期望收益模型及算法 总被引:7,自引:0,他引:7
下层反应不唯一时 ,如何确定二层线性决策问题最优策略为一非确定型决策问题 .对此类问题 ,本文通过引入领导者对追随者合作程度的期望系数 ,提出期望收益模型 .利用双罚函数把该问题转换为一单层次优化问题 ,并提出一种求解问题的全局优化算法 .应用此模型分析二层线性问题可知 :对存在不确定性反应的二层决策问题 ,下层追随者与上层领导者的合作态度是领导者确定其最优策略的关键 ;对下层追随者而言 ,某些情况下 ,采取与领导者部分合作的态度对其自身收益的提高是合理的 相似文献
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组织信任危机现象是我国当前供应链合作运作中存在的关键问题之一.为了有效避免供应链合作中企业间组织信任危机的发生,进而保证供应链合作的有效性,该文提出了一种进行组织信任危机可能性诊断的灰色群诊断方法.在对组织信任基本特征归集的基础上,使用能够体现信任者经验知识和主观意愿的诊断指标体系构建了一种主观意愿隶属度的量化准则.在分析了信任危机可能性诊断基本特征的基础上,提出了供应链企业信任危机可能性诊断的框架模型.针对该框架的技术实现层,通过形式化技术分别构建了信任危机可能性诊断中的信任者代理主观意愿白化处理机制、多代理灰色群诊断机制和信任危机可能性灰色群诊断集成等关键技术.将该方法应用到一个实例中取得了较好的应用效果. 相似文献
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本文根据教研室工作的特点和需求,设计基于J2EE轻量级框架下的教研室信息化管理系统.采用Spring框架作为业务层框架,采用Hibernate框架作为持久层框架.整合集成后的系统层次清晰,代码耦合度降低,有利于系统的维护和扩展. 相似文献
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专家群体思维收敛的研究 总被引:31,自引:0,他引:31
讨论一个复杂的决策问题, 专家群体决策是解决这类问题的一种有效方法. 当专家群体
研讨形成了一些定性的方案之后, 用群体一致性算法, 使专家群体的思维逐渐趋于收敛, 最终
达到群体意见一致. 在上述过程中主持人的作用非常重要, 他引导专家群体达成一致, 提高了
群体决策的效率. 专家群体思维收敛的整个过程体现了人机结合的思想, 充分发挥了人和计算
机各自的优势, 共同来解决复杂的问题. 相似文献
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Logistic objectives constitute a compromise between having short leadtimes and a low volume of work in progress on the one hand and a high resource loading and due date obligation on the other. Miscellaneous production planning approaches offered today provide different combinations of logistic objectives for satisfying a manufacturing strategy. To combine the strength of the various approaches into a unified system, a new approach based on a dynamic and distributed production planning methodology is proposed. To customize the approach, various analyses and specifications have to be made and for that reason some important characteristics and criteria for analysing production control philosophies will be given. 相似文献
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Penny Dick 《Work and stress》2000,14(3):226-244
The police profession is one in which acute stressors are encountered more frequently than in other occupations. Using the personal accounts of 35 police officers attending an in-house stress counselling clinic, the aim of the present study was to provide a qualitative examination of how the institutional context of policing influenced the ways in which acute stressors signified to individual police officers experiencing felt distress. Using the framework of Rational Emotive Behaviour Therapy as an analytical tool, it is argued that beliefs contributing to the experience of felt distress are related to the way in which policing as both an identity and an activity is constructed through the police organizational culture. Not only do these constructions influence the ways in which officers perceive themselves and their environments, but they also operate at the collective level to 'normalize' some emotional responses and to 'pathologize' others which, it is argued, could impact upon the outcomes of interventions such as stress counselling. 相似文献
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This paper examines whether social support is a boundary-determining criterion in the job strain model of Karasek (1979). The particular focus is the extent to which different sources of social support, work overload and task control influence job satisfaction, depersonalization and supervisor assessments of work performance. Hypotheses are tested using prospective survey data from 80 clerical staff in a university setting. Results revealed 3-way interactions among levels of support (supervisor, co-worker, non-work), perceived task control and work overload on levels of work performance and employee adjustment (self-report). After controlling for levels of negative affect in all analyses, there was evidence that high levels of supervisor support mitigated against the negative effects of high strain jobs on levels of job satisfaction and reduced reported levels of depersonalization. Moreover, high levels of non-work support and co-worker support also mitigated against the negative effects of high strain jobs on levels of work performance. The results are discussed in terms of the importance of social support networks both at, and beyond, the work context. 相似文献
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Job insecurity, coping resources and personality dispositions in occupational strain 总被引:1,自引:0,他引:1
This paper presents research on the relationships between the work-related stressor of perceived job insecurity and various indicators of occupational strain, taking into account employees' personality dispositions (trait negative and positive affectivity) and coping resources. Respondents were 222 Australian public servants surveyed during organizational restructuring that involved downsizing and threat to job certainty. The research was formulated within an adaptation of Osipow, Doty, and Spokane's (1985) framework of stress-strain-coping that included the possible direct as well as moderating effects of personality dispositions in reporting occupational strain (Parkes, 1990). Findings from hierarchical regression analyses indicate consistent significant independent effects of personality dispositions, coping resources and perceived job insecurity on various indicators of strain. There was also support for the moderating roles of negative affectivity and self-care in the relation between perceived job insecurity and physical strain. Implications for the role of dispositional factors, especially negative affectivity, and the utility of various coping resources in accounting for occupational strain in times of threatened job security are discussed. 相似文献
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H. Christopher Frey 《Risk analysis》2002,22(3):539-545
This guest editorial is a summary of the NCSU/USDA Workshop on Sensitivity Analysis held June 11–12, 2001 at North Carolina State University and sponsored by the U.S. Department of Agriculture's Office of Risk Assessment and Cost Benefit Analysis. The objective of the workshop was to learn across disciplines in identifying, evaluating, and recommending sensitivity analysis methods and practices for application to food‐safety process risk models. The workshop included presentations regarding the Hazard Assessment and Critical Control Points (HACCP) framework used in food‐safety risk assessment, a survey of sensitivity analysis methods, invited white papers on sensitivity analysis, and invited case studies regarding risk assessment of microbial pathogens in food. Based on the sharing of interdisciplinary information represented by the presentations, the workshop participants, divided into breakout sessions, responded to three trigger questions: What are the key criteria for sensitivity analysis methods applied to food‐safety risk assessment? What sensitivity analysis methods are most promising for application to food safety and risk assessment? and What are the key needs for implementation and demonstration of such methods? The workshop produced agreement regarding key criteria for sensitivity analysis methods and the need to use two or more methods to try to obtain robust insights. Recommendations were made regarding a guideline document to assist practitioners in selecting, applying, interpreting, and reporting the results of sensitivity analysis. 相似文献
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Toon W. Taris Paul J. G. Schreurs Ingrid J. Van Iersel-Van Silfhout 《Work and stress》2001,15(4):283-296
This study examined the antecedents of job strain (emotional exhaustion, health complaints) and withdrawal behaviour (e.g. lowered organizational commitment) among a cross-sectional sample of 131 academic staff members of the law department of a large Dutch university. Conservation of resources theory (Hobfoll, 1989) provided the theoretical background for this study. Strains and withdrawal behaviours were expected to be most prominent among those who reported having few resources and/or who reported high job demands. Structural equation modelling revealed that this was indeed the case. As predicted, differential patterns of effects emerged for job demands and job resources. Analysis of the effects of four job-specific stressors revealed that especially the structural aspects of a staff member's teaching task (e.g. the number of students in their classes) contributed strongly to perceived job demands. Theoretical and practical implications of the study are discussed. 相似文献
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Kenneth T. Bogen 《Risk analysis》2013,33(7):1334-1352
Average rates of total dermal uptake (Kup) from short‐term (e.g., bathing) contact with dilute aqueous organic chemicals (DAOCs) are typically estimated from steady‐state in vitro diffusion‐cell measures of chemical permeability (Kp) through skin into receptor solution. Widely used (“PCR‐vitro”) methods estimate Kup by applying diffusion theory to increase Kp predictions made by a physico‐chemical regression (PCR) model that was fit to a large set of Kp measures. Here, Kup predictions for 18 DAOCs made by three PCR‐vitro models (EPA, NIOSH, and MH) were compared to previous in vivo measures obtained by methods unlikely to underestimate Kup. A new PCR model fit to all 18 measures is accurate to within approximately threefold (r = 0.91, p < 10?5), but the PCR‐vitro predictions (r > 0.63) all tend to underestimate the Kup measures by mean factors (UF, and p value for testing UF = 1) of 10 (EPA, p < 10?6), 11 (NIOSH, p < 10?8), and 6.2 (MH, p = 0.018). For all three PCR‐vitro models, log(UF) correlates negatively with molecular weight (r2 = 0.31 to 0.84, p = 0.017 to < 10?6) but not with log(vapor pressure) as an additional predictor (p > 0.05), so vapor pressure appears not to explain the significant in vivo/PCR‐vitro discrepancy. Until this discrepancy is explained, careful in vivo measures of Kup should be obtained for more chemicals, the expanded in vivo database should be compared to in vitro‐based predictions, and in vivo data should be considered in assessing aqueous dermal exposure and its uncertainty. 相似文献
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Systems Resilience for Multihazard Environments: Definition,Metrics, and Valuation for Decision Making 总被引:2,自引:0,他引:2
Bilal M. Ayyub 《Risk analysis》2014,34(2):340-355
The United Nations Office for Disaster Risk Reduction reported that the 2011 natural disasters, including the earthquake and tsunami that struck Japan, resulted in $366 billion in direct damages and 29,782 fatalities worldwide. Storms and floods accounted for up to 70% of the 302 natural disasters worldwide in 2011, with earthquakes producing the greatest number of fatalities. Average annual losses in the United States amount to about $55 billion. Enhancing community and system resilience could lead to massive savings through risk reduction and expeditious recovery. The rational management of such reduction and recovery is facilitated by an appropriate definition of resilience and associated metrics. In this article, a resilience definition is provided that meets a set of requirements with clear relationships to the metrics of the relevant abstract notions of reliability and risk. Those metrics also meet logically consistent requirements drawn from measure theory, and provide a sound basis for the development of effective decision‐making tools for multihazard environments. Improving the resiliency of a system to meet target levels requires the examination of system enhancement alternatives in economic terms, within a decision‐making framework. Relevant decision analysis methods would typically require the examination of resilience based on its valuation by society at large. The article provides methods for valuation and benefit‐cost analysis based on concepts from risk analysis and management. 相似文献
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Problems in studying occupational stress within the police service are identified and the paucity of work on operational duties as potential stressors are discussed. The present study reports the results of a factor analysis of operational stressors (N = 601 serving British police officers) that revealed three factors: exposure to death and disaster; violence and injury; sexual crime. These were demonstrated to be reliable scales and were included in logistic regression models together with a range of demographic and psychological variables. Models were applied to men and women separately, which showed there to be different predictors of the likelihood of suffering distress (measured by the General Health Questionnaire, GHQ) in terms of the officer's gender and operational role. Overall the model for women officers was better at predicting psychological distress than that for men. These findings are related to aspects of the police occupational culture. Further discussion is offered that conceptualizes police operational stressors as traumatic, routine and vicarious. Finally, some implications are drawn for the provision of stress intervention in the light of this differentiation. 相似文献
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UNIX系统性能监控简述及shell系统资源统计程序 总被引:1,自引:0,他引:1
本文简要阐述了unix系统中(主要以IBM的AIX为例)进行系统性能管理的几种命令行工具,并通过编写shell实例程序,运用其中提到的工具实现系统资源利用率的统计程序,为做好unix系统管理和调优提供参考. 相似文献