Population redistribution policy in Korea: A review

With its rapid industrial transformation over the last two decades, Korea has experienced a massive population shift from rural to urban areas. In particular, population concentration together with the concentration of economic and political power in the primate city of Seoul created spatial imbalances and a host of urban problems which are not uncommon to many developing nations. In response to these persisting imbalances and problems, the government of Korea has implemented various programs and measures since 1970. Korea's experiment with population redistribution, although it may not be easily replicated in other countries, provides a rare example with which we can examine some of the major issues involved in population distribution policies. The paper reviews Korean policies and programs for population redistribution, assesses their effects in redressing the three major spatial imbalances - between urban and rural, between regions, and between cities of different sizes - and draws lessons for policy formation in Korea as well as in other countries which are considering such a policy.     

论人口控制政策对突破低水平均衡陷阱的促进作用

当今世界主题是和平与发展,因此经济发展成为多数国家政府政策的中心。目前多数发展中国家实施了人口控制政策,这有利于减缓世界人口剧增的趋势。但是这是否有利于发展中国家的经济发展呢?文章结合一定前提,通过定性探讨纳尔逊低水平均衡理论在人口非自然增长情况下的具体体现,得出了结论:发展中国家实施人口控制政策能够降低突破低水平均衡陷阱的机会成本,有助于加快走出低水平均衡陷阱困境的状态;长期实施过紧的人口控制政策不利于国家经济的可持续发展;人口控制政策的松绑是一个渐进式过程。     

The second great wall of China: Evolution of a successful policy of population control

Since the 1949 revolution, Chinese population policy has undergone many shifts that have alternated with general political trends. However, in the past two decades the policy has grown increasingly antinatalist as a response to slower-than-desired economic development and rapid population growth. The remarkable declines of fertility during this period have been made possible by effective contraceptive technology, efficient administration, tight political organization down to grass-roots levels, and by linking national goals of population control to patriotism. Recent minor reverses in policy and in fertility suggests that there are practical limits to such policies, but other countries have much to learn from the Chinese experience.This is an updated version of a paper published in theNPG Forum, Negative Population Growth, Inc. October, 1989.     

The International Parliamentary Assembly on Population and Development held in Mexico City

The International Parliamentary Assmebly on Population and Development took place on August 15-16, 1984, with the participation of more than 300 parliamentarians from 60 countries. The aim was to promote an exchange of views on population programs and policies among parliamentarians, and to support the recommendations adopted by the UN International Conference on Population. The assembly held discussion in 3 subcommittees on the subjects of 1) policies of population and development; 2) the legal and social status of women; and 3) the improvement of family planning service. On population policy, parliamentarians generally agreed that policy formulation is the prerogative of each sovereign country, stressing that such policies and programs should be integrated with social and economic development. The developing countries stronly demanded that a new international economic order be established and international aid increased to help them in solving the popultion problem. Concerning the status of women, the assembly unanimously agreed that both men and women should not only be legally equal, but should also have de facto equality for employment, education and social life. Attention should be given particularly to the rights and status of rural women. Examples of how the status of Chinese women has improved were offered by Chinese representative and were appreciated by the assembly. On improving family planning services, participants urged provision of information about birth control to people of marriageable age and of access to contraceptives to eligible couples; moreover, they advocated the strengthening of medical care for women and children and the lowering of infant and maternal mortality rates. Dr. Qian Xinzhong described the priorities and goals of family planning programs in China. Finally, the assembly unanimously adopted the "Action Plan," whose contents embody independence, respect for national sovereignty, and the spirit of cooperation and conformity to the interest of the international community, particularly the developing nations.     

Population policies in socialist countries of Europe

Abstract The emergence, in the mid-sixties, of policies aimed at counteracting rapid fertility decline in some socialist countries of Europe is discussed in the paper. Following a summary of recent population trends and policies in nine European socialist countries, and brief comments on ideological and theoretical considerations, factors relevant to policy decision are discussed. Population policies aiming at encouraging fertility exist in five countries, viz. German Demographic Republic, Romania, Bulgaria, Hungary and Czechoslovakia. Recent developments appear to include attempts to stimulate third births with measures aiming to improve economic conditions of large families, the status of women, education and restriction of induced abortion.     

Economic and Institutional Context and Second Births in Seven European Countries

The extent to which mothers progress to a second child varies greatly between European countries. Although both institutional and economic context are believed to be partly responsible for these differences, available research on economic conditions and fertility mostly focuses on first births and studies on family policy and fertility have hitherto insufficiently addressed population heterogeneity. Combining longitudinal microdata from the Harmonized Histories with contextual data on labour market uncertainty and family policy, this paper uses discrete-time hazard models to analyse the impact of economic and institutional context on second birth hazards of 22,298 women in 7 European countries between 1970 and 2002. Particular attention is paid to variation in the contextual effects by level of education. We find that aggregate-level unemployment and temporary employment reduce second birth hazards, particularly for low- and medium-level educated women. Family policies are positively related to second birth hazards. Whereas family allowances stimulate second births particularly among low educated mothers, the positive effect of childcare is invariant by level of education.     

A summary analysis of the 3rd inquiry

20 ESCAP member countries responded to the "Third Population Inquiry among Governments: Population policies in the context of development in 1976." The questionnaire sent to the member countries covered economic and social development and population growth, mortality, fertility and family formation, population distribution and internal migration, international migration, population data collection and research, training, and institutional arrangements for the formulation of population policies within development. Most of the governments in the ESCAP region that responded indicate that the present rate of population growth constrains their social and economic development. Among the governments that consider the present rate of population growth to constrain economic and social development, 13 countries regarded the most appropriate response to the constraint would include an adjustment of both socioeconomic and demographic factors. 11 of the governments regarded their present levels of average life expectancy at birth "acceptable" and 7 identified their levels as "unacceptable." Most of the governments who responded consider that, in general, their present level of fertility is too high and constrains family well-being. Internal migration and population distribution are coming to be seen as concerns for government population policy. The most popular approaches to distributing economic and social activities are rural development, urban and regional development and industrial dispersion. There was much less concern among the governments returning the questionnaire about the effect of international migration than internal migration on social and economic development.     

Africa's expanding population: old problems,new policies

Sub-Saharan Africa faces an historic challenge: to achieve economic and social progress while experiencing extraordinary population growth. With an estimated 1989 population of 512 million, the 42 countries of sub-Saharan Africa have the highest birth and death rates of any major world region. While death rates have fallen since the 1960s, persistently high birth rates yield annual growth rates above 3% in many countries. The United Nations projects that the region's population will increase 2.7 times by 2025--to 1.4 billion. Throughout the region, population has outstripped economic growth since the mid-1970s. In addition, many African countries are experiencing an epidemic of AIDS (Acquired Immunodeficiency Syndrome). The extent and demographic impact of the epidemic still are unknown, but disturbing social and political effects are already being felt. The region's population growth will slow only when African couples begin to have fewer children. The average number of children per woman ranges from 6 to 8 for most countries. The Africans' preference for large families is deeply rooted in the culture and fed by the perceived economic benefits they receive from their children. Economic stagnation during the 1980s prompted many national governments to recognize that rapid population growth was hindering their socioeconomic development. The political climate has shifted away from pronatalist or laissez-faire attitudes toward official policies to slow population growth. The policy formation process--detailed here for 4 countries (Zambia, Nigeria, Zaire, and Liberia)--is ponderous and beset with political and bureaucratic pitfalls, However, policy shifts in more and more countries combined with evidence of increased contraceptive use and fertility downturns in a few countries give some hope that the region's extraordinary population growth may have peaked and will start a descent. Whatever the case, the decade of the 1990s will be crucial for the future of sub-Saharan Africa.     

Reconciling Work, Family and Child Outcomes: What Implications for Family Support Policies?

This paper discusses the potential of family policies to reconcile the multiple objectives that they are expected to serve, over and above their role in offsetting the economic cost of children. We start by emphasizing the need to consider the multiple challenges that family policies in European Union??and/or OECD??countries have to address through a broadening of the standard economic approach to the cost of children. Policies indeed aim to reduce the ??direct?? monetary cost of raising children, but they also aim to minimise the indirect cost arising from the incidence of children on the parents?? work-life balance and on the aggregate level of employment. Moreover, motives for policy intervention such as concerns about child development, gender equity or aggregate fertility levels are not fully captured by cost measurements. We thus analyse how, and to what extent, family policies can successfully reconcile these multidimensional objectives. We offer a holistic approach, pointing out that a coherent family policy mix supporting working parents with preschool children is the only way to reconcile or limit the conflicts between work, family and child outcomes. Three main dichotomies are identified to explain cross-country differences in family policy packages: the emphasis on poverty alleviation; the supposed antagonism between fertility and female employment; and the potential conflict between this latter and child development. Ways to reconcile these objectives and to improve the effectiveness and efficiency of family policies are further discussed.     

New strategies for slowing population growth

Growth of world population over the next 100 years, until the year 2100, will produce an estimated 11.5 billion people. The past focus on reducing rapid population growth exclusively through family planning has not been sufficient. Population policy needs to be broadened to include health care, education, and poverty reduction. The population policy recommendations of Population Council Vice-President John Bongaarts and Senior Associate Judith Bruce were to reduce unwanted pregnancies by expanding services that promote reproductive choice and better health, to reduce the demand for large families by creating favorable conditions for small families, and to invest in adolescents. The Population Council 1994 publication "Population Growth and Our Caring Capacity" outlined these issues. Another similar article by John Bongaarts appeared in the journal "Science" in 1994. In developing countries, excluding China, about 25% of all births are unwanted; 25 million abortions are performed for unwanted pregnancies. The provision of comprehensive family planning programs will go a long way toward achieving a reduction in unwanted pregnancies. In addition, changes are needed in male control over female sexuality and fertility and in cultural beliefs that are obstacles to use of contraception. Stabilization of population at 2 children per family will not occur unless there is a desire for small families. In most less developed countries, large family sizes are preferred. Governments have an opportunity to adopt policies that reduce economic and social risks of having small families. This can be accomplished through the widespread education of children, a reduction in infant and child mortality, improvement in the economic and social and legal status of women, and provision of equitable gender relations in marriage and child rearing. The rights of children to be wanted, planned, and adequately cared for need to be supported. These aforementioned measures will help to reduce fertility, provide support for small families, and justify investment in social development. Population momentum will keep population growing for some time even with replacement level fertility. Investment in adolescents through enhancement of self-esteem and promotion of later childbearing can lengthen the span between generations and slow population momentum. Population policies will be more effective when human rights are protected.     

Pronatalist population policies in some Western European countries

This article is restricted to a comparison of four Western European countries: France, the Federal Republic of Germany, the Netherlands and the United Kingdom. As the crude birthrates and total period fertility rates of these countries indicate, a stabilization of fertility has set in in France, the Netherlands and the United Kingdom. Official government attitudes towards these developments differ greatly, with France having clear pronatalist policy measures, the German Federal Government having only family policy measures, but some member states going further with a policy of family foundation loans. In the Netherlands and the United Kingdom, no official population policy exists, apart from a certain reluctance to accept more foreign immigrants. It must be concluded that the only common characteristic of population policies in the four countries is that they try to enable women to work and care for a family at the same time. The future effect of pronatalist population policy measures is still highly in doubt.This article was originally presented as a paper to the Annual Meeting of the Population Association of America, Washington DC, March 28, 1981.     

经济增长、生育政策与生育率——基于跨国面板数据的实证研究

文章基于不同发展水平、采取不同生育政策分布在不同地区的十个国家1970—2009年的面板数据对经济增长、生育政策与生育率之间的关系进行实证分析,对近年来部分学者提出的经济增长与生育率之间的U形关系,采取选择不同样本、加入政策变量和其他与生育率相关的重要经济指标如妇女的教育程度、城镇化率、工业化率等进行再检验,结果支持该假说,经济增长在经济发展程度整体较低的阶段与生育率呈现较高的负相关,但当经济增长达到一定程度时,收入效应取代替代效应对生育率起主要推动作用,如果再辅之以相关的激励政策和措施,生育率会出现轻微的反弹。因此,对于已采取生育控制政策的国家,可以结合经济社会发展指标权衡利弊,适时调整政策。     

Immigrants’ economic performance across Europe – does immigration policy matter?

Drawing on panel data from the European Community Household Panel (ECHP), the British Household Panel Survey (BHPS) and the German Socio-Economic Panel Study (SOEP), we compare the economic performance of immigrants to Great Britain, West Germany, Denmark, Luxembourg, Ireland, Italy, Spain and Austria to that of the respective indigenous population. The unit of analysis is the individual in the household context. This allows us to define immigrants state of integration into the host society at the family level taking into account issues such as immigrant/native intermarriage. Economic performance is measured in terms of the country-specific pre-government income position and change in the relative income position due to redistribution processes within the respective tax and social security systems. Our work is based on the premise that countries may be categorized – similarly to existing categorizations based on the type of welfare regime – according to the nature of their immigration policy. From an economic point of view, a successful and integrative immigration policy should result – at least when controlling for background characteristics such as education – in a non-significant differential between the economic performance of immigrants and that of the indigenous population. At first glance, our results indicate that this ideal is not attained in all of the countries analysed, particularly not in Germany and Denmark, where the economic performance of immigrants is much lower than that of the indigenous population. However, results from GLS random-effects models show that immigrants to these countries improve their economic situation rapidly with increasing duration of stay in the host country. This implies that these countries also do fairly well in fostering in the economic integration of immigrants. Our empirical results further reveal that the substantial cross-country differences in the immigrant/native-born performance differential persist even when controlling in detail for socioeconomic characteristics of the household and for indicators of the state of the immigrants integration, such as years since migration and immigrant/native intermarriage. This suggests that not only the conditions of entry to a country impact on immigrants economic performance, but also country-specific institutional aspects such as restrictions on access to the labour market and parts of the social security system that are related to citizenship or immigrant status. There still is a great deal of heterogeneity across EU member states in this respect. This should be taken into account when working towards the harmonization of national EU immigration policies.This paper benefited substantially from discussions at the EEA 2003 Conference in Stockholm, Sweden, and the EPUNet 2003 Conference in Colchester, UK. We also acknowledge very helpful comments resulting from the reviewing process     

Toward a national population policy

Canada has notexplicit national population policy although various policies do have an effect on the size, rate of growth, distribution, and composition of the nation's population. Traditionally, Canada has been pronoatalist, particularly favoring immigration. In response to the 1974 Bucharest World Population Conference, the Canadian government solicited public testimony regarding a population policy for the nation. Environmentalists urged population limitation with a view to maintaining the ecosystem. Social justice and reallocation of resources were urged by an 2nd group. The quality of life argument was used by both proponents and opponents of population limitation. Canada has increased its world assistance for economic and population activities. With 1 of the highest growth rates of the developed countries, (in 1976-1977, 1.3% vs. .8% for the U.S. and .4% for France), Canada needs to propound a slow growth ethic. With future fertility at replacement level, Canada will look to immigration for population input.     

From Bucharest to Mexico: a decade of changing perceptions

The 2nd International Conference on Population held in Mexico City in 1984 had 3 main objectives: 1) to adopt the plan to changing demographic situations, 2) to enlarge the plan's scope so it can consider new views that have emerged since Bucharest, and 3) to reinforce the plan's operational aspects so that the plan can be applied more effectively. The Mexico conference had significant differences with the Bucharest gathering: 1) greater participation of developing countries, 2) clarification of the role of population and family planning in development, and 3) recognition of the status of women in development. Governments of many developing countries argue that they cannot wait for their countries to modernize sufficiently enough to stabilize their population levels. Participants in the Mexico conference agreed that family planning programs have been successful in reducing fertility at relatively low cost. The goal of a development-oriented population policy is to improve the people's standard of living by lowering fertility rates, improving health conditions and life expectancy, improving population distribution, and adopting sound economic policies. The overall objective of population policy should not be confined only to growth, distribution, and other demographic aspects; it is imperative that human life and human dignity be upheld.     

Policy options when population growth slows: The case of Thailand

Thailand reached replacement-level fertility almost a decade ago, although there has been a lag in measuring and recognising the implications of this benchmark event. Fertility could well sink still lower. The momentum of population growth will ensure substantial further increase before the population levels off, but this is not true in all regions. For example, earlier and faster fertility decline in the North, and net outmigration, have led to a situation where some geographical and age segments of the North's population are decreasing. Population policy in Thailand since 1970 has had two major planks: to reduce fertility through an active family planning program, and to distribute population away from the large primate city of Bangkok. The paper discusses whether these policies may need to be modified as a result of the major demographic and socio economic changes that have been taking place. It also discusses the limits to population policy in terms of the likely efficacy of various measures that could be adopted, based on both an assessment of the Thailand situation and the experience of other low-fertility countries.     

试论未来中国计划生育工作的转变

未来中国的计划生育应该发生如下转变 :(1)计划生育政策的理论依据将从适度人口论向可持续发展理论转变 ;(2 )人口控制的重点将从以人口数量控制为主向结构平衡、素质优先转变 ;(3)政策执行模式从行政经济强制模式向法律规范、经济利益导向模式转变 ;(4)政策执行机构将从计划生育委员会改革为人口政策委员会 ;(5 )计划生育政策与其它公共政策的协调将更加有效。     

Strengths and Weaknesses of Canadian Express Entry System: Experts’ Perceptions

This article offers an analysis of the first four years of functioning of Express Entry, a new on-line application management system to select skilled entrants for Canada's key economic immigration programs leading to permanent residence. Based on interviews with 20 experts on Canadian immigration policies, we identified a number of strengths and weaknesses of the Canadian Express Entry system related to four areas: immigration policy making, processing of applications, selection of immigrants, and retention of immigrants. Since these areas are integral parts of immigration policies in all countries and Canada is a long-term leader in the design of points-based systems for selection of skilled immigrants, we also specify several lessons from the Canadian experience with the Express Entry system for other countries seeking to attract skilled immigrants.     

Evaluating public policy responses to the economic burden of population ageing with application to Australia

This paper reviews the issues in evaluating public policy interventions that are designed to address the economic burden of population ageing. It then briefly reviews the main public policy options with application to Australia. The economic burden of ageing is defined as the burden on national economic well-being over time and the extent to which this burden is shared between the public and private sectors. A key policy issue is the extent to which the economic burden of ageing should be spread out over present and future generations. This depends on how we value the economic well-being of future generations relative to our own, future projections of economic growth, and the rate at which our subjective sense of well-being improves with our living standards. The paper discusses policies to boost the labour force participation rates of older workers, measures to boost fertility and immigration policy. Also discussed are several policies to shift the burden of ageing from the public to private sectors: the establishment of government financial funds such as the Future Fund, superannuation policy, and health and aged care policy.     

Theories and practical problems of population facing four modernizations being conscientiously studied]

The Second National Symposium on Population Theory focused on the problems of population and their solution associated with the 4 modernizations. The following issues discussed by 7 Sumposium panels are summarized: population development theory in the socialist society; population problems in China and their solution; population policies and legislation relating to population control; population distribution and migration; population estimation and population planning; and population research and the establishment of population theory. Discussants agreed that the comprehensive investigation of population principle in a socialist society is of great importance to decisionmaking in the area of China's population development policy. Several different issues arose concerning the content and critical areas in the development of a socialist population principle. More than 1 principle is operating in socialist population theory, but the most important is the principle of population reproduction. The point was made that in addition to the population principle specific to individual society, there exists principles that are common to every society. The consensus was that population growth is associated with all the economical, political, and idelogical developments and that among these the association between population growth and economic development is the most significant. The current major population problem in China was identified as maladjustment between population growth and economic development. This maladjustment has led to problems in the areas of education, employment, transportation, and housing. The fundamental solution was identified as improving economical development to increase the material reproduction and controlling the population reproduction. In addition to birth control policies, it was suggested that population policies should include the geographical distribution and migration of the population. There was wide support for the proposal to legislate population control. It was agreed that such legislation would promote the progress of population control and assure its success. Discussion of the problems of population distribution and migration concentrated on the population problems of the urban area and minority ethnic groups. It was suggested that a nationwide census be conducted in population planning, population legislation, and population theory investigation. In order to establish the socialist population theory, it is essential to clarify the subjects, scopes, and methods of population research.