Inference of Seasonal Long‐memory Time Series with Measurement Error

We consider the Whittle likelihood estimation of seasonal autoregressive fractionally integrated moving‐average models in the presence of an additional measurement error and show that the spectral maximum Whittle likelihood estimator is asymptotically normal. We illustrate by simulation that ignoring measurement errors may result in incorrect inference. Hence, it is pertinent to test for the presence of measurement errors, which we do by developing a likelihood ratio (LR) test within the framework of Whittle likelihood. We derive the non‐standard asymptotic null distribution of this LR test and the limiting distribution of LR test under a sequence of local alternatives. Because in practice, we do not know the order of the seasonal autoregressive fractionally integrated moving‐average model, we consider three modifications of the LR test that takes model uncertainty into account. We study the finite sample properties of the size and the power of the LR test and its modifications. The efficacy of the proposed approach is illustrated by a real‐life example.     

Estimators based on ranks for arma models

In this paper we introduce a new family of robust estimators for ARMA models. These estimators are defined by replacing the residual sample autocovariances in the least squares equations by autocovariances based on ranks. The asymptotic normality of the proposed estimators is provided. The efficiency and robustness properties of these estimators are studied. An adequate choice of the score functions gives estimators which have high efficiency under normality and robustness in the presence of outliers. The score functions can also be chosen so that the resulting estimators are asymptotically as efficient as the maximum likelihood estimators for a given distribution.     

Efficient estimation and model selection in large graphical models

We develop a computationally efficient method to determine the interaction structure in a multidimensional binary sample. We use an interaction model based on orthogonal functions, and give a result on independence properties in this model. Using this result we develop an efficient approximation algorithm for estimating the parameters in a given undirected model. To find the best model, we use a heuristic search algorithm in which the structure is determined incrementally. We also give an algorithm for reconstructing the causal directions, if such exist. We demonstrate that together these algorithms are capable of discovering almost all of the true structure for a problem with 121 variables, including many of the directions.     

Partial Linear Models for Longitudinal Data Based on Quadratic Inference Functions

In this paper, we consider improved estimating equations for semiparametric partial linear models (PLM) for longitudinal data, or clustered data in general. We approximate the non‐parametric function in the PLM by a regression spline, and utilize quadratic inference functions (QIF) in the estimating equations to achieve a more efficient estimation of the parametric part in the model, even when the correlation structure is misspecified. Moreover, we construct a test which is an analogue to the likelihood ratio inference function for inferring the parametric component in the model. The proposed methods perform well in simulation studies and real data analysis conducted in this paper.     

Score estimation in the monotone single‐index model

We consider estimation in the single‐index model where the link function is monotone. For this model, a profile least‐squares estimator has been proposed to estimate the unknown link function and index. Although it is natural to propose this procedure, it is still unknown whether it produces index estimates that converge at the parametric rate. We show that this holds if we solve a score equation corresponding to this least‐squares problem. Using a Lagrangian formulation, we show how one can solve this score equation without any reparametrization. This makes it easy to solve the score equations in high dimensions. We also compare our method with the effective dimension reduction and the penalized least‐squares estimator methods, both available on CRAN as R packages, and compare with link‐free methods, where the covariates are elliptically symmetric.     

Testing Nowcast Monotonicity with Estimated Factors

This article proposes a test to determine whether “big data” nowcasting methods, which have become an important tool to many public and private institutions, are monotonically improving as new information becomes available. The test is the first to formalize existing evaluation procedures from the nowcasting literature. We place particular emphasis on models involving estimated factors, since factor-based methods are a leading case in the high-dimensional empirical nowcasting literature, although our test is still applicable to small-dimensional set-ups like bridge equations and MIDAS models. Our approach extends a recent methodology for testing many moment inequalities to the case of nowcast monotonicity testing, which allows the number of inequalities to grow with the sample size. We provide results showing the conditions under which both parameter estimation error and factor estimation error can be accommodated in this high-dimensional setting when using the pseudo out-of-sample approach. The finite sample performance of our test is illustrated using a wide range of Monte Carlo simulations, and we conclude with an empirical application of nowcasting U.S. real gross domestic product (GDP) growth and five GDP sub-components. Our test results confirm monotonicity for all but one sub-component (government spending), suggesting that the factor-augmented model may be misspecified for this GDP constituent. Supplementary materials for this article are available online.     

Looking for max-semistability: A new test for the extreme value condition

To test the extreme value condition, Cramér-Von Mises type tests were recently proposed by Drees et al. (2006) and Dietrich et al. (2002). Hüsler and Li (2006) presented a simulation study on the behavior of these tests and verified that they are not robust for models in the domain of attraction of a max-semistable distribution function. In this work we develop a test statistic that distinguishes quite well distribution functions which belong to a max-stable domain of attraction from those in a max-semistable one. The limit law is deduced and the results from a numerical simulation study are presented.     

Augmented-limited regression models with an application to the study of the risk perceived using continuous scales

Studies of risk perceived using continuous scales of [0,100] were recently introduced in psychometrics, which can be transformed to the unit interval, but the presence of zeros or ones are commonly observed. Motivated by this, we introduce a full inferential set of tools that allows for augmented and limited data modeling. We considered parameter estimation, residual analysis, influence diagnostic and model selection for zero-and/or-one augmented beta rectangular (ZOABR) regression models and their particular nested models, which is based on a new parameterization of the beta rectangular distribution. Different from other alternatives, we performed maximum-likelihood estimation using a combination of the EM algorithm (for the continuous part) and Fisher scoring algorithm (for the discrete part). Also, we perform an additional step, by considering other link functions, besides the usual logistic link, for modeling the response mean. By considering randomized quantile residuals, (local) influence diagnostics and model selection tools, we identified that the ZOABR regression model is the best one. We also conducted extensive simulations studies, which indicate that all developed tools work properly. Finally, we discuss the use of this type of models to treat psychometric data. It is worthwhile to mention that applications of the developed methods go beyond to Psychometric data. Indeed, they can be useful when the response variable in bounded, including or not the respective limits.     

Testing transition probability matrix of a multi-state model with censored data

In this paper, we develop procedures to test hypotheses concerning transition probability matrices arising from certain nonhomogeneous Markov processes. It is assumed that the data consist of sample paths, some of which are observed until a certain terminal state, and the other paths are censored. Problems of this type arise in the context of multi-state models relevant to Health Related Quality of Life (HRQoL) and Competing Risks. The test statistic is based on the estimator for the associated intensity matrix. We show that the asymptotic null distribution of the proposed statistic is Gaussian, and demonstrate how the procedure can be adopted for HRQoL studies and competing risks model using real data sets. Finally, we establish that the test statistic for the HRQoL has greatest local asymptotic power against a sequence of proportional hazards alternatives converging to the null hypothesis.     

Model averaging procedure for varying-coefficient partially linear models with missing responses

This paper is concerned with model averaging procedure for varying-coefficient partially linear models with missing responses. The profile least-squares estimation process and inverse probability weighted method are employed to estimate regression coefficients of the partially restricted models, in which the propensity score is estimated by the covariate balancing propensity score method. The estimators of the linear parameters are shown to be asymptotically normal. Then we develop the focused information criterion, formulate the frequentist model averaging estimators and construct the corresponding confidence intervals. Some simulation studies are conducted to examine the finite sample performance of the proposed methods. We find that the covariate balancing propensity score improves the performance of the inverse probability weighted estimator. We also demonstrate the superiority of the proposed model averaging estimators over those of existing strategies in terms of mean squared error and coverage probability. Finally, our approach is further applied to a real data example.     

Goodness-of-fit tests for general linear models with covariates missed at random

In this paper, we consider a model checking problem for general linear models with randomly missing covariates. Two types of score type tests with inverse probability weight, which is estimated by parameter and nonparameter methods respectively, are proposed to this goodness of fit problem. The asymptotic properties of the test statistics are developed under the null and local alternative hypothesis. Simulation study is carried out to present the performance of the sizes and powers of the tests. We illustrate the proposed method with a data set on monozygotic twins.     

Building adaptive estimating equations when inverse of covariance estimation is difficult

Summary. To construct an optimal estimating function by weighting a set of score functions, we must either know or estimate consistently the covariance matrix for the individual scores. In problems with high dimensional correlated data the estimated covariance matrix could be unreliable. The smallest eigenvalues of the covariance matrix will be the most important for weighting the estimating equations, but in high dimensions these will be poorly determined. Generalized estimating equations introduced the idea of a working correlation to minimize such problems. However, it can be difficult to specify the working correlation model correctly. We develop an adaptive estimating equation method which requires no working correlation assumptions. This methodology relies on finding a reliable approximation to the inverse of the variance matrix in the quasi-likelihood equations. We apply a multivariate generalization of the conjugate gradient method to find estimating equations that preserve the information well at fixed low dimensions. This approach is particularly useful when the estimator of the covariance matrix is singular or close to singular, or impossible to invert owing to its large size.     

Finite-sample Resampling-based Combined Hypothesis Tests,with Applications to Serial Correlation and Predictability

This article suggests Monte Carlo multiple test procedures which are provably valid in finite samples. These include combination methods originally proposed for independent statistics and further improvements which formalize statistical practice. We also adopt the Monte Carlo test method to noncontinuous combined statistics. The methods suggested are applied to test serial dependence and predictability. In particular, we introduce and analyze new procedures that account for endogenous lag selection. A simulation study illustrates the properties of the proposed methods. Results show that concrete and nonspurious power gains (over standard combination methods) can be achieved through the combined Monte Carlo test approach, and confirm arguments in favor of variance-ratio type criteria.     

Goodness-of-Fit for Longitudinal Count Data with Overdispersion

In this article, we develop a method for checking the estimation equations, which is for joint estimation of the regression parameters and the overdispersion parameters, based on one dimension projected covariate. This method is different from the general testing methods in that our proposed method can be applied to high-dimensional response while the classical testing methods can not be extended to high dimension problem simply to construct a powerful test. Furthermore, the properties of the test statistics are investigated and Nonparametric Monte Carlo Test (NMCT) is suggested to determine the critical values of the test statistics under null hypothesis.     

Modified likelihood ratio tests in heteroskedastic multivariate regression models with measurement error

In this paper, we develop modified versions of the likelihood ratio test for multivariate heteroskedastic errors-in-variables regression models. The error terms are allowed to follow a multivariate distribution in the elliptical class of distributions, which has the normal distribution as a special case. We derive the Skovgaard-adjusted likelihood ratio statistics, which follow a chi-squared distribution with a high degree of accuracy. We conduct a simulation study and show that the proposed tests display superior finite sample behaviour as compared to the standard likelihood ratio test. We illustrate the usefulness of our results in applied settings using a data set from the WHO MONICA Project on cardiovascular disease.     

Testing for departures from nominal dispersion in generalized nonlinear models with varying dispersion and/or additive random effects

This paper discusses the tests for departures from nominal dispersion in the framework of generalized nonlinear models with varying dispersion and/or additive random effects. We consider two classes of exponential family distributions. The first is discrete exponential family distributions, such as Poisson, binomial, and negative binomial distributions. The second is continuous exponential family distributions, such as normal, gamma, and inverse Gaussian distributions. Correspondingly, we develop a unifying approach and propose several tests for testing for departures from nominal dispersion in two classes of generalized nonlinear models. The score test statistics are constructed and expressed in simple, easy to use, matrix formulas, so that the tests can easily be implemented using existing statistical software. The properties of test statistics are investigated through Monte Carlo simulations.     

Inference for current leukemia free survival

Donor lymphocyte infusion (DLI) for patients who relapse following an allogeneic stem cell transplant has proved remarkably durable. Because of the potential for second remissions with DLI, the current leukemia free survival (CLFS), which is the probability that a patient has not failed the entire course of the treatment, is becoming of interest to clinical investigators. Based on either a multistate Markov model or a linear combination of Kaplan–Meier estimators, we explore regression models for the CLFS. We focus on the two sample problem and we develop confidence bands for the CLFS or for differences in CLFS as well as a Kolmogorov type hypothesis test using a re-sampling technique. We also examine the use of pseudo-values to make inference on the direct effects of covariates on the CLFS function and we develop a score test for the equality of two CLFS. We illustrate these inference methods on a bone marrow transplant dataset.     

A Model Validation Procedure when Covariate Data are Missing at Random

Abstract. In the presence of missing covariates, standard model validation procedures may result in misleading conclusions. By building generalized score statistics on augmented inverse probability weighted complete‐case estimating equations, we develop a new model validation procedure to assess the adequacy of a prescribed analysis model when covariate data are missing at random. The asymptotic distribution and local alternative efficiency for the test are investigated. Under certain conditions, our approach provides not only valid but also asymptotically optimal results. A simulation study for both linear and logistic regression illustrates the applicability and finite sample performance of the methodology. Our method is also employed to analyse a coronary artery disease diagnostic dataset.     

Diagnostics on nonlinear model with scale mixtures of skew-normal and first-order autoregressive errors

In this work, we develop some diagnostics for nonlinear regression model with scale mixtures of skew-normal (SMSN) and first-order autoregressive errors. The SMSN distribution class covers symmetric as well as asymmetric and heavy-tailed distributions, which offers a more flexible framework for modelling. Maximum-likelihood (ML) estimates are computed via an expectation–maximization-type algorithm. Local influence diagnostics and score test for the correlation are also derived. The performances of the ML estimates and the test statistic are investigated through Monte Carlo simulations. Finally, a real data set is used to illustrate our diagnostic methods.     

Testing overdispersion in the zero-inflated Poisson model

The zero-inflated negative binomial (ZINB) model is used to account for commonly occurring overdispersion detected in data that are initially analyzed under the zero-inflated Poisson (ZIP) model. Tests for overdispersion (Wald test, likelihood ratio test [LRT], and score test) based on ZINB model for use in ZIP regression models have been developed. Due to similarity to the ZINB model, we consider the zero-inflated generalized Poisson (ZIGP) model as an alternate model for overdispersed zero-inflated count data. The score test has an advantage over the LRT and the Wald test in that the score test only requires that the parameter of interest be estimated under the null hypothesis. This paper proposes score tests for overdispersion based on the ZIGP model and illustrates that the derived score statistics are exactly the same as the score statistics under the ZINB model. A simulation study indicates the proposed score statistics are preferred to other tests for higher empirical power. In practice, based on the approximate mean–variance relationship in the data, the ZINB or ZIGP model can be considered, and a formal score test based on asymptotic standard normal distribution can be employed for assessing overdispersion in the ZIP model. We provide an example to illustrate the procedures for data analysis.