On the Measurement of Job Risk in Hedonic Wage Models

We examine the incidence, form, and research consequences of measurement error in measures of fatal injury risk in U.S. workplaces using both Bureau of Labor Statistics and National Intitute of Occupational Safety and Health data. Of the various measures examined the NIOSH industry risk measure produces implicit value of life estimates most in line with both economic theory and the mode result for the existing literature. Because we find non-classical measurement error that differs across risk measures and is not independent of other regressors, innovative statistical procedures need be applied to obtain statistically improved estimates of wage-fatality risk tradeoffs.     

主观变量解释主观变量:方法论辨析

社会学经验研究经常会需要处理诸如态度、感受、偏好这样的主观变量，无论从理论上还是方法上，对特定主观变量的理解往往会涉及另外一个主观变量。尽管如此，在具体的研究实践中，社会学者往往对“主观解释主观”的分析进路持有相当程度的保留态度，从而尽可能地采用客观变量来解释主观变量，或者探究主观变量对于客观变量的影响。“主观解释主观”的分析进路究竟有什么方法论上的“缺陷”?更为重要的是，采用什么手段可以尽可能避免这些“缺陷”以拓宽研究者的经验解释能力?这些问题到目前为止都还缺乏系统研究。在此背景下，本文考察了“主观解释主观”的分析进路所存在的混淆偏误问题，并从理论论辩、变量测量和数据分析三个方面讨论了一系列的应对策略。针对每一个应对策略，本文展示了经验实例，并对该策略的优缺点和适用情况进行了剖析和对比。此外，本文也具体分析了诸如因果关系方向、判断混淆偏误的敏感性检验、测量误差等未尽议题。本文希望通过这些讨论能增强社会学解释路径的多样性，促进社会学与其他学科（例如心理学、政治学等）的交流与互鉴。     

The Utility of Allport's Conditions of Intergroup Contact for Predicting Perceptions of Improved Racial Attitudes and Beliefs

We test the predictive power of perception as it relates to Allport's (1954/1979) classic articulation of the conditions of contact conducive to reducing intergroup prejudice and increasing tolerance. After summarizing theories of prejudice and models of prejudice reduction, as well as recently published reviews of evidence relating to the Contact Hypothesis, we present results of an evaluation of a prejudice reduction program that trains and places college student facilitators in middle and high school classrooms to lead discussions about race. We show that a composite of five classroom climate conditions that the Contact Hypothesis suggests are conducive to prejudice reduction predicts teachers' and college student facilitators' perceptions of change in three aspects of middle and high school student racial attitudes. Students' perceptions of the school interracial climate are modestly predictive of their changes in these three aspects of racial attitudes. However, teacher and facilitator estimates of student outcomes are uncorrelated with actual student outcomes. Implications of these results for prejudice reduction theory and practice are discussed.     

Minimizing Social Desirability Bias in Measuring Sensitive Topics: The Use of Forgiving Language in Item Development

Abstract

Social science research has long been concerned with attitudes, beliefs, and behaviors that are potentially objectionable, immoral, or illegal. These types of topics include, for example, racism, ableism, cheating, and stealing, among others. Referred to as “sensitive topics,” their investigation usually involves questions that require respondents to admit to attitudes, beliefs, and behaviors that violate social norms, making their assessment susceptible to error due to social desirability bias. This article describes an empirical investigation of an approach to minimize this bias, the use of “forgiving language” in survey item development and the effect on item variability. Using secondary data initially collected as part of a measurement development study of mental health providers’ stigmatization of service users, 15 pairs of similar, thematically targeted items, varying with respect to wording approach were tested using a purposive sample of mental health providers (N?=?220). Findings indicate that items crafted in a forgiving manner were not significantly influenced by social desirability bias, in contrast to items developed in more traditional language. Additionally, forgiving language-items produced higher levels of agreement, on average, when compared to those written in more traditional language. More research is indicated, including systematic variation of wording approaches, but these results seem promising.     

The value of changes in life expectancy

Valuation formulas for age-specific mortality risks are derived from life-cycle allocation theory under uncertainty and related to empirical estimates of the value of life. A change in an age-specific mortality risk affects all subsequent survivor functions and reallocates consumption and labor supply over the entire life cycle. The value of eliminating a risk to life at a specific age is the expected present value of consumer surplus from that age forward. Approximate numerical extrapolations from cross-section estimates imply that values decrease rapidly in current age and in the distance between current age and age at risk.     

Are risk preferences stable? Comparing an experimental measure with a validated survey-based measure

We examine the stability of risk preference within subjects by comparing measures obtained from two elicitation methods, an economics experiment with real monetary rewards and a survey with questions on hypothetical gambles. The survey questions have been validated by numerous empirical studies of investment, insurance demand, smoking and alcohol use, and recent studies have shown the experimental measure is associated with several real-world risky behaviors. For the majority of subjects, we find that risk preferences are not stable across elicitation methods. In interval regression models subjects’ risk preference classifications from survey questions on job-based gambles are not associated with risk preference estimates from the experiment. However, we find that risk classifications from inheritance-based gambles are significantly associated with the experimental measure. We identify some subjects for whom risk preference estimates are more strongly correlated across elicitation methods, suggesting that unobserved subject traits like comprehension or effort influence risk preference stability.     

Evaluation of international corruption indexes: Should we believe them or not?

In this paper, we employ, and test the reliability and validity, of multiple corruption related datasets such as the Corruption Perceptions Index of Transparency International, the Control of Corruption Index of the World Bank, the International Country Risk Guide of PRS, the World Value Survey, the Bribe Payers Index, and the International Crime Victimization Survey. We find evidence that the reliability of international corruption indexes has improved over the years. However, a number of shortcomings – such as the risk of selection bias, longitudinal sensitivity, and measurement errors that are inherent in composite indexes – are commonly observed. These problems are critical enough to affect the results of empirical analysis, as we illustrate using linear models. Therefore, we conclude that researchers should pay more attention towards minimizing the impact of measurement error through rigorous data screening and robustness tests using multiple data sources and methods. A thorough and systematic evaluation of the reliability and validity of international corruption indexes is essential to increase their usefulness.     

The influence of probabilities on the response mode bias in utility elicitation

The response mode bias, in which subjects exhibit different risk attitudes when assessing certainty equivalents versus indifference probabilities, is a well-known phenomenon in the assessment of utility functions. In this empirical study, we develop and apply a cardinal measure of risk attitudes to analyze not only the existence, but also the strength of this phenomenon. Since probability levels involved in decision problems are already known to have a strong impact on behavior, we use this approach to study the impact of probabilities on the extent of the response mode bias. We find that the direction in which probabilities influence measured risk aversion is the opposite in the certainty equivalence (CE) method versus in the probability equivalence (PE) method. Utilizing the CE elicitation approach leads to an increase of risk seeking for gambles involving high probabilities. For the PE method, subjects tend to behave risk averse with gambles of high probabilities. This behavior is reversed in the gain domain. This “tailwhip” effect is consistently replicated in several experiments, involving both loss and gain domains of lotteries.     

Efficiency of the Greek banking system in view of the EMU: a heteroscedastic stochastic frontier approach

The paper estimates empirically cost efficiency of the Greek banking system for the period 1993–1998. The beginning of the examination period coincides with the acceleration of liberalization and deregulation of the Greek financial system, in view of the country joining the EMU. The study uses a multi-input, multi-output technology and adopts a heteroscedastic frontier model instead of a commonly used homoscedastic one to measure cost efficiency in the banking system. The empirical results show that larger banks are less efficient than smaller ones. Also, it is found that economic performance, bank loans and investments are positive related to the cost efficiency of the Greek commercial banking sector.     

Stability of risk preference measures: results from a field experiment on French farmers

We compare two different elicitation methods for measuring risk attitudes on a sample of French farmers. We consider the lottery tasks initially proposed by Holt and Laury (Econ Rev 92:1644?C1655, 2002) and by Eckel and Grossman (Evol Hum Behav 23:281?C295, 2002; J Econ Behav Org 68:1?C7, 2008). The main empirical result from this within-subject study is that risk preference measures are affected by the type of mechanism used. We first show that this risk preference instability can be related to non-expected utility preferences of farmers. Using a risk-taking psychometric questionnaire, we then demonstrate that risk preferences of farmers are context-dependent. This may be another explanation of the observed risk preference instability.     

Validating a Comprehensive Model of Environmental Concern Cross‐Nationally: A U.S.‐Canadian Comparison*

Objective. The dimensionality of “environmental concern” remains ambiguous despite decades of research on environmental attitudes and beliefs. We attempt to provide insight into this issue by using the belief systems perspective and confirmatory factor analysis (CFA) to test a comprehensive conceptualization of environmental concern. Methods. The study employs a comparative design by using national probability samples of citizens from Canada and the United States, and a comprehensive conceptualization model to maximize content validity. We utilize CFA and structural equation modeling techniques to avoid well‐known measurement error problems in survey research. Results. Eight key facets of environmental concern have moderate to high factor loadings on one underlying construct, and all but perception of community problems and national problems have high loadings. Further analyses provide construct validation for our measurement model. Conclusion. Our results suggest that even among the general public, attitudes toward environmental issues are relatively well organized into a broad and coherent sense of “concern for the environment.” The similarity in the U.S. and Canadian results increases our faith in the validity of our comprehensive conceptualization of environmental concern, as well as the utility of the belief systems perspective and CFA modeling for future studies of environmental attitudes and beliefs.     

Developmental differences in baserate estimates of social behaviors and attitudes

This study examined the development of baserate estimation skills for everyday social events and attitudes. Subjects in grades one, three, and six responded to questions concerning their own rates of behavior and attitudes, and their estimates of baserates of behaviors and attitudes for their classmates. The findings indicate a general increase in accuracy for the estimation of baserates throughout the elementary school years. In addition, younger subjects were less likely to make similar estimates for themselves and their classmates than were older respondents. Developmental changes in estimation accuracy are discussed in relation to task content, use of the response scale, correspondence between self-reports and estimates, and sample variability.     

Public Opinion against Markets? Attitudes towards Market Distribution of Social Services – A Comparison of 17 Countries

This article studies how citizens view the appropriateness of market criteria for allocating services commonly associated with social citizenship rights and welfare state responsibility. The article focuses specifically on a potential role for the market in the provision of social services. The relationship between welfare policy institutions, socio‐economic class and attitudes is explored by comparing attitudes across 17 countries of the Organisation for Economic Co‐operation and Development, using multilevel modelling and data from the 2009 International Social Survey Programme. Results show that public support for market distribution of services is relatively weak in most countries, a result suggesting that public opinion is unlikely to pose a driving force within ongoing processes of welfare marketization. Still, attitudes are found to vary a lot across countries in tandem with between‐country variation in welfare policy design. First, aggregate public support for market distribution of services is stronger in countries with more private spending on services. Second, class differences in attitudes are larger in countries with more extensive state‐led delivery of services. Together, these results point to the operation of normative feedback‐effects flowing from existing welfare policy arrangements. The theoretical arguments and the empirical results presented in this article suggest that future research exploring the relationship between welfare policy and public opinion from a country‐comparative perspective is well advised to place greater focus on the market institutions that, to varying extents in different countries, act as complements to the state in the administration of social welfare.     

Case Management in the Law Office

Abstract

This study examines the assumption that including Black-Americans with larger samples of White-Americans produce an accurate picture of the predictors of nursing home use by Black-Americans. Using the Longitudinal Study of Aging (1984-1990), Cox proportional hazard models are estimated for Black-Americans and White-Americans. This study finds that in fact the models for Black-Americans are not the same as for White-Americans. For Black-Americans, living below the poverty line, problems of functional status, age, and not having the potential for care for a few weeks from relatives (in or out of the home) are predictive of a higher risk of nursing home use while, for White-Americans, age, lower versus higher income, being female versus male, poor evaluation of self health care, poor functional status, lower levels of community activity, and living alone compared to living with a spouse or children were predictive of a higher risk of nursing home admission. The implications for policy and case management practice are discussed regarding these findings.     

On the Conditional Value-at-Risk probability-dependent utility function

The Expected Shortfall or Conditional Value-at-Risk (CVaR) has been playing the role of main risk measure in the recent years and paving the way for an enormous number of applications in risk management due to its very intuitive form and important coherence properties. This work aims to explore this measure as a probability-dependent utility functional, introducing an alternative view point for its Choquet Expected Utility representation. Within this point of view, its main preference properties will be characterized and its utility representation provided through local utilities with an explicit dependence on the assessed revenue’s distribution (quantile) function. Then, an intuitive interpretation for the related probability dependence and the piecewise form of such utility will be introduced on an investment pricing context, in which a CVaR maximizer agent will behave in a relativistic way based on his previous estimates of the probability function. Finally, such functional will be extended to incorporate a larger range of risk-averse attitudes and its main properties and implications will be illustrated through examples, such as the so-called Allais Paradox.     

Assessing small non-zero perceptions of chance: The case of H1N1 (swine) flu risks

Feelings of invulnerability, seen in judgments of 0% risk, can reflect misunderstandings of risk and risk behaviors, suggesting increased need for risk communication. However, judgments of 0% risk may be given by individuals who feel invulnerable, and by individuals who are rounding from small non-zero probabilities. We examined the effect of allowing participants to give more precise responses in the 0–1% range on the validity of reported probability judgments. Participants assessed probabilities for getting H1N1 influenza and dying from it conditional on infection, using a 0–100% visual linear scale. Those responding in the 0–1% range received a follow-up question with more options in that range. This two-step procedure reduced the use of 0% and increased the resolution of responses in the 0–1% range. Moreover, revised probability responses improved predictions of attitudes and self-reported behaviors. Hence, our two-step procedure allows for more precise and more valid measurement of perceived invulnerability.     

Risk taking after absolute and relative wealth changes: The role of reference point adaptation

We conducted an experiment to compare subjects’ attitudes toward risk before and after they experienced wealth changes induced by a real-effort task. We identified and estimated the subjects’ levels of reference point adaptation to absolute and relative wealth changes. We found that after experiencing a larger loss than others, the subjects did not completely adapt their reference points to the absolute wealth loss and the relative negative wealth gap, and thus significantly increased their risk-taking behavior. However, the subjects also did not adjust their attitudes toward risk after experiencing a smaller loss than others, a smaller gain than others, or a larger gain than others. This may be because they promptly adapted to wealth changes or because they did not adapt to wealth changes but the effects of absolute and relative wealth changes mostly offset each other.     

中国城乡居民教育获得的性别差异研究

一直以来,中国城乡居民教育获得的性别差异逐渐缩小,最近甚至开始出现女性超过男性的趋势。利用“2008年中国综合社会调查”（CGSS2008）数据,本研究探讨中国城乡居民教育获得性别不平等的变化趋势,并着重检验影响教育获得的各主要因素是否存在性别差异。研究发现：第一,性别不平等存在城乡差异,农村户口居民的性别不平等程度高于非农户口居民;第二,父亲的职业地位指数（ISEI）或父母的受教育水平越低,教育获得的性别不平等越严重;第三,兄弟姐妹人数越多的群体,教育获得的性别不平等越严重;最后,不同教育层次入学机会的性别不平等程度也不相同,教育层次越低,升学机会的性别不平等越严重。笔者认为上述教育获得的性别不平等模式来源于不同的社会群体对父权制观念或传统性别角色观念的认同感的差异。     

Regret theory and risk attitudes

We examine risk attitudes under regret theory and derive analytical expressions for two components—the resolution and regret premiums—of the risk premium under regret theory. We posit that regret-averse decision makers are risk seeking (resp., risk averse) for low (resp., high) probabilities of gains and that feedback concerning the foregone option reinforces risk attitudes. We test these hypotheses experimentally and estimate empirically both the resolution premium and the regret premium. Our results confirm the predominance of regret aversion but not the risk attitudes predicted by regret theory; they also clarify how feedback affects attitudes toward both risk and regret.