网络中选择环境对多样化寻求行为的影响研究

消费者在选择产品时通常会发生多样化寻求行为,而其对信息刺激的需要是消费者产生多样化寻求行为的原因之一。本文通过实验方法研究了在网络购物中,消费者是否会通过平衡从产品选择和选择环境中所获得的这两种刺激来达到其最佳刺激水平。研究结果显示,在网络环境下,通过改变选择环境中消费者同期购买的其他产品类别的构成,增加对受试者的刺激,会减少其在目标产品选择中的多样化寻求行为。     

基于心流体验视角的在线消费者购买行为影响因素研究

在线消费者处于虚拟的网络环境中,具有其独特的需求和行为特征,而"心流体验"理论在解释影响在线消费者行为的情感和认知因素方面有重要意义.本文将从"心流体验"视角探索影响在线消费者购物行为的因素.本文研究表明,网站设计维度、表现维度、消费者自身维度和网站内容维度都会显著影响在线消费者心流体验,从而导致消费者增加无计划的购买数量以及增强重复购买的意愿.     

Effective Design of Products/Services: An Approach Based on Integration of Marketing and Operations Management Decisions*

This paper presents an integrated framework for designing profit‐maximizing products/ services, which can also be produced at reasonable operating difficulty levels. Operating difficulty is represented as a function of product and process attributes, and measures a firm's relative ease or difficulty in meeting customer demand patterns under specified operating conditions. Earlier optimum product design procedures have not considered. operational difficulty. We show that optimum profit, market share, cost, and product profiles are dependent on operating difficulty level. Empirical results from the pizza delivery industry demonstrate the value of the proposed Effective Product/Service Design approach.     

Modeling Reputation as a Time‐Series: Evaluating the Risk of Purchase Decisions on eBay*

Reputation systems based on buyer feedback play an important role in today's online markets. In this article, we provide a rigorous methodology to establish a relationship between a seller's feedback history and risk of default. We validate this method against eBay's reputation system, using a dataset of terminated users (Not‐A‐Registered‐User or NARU) and the feedback left for them by buyers. By treating feedback rating data as a function of time, we characterize the tendency of change in seller feedback ratings in order to predict the behavior of a seller. We find that NARU sellers have significantly more negative feedback in their final weeks. Applying functional principal component analysis and classification tree methods, we find that when projecting the feedback data to an appropriate space, NARU and non‐NARU sellers can be distinguished at better than 92% accuracy. We use this to provide a quantitative mechanism for evaluating the risk of trading with a seller who has less than perfect feedback, and offer advice on how much a buyer should offer to pay, given an asking price on a commodity item and a seller's feedback history.     

The Impact of the Online Channel on Retailers' Performances: An Empirical Evaluation

The use of the Internet as an additional sales channel offers traditional retailers opportunities to reach expanded markets while improving the efficiency of their operations. Although the potential benefits of the online channel are clear, there are significant variations in the scope and depth of online channel use among retailers. Drawing from data on more than 100 publicly traded companies, this study examines the impact of online‐channel use on retailers’ performance. The results suggest that the online channel provides significant improvements in sales, cost, inventory, and return on investments. In addition, we find that the timing of online‐channel adoption does not play a significant role in performance improvement, but having a local store presence does.     

Optimal Design of the Online Auction Channel: Analytical,Empirical, and Computational Insights*

The focus of this study is on business‐to‐consumer (B2C) online auctions made possible by the advent of electronic commerce over an open‐source, ubiquitous Internet Protocol (IP) computer network. This work presents an analytical model that characterizes the revenue generation process for a popular B2C online auction, namely, Yankee auctions. Such auctions sell multiple identical units of a good to multiple buyers using an ascending and open auction mechanism. The methodologies used to validate the analytical model range from empirical analysis to simulation. A key contribution of this study is the design of a partitioning scheme of the discrete valuation space of the bidders such that equilibrium points with higher revenue structures become identifiable and feasible. Our analysis indicates that the auctioneers are, most of the time, far away from the optimal choice of key control factors such as the bid increment, resulting in substantial losses in a market with already tight margins. With this in mind, we put forward a portfolio of tools, varying in their level of abstraction and information intensity requirements, which help auctioneers maximize their revenues.     

网上交易中的声誉机制——来自淘宝网的证据

本文主要研究在法律缺失或法律不完善情况下网上交易中声誉机制的作用.计量回归结果显示,卖方的个人声誉(用卖方信用度来衡量)对其销售量有正面的影响,但这种影响是非线性的:存在两个临界点,低于下临界点,卖方信用度对卖家商品的销售量没有影响;高于上临界点,卖家商品的销售量也不会因为卖方信用度的提高而增加.属于商盟的卖家在给定时间内的销售量高于不属于任何商盟的卖家.从而验证了网上交易中卖家个人声誉和卖家所属商盟集体声誉的作用.本文根据实证结果进一步提出一个推测:网上交易市场存在较大的搜寻成本,这削弱了声誉机制的作用.     

Managing Risks in Multiple Online Auctions: An Options Approach*

The scenario of established business sellers utilizing online auction markets to reach consumers and sell new products is becoming increasingly common. We propose a class of risk management tools, loosely based on the concept of financial options that can be employed by such sellers. While conceptually similar to options in financial markets, we empirically demonstrate that option instruments within auction markets cannot be developed employing similar methodologies, because the fundamental tenets of extant option pricing models do not hold within online auction markets. We provide a framework to analyze the value proposition of options to potential sellers, option‐holder behavior implications on auction processes, and seller strategies to write and price options that maximize potential revenues. We then develop an approach that enables a seller to assess the demand for options under different option price and volume scenarios. We compare option prices derived from our approach with those derived from the Black‐Scholes model ( Black & Scholes, 1973 ) and discuss the implications of the price differences. Experiments based on actual auction data suggest that options can provide significant benefits under a variety of option‐holder behavioral patterns.     

在线投资行为的本地偏好:基于在线融资市场的实证研究

传统的市场交易存在本地偏好,交易双方的地理位置趋同。然而,在线众筹平台打破了空间局限,地理位置的影响理应比传统市场小得多。为此提出三个问题:(1)众筹投资行为是否存在本地偏好?以及不同层次本地偏好有何差异?(2)本地偏好对投资行为和项目融资效果的影响;(3)对投资者的本地偏好进行机理分析和理论解释。以Kickstarter为研究对象,从国家级、区域级以及微观三个层次,分别构建了本地偏好模型以分析用户投资行为。研究表明,众筹项目的投资行为存在本地偏好,投资者偏好投资距离较近的项目,并且三个层次的本地偏好呈现不同模式。戏剧类项目的投资意愿受本地偏好的影响最强烈,其次是食品类,影响最弱的是游戏类。对于投融双方的距离来说,戏剧类项目的平均距离最小,为1474公里;而游戏类项目的平均距离最大,达到4624公里。众筹投资的本地偏好具有叠加效用,即融资者在异地进行融资的话,可以获得更高的融资成功率。最后,从信息传递理论、心理学、行为学等角度解释了本地偏好存在的原因以及影响。本文丰富了互联网金融研究以及用户行为模式研究,从投资行为角度为众筹项目研究和实践提供了新视角。     

Knowing What Your Customer Wants: Improving Inventory Allocation Decisions in Online Movie Rental Systems

In Online Movie Rental Systems, customer desire to rent can often be observed before the actual consumption occurs. Desire represents uncensored (or true) demand information. Hence, the impact of inventory decisions (numbers of physical copies of different movies) can be accurately traced to the creation of desire (via Word‐of‐mouth), and then to rental. Word‐of‐Mouth (WOM) has been recognized as one of the most influential sources of information transmission, especially for experience goods. Poor inventory decisions may result in lost rentals in two ways: One is the loss of rentals because of low inventory (direct effect), and the other is the loss of the possible demand (rentals) that could have been created through WOM (indirect effect). We use data from an online DVD‐by‐mail firm to estimate the direct and indirect effects of inventory decisions, considering the circular relationship: Rental generates WOM, WOM creates Desire, and Desire turns into Rental. We find that the magnitude of indirect effects is significant, comparable to and sometimes even exceeding direct effects. The value of the empirical findings to facilitate better inventory allocation decisions is examined.     

Limitations to Empirical Extrapolation Studies: The Case of BMD Ratios

Extrapolation relationships are of keen interest to chemical risk assessment in which they play a prominent role in translating experimentally derived (usually in animals) toxicity estimates into estimates more relevant to human populations. A standard approach for characterizing each extrapolation relies on ratios of pre-existing toxicity estimates. Applications of this "ratio approach" have overlooked several sources of error. This article examines the case of ratios of benchmark doses, trying to better understand their informativeness. The approach involves mathematically modeling the process by which the ratios are generated in practice. Both closed form and simulation-based models of this "data-generating process" (DGP) are developed, paying special attention to the influence of experimental design. The results show the potential for significant limits to informativeness, and revealing dependencies. Future applications of the ratio approach should take imprecision and bias into account. Bootstrap techniques are recommended for gauging imprecision, but more complicated techniques will be required for gauging bias (and capturing dependencies). Strategies for mitigating the errors are suggested.     

Distributed Decisions in Networks: Laboratory Study of Routing Splittable Flow

We study network games in which users choose routes in computerized networks susceptible to congestion. In the “unsplittable” condition, route choices are completely unregulated, players are symmetric, each player controls a single unit of flow and chooses a single origin–destination (O–D) path. In the “splittable” condition, which is the main focus of this study, route choices are partly regulated, players are asymmetric, each player controls multiple units of flow and chooses multiple O–D paths to distribute her fleet. In each condition, users choose routes in two types of network: a basic network with three parallel routes and an augmented network with five routes sharing joint links. We construct and subsequently test equilibrium solutions for each combination of condition and network type, and then propose a Markov revision protocol to account for the dynamics of play. In both conditions, route choice behavior approaches equilibrium and the Braess Paradox is clearly manifested.     

Equity in Social Risk: Some Empirical Observations

In societal risk analysis the equity of the distribution of risks is often an important consideration owing to the special nature of health risks. We empirically validate some assumptions about equity that have been discussed in the decision analytic literature. Our results show that the way fatalities are distributed throughout a society is considered along with the number of fatalities in evaluating alternative policies involving mortality risks. The concepts of ex ante equity and ex post equity are both shown to be important in judgments of fairness. We next present a decision model based on multiattribute preference theory incorporating the number of fatalities, as well as ex ante equity and ex post equity. When ex ante equity and ex post equity are positively weighted in this fair-risk model , options with more equal risk distributions are ranked higher. Next we empirically show that the distribution of benefits has an impact on judgments of fairness. The fair-risk model does not include information on the benefits distribution, so it would apply when benefits are distributed equally or when the decision maker wishes to not include benefits in the model. We briefly discuss how the notion of proportional equity can incorporate benefits into judgments of the fairness of risk distributions. We then include benefits in a more general model in which fair risk-benefit combinations are those that are exchange equitable. A key implication of this envy-free risk–benefit model is that an unequal distribution of risks may be preferred if it is accompanied by a compensatory differential in benefits consistent with peoples' preference tradeoffs between received benefits and assumed risks. Finally, we discuss how perceived deservedness may influence judgments about equity. We conclude with a discussion of the implications of research on alternative notions of equity for policy makers dealing with social risks.     

双重视角下的竞争优势:内涵、代表性研究与基本分析单位

竞争优势是战略管理研究领域的核心概念。但是,现有文献对竞争优势的理解与分析视角存在着诸多差异,导致竞争优势的分析单位也不尽相同。为推动竞争优势理论的整合,本文从双重视角审视竞争优势的概念及代表性研究,并提出把产品作为竞争优势基本分析单位的分析逻辑与重要意义,为竞争优势理论的整合和发展提供了一个新的思路。     

How (not) to motivate online workers: Two controlled field experiments on leadership in the gig economy

An increasing number of workers participate in online labor markets. In contrast to traditional employment relationships within firms, the interaction between online workers and their employers are short and impersonal, which makes motivating online workers more challenging. We present results from two large-scale controlled field experiments on Amazon Mechanical Turk investigating the effects of monetary rewards and soft leadership techniques on output quantity and quality. In the first study, we investigate the effects of monetary rewards and simple upfront messages (praise or reference points). Monetary rewards increase quantity significantly. Sending simple messages, however, can have a significantly negative effect on quantity. The second study concentrates on the effects of communication based on charismatic leadership techniques. Charismatic communication techniques can also backfire if only a subset of them is used, whereas using a broad set including quantitative goals increases output quantity significantly. Neither intervention had a significant effect on the quality of work.     

品牌名、原产国、价格对感知质量与购买意向的暗示作用

选取恰当的品牌名是最重要的营销决策之一.发展中市场的企业都面临选取西化品牌名还是本土品牌名的问题,因为他们不清楚哪一个更能赢得消费者的偏好.本研究通过两个实验设计,检验了品牌名、原产国、价格对感知质量和购买意向的暗示作用.研究发现,原产国和价格对消费者的感知质量和购买意向均有显著影响,品牌名只对感知质量有影响,对购买意向影响不显著.品牌名和原产国、原产国和价格、品牌名和价格对感知质量和购买意向无交互作用,但三者对感知质量产生显著交互作用.西化品牌名对感知质量有正面影响,但对购买意向的影响不显著.文章讨论了研究结论的管理内涵.泛滥地取西化品牌名已让消费者感到困惑,他们怀疑西化的品牌名是否真的来自西方.在华外国品牌需要注意三点.第一,定期扫描市场以便弄清它们的品牌是否因当地品牌的模仿而被稀释,相似的品牌名、标识、广告均能稀释品牌形象.第二,取一个听似中国化的品牌名但借助营销传播强调其来源国是一个有效的战略.第三,当延伸到低端品牌时务必谨慎,因为价格水平对感知质量有正面影响.对于本土品牌而言,通过取个西化品牌名来模仿外国品牌的作法已不足以引起消费者正面反应.价格档次比取个西化品牌名更有助于改善本土品牌的形象,因为消费者将高价与高质量联系在一起.论文最后提出了本研究的局限性和进一步的研究方向.     

兴趣社交网络中的供需匹配研究:以豆瓣网为例

近年来兴起的兴趣社交网络中因其内在的商业价值引起了人们的注意.兴趣社交网络中涌现出大量的商品供需信息,带来的问题之一就是商品供需信息传播匹配效率低下.为解决上述问题,本文依托社会网络分析方法,探讨在具备小世界特性的兴趣社交网络中商品供需匹配的特点,研究商品传播和匹配的规律和提高匹配效率的策略.本文选取豆瓣网关注关系为实证数据,提出在兴趣社交网络中友邻信息相关度与供需信息传播匹配效率正相关的假设,并采用计算机仿真方法来验证假设.论文获取豆瓣网的社交网络数据、包括网络用户藏书数据和图书的标签数据,针对随机选取的1000个用户和200本图书作为实验样本,分别设计两套友邻信息相关度度量算法和两套兴趣社交网络中商品供需信息传播匹配算法,采用进行仿真模拟实验进行了比较.实验结果证实了人们对于商品检索的直观判断,得出在兴趣社交网络中,商品供需信息传播匹配效率与友邻信息相关度正相关的结论.     

酒店网上预订价格离差实证研究——以北京、上海和广州三地为例

本文跟踪收集了2005年6月9日到2006年7月31日中国北京、上海和广州三地11个网站、23家不同星级酒店网上预订的相关数据,分别从房型、酒店星级、地域和时间四个维度进行了分析.结果表明:房型、酒店星级、地域和时间对网上酒店预订价格离差具有显著的影响,其中酒店星级的影响最大,而且房型、酒店星级和地域三个因素其影响并不随时间发生变化;北京、上海和广州三地在网上酒店预订价格离差上存在差异,上海的网上酒店预订价格离差最大,而北京与广州的差别不显著.