Subjective Indicators Construction by Distance Indices: An Application to Life Satisfaction Data

The construction of subjective indicators for measuring phenomena expressed in an ordinal scale is a central issue in social sciences, particularly in sociology and psychology. In this paper, we propose the use of a subjective indicator by groups of units (for example, by geographical area) based on the ‘distance’ between the empirical cumulative distribution and a hypothetical cumulative distribution of reference. This approach allows to avoid the awkward question of the ‘quantification’ of an ordinal variable, i.e., the conversion of an ordinal variable into an interval variable. As an example of application, we consider life satisfaction data coming from the annual multipurpose survey on “Aspects of Daily Life”, carried out by the Italian National Institute of Statistics, and we present a comparison with some classical methods.     

The end of population growth in Asia

This paper presents probabilistic population projections for five regions of Asia (South Asia, Central Asia, China region, Pacific OECD and Pacific Asia) and Asia as a whole. Over this century, Asia will experience very heterogeneous demographic development: Central Asia is expected to almost double in population and South Asia will become by far the world’s most populous region, rapidly surpassing the China region. Simultaneously, the Pacific OECD countries are likely to shrink in population size and experience extreme population ageing. The proportion of the population aged 60 and above in these countries (with Japan having the greatest weight) is expected to reach 50 per cent of the total population (with the 95 per cent uncertainty interval ranging from 35 to 61 per cent). The China region will experience a more rapid speed of ageing, with the proportion aged 60 and above expected to increase by a factor of four from 10 per cent in 2000 to 39 per cent in 2100.     

Fertility and Financial Development in South Asia

The paper empirically examines old-age security hypothesis to explain fertility rates in South Asia. Panel data is used for the period 1972–2013 for seven South Asian countries which include Bangladesh, Bhutan, India, Maldives, Nepal, Pakistan and Sri Lanka. The estimated results reveal that in South Asia fertility rate decreases with the increase in financial development. Thus, the findings support old-age security hypothesis that parents use children as financial instruments to secure their old age. This paper validates the theory that the availability of alternative financial tools reduces the incentives of households to have large offspring. Infant mortality is also shown an important factor for high fertility rate in South Asia. This implies that households cover their risk from losing children by producing more children. The results also reveal that fertility rate decreases with the increase in per capita income, which implies that households treat children as inferior good in this region. In other words, households prefer quality of children over quantity of children when their income level increases. The results have also shown that fertility decreases with the increase in education, urbanization, agriculture productivity and industrialization. The study has some important policy implications.     

建国以来东北地区人口迁移与区域经济发展分析

东北地区是我国在建国初期重点建设的重工业基地,在东北地区的建设和开发过程中,大量外来人口迁入使东北地区人口增长速度一直高于全国平均水平。80年代经济体制改革以后,东北地区从人口净迁入转变为净迁出地区,特别是90年代中期以来,东北老工业基地显现出衰落的迹象,人口净迁出的速度加快,东北地区内部人口从北向南迁移的趋势增强,人口分布与区域经济分布的一致性提高。     

Insights from the Evaluation of Past Local Area Population Forecasts

Local area population forecasts have a wide variety of uses in the public and private sectors. But not enough is known about the errors of such forecasts, particularly over the longer term (20 years or more). Understanding past errors is valuable for both forecast producers and users. This paper (i) evaluates the forecast accuracy of past local area population forecasts published by Australian State and Territory Governments over the last 30 years and (ii) illustrates the ways in which past error distributions can be employed to quantify the uncertainty of current forecasts. Population forecasts from the past 30 years were sourced from State and Territory Governments. Estimated resident populations to which the projections were compared were created for the geographical regions of the past projections. The key features of past forecast error patterns are described. Forecast errors mostly confirm earlier findings with regard to the relationship between error and length of projection horizon and population size. The paper then introduces the concept of a forecast ‘shelf life’, which indicates how far into the future a forecast is likely to remain reliable. It also illustrates how past error distributions can be used to create empirical prediction intervals for current forecasts. These two complementary measures provide a simple way of communicating the likely magnitude of error that can be expected with current local area population forecasts.     

Facilitators of and barriers to providing high-quality midwifery education in South-East Asia—An integrative review

BackgroundWith a diversity in midwifery education across the South-East Asia region, and with the knowledge about the lifesaving competency of the midwife profession, this study’s aim is to describe facilitators of and barriers to providing high-quality midwifery education in South-East Asia.MethodsInspired by Whittemore and Knafl, we conducted a systematic integrative literature review including the five key stages of problem identification, literature search, data evaluation, data analysis, and presentation of results. The literature searches were conducted in October 2020 in the databases CINAHL, PubMed, and Scopus. A deductive data analysis based on global standards was performed.ResultsThe search identified 1257 articles, 34 of which were included. Countries in South-East Asia did not fully comply with the ICM global standards. Midwifery education was not separated from that of nursing, and educators lacked formal qualifications in midwifery. Curriculum implementation in the clinical area was a key barrier to achieving learning outcomes. Higher academic education for midwifery educators and mentorship programs facilitated the pedagogic and assessment process, focusing on the abilities of critical thinking, reflection, and decision-making.ConclusionsCountries in South-East Asia still have a long way to go before they can provide high-quality midwifery education. The identified facilitators can lead to a difference in students’ academic achievement and confidence in their clinical work. Coordinated actions will enable the progress in achieving competent midwives matching national health priorities. The findings highlight a need for more research on midwifery education in both theory and practice across the region.     

甘肃省不同地区出生缺陷致病因素分析

为提高人口素质,预防出生缺陷的发生。我们根据甘肃地理特点及经济状况,按随机分层整群抽样方法,抽取当地出生的5岁内婴幼儿作为调查对象。以出生缺陷患儿为病例组,以同年、同性别、居住地相近的正常儿作为对照,对其家庭进行调查。结果显示甘肃省不同地区出生缺陷共有的易患因素为:母亲孕早期服药史;母亲孕早期感染史;父亲年龄在35岁以上亦是产生出生缺陷的危险因素。提示实施出生缺陷干预工程应大力进行孕前、孕早健康教育,深化优生指导,以达到降低出生缺陷发生率的目的。     

Population trends and differentials in countries of the ESCAP region

The total population of the ESCAP region reached 2.4 billion in 1979, up from 2 billion in 1970. 6 of the 10 largest countries are in the region: China, India, Indonesia, Japan, Bangladesh, and Pakistan. East Asia contains 1.1 billion; Middle South Asia contains 923 million; Eastern South Asia, 354 million; and Oceania, 22 million. The crude birth rate for the total region dropped by 5 points from 1970-9; the crude death rate dropped by 2 points, resulting in a decline in the annual growth rate of .3 percentage points, from 2.1% in 1970 to 1.8% in 1979. Overall, the total fertility rate decreased by 15% from 4.8 to 4.1. The total fertility rate in Australia fell 33% from 2.8 to 1.9 and in New Zealand from 3.0 to 1.9, or 37%. Generally fertility is lower in urban areas than in rural with some exceptions. A strong negative relationship between level of education and fertility exists in all countries of Asia and the Pacific, however, the parity of women with some primary education exceeds that of women with no schooling. Life expectancy at birth for both sexes in the region increased from 55.1 years in 1970 to 58.7 years in 1979, or by 7%. The highest life expectancy is in Japan at 75.2 years. The infant mortality rate in the ESCAP region in 1979 was estimated to be 78/1000. World Fertility Survey data indicate that the mean age of first marriage is generally very low but gradually increasing.     

The Poverty-Growth-Inequality Triangle: Asia 1960s to 2010s

The main objective of this paper is to disentangle the poverty-growth-inequality triangle for Asia, its sub-regions and individual economies by constructing poverty and inequality profiles, decomposing poverty changes and modelling inequality. Due to a shortage of unit record data, analytical techniques are developed for estimating the poverty headcount ratio and regional inequality with minimum data requirements. Analytical results confirm significant reductions in poverty across the board due to fast growth, although the benign effect of growth on poverty was offset by worsening distributions in many economies. Furthermore, the poverty-reducing effect of growth has been diminishing over time and converging to 0 for many countries. Also, the cost of rising inequality in Asia was found to be surprisingly large in terms of missed poverty reduction. Looking ahead, Asia is expected to eradicate abject poverty soon but likely to continue facing high inequality, particularly income gaps between economies.

     

Regional—sub-cultural explanations of black fertility in the United States

This paper re-examines the relevance of the hypothesis concerning the Southern sub-culture and black fertility in the United States. According to zero-order correlation analysis, Southern-born blacks show higher fertility than those born in other regions. But a dummy-variable regression technique applied to the data from the 1970 public-use sample indicates that the Southern origin — independent of other factors-is not different from other regions. Southern birth has the effect of increasing black fertility, but much less so than birth in the North Central region. Southern blacks show higher fertility because of their lower socio-economic background. It is concluded that geographical regions in the United States have little or no cultural meaning in explaining reproductive behaviour.     

Regional-sub-cultural explanations of black fertility in the United States

Summary This paper re-examines the relevance of the hypothesis concerning the Southern sub-culture and black fertility in the United States. According to zero-order correlation analysis, Southern-born blacks show higher fertility than those born in other regions. But a dummy-variable regression technique applied to the data from the 1970 public-use sample indicates that the Southern origin - independent of other factors-is not different from other regions. Southern birth has the effect of increasing black fertility, but much less so than birth in the North Central region. Southern blacks show higher fertility because of their lower socio-economic background. It is concluded that geographical regions in the United States have little or no cultural meaning in explaining reproductive behaviour.     

Contents of heavy metals in arable soils and birth defect risks in Shanxi, China: a small area level geographic study

The burgeoning demands of China’s urbanization and industrial development put pressure on the resources of the entire country and have direct and indirect effects on the health of individuals, at times in areas far removed from cities themselves. Current evidence suggests that heavy metal pollution in soil, a common by-product of coal mining and other industrial activities, may be linked to risk of birth defects. We examine this hypothesis using small area level data including soil samples and detailed birth records from 2002 to 2004 from 97 villages in Shanxi province, a heavy coal-mining region. We find that soils containing arsenic, lead, and nickel are significantly correlated with the incidence of birth defects. In particular, we find a strong positive dose-dependent association of birth defects with lead, a moderate positive effect with arsenic, and a dose-dependent negative association with nickel. These results are consistent with the postulated link between arsenic and lead and human birth defects, but raise questions about the effects of nickel in this context. China’s rapid urbanization underscores the need for closer attention to the relationship between the health and the environment.     

The data and the dynamics of the Chinese populations

Historical demographic data on populations of the Chinese cultural area including counts, registrations, and continuous records are discussed in terms of problems of analysis. For many decades, censuses, investigations, and registration reports yielded generally faulty data on the numbers, and the age and sex structures of the populations. The problem here is not the adjustment of age and sex structures, but the use of faulty structures to estimate the dynamics of the population in the absence of either successive investigations or vital statistics. This paper analyzes these problems according to historical eras (Chinese Farm Population 1919-1932) or geographical areas (Taiwan, Manchuria, etc.). The writer concludes that further pursuit of estimates that agree with the Chinese demographic realities of the period requires a) a wider integration of comparable data and b) adjustment of age structures in relation to the habitual errors in response, the systematic biases in registration, and the deviations reflecting erratic factors or historic events.     

Research Note: What Counts as a House? Comparing 2010 Census Counts and Administrative Records

As a tool for fulfilling data needs for small area (subcounty) analysis, demographers are increasingly turning to administrative records such as building permits and tax assessor records as a source of data for use in producing small area demographic estimates. While Census counts are considered to be the “gold standard,” administrative records provide a fine level of spatial detail and a valuable source of information for intercensal years. However, there is uncertainty about the quality of administrative records data for use in estimation. This analysis builds upon earlier research by comparing administrative records-based housing unit estimates developed during the 2000s decade with housing counts from the 2010 Census in San Diego County. Results show that both administrative records and Census counts have strengths and weaknesses that should be understood by the data user.     

中、日、韩人口经济制度的阶段比较

中日韩三个国家因为地理、历史原因具有很强的发展趋同性,具有共同的人口经济发展阶段特征,引领着东亚经济快速发展。在人口经济制度方面正在进行或即将进行第四个发展阶段。经过研究认为契约关系是中日韩在人口经济制度发展变革中共同的认同点。从战略发展来看,及时调整各利益集团的利益合理分配、推动公共活动效率透明化是实现这一地区完成人口经济制度巨大变革的关键措施。     

The queer periphery: sexual deviancy and the cultural understanding of space

The association of normative sexuality with the geographical center and sexual deviancy with the geographical periphery represents a pattern of thinking that has stayed with us in different guises throughout history. The article traces this pattern and some of its complex ramifications from the ancient Greeks to the present.     

中国城市人口生活质量区域性量化研究

改革开放30年来,中国城市人口生活质量得到大幅度提高,但是,国内不同区域人口生活质量存在较大的差异。根据统计分析中因子分析和聚类分析的方法,构建评价生活质量的指标体系,运用社会统计学软件SPSS15.0对2005年中国31个地区16项反映城市人口生活质量的截面数据指标进行量化分析。同时,根据计算结果对中国东中西和东北地区4个区域31个地区城市人口生活质量水平进行等级划分和综合评价。     

Uncontrolled growth of human populations,geological background,and future prospects

The geological history of the Earth is replete with examples of animals proliferating to numbers that exceeded the ability of their environments to provide support. Enormous numbers and widespread distributions of many animals sometimes have been followed by drastic reductions in numbers of individuals and even by complete extinction of species. Humans of many nations are following the same trend of population growth beyond the ability of resources to insure adequate food, clothing, shelter, safety, and transport and beyond the ability of Earth to accommodate the wastes. Human population is now 5.4 billion, with a present doubling time estimated at about 35 years. Is this uncontrolled proliferation also to be followed by severe reduction or even extinction? If not, how may human population be stabilized or reduced to a level commensurate with resources and waste disposal—more effective contraceptives, increased abortion, high taxes on procreation? An approach more effective than religion or political control may be through better education (increased percentage literacy) that is known to correlate with lower birth rates and increased national income per capita in the about 167 nations of the world. If leadership cannot soon rise to face this situation, human inhabitation of the Earth may become much more complicated in the not distant future.     

Job Satisfaction in Fisheries Compared

This article draws comparative lessons from seven job satisfaction studies on marine capture fishing that were recently carried out in nine countries and three geographical regions??Asia, Africa, and the Caribbean. The seven studies made use of an identical job satisfaction assessment tool and present information on a selection of métiers mainly in the small-scale and semi-industrial fishing sectors. The responses manifest statistically significant geographical variation. Multidimensional plots and cluster analyses lead the authors to identify three clusters: (1) Southeast Asian (Vietnam and Thailand); (2) Caribbean (Belize, Nicaragua, Dominican Republic) and (3) Afro-Indian (Senegal, Guinea Bissau, and India). Jamaica is a significant outlier. On a general level, the authors conclude that fishers who report that they are not interested in leaving the occupation of fishing score higher on three traditional job satisfaction scales??basic needs, social needs and self actualization. Those who say they would leave fishing for another occupation are younger, have less fishing experience and smaller households. The latter findings are of relevance with regard to the pressing need, felt by fisheries managers, to move fishers out of the fishery.