Immigration, integration and fiscal sustainability

Economic theory points out that immigration of even low-skilled immigrants may improve public finances in Western welfare states, and it is sometimes suggested that fiscal sustainability problems in Western countries caused by ageing populations could be solved by increasing immigration. We examine consequences of various immigration scenarios using the large-scale computable general equilibrium model Danish rational economic agents model describing the Danish economy. It turns out that increased immigration will generally worsen the Danish fiscal sustainability problem. Improved economic integration of immigrants and their descendants, however, may alleviate the problems of the public sector considerably. Responsible editor: Klaus F. Zimmermann     

吉林省人口与生态环境的可持续发展研究

建国后,吉林省的人口发展经历了迅速增长和平稳下降两个阶段,而由此产生的劳动力就业压力和人口老龄化问题在未来几十年内将不容忽视。同时,人口的压力也造成了吉林省资源的紧张、生态的破坏。因此,我们要进一步提高人口质量,控制人口数量,才能真正实现人口与资源、环境的可持续发展。     

Population, population density and technological change

In a model on population and endogenous technological change, Kremer (1993) combines a short-run Malthusian scenario where income determines the population that can be sustained, with the Boserupian insight that greater population spurs technological change and can therefore lift a country out of its Malthusian trap. We show that a more realistic version of the model, which combines population and population density, allows deeper insights into these processes. The incorporation of population density also allows a superior interpretation of the empirical regularities between the level of population, population density, population growth, and economic development at aggregated and disaggregated levels.

提升福建省人口承载力问题的探讨

基于人口与资源环境关系紧张的现实,特别是进入21世纪,我国提出以科学发展观为指导,构建资源节约型、环境友好型社会,追求人口、经济、资源、环境的全面、协调与可持续发展,围绕人口承载力的研究成果不断出现。本文通过运用定性与定量相结合的方法分析了福建省人口、资源、环境所决定的人口承载力现状,在此基础上提出了福建省提升人口承载力、坚持走可持续发展道路的对策性建议。     

可持续发展中的人口问题--2002年全球科学委员会的人口科学政策声明

本文回顾了2002年全球科学委员会关于可持续发展的人口问题的政策声明的形成过程,简要介绍了该声明的主要观点。     

顺德市人口、资源、环境与可持续发展

本文模拟了顺德市在不实行计划生育政策的条件下的人口增长情况 ,结果发现由于计划生育 ,在 1971- 1998年间 ,顺德市少生了 5 0多万人口 ,从而使顺德市的人口、资源、环境在经济高速发展的情况下仍能基本协调。文章也分析了顺德市目前的人口、资源与环境可持续发展的状况和问题 ,并提出了一些建议     

Inequality in Human Development across the Globe

The Human Development Index is the world's most famous indicator of the level of development of societies. A disadvantage of this index is however that only national values are available, whereas within many countries huge subnational variation in development exists. We therefore have developed the Subnational Human Development Index (SHDI), which shows within-country variation in human development across the globe. Covering more than 1,600 regions within 161 countries, the SHDI and its underlying dimension indices provide a 10 times higher resolution picture of human development than previously available. The newly observed within-country variation is particularly strong in low- and middle-developed countries. Education disparities explain most SHDI inequality within low-developed countries, and standard of living differences are most important within the more highly developed ones. Strong convergence forces operating both across and within countries have compensated the inequality enhancing force of population growth. These changes will shape the twenty-first century agenda of scientists and policy-makers concerned with global distributive justice.     

Rethinking certification theory and the educational development of the United States and Germany

This essay places work certification at the center of all modern educational regimes. I sketch the growth of the education, training, and certification systems of the United States and Germany in new ways, highlighting the role of their highly divergent certification regimes in shaping them. Whereas Germany's education and training system, anchored in the economy through employers’ associations and unions, accords well with human capital models, American practice, governed primarily by academic interests divorced from the economy, fits much better with credentialist theory. I consider how the absence of meaningful work certification at the secondary level in the US negatively affects educational justice and has encouraged the creation of a costly, inegalitarian system of higher education. Finally, I conclude with an assessment of human capital, signaling, control, and credentialist theories of certification, one that finds them all to some degree wanting.     

关于人口、资源、环境经济学的若干思考

本文通过对人口、资源、环境、经济系统框架结构的分析导出了该学科应实现的两个目标:维持系统平衡和实现系统效益最大化。围绕这两个目标讨论了该学科的研究内容,提出了应将人口、资源、环境、经济大系统建设成为灵敏的自组织系统,引入“生态人”新观念,以系统效益最大化为新的价值判断标准。     

Political instability, gender discrimination, and population growth in developing countries

This paper introduces gender discrimination and population growth into a model of political economy. The government keeps up the military for the sake of political instability in the country. It is shown that if the risk of internal conflicts is high, then the government needs a bigger military and a larger supply of young men for it. The government is then willing to boost population growth by keeping women outside the production (e.g. neglecting their education or restricting their movement). Some empirical evidence on the interdependence of political instability, population growth, and gender discrimination is provided.

中国适度人口研究述评

本文对中国适度人口研究进行了回顾与总结,分析了中国适度人口研究中存在的问题,指出了中国适度人口研究的未来走向.     

论加强青海人口发展战略研究的必要性与紧迫性

面对青海日益严峻的人口形势,要求我们必须要用科学的态度正视青海的人口问题,抓紧研究青海人口发展战略,这不仅是实施青海可持续发展战略的前提条件和重要内容,也是实现全面建设青海小康社会的客观需要和制定青海经济社会发展规划的重要依据。     

Women's empowerment as a public problem: A case study of the 1994 International Conference on Population and Development

Using the 1994 International Conference on Population and Development (ICPD) as a case study, I examine how women's empowerment amassed public attention. I investigate feminist preparations for the conference and suggest that by playing an active role in preparatory meetings and the conference, women gained recognition from governments throughout the world and from the United Nations, and helped frame issues in a way that motivated the press to highlight women's empowerment. I argue empowering women became a catch phrase for media coverage and that abortion surfaced as a symbol of this empowerment. UN publications and reports of proceedings prior to, and during the 1994 ICPD, and articles from The New York Times illustrate use of this media package. The paper raises questions about types of policies governments will use to improve the position of women and the political power women will have in decisions.     

Demographic pressure,economic development,and social engineering: An assessment of fertility declines in the second half of the twentieth century

Population Research and Policy Review - Concerns over the prospects of explosive demographic growth led to concerted efforts to engineer fertility reductions in the developing world, while skeptics...     

SMS与CBA的结合——对新古典环境价值评估方法的修正

新古典价值评估方法CBA(费用效益分析)在环境价值评估中的应用,由于其自身的缺限,严重掩盖和低估了主要的环境生态问题。从可持续发展的角度看,与SMS(最低安全标准)分析相结合的CBA方法是一种更具约束性的价值评估方法。     

青海省人口、资源、环境与经济、社会的协调发展研究

本文运用系统论、SPSS主成分分析法,对青海省人口、资源、环境与经济、社会的协调发展的总体水平进行了分析,构建了人口、资源、环境与经济、社会的协调发展模型,计算出这五个子系统之间的协调发展状况,并进行了评价,为青海省的可持续发展问题提供参考。     

关于人、鹰、鸡关系的沉思——再评人口乐观论

本文首先对美国经济学家乔治·亨利等人的人口乐观论进行了分析和研究;并在此基础上,对人口越多越好的观点提出了质疑和批评;最后,本文提出了自己的三个观点。     

1954—2005年新疆兵团人口发展特点及制约因素分析

本文从人口增长变动、人口分布、人口构成等方面分析了新疆兵团人口的发展特点．并进一步提出了制约兵团人口发展的因素。分析结果表明：50多年来兵团人口增长迅速,人口总数中,省际人口迁移量大且占有重要的地位：人口再生产类型已经实现了转变,出现了低出生、低死亡、低增长率;人口分布不均;总人口性别比严重失调;就业人口趋于减少,劳动力资源的供蛤严重不足。制约兵团人口发展的因素主要是自然环境差以及经济发展水平低。     

吉林省人口增长与社会经济发展过程中存在的问题及对策研究

人口增长与社会经济发展的关系十分复杂,从人口学角度出发,运用五普及相关资料,对吉林省人口增长和社会经济发展进行分析,可以看到,虽然吉林省人口增长和社会经济发展总的形势比较良好,但依然存在诸如人口基数大、劳动力年龄人口增长快、老年人口增长快、城镇人口增长快等一系列问题,影响了社会经济的发展。     

Cross-National Variation in Individual Life Satisfaction: Effects of National Wealth, Human Development, and Environmental Conditions

This study adds to the literature on subjective well-being and life satisfaction by exploring variation in individual life satisfaction across countries. Understanding whether and how individual life satisfaction varies across countries is important because if the goal of development is to increase well-being, we must identify the causes of well-being in different national and regional contexts. Using hierarchical linear modeling techniques, I test the hypothesis that individual well-being does vary across countries, and that national wealth, human development and environmental conditions explain this variation. I also test whether the effects of individual characteristics on life satisfaction (including age, marital status, education, income, employment status, and sex) vary across countries, and which country level characteristics explain these variations. Using individual level data from the World Values Survey, I find that there is significant variation in life satisfaction across countries. There is also significant variation in the slopes of individual predictors of life satisfaction across countries and regions. Regional differences in the effects of individual characteristics on life satisfaction explain most of the between country variation in life satisfaction. This indicates that universal development indicators may not adequately reflect differences in life satisfaction across countries, and that development measurements should better reflect regional differences.