Demographic consequences of the 1984–1985 Ethiopian famine

This article analyzes demographic responses to the 1984-1985 Ethiopian famine and compares them with Bongaarts and Cain's (1982) hypothesized responses. After briefly describing the data collection, I estimate the age distribution and the age-specific mortality and fertility rates of Ethiopian famine victims in a resettlement area and compare these with mortality estimates for the 1972-1973 Bangladesh famine and with fertility estimates from the 1981 Ethiopian demographic survey. The results show that the mortality rate among Ethiopian famine victims was about seven times higher than the rate among the Bangladesh victims and that the Ethiopian famine-related mortality was general and not a function of household socioeconomic variables. The data also show a 26 percent lower total fertility rate among famine victims.     

Death by survey: Estimating adult mortality without selection bias from sibling survival data

The widely used methods for estimating adult mortality rates from sample survey responses about the survival of siblings, parents, spouses, and others depend crucially on an assumption that, as we demonstrate, does not hold in real data. We show that when this assumption is violated so that the mortality rate varies with sibship size, mortality estimates can be massively biased. By using insights from work on the statistical analysis of selection bias, survey weighting, and extrapolation problems, we propose a new and relatively simple method of recovering the mortality rate with both greatly reduced potential for bias and increased clarity about the source of necessary assumptions.     

Using Subjective Expectations to Forecast Longevity: Do Survey Respondents Know Something We Don’t Know?

Old-age mortality is notoriously difficult to predict because it requires not only an understanding of the process of senescence-which is influenced by genetic, environmental, and behavioral factors-but also a prediction of how these factors will evolve. In this paper I argue that individuals are uniquely qualified to predict their own mortality based on their own genetic background, as well as environmental and behavioral risk factors that are often known only to the individual. Given this private information, individuals form expectations about survival probabilities that may provide additional information to demographers and policymakers in their challenge to predict mortality. From expectations data from the 1992 Health and Retirement Study (HRS), I construct subjective, cohort life tables that are shown to predict the unusual direction of revisions to U.S. life expectancy by gender between 1992 and 2004: that is, for these cohorts, the Social Security Actuary (SSA) raised male life expectancy in 2004 and at the same lowered female life expectancy, narrowing the gender gap in longevity by 25% over this period. Further, although the subjective life expectancies for men appear to be roughly in line with the 2004 life tables, the subjective expectations of women suggest that female life expectancies estimated by the SSA might still be on the high side.     

Individual and couple utility of children

Models specifying the utility of another child as either a couple or an individual experience and incorporating variations in the measurement properties of responses about child utility and expectations are estimated with data from the U.S. Value of Children survey. Full information, maximum likelihood analyses indicate that child utility is an individual experience of wives and husbands rather than a shared couple experience. That is, differences in the measurement properties of wives’ and husbands’ responses do not account entirely for the less than perfect correlations between their responses. These findings demonstrate the importance of estimating errors in measurement in the analysis of wives’ and husbands’ responses about the utility of children, and they challenge the assumption that marital partners share the utility of children.     

Household allocation decisions and child health: can behavioral responses to vitamin A supplementation programs explain heterogeneous effects?

Biological research predicts that giving children vitamin A supplements will significantly reduce mortality from diarrheal and respiratory infections, but evaluations of supplementation programs in the field have produced a wide range of estimated mortality effects. In this paper, I explain these differences by differential household behavioral responses to programs. I find evidence that the mortality effect varies by observable determinants of household allocation to children. Additionally, I find that households improve malaria prevention for children that receive vitamin A supplements and that this effect varies by the same household allocation determinants.     

Forecasting environmental migration to the United Kingdom: an exploration using Bayesian models

Over the next 50 years, the potential impact of environmental change on human livelihoods could be considerable, with one possible consequence being increased levels of human mobility. This paper explores how uncertainty about the level of immigration to the United Kingdom as a consequence of environmental factors elsewhere may be forecast using a methodology involving Bayesian models. The conceptual understanding of forecasting is advanced in three ways. First, the analysis is believed to be the first time that the Bayesian modelling approach has been attempted in relation to environmental mobility. Second, the paper considers the expediency of this approach by comparing the responses to a Delphi survey with conventional expectations about environmental mobility in the research literature. Finally, the values and assumptions of the expert evidence provided in the Delphi survey are interrogated to illustrate the limited set of conditions under which forecasts of environmental mobility, as set out in this paper, are likely to hold.     

The influence of network mortality experience on nonnumeric response concerning expected family size: Evidence from a Nepalese mountain village

This article investigates the effects of sociometric network members' self-reported experiences with infant mortality on nonnumeric responses regarding expected family size among women in a small Nepalese community. The hypotheses tested include (1) that uncertainty about child survival, measured as average infant mortality across social networks, increases the likelihood of a nonnumeric response and (2) that this effect will be stronger when there is less variance in infant mortality experience within women a networks. The results suggest that nonnumeric response may be related to uncertainty about mortality derived through social learning.     

“Some University Lecturers Wear Gay Pride T-shirts. Get Over It!”: Denials of Homophobia and the Reproduction of Heteronormativity in Responses to a Gay-Themed T-shirt

ABSTRACT

This article explores an incident involving a gay pride T-shirt, printed with the slogan “Some people are gay. Get over it!,” that I wore during a university lecture, and students’ predominantly negative responses to it. I use the lens of modern prejudice research, particularly discursive psychological approaches to modern prejudice, to interpret the students’ responses to a qualitative survey about their views on the T-shirt. They related strong feelings of upset and anger, particularly because I had—in their view—implicitly accused them of being homophobic. They passionately refused this supposed accusation on the grounds that “everything’s equal now” and “gay people are no different from us.” I argue that the ideological themes of cultural heterosexism and compulsory heterosexuality provide a productive framework for making sense of the students’ responses, as they sanction a rational neoliberal subject who is both non-homophobic and inculcated into heteronormativity.     

Developing Survey Measures of Inequality of Autonomy in the UK

This paper explores the development of survey questions to measure autonomy, interpreted as the degree of choice and control a person has in key areas of his or her life. A review of the theoretical literature leads to a conceptualisation of autonomy as consisting of three components: (1) self-reflection, (2) active or delegated decision-making, and (3) a wide variety of high-quality options. Three major barriers to autonomy are identified: (1) conditioned expectations, (2) coercion, and (3) structural constraints, including lack of advice and support. A suite of questions designed to assess these components and barriers was devised and subjected to cognitive testing with a purposive sample of 34 individuals with diverse characteristics. The tests resulted in refinements to the language, response categories and phrasing of questions. Analysis of responses indicated that issues of decision-making and range and quality of options were easier for respondents to grasp than questions about self-reflection, and conditioned expectations could be detected only indirectly. Nevertheless the components of, and barriers to, autonomy could be separately identified. The article concludes that despite limitations, survey measurement of the complex concept of autonomy is possible and revealing.     

Eliciting Survival Expectations of the Elderly in Low-Income Countries: Evidence From India

We examine several methodological considerations when eliciting probabilistic expectations in a developing country context using the Longitudinal Ageing Study in India (LASI). We conclude that although, on average, individuals are able to understand the concept of probability, responses are sensitive to framing effects and to own versus hypothetical-person effects. We find that overall, people are pessimistic about their survival probabilities compared with state-specific life tables and that socioeconomic status does influence beliefs about own survival expectations as found in previous literature in other countries. Higher levels of education and income have a positive association with survival expectations, and these associations persist even when conditioning on self-reported health. The results remain robust to several alternative specifications. We then compare the survival measures with objective measures of health. We find that activities of daily life, height, and low hemoglobin levels covary with subjective expectations in expected directions.     

Comparison of Face-to-Face and Web Surveys on the Topic of Homosexual Rights

ABSTRACT

Although academic research on homosexuality relies heavily on survey data, there has been limited study of the survey method of asking relevant questions. This study examines the effect of survey mode on responses to questions about homosexual rights. We find significant mode effects among heterosexual respondents, who are more likely to support equal access to employment, military service, adoption, and marriage for homosexual people in face-to-face surveys than in Web surveys. They are also more likely to choose to not respond when face-to-face than online. Homosexual respondents do not show mode effects for either substantive responses or item nonresponse rate.     

Estimation of mortality from orphanhood in adulthood

This paper extends earlier research into methods for estimating adult mortality from information on the recent incidence of orphanhood. It presents a series of regression coefficients for estimating female and male mortality from synthetic cohort data on the subsequent orphanhood of those who had a living mother or father at exact age 20. Such information can be obtained either where questions about parental survival have been asked in two inquiries or by asking retrospectively about dates of orphanhood in a single survey. Although the method is somewhat sensitive to errors in the reporting of ages and dates, it is a promising source of up-to-date estimates of adult mortality that are free from bias due to the underreporting of the orphanhood of young children ("the adoption effect").     

New evidence on the value of birth expectations

Past national surveys regarding birth expectations have usually been restricted to currently married women, a fact which has led demographers to question the usefulness of these data. Because the June 1976 Current Population Survey includes the expectations of all women in a cohort regardless of marital status, it provides the data needed to evaluate biases due to restricted survey universes. At older ages, where there are substantial differences in lifetime expectations between currently married and single women, there are relatively few single women; at younger ages, however, where the proportion of single women in a cohort is relatively large, the differences in expectations are small. This counterbalancing effect makes the lifetime birth expectations of currently married women a close approximation of all women in a cohort. The analysis also indicates that the observed intracohort declines in lifetime birth expectations since 1967 were due largely to the addition at subsequent survey dates of previously unmarried women; nevertheless, some “true” cohort declines also seem to have occurred.     

The use of the multiplicity survey to identify migrants

New approaches must be developed and tested to meet the needs for current data on population movement. One such approach is the survey with multiplicity (social networks). It allows respondents to report events (in this case, migration) that occurred to specified relatives living elsewhere. In order to test the value of the approach on a limited, exploratory basis, a two-stage research design was employed. A sample of persons resident in Cranston; Rhode Island who had changed address in the three years preceding the survey, was first identified and information was gathered in Round I on their mobility and on their relatives living in the State. In tum, these relatives (Round II) were asked about the mobility of their parents, siblings, and children. (The responses from Round II should have included the migrants in Round I.) Evaluation of the accuracy of Round II responses in comparison to those obtained in Round I was undertaken in terms of kin relationships, recency of move, and type of move. The results indicate that respondents had a low awareness of their relatives’ movements, that moves of females were more likely to be reported than those of males, that recent moves were more frequently cited, and that moves between communities were more likely to be reported than intracity mobility.     

Determinants of short- and long-term mobility expectations for home owners and renters

Confusion about the role of residential satisfaction vis-à-vis structural factors in the mobility process stems from the failure to examine the determinants of mobility over varying time frames and housing tenures. Using survey data for a random sample of 580 Phoenix-area households, we test models of short-term (1 year) and long-term (5 years) mobility expectations for home owners and renters. The results show that residential satisfaction mediates the effects of structural variables on mobility expectations in the short term for home owners. In the long-term model for home owners and the short-term model for renters, the role of satisfaction as an intervening force declines in relative importance. Among renters, structural variables operate directly on long-term mobility expectations.     

Some aspects of the use of birth expectations data from sample surveys for population projections

The value of national sample survey data relating to birth expectations for projecting births is reassessed in the light of data limitations pointed out by Ryder and Westoff among others and of the methods of projection used by the United States Bureau of the Census. The annual level of fertility under the cohort-fertility projection method depends on the assumptions regarding completed fertility, about which the available survey data are fairly informative, and on the assumptions regarding the timing of births, about which the survey data tell us very little. Test calculations suggest that Ryder and Westoff have overstated the significance of timing relative to completed family size for the level of future births. We believe that the fall in the annual total fertility rate in the first half of the sixties is to be explained only in part by a general delay in childbearing; a moderate to substantial decrease in completed family size has also occurred. Analysis of the latest set of fertility projections of the Census Bureau also suggests that the assumptions about completed fertility are a much more important determinant of the level of future births than timing, both in the short and long term. Although the available expectations data cannot help in predicting short-term annual changes in fertility, they appear useful for making long-term projections of annual fertility. Expansion of the size, frequency, and content of the sample surveys and incorporation of parity and birth interval into the projection method may improve projections.     

Prenatal Exposure to an Acute Stressor and Children’s Cognitive Outcomes

Exposure to environmental stressors is highly prevalent and unequally distributed along socioeconomic lines and may have enduring negative consequences, even when experienced before birth. Yet, estimating the consequences of prenatal stress on children’s outcomes is complicated by the issue of confounding (i.e., unobserved factors correlated with stress exposure and with children’s outcomes). I combine a natural experiment—a strong earthquake in Chile—with a panel survey to capture the effect of prenatal exposure on acute stress and children’s cognitive ability. I find that stress exposure in early pregnancy has no effect on children’s cognition among middle-class families, but it has a strong negative influence among disadvantaged families. I then examine possible pathways accounting for the socioeconomic stratification in the effect of stress, including differential exposure across socioeconomic status, differential sensitivity, and parental responses. Findings suggest that the interaction between prenatal exposures and socioeconomic advantage provides a powerful mechanism for the intergenerational transmission of disadvantage.     

城乡居民养老保险制度的满意度分析——以陕西省洛南县为例

文章结合陕西省洛南县城乡居民养老保险制度的实际情况,构建了该制度的满意度指数CSI模型;并通过问卷数据的处理对模型进行了验证,表明可进一步进行结构模型分析。分析得出：感知质量是影响居民满意度的首要因素,居民预期和政府形象对居民满意度的影响较弱;政府形象在模型中的影响广泛,对居民预期的影响最为显著;居民满意度和居民抱怨对居民忠诚度的影响显著。通过对结论进行理论分析,提出了相关的政策建议。     

基于期望与感知的毕业生就业满意度分析--以山东省济南市高校为例

对高校毕业生就业满意度进行界定,提出利用期望值和实际感知值测算就业满意度的模型,并基于山东省济南市512名大学生问卷调查数据,运用主成分分析法及排序模型分别对大学生就业前期望值与就业后实际感知值进行了分析,并由此测算出山东省济南市高校毕业生就业满意度。结果表明,高校毕业生整体满意度不高,其中,满意度最低的就是职业待遇因子、职业发展因子,两者低于高校毕业生整体满意度,而职业稳定因子、职业外部环境因子、职业内部环境因子的满意度高于整体满意度。本文提出提高高校毕业生就业满意度的途径,可以从提高毕业生的实际就业感知或降低毕业生就业前期望两方面入手。     

Comparing two survey methods for estimating maternal and perinatal mortality in rural Cambodia

PURPOSE: We need solid estimates of maternal mortality rates (MMR) to monitor the impact of maternal care programs. Cambodian health authorities and WHO report the MMR in Cambodia at 450 per 100,000 live births. The figure is drawn from surveys where information is obtained by interviewing respondents about the survival of all their adult sisters (sisterhood method). The estimate is statistically imprecise, 95% confidence intervals ranging from 260 to 620/100,000. The MMR estimate is also uncertain due to under-reporting; where 80-90% of women deliver at home maternal fatalities may go undetected especially where mortality is highest, in remote rural areas. The aim of this study was to attain more reliable MMR estimates by using survey methods other than the sisterhood method prior to an intervention targeting obstetric rural emergencies. PROCEDURES: The study was carried out in rural Northwestern Cambodia where access to health services is poor and poverty, endemic diseases, and land mines are endemic. Two survey methods were applied in two separate sectors: a community-based survey gathering data from public sources and a household survey gathering data direct from primary sources. FINDINGS: There was no statistically significant difference between the two survey results for maternal deaths, both types of survey reported mortality rates around the public figure. The household survey reported a significantly higher perinatal mortality rate as compared to the community-based survey, 8.6% versus 5.0%. Also the household survey gave qualitative data important for a better understanding of the many problems faced by mothers giving birth in the remote villages. There are detection failures in both surveys; the failure rate may be as high as 30-40%. PRINCIPLE CONCLUSION: Both survey methods are inaccurate, therefore inappropriate for evaluation of short-term changes of mortality rates. Surveys based on primary informants yield qualitative information about mothers' hardships important for the design of future maternal care interventions.