Welfare analysis of a tax reform for Germany: a comparison of the unitary and collective models of household labour supply

We compare results of a tax reform analysis obtained with the collective and unitary models of household behaviour. We simulate real world micro-data by means of a collective approach, using a compound procedure of estimation and calibration based on the 1998 wave of the German socio-economic panel. We estimate a unitary model on this ‘collective’ data set. Investigating a move from joint to individual taxation on the basis of both models, we obtain important discrepancies between predicted adjustments to labour supply and distortions in the welfare analysis of the reform on the basis of unitary estimates.      

Welfare measurement in labour supply models with nonlinear budget constraints

This paper is concerned with the measurement of individual welfare in labour supply models which allow for the impact of income taxation and income support schemes on labour supply decisions. The paper is motivated by the concern over the need to have measures which can be interpreted easily, which can be compared with net income, and which can be meaningfully aggregated. To illustrate the issues we use estimates of a discrete choice model of labour supply for United Kingdom lone mothers to compute alternative welfare measures which might be considered as having intuitive appeal to policy-makers. We compute welfare change based on these measures arising from a recent reform of the child support payments system. Received: 25 February 1997/Accepted: 12 March 1998     

Modeling female fertility using inflated count data models

For modeling complete female fertility we propose a zero-and-two-inflated count data model, which accounts for a relative excess of both zero and two children. As the underlying distribution of counts we use the standard Poisson distribution and the more general Gamma count distribution. We compare our proposed model with standard count data models by using data on complete fertilities for a sample of Swedish women. The preferred specification for Swedish fertility data is the zero-and-two inflated Gamma count data model. The estimated “extra” probabilities of zero and two children, when modelled as individual specific probabilities, vary substantially across individuals, with mean of 0.05 and 0.16, respectively. These extra probabilities show that women who formed a family later in life have a higher probability of being childless, and women of our youngest cohort have a higher probability of forming a two-child family. Received: 7 January 1999/Accepted: 19 May 1999     

The labour supply of Indigenous Australian females: the effects of fertility and interactions with the justice system

Indigenous females are among the most disadvantaged groups in Australia; Furthermore outcomes for Indigenous Australians compare unfavourably with those for similar First Nations around the world. There appears to be a demographic transition under way in Indigenous Australia whereby declines in fertility and mortality are likely to lead to an increase in the number of Indigenous people supplying their labour in the near future. This paper examines the determinants of Indigenous female labour force participation with a particular focus on the role of fertility and interaction with the justice system. The analysis controls for the standard determinants of labour supply, but its main contribution is in taking into account the endogeneity of these potential interruptions to labour market participation. These findings are also important because Indigenous Australian females are 22 times more likely to be in prison than other Australian females and hence the analysis has crucial implications for the ability of policy makers to ‘close the gaps’ between Indigenous and other Australians. Once endogeneity of fertility with labour supply is taken into account, there is no significant independent effect on labour force participation and hence policy should focus on the other factors including education and training.     

Adieu Rabenmutter—culture,fertility, female labour supply,the gender wage gap and childcare

This paper studies the effect of cultural attitudes on childcare provision, fertility, female labour supply and the gender wage gap. Cross-country data show that fertility, female labour force participation and childcare provision are positively correlated with each other, while the gender wage gap seems to be negatively correlated with these variables. The paper presents a model with endogenous fertility, female labour supply and childcare choices driven by cultural attitudes which fits these facts. There may exist multiple equilibria: one with zero childcare provision, low fertility and female labour supply and high wage gap and one with high childcare provision, high fertility and female labour supply and low wage gap.     

Below-replacement fertility and prospects for labour force growth in Taiwan

Fertility in Taiwan had declined to replacement level in 1983. In 1986–1997, the total fertility rate dropped to 1.7–1.8, with continuing decreases observed in 1997–2001. Fertility will probably be sustained at the 2001 level of 1.48 or even decline further in the future. If the current fertility and labour-force participation rates persist, the size of the labour force will increase only slightly in the next 15 years and begin to shrink soon after 2015. After 2034, the labour force will fall below the current level and Taiwan will face a labour shortage. Though efficient, the policy option of importing more foreign workers is fraught with political sensitivities, especially given the current economic downturn and rising unemployment. Another policy approach, to increase the participation rates for women and mature men, would lead to growth in the labour supply sometime after 2030 and, combined with a modest increase in fertility, would prevent the labour force from falling below its current size in the next 50 years. Notwithstanding that any increase in fertility will have a delayed effect on labour supply, strong incentives are still required to affect fertility behaviour.     

Relational contracts for household formation,fertility choice and separation

This paper applies the theory of relational contracts to a model in which a couple decides upon fertility and subsequently on continuation of the relationship. We formalize the idea that within-household-cooperation can be supported by selfinterest. Since the costs of raising children—a household public good—are unequally distributed between partners, a conflict between individually optimal and efficient decisions exists. Side-payments can support cooperation but are not legally enforceable and thus have to be part of an equilibrium. This requires stable relationships and credible punishment threats.Within this framework, we analyze the effects of separation costs and post-separation alimony payments on couples’ fertility decisions. We derive the predictions that higher separation costs and higher alimony payments facilitate cooperation and hence increase fertility. We present empirical evidence based on a recent German reform that reduced rights to post-divorce alimony payments. We find that this reform reduced in-wedlock fertility.     

The Canadian sample for labour force and other population data

An area sample is now being taken quarterly in Canada for labour force and a wide variety of other population data. Since reliable lists of households cannot be obtained without substantial expense the amount of field work is reduced to a minimum by the use of maps which may be thought of as an implicit listing. Random selection with known probabilities is applied in several stages, the overall result being a 1 % sample of the population. The survey data provide not only estimates of unemployment, movement of population, etc., but also give the errors of estimate. During the 3 years of its operation, information has been obtained for government and public use on housing conditions, rents, farm fires and accidents, sickness, fish consumption and many other matters.     

The influence of labour force participation and education on fertility in Thailand

Abstract Increasingly, discussion of the appropriateness and effectiveness of methods to limit population growth have focussed both on measures which seek to provide new and efficient contraceptives to an ever larger target population and on those measures which go beyond family planning to emphasize the need for adoption of policies 'expressly related to family roles and opportunities for legitimate alternative satisfactions and activities'.(1) Proponents of the latter course of action argur that such policies offer greater promise of reduction in family size because they directly assault the motivational framework of reproduction. Among the means suggested for limiting reproductioe within marriage as well as postponing marriage is modification of the complementarity of the rolen of men and women.(2) Of particular interest in this regard is the nature of the relation betweens female labour force participation and education and fertility, and the implications these relations may have for future fertility reduction, particularly in the developing world.     

Count data models for demographic data

"This paper deals with the estimation of single equation models in which the counts are regressed on a set of observed individual characteristics such as age, gender, or nationality....We propose a generalized event count model to simultaneously allow for a wide class of count data models and account for over- and underdispersion. This model is successfully applied to German data on fertility, divorces and mobility." (SUMMARY IN FRE)     

A collective model for female labour supply with non-participation and taxation

This paper presents a collective discrete-choice model for female labour supply. Preferences of females and the intra-household allocation process are both econometrically identified. The model incorporates non-participation and non-linear taxation. It is applied to Belgian micro-data and is used to evaluate two revenue-neutral versions of the 2001 Tax Reform Act. We find small positive behavioural responses to the reforms. The reforms are not unambiguously welfare-improving. Generally, the first revenue-neutral reform (the actual reform and a household lump-sum tax) is more beneficial to females in couples than the second (the actual reform and a proportional decrease of household disposable incomes).

Count data models for demographic data∗

Key demographic variables, such as the number of children and the number of marriages or divorces, can only take integer values. This papers deals with the estimation of single equation models in which the counts are regressed on a set of observed individual characteristics such as age, gender, or nationality. Most empirical work in population economics has neglected the fact that the dependent variable is a nonnegative integer. In the few cases where this feature was recognized, the authors advocated the use of the Poisson regression model. The Poisson model imposes, however, the equality of conditional mean and variance, a restriction which is often rejected by the data. We propose a generalized event count model to simultaneously allow for a wide class of count data models and account for over‐ and underdispersion. This model is successfully applied to German data on fertility, divorces and mobility.     

Formal models and methods for the analysis of kinship and household organization

This paper discusses the use of formal models for analyzing kin-group and household organization. The authors begin by presenting a conceptual framework that relates the supply of kin to rules of household formation, demographic constraints, and observed household structure. This framework is used to evaluate an array of techniques and models of kinship and households. Kin relations and household structures can be described using a unifying model designed to identify the dynamic of a system of states out of and into which the units of analysis can move. The behavior of the system is identified through knowledge of transition rates. It is then possible to link such transition rates to coarse indicators of the system, such as proportions occupying a state and distribution of the units by state. Analytic, macro-, and microsimulation models are just alternative ways of linking a state-space and measures of transition rates to final indicators or outcomes. No model can avoid addressing the independence, homogeneity, and time-invariance assumptions, or the 2-sex problem.     

Optimization models for degrouping population data

In certain countries population data are available in grouped form only, usually as quinquennial age groups plus a large open-ended range for the elderly. However, official statistics call for data by individual age since many statistical operations, such as the calculation of demographic indicators, require the use of ungrouped population data. In this paper a number of mathematical models are proposed which, starting from population data given in age groups, enable these ranges to be degrouped into age-specific population values without leaving a fractional part. Unlike other existing procedures for disaggregating demographic data, ours makes it possible to process several years' data simultaneously in a coherent way, and provides accurate results longitudinally as well as transversally. This procedure is also shown to be helpful in dealing with degrouped population data affected by noise, such as those affected by the age-heaping phenomenon.     

The perceived impact of child care costs on women’s labor supply and fertility

In a sample of Detroit-area mothers of preschool-aged children interviewed in 1986, one-third reported that child care problems had constrained their employment. Such reports were relatively prevalent among poor women, those without relatives nearby, and those willing to entrust the care of their children to nonfamily members. Only one-tenth of the sample reported a similar child care constraint on fertility, a phenomenon unrelated to income but relatively prevalent among women with strong labor force attachment. The results suggest that policies to increase the supply of child care or to lower its cost could increase female labor supply by a substantial fraction, with an even greater rise among women most at risk of poverty and reliance on public assistance, but probably would not raise fertility significantly.     

The sectoral labor supply of married couples in Brazil: Testing the unitary model of household behavior

An assumption of the unitary model of household decision-making is that household members maximize one household utility function. This assumption implies that households pool their income and, therefore, the ownership of nonwage income has no effect on household demand. In this paper, this implication is tested by estimating multi-sector labor supply equations for men and women in Brazil. The results indicate that the unitary model is rejected in the informal and self-employment sectors for men and the formal and informal sectors for women; in these cases own nonwage income has a significantly negative effect on labor supply while spousal nonwage income has no significant effect. Received: 29 December 1997/Accepted: 9 December 1998     

Dynamic microeconomic models of fertility choice: a survey

We review existing approaches to the specification and estimation of dynamic microeconomic models of fertility. Dynamic fertility models explain the evolution of fertility variates over the life-cycle as the solution to a dynamic programming model involving economic choices. Dynamic models may be classified into structural and reduced-form models. Structural models generally require solution of the underlying dynamic programming problem. Reduced-form models, while based on a structural specification, do not. Recent innovations in estimation methodologies make both types practical and realistic alternatives to static models of lifetime fertility. JEL classification: J13, C41, C61 Received August 26, 1994/Accepted October 23, 1996     

The influence of the birthplace and models of care on midwifery practice for the management of women in labour

This paper will examine how the settings in which midwives practice (the birthplace) and models of care affect midwives’ decision making during the management of labour. One-hundred-and-four independent, team and hospital based midwives and 100 low obstetric risk nulliparous women to whom labour care was provided were surveyed. These midwives and women resided in the Auckland metropolitan area of New Zealand. The majority of midwives who participated worked in models of care which provided women with continuity of carer and care, however, this was not found to influence the way the midwives provided labour care. Instead, practice was found to be relatively homogenous regardless of whether the midwives worked in independent, team, or hospital-based practice. The birthplace setting in which the labour care took place did influence midwifery practice. The majority of midwives provided labour care in large obstetric hospitals and identified practices dominated by the medical model of care. Practice was described as being influenced by intervention and the need for technology, however, this did not prevent the majority of women from perceiving they were actively involved in the decision making process and that they worked in partnership with their midwives. Closer examination of the midwives’ decision making processes whilst providing the labour care revealed that the midwives’ individual decisions were influenced by the needs of the women rather than the hospital protocols. What became evident was that the midwives in this study had adopted a humanistic approach to care whereby technology was used alongside relationship-centred care.