Optimal tests in AR (m) time series model

In the univariate framework, two problems of testing the nonlinearity are investigated in Hwang and Basawa. The first one is concerned with the testing problem for a nonlinear class contiguous to the AR(1) process. The second one is focused on the testing problem of the ARCH model contiguous to the AR(1) models. In each case, an efficient test of linearity was obtained, the local asymptotic normality (LAN) was proved, an efficient test of linearity was constructed, and the asymptotic power function was derived. All these results were obtained under the assumption where the parameter of the time series model is assumed to be known. In practical situation, this parameter is unspecified and its estimation induces an error that has an impact on the asymptotic limit distribution. A new method for the good evaluation of this error is introduced and investigated in the present article. Consequently, its application allows us to preserve the local asymptotic optimality with the estimated parameter. An extension to testing in class of ARCH models contiguous to p-order autoregressive processes is obtained. The LAN property plays a fundamental role in the present study.     

On influence diagnostics in elliptical multivariate regression models with equicorrelated random errors

In this paper we discuss estimation and diagnostic procedures in elliptical multivariate regression models with equicorrelated random errors. Two procedures are proposed for the parameter estimation and the local influence curvatures are derived under some usual perturbation schemes to assess the sensitivity of the maximum likelihood estimates (MLEs). Two motivating examples preliminarily analyzed under normal errors are reanalyzed considering appropriate elliptical distributions. The local influence approach is used to compare the sensitivity of the model estimates.     

Perturbation diagnostics of autocorrelation coefficients in non linear mixed-effects models with AR(1) errors based on M-estimation

In this work we propose and analyze non linear mixed-effects models for longitudinal data, which are widely used in the fields of economics, biopharmaceuticals, agriculture, and so on. A robust method to obtain maximum likelihood estimates for the parameters is presented, as well as perturbation diagnostics of autocorrelation coefficient in non linear models based on robust estimates and influence curvature. The obtained results are illustrated by plasma concentrations data presented in Davidian and Giltinan, which was analyzed under the non robust situation.     

Relative local influence and the condition number

In this paper we show that the condition number traditionally used by numerical analysts is closely related to a variant of Cook's (1986) absolute measure of local influence. The nature of the assumptions made in our derivation of this result raises several questions concerning the relevance of the traditional condition number as a measure of computational accuracy in statistical studies.     

REGRESSION DIAGNOSTIC USING LOCAL INFLUENCE: A REVIEW

The local influence approach of Cook [1] Cook, R. D. 1986. Assessment of Local Influence. Journal Of The Royal Statistical Society Series B-Methodological, 48: 133–169.  [Google Scholar]to regression diagnostic is developed and discussed, and compared with Cook's [2] Cook, R. D. 1977. Detection of Influential Observations in Linear Regression. Technometrics, 19: 15–18. [Taylor & Francis Online], [Web of Science ®] , [Google Scholar]deletion approach. The ability of the local influence approach to handle cases simultaneously, as well as some of its theoretical and practical difficulties, are reviewed. The perturbation ideas of the approach are applied to the linear model making distinction between the local perturbations on the assumptions of the model and the data.     

Discrimination of AR,MA and ARMA time series models

The problem of discrimination between two stationary ARMA time series models is considered, and in particular AR(p), MA(p), ARMA(1,1) models. The discriminant based on the likelihood ration leads to a quadratic form that is generally too complicated to evaluated explicitly. The discriminant can be expressed approximately as a linear combination of independent chi–squared random varianles each with one degree of freedom, the coefficients, of which are eigenvalues of cumbersome matrices. An analytical solution which gives the coefficients approximately is suggested.     

Heteroscedasticity and/or autocorrelation diagnostics in nonlinear models with AR(1) and symmetrical errors

In this paper, we discuss tests of heteroscedasticity and/or autocorrelation in nonlinear models with AR(1) and symmetrical errors. The symmetrical errors distribution class includes all symmetrical continuous distributions, such as normal, Student-t, power exponential, logistic I and II, contaminated normal, so on. First, score test statistics and their adjustment forms of heteroscedasticity are derived. Then, the asymptotic properties, including asymptotic chi-square and approximate powers under local alternatives of the score tests, are studied. The properties of test statistics are investigated through Monte Carlo simulations. Finally, a real data set is used to illustrate our test methods.     

A note on spurious regression in seasonal time series

This paper considers spurious regression between two different types of seasonal time series: one with a deterministic seasonal component and the other with a stochastic seasonal component. When one type of seasonal time series is regressed on the other type and they are independent of each other, the phenomenon of spurious regression occurs. Asymptotic properties of the regression coefficient estimator and the associated regression ‘t-ratio’ are studied. A Monte Carlo simulation study is conducted to confirm the phenomenon of spurious regression and spurious rejection of seasonal cointegration for finite samples.     

Influence diagnostics in nonlinear reproductive dispersion mixed models

The class of nonlinear reproductive dispersion mixed models (NRDMMs) is an extension of nonlinear reproductive dispersion models and generalized linear mixed models. This paper discusses the influence analysis of the model based on Laplace approximation. The equivalence of case-deletion models and mean-shift outlier models in NRDMMs is investigated, and some diagnostic measures are proposed via the case-deletion method. We also investigate the assessment of local influence of various perturbation schemes. The proposed method is illustrated with an example.     

Detection of outliers in bivariate time series data

In this article, we use the influence function matrix of auto and cross-correlations of a bivariate (multivariate) time series for detecting the outliers. The multivariate analog of the graphical method of Chernick et. al. (1982), to detect outliers and partial outliers is presented. A simulation study illustrating the method is also given.     

On influence diagnostic in univariate elliptical linear regression models

We discuss in this paper the assessment of local influence in univariate elliptical linear regression models. This class includes all symmetric continuous distributions, such as normal, Student-t, Pearson VII, exponential power and logistic, among others. We derive the appropriate matrices for assessing the local influence on the parameter estimates and on predictions by considering as influence measures the likelihood displacement and a distance based on the Pearson residual. Two examples with real data are given for illustration.     

A new class of survival regression models with heavy-tailed errors: robustness and diagnostics

Birnbaum-Saunders models have largely been applied in material fatigue studies and reliability analyses to relate the total time until failure with some type of cumulative damage. In many problems related to the medical field, such as chronic cardiac diseases and different types of cancer, a cumulative damage caused by several risk factors might cause some degradation that leads to a fatigue process. In these cases, BS models can be suitable for describing the propagation lifetime. However, since the cumulative damage is assumed to be normally distributed in the BS distribution, the parameter estimates from this model can be sensitive to outlying observations. In order to attenuate this influence, we present in this paper BS models, in which a Student-t distribution is assumed to explain the cumulative damage. In particular, we show that the maximum likelihood estimates of the Student-t log-BS models attribute smaller weights to outlying observations, which produce robust parameter estimates. Also, some inferential results are presented. In addition, based on local influence and deviance component and martingale-type residuals, a diagnostics analysis is derived. Finally, a motivating example from the medical field is analyzed using log-BS regression models. Since the parameter estimates appear to be very sensitive to outlying and influential observations, the Student-t log-BS regression model should attenuate such influences. The model checking methodologies developed in this paper are used to compare the fitted models.     

Local influence in multivariate regression

The method of local influence is generalized to the multivariate regression. The scheme of perturbations adopted in multivariate regression is similar in spirit to the perturbation of case-weights in univariate regression case. The method developed here is useful for identifying influential observations in multivariate regression as an exploratory or confirmatory data analysis. An illustrative example is given for the effectiveness of the local influence approach in multivariate regression.     

Robust online scale estimation in time series: A model-free approach

This paper presents variance extraction procedures for univariate time series. The volatility of a times series is monitored allowing for non-linearities, jumps and outliers in the level. The volatility is measured using the height of triangles formed by consecutive observations of the time series. This idea was proposed by Rousseeuw and Hubert [1996. Regression-free and robust estimation of scale for bivariate data. Comput. Statist. Data Anal. 21, 67–85] in the bivariate setting. This paper extends their procedure to apply for online scale estimation in time series analysis. The statistical properties of the new methods are derived and finite sample properties are given. A financial and a medical application illustrate the use of the procedures.     

Local influence for incomplete data models

This paper proposes a method to assess the local influence in a minor perturbation of a statistical model with incomplete data. The idea is to utilize Cook's approach to the conditional expectation of the complete-data log-likelihood function in the EM algorithm. It is shown that the method proposed produces analytic results that are very similar to those obtained from a classical local influence approach based on the observed data likelihood function and has the potential to assess a variety of complicated models that cannot be handled by existing methods. An application to the generalized linear mixed model is investigated. Some illustrative artificial and real examples are presented.     

Assessing local influence for elliptical linear models under equality constraints

ABSTRACT

In this article, we study the local influence for the elliptical linear regression model under equality constraints. We first obtain the parameter estimators of this model using the penalized log-likelihood function and iterative techniques. Then we obtain the diagnostics under the perturbations of constant variance, responses, and explanatory variables in the spirit of Cook (1986 Cook, R.D. (1986). Assessment of local influence. J. Royal Stat. Soc. Ser. B 48(2):133–169. [Google Scholar]). Finally, a numerical example on the data set of the salinity of water is given to illustrate the theoretical results.     

Bayesian forecasting for AR(1) models with normal coefficients

This paper presents a Bayesian solution to the problem of time series forecasting, for the case in which the generating process is an autoregressive of order one, with a normal random coefficient. The proposed procedure is based on the predictive density of the future observation. Conjugate priors are used for some parameters, while improper vague priors are used for others.     

Estimation and diagnostics for heteroscedastic nonlinear regression models based on scale mixtures of skew-normal distributions

An extension of some standard likelihood based procedures to heteroscedastic nonlinear regression models under scale mixtures of skew-normal (SMSN) distributions is developed. This novel class of models provides a useful generalization of the heteroscedastic symmetrical nonlinear regression models (Cysneiros et al., 2010), since the random term distributions cover both symmetric as well as asymmetric and heavy-tailed distributions such as skew-t, skew-slash, skew-contaminated normal, among others. A simple EM-type algorithm for iteratively computing maximum likelihood estimates of the parameters is presented and the observed information matrix is derived analytically. In order to examine the performance of the proposed methods, some simulation studies are presented to show the robust aspect of this flexible class against outlying and influential observations and that the maximum likelihood estimates based on the EM-type algorithm do provide good asymptotic properties. Furthermore, local influence measures and the one-step approximations of the estimates in the case-deletion model are obtained. Finally, an illustration of the methodology is given considering a data set previously analyzed under the homoscedastic skew-t nonlinear regression model.     

Bayesian influence diagnostics in radiocarbon dating

Linear models constitute the primary statistical technique for any experimental science. A major topic in this area is the detection of influential subsets of data, that is, of observations that are influential in terms of their effect on the estimation of parameters in linear regression or of the total population parameters. Numerous studies exist on radiocarbon dating which propose a value consensus and remove possible outliers after the corresponding testing. An influence analysis for the value consensus from a Bayesian perspective is developed in this article.     

Influence diagnostics in Gaussian spatial linear models

Spatial linear models have been applied in numerous fields such as agriculture, geoscience and environmental sciences, among many others. Spatial dependence structure modelling, using a geostatistical approach, is an indispensable tool to estimate the parameters that define this structure. However, this estimation may be greatly affected by the presence of atypical observations in the sampled data. The purpose of this paper is to use diagnostic techniques to assess the sensitivity of the maximum-likelihood estimators, covariance functions and linear predictor to small perturbations in the data and/or the spatial linear model assumptions. The methodology is illustrated with two real data sets. The results allowed us to conclude that the presence of atypical values in the sample data have a strong influence on thematic maps, changing the spatial dependence structure.