Construction of blocked two-level regular designs with general minimum lower order confounding

Zhang et al. (2008) proposed a general minimum lower order confounding (GMC for short) criterion, which aims to select optimal factorial designs in a more elaborate and explicit manner. By extending the GMC criterion to the case of blocked designs, Wei et al. (submitted for publication) proposed a B¹-GMC criterion. The present paper gives a construction theory and obtains the B¹-GMC 2^n−m:2^r$2^{n-m}:2^r$ designs with n≥5N/16+1$n\ge 5N/16+1$, where 2^n−m:2^r$2^{n-m}:2^r$ denotes a two-level regular blocked design with N=2^n−m$N=2^{n-m}$ runs, n   treatment factors, and 2^r$2^r$ blocks. The construction result is simple. Up to isomorphism, the B¹-GMC 2^n−m:2^r$2^{n-m}:2^r$ designs can be constructed as follows: the n   treatment factors and the 2^r−1$2^r-1$ block effects are, respectively, assigned to the last n   columns and specific 2^r−1$2^r-1$ columns of the saturated 2^{(N−1)−(N−1−n+m)}$2^{(N-1)-(N-1-n+m)}$ design with Yates order. With such a simple structure, the B¹-GMC designs can be conveniently used in practice. Examples are included to illustrate the theory.     

General minimum lower order confounding designs: An overview and a construction theory

For fractional factorial (FF) designs, Zhang et al. (2008) introduced a new pattern for assessing regular designs, called aliased effect-number pattern (AENP), and based on the AENP, proposed a general minimum lower order confounding (denoted by GMC for short) criterion for selecting design. In this paper, we first have an overview of the existing optimality criteria of FF designs, and then propose a construction theory for 2^n−m$2^{n-m}$ GMC designs with 33N/128≤n≤5N/16$33N/128\le n\le 5N/16$, where N=2^n−m$N=2^{n-m}$ is the run size and n is the number of factors, for all N's and n  's, via the doubling theory and SOS resolution IV designs. The doubling theory is extended with a new approach. By introducing a notion of rechanged (RC) Yates order for the regular saturated design, the construction result turns out to be quite transparent: every GMC 2^n−m$2^{n-m}$ design simply consists of the last n columns of the saturated design with a specific RC Yates order. This can be very conveniently applied in practice.     

Distribution of order statistics from selected subsets of concomitants

For a random sample of size n from an absolutely continuous bivariate population (X, Y), let X_i:n be the i th X-order statistic and Y_[i:n] be its concomitant. We study the joint distribution of (V_s:m, W_t:n−m), where V_s:m is the s th order statistic of the upper subset {Y_[i:n], i=n−m+1,…,n}, and W_t:n−m is the t th order statistic of the lower subset {Y_[j:n], j=1,…,n−m  } of concomitants. When m=⌈_np0⌉$m=\lceil {\mathit{np}}_0\rceil$, s=⌈_mp1⌉$s=\lceil {\mathit{mp}}_1\rceil$, and t=⌈(n−m)_p2⌉$t=\lceil (n-m)p_2\rceil$, 0<_pi<1,i=0,1,2$0<p_i<1,i=0,1,2$, and n→∞$n\to \infty$, we show that the joint distribution is asymptotically bivariate normal and establish the rate of convergence. We propose second order approximations to the joint and marginal distributions with significantly better performance for the bivariate normal and Farlie–Gumbel bivariate exponential parents, even for moderate sample sizes. We discuss implications of our findings to data-snooping and selection problems.     

On the maximum of periodic integer-valued sequences with exponential type tails via max-semistable laws

In this work we study the limiting distribution of the maximum term of periodic integer-valued sequences with marginal distribution belonging to a particular class where the tail decays exponentially. This class does not belong to the domain of attraction of any max-stable distribution. Nevertheless, we prove that the limiting distribution is max-semistable when we consider the maximum of the first k_n observations, for a suitable sequence {_kn}$\{k_n\}$ increasing to infinity. We obtain an expression for calculating the extremal index of sequences satisfying certain local conditions similar to conditions D^(m)(_un)$D^{(m)}(u_n)$, m∈N$m\in \mathbb{N}$, defined by Chernick et al. (1991). We apply the results to a class of max-autoregressive sequences and a class of moving average models. The results generalize the ones obtained for the stationary case.     

Bayesian D-optimal supersaturated designs

We introduce a new class of supersaturated designs using Bayesian D-optimality. The designs generated using this approach can have arbitrary sample sizes, can have any number of blocks of any size, and can incorporate categorical factors with more than two levels. In side by side diagnostic comparisons based on the E(s²)$E(s^2)$ criterion for two-level experiments having even sample size, our designs either match or out-perform the best designs published to date. The generality of the method is illustrated with quality improvement experiment with 15 runs and 20 factors in 3 blocks.     

On E(s)-optimal supersaturated designs

A popular measure to assess 2-level supersaturated designs is the E(s²)$E(s^2)$ criterion. In this paper, improved lower bounds on E(s²)$E(s^2)$ are obtained. The same improvement has recently been established by Ryan and Bulutoglu [2007. E(s²)$E(s^2)$-optimal supersaturated designs with good minimax properties. J. Statist. Plann. Inference 137, 2250–2262]. However, our analysis provides more details on precisely when an improvement is possible, which is lacking in Ryan and Bulutoglu [2007. E(s²)$E(s^2)$-optimal supersaturated designs with good minimax properties. J. Statist. Plann. Inference 137, 2250–2262]. The equivalence of the bounds obtained by Butler et al. [2001. A general method of constructing E(s²)$E(s^2)$-optimal supersaturated designs. J. Roy. Statist. Soc. B 63, 621–632] (in the cases where their result applies) and those obtained by Bulutoglu and Cheng [2004. Construction of E(s²)$E(s^2)$-optimal supersaturated designs. Ann. Statist. 32, 1662–1678] is established. We also give two simple methods of constructing E(s²)$E(s^2)$-optimal designs.     

Lattice and Schröder paths with periodic boundaries

We consider paths in the plane with (1,0$1,0$), (0,1$0,1$), and (a,b$a,b$)-steps that start at the origin, end at height n$n$, and stay strictly to the left of a given non-decreasing right boundary. We show that if the boundary is periodic and has slope at most b/a$b/a$, then the ordinary generating function for the number of such paths ending at height n   is algebraic. Our argument is in two parts. We use a simple combinatorial decomposition to obtain an Appell relation or “umbral” generating function, in which the power zⁿ$z^n$ is replaced by a power series of the form zⁿ_φn(z),$z^n{\phi }_n(z),$ where _φn(0)=1.${\phi }_n(0)=1.$ Then we convert (in an explicit way) the umbral generating function to an ordinary generating function by solving a system of linear equations and a polynomial equation. This conversion implies that the ordinary generating function is algebraic. We give several concrete examples, including an alternative way to solve the tennis ball problem.     

Berry–Esseen type bounds for trimmed U-statistics

Trimmed U  -statistics can be constructed in two different ways: by basing the statistic on a trimmed sample or by averaging the trimmed set of kernel values. Mild conditions are given to ensure the rate of convergence to normality is O(n^-1/2)$\mathrm{O}(n^{-1/2})$ in both cases.     

Tabu search for covering arrays using permutation vectors

A covering array  CA(N;t,k,v)$\mathsf{CA}(N;t,k,v)$ is an N×k$N\times k$ array, in which in every N×t$N\times t$ subarray, each of the v^t$v^t$ possible t  -tuples over v$v$ symbols occurs at least once. The parameter t is the strength   of the array. Covering arrays have a wide range of applications for experimental screening designs, particularly for software interaction testing. A compact representation of certain covering arrays employs “permutation vectors” to encode v^t×1$v^t\times 1$ subarrays of the covering array so that a covering perfect hash family whose entries correspond to permutation vectors yields a covering array. We introduce a method for effective search for covering arrays of this type using tabu search. Using this technique, improved covering arrays of strength 3, 4 and 5 have been found, as well as the first arrays of strength 6 and 7 found by computational search.     

On parameter estimation for locally stationary long-memory processes

We consider parameter estimation for time-dependent locally stationary long-memory processes. The asymptotic distribution of an estimator based on the local infinite autoregressive representation is derived, and asymptotic formulas for the mean squared error of the estimator, and the asymptotically optimal bandwidth are obtained. In spite of long memory, the optimal bandwidth turns out to be of the order n^-1/5$n^{-1/5}$ and inversely proportional to the square of the second derivative of d. In this sense, local estimation of d is comparable to regression smoothing with iid residuals.     

Orthogonal arrays for estimating global sensitivity indices of non-parametric models based on ANOVA high-dimensional model representation

Global sensitivity indices play important roles in global sensitivity analysis based on ANOVA high-dimensional model representation. However, few effective methods are available for the estimation of the indices when the objective function is a non-parametric model. In this paper, we explore the estimation of global sensitivity indices of non-parametric models. The main result (Theorem 2.1) shows that orthogonal arrays (OAs) are A-optimality designs for the estimation of _ΘM,${\Theta }_M,$ the definition of which can be seen in Section 1. Estimators of global sensitivity indices are proposed based on orthogonal arrays and proved to be accurate for small indices. The performance of the estimators is illustrated by a simulation study.     

Run orders for efficient two level experimental plans with minimum factor level changes robust to time trends

In this paper we construct run orders of orthogonal arrays with 12≤n≤28$12\le n\le 28$ runs and 4≤q≤6$4\le q\le 6$ factors that minimize the number of level changes of each factor. The corresponding orthogonal arrays can estimate a model with all main effects and their two factor interactions with the highest efficiency and also provide estimates of all main effects that are independent of linear and quadratic time (or position) trends. Some alternative efficient run orders are also presented when the estimation of two factor interactions is of experimental interest.     

Constrained Bayes and empirical Bayes estimation under random effects normal ANOVA model with balanced loss function

The paper develops constrained Bayes and empirical Bayes estimators in the random effects ANOVA model under balanced loss functions. In the balanced normal–normal model, estimators of the Bayes risks of the constrained Bayes and constrained empirical Bayes estimators are provided which are correct asymptotically up to O(m^-1)$\mathrm{O}(m^{-1})$, that is the remainder term is o(m^-1)$\mathrm{o}(m^{-1})$, m$m$ denoting the number of strata.     

Sharp upper bounds for the expected values of non-extreme order statistics from discrete distributions

We consider the problem of determining sharp upper bounds on the expected values of non-extreme order statistics based on i.i.d. random variables taking on N values at most. We show that the bound problem is equivalent to the problem of establishing the best approximation of the projection of the density function of the respective order statistic based on the standard uniform i.i.d. sample onto the family of non-decreasing functions by arbitrary N  -valued functions in the norm of L²(0,1)$L^2(0,1)$ space. We also present an algorithm converging to the local minima of the approximation problems.     

Rates of convergence for the k-nearest neighbor estimators with smoother regression functions

Let (X, Y  ) be a R^d×R-valued${\mathbb{R}}^d\times \mathbb{R}\mathrm{-}\mathrm{valued}$ random vector. In regression analysis one wants to estimate the regression function m(x)?E(Y|X=x)$m(x)?\mathbf{E}(Y|X=x)$ from a data set. In this paper we consider the rate of convergence for the k-nearest neighbor estimators in case that X   is uniformly distributed on [0,1]^d$[\mathrm{0,1}{]}^d$, Var(Y|X=x)$\mathbf{Var}(Y|X=x)$ is bounded, and m is (p, C)-smooth. It is an open problem whether the optimal rate can be achieved by a k  -nearest neighbor estimator for 1<p≤1.5$1<p\le 1.5$. We solve the problem affirmatively. This is the main result of this paper. Throughout this paper, we assume that the data is independent and identically distributed and as an error criterion we use the expected L₂ error.